Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

MadMarketScientist

Day Trading the E-mini Futures with Predictor

Recommended Posts

Boehner... no progress made

 

Market is in range we are look for OF reversal.. I'm bid 9.25

 

--

Entered market.... look for drive higher now

 

wow, you did well to enter at 9.25, how did you manage that.

What did your low print as around 11:02

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I've exited at 14.25.... When I say 'entered market' or went to market it means I entered market order. If I say bid or offered it meant I have a resting limit order.

 

Also the time stamps don't matter on these messages because I go back and edit them. I do this because the minimum message length rule.

 

Of course, the messages here are delayed. Often I will have a bid and be reading tape at the same time... if we take out an order book imbalance or I feel we can drive higher then sometimes I'll go to market.. its a riskier trade but often works well.

 

My software and ability to see the OB and OF imbalances I feel is an edge for me.. Levels came spot in today too (just by chance -- as I said they aren't all that accurate but still more accurate then any published levels). One feature I really liked today was ability to paint an area.... I paint the high zone red and then the low zone blue.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

One theme we are seeing repeated is that techs, traditionally a leader, are weaker. We've seen this for a few days now. This may be an important theme. It may indicate that the market is rallying on relief of various fears but that outlook for tech is poor. If outlook for tech is poor then that raises a question in my mind...

 

At this point, I've soundly exceeded my profit targets and don't anticipate to be taking any more trades.

 

The market is fairly 2-sided right now... most of the order flow is buying but there is heavy limit order supply exhausting this order flow so far.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Thanks.. this was a 1 shot.. after we cross 20 I considered that the market might be outside my range/abnormal. In these situations, you have to protect yourself.. I've tried this before, took a small stop, and came back the market was 20 points higher.

 

for whatever reason my posts are slow to appear.

 

great job calling that s&p short. i have 2 mini dows on averaged at 13115. playing small ball today looking for a return to the hourly pivot of 13045. I'm stopped at BE+1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Thanks.. this was a 1 shot.. after we cross 20 I considered that the market might be outside my range/abnormal. In these situations, you have to protect yourself.. I've tried this before, took a small stop, and came back the market was 20 points higher.

 

I got whipped around, stopped at BE. Then put them back on a bit lower when Boehner started flapping his mouth and walked away with a very modest $200 loss entirely due to breaking my #1 rule: never, ever, EVER jump in without a trade trigger. Life has no absolutes. Except that. It's one thing to trade and be wrong -- I'm ok with that; being wrong is inevitable. Its entirely another to jump in without a signal. I might as have wiped my rear with a few c notes today :doh:

 

All in all, c'est la vie. the above diatribe is my one terrible bad habit of a spreader trying to trade outright contracts. there are trading rules for each strategy (calendar/butterflies vs outright) that do NOT overlap. glad all is well today on your end. monday is a new day!

Edited by rtg
clarity

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
rtg... everyone has to trade according to own rules. I'm interested in spread trading. What do you spread? Any day trading opportunities in your spreads?

 

i do calendar and butterfly spreads on corn

 

i am long 100 dec/mar contracts. typically, i will walk away from thanksgiving - new years day simply because it is so squirrelly but there was a nice dip possibly from institutional investors at close on nov 29th and i got fills as it closed. typically, its a position game over weeks or months based (almost entirely) on fundamentals of the plant/harvest cycle, import/exports and perception of conditions , weather, etc. its a completely different animal from the politics and technical trading on the outrights right now

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

rtg: Your basis is seasonal?

 

I'm weighing if I could be wrong... strong OF buying came in after I made that call. But, it was unable to drive price to new high. I'll probably adjust/pull in my target.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
rtg: Your basis is seasonal?

 

absolutely. it all depends on the previously mentioned conditions and those conditions can change quickly! it is largely a fundemental game of yield per acre, import/export supply/demand. rhetorically, things like: will the russians stop exports until price hits a certain level, how will argentina respond to tight supplies in the US, ethanol production, etc etc. there is more to it than that, obviously, but that is the general idea of the fundies involved.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Sounds like a specialized game. I'm interested in futures spreads. But, I'm more interested in whether/how-to it would be possible to model spreads that are mean reverting and can be traded intraday, somewhat like a vertical options spread.

 

What I'd really like to do is to trade inside a vertical spread... i.e to be able to trade like a futures but have my risk at the extents bounded. NADEX offers the closest thing to what I'm describing but they aren't as efficient as trading the ES for me. If they could improve that efficiency then I'd take a look at them again..

 

 

absolutely. it all depends on the previously mentioned conditions and those conditions can change quickly! it is largely a fundemental game of yield per acre, import/export supply/demand. rhetorically, things like: will the russians stop exports until price hits a certain level, how will argentina respond to tight supplies in the US, ethanol production, etc etc. there is more to it than that, obviously, but that is the general idea of the fundies involved.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

For those following me, what we seen in this case was a strong negative order flow and limit orders took all that supply. I feel the flow was institutional/algorithmic but it wasn't enough to drive the market to new lows. If the sellers aren't able to drive price to new lows then they must cover. This is why I take an agnostic approach to order flow. I'm looking for the patterns in terms of the current context. What makes trading difficult is that any indicator you take that works well in a range market will fail in a trending market and vice versa.. All the rules just reverse.

 

I never had more then 1 tick F.E in that trade which was a warning but there were several times when it seemed like it could work. My goal is to use my read to guide me. So, I'd rather exit on my read then take the stop hit. In this case, I pulled my stop in and lost about 2 ticks more then I should have. But, it was a close call and I didn't lose the maximum.

 

One of the ideas on my mind, beyond the order flow and book imbalances, was this consumer credit report coming out and the negative sentiment report: I thought that traders might connect the two. Apparently.. jobs report trumps all.

 

Sellers have shown a new response from 17.. If you recall 16-20 is the sell range for the day. Worth to consider if the day structure is setting up as a trend day.. in which case we could close in that region

Edited by Predictor

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

These are my levels/estimates for highs and lows over the next 24 hours-- for anyone following along. Market is currently at 1416. I'm not tracking or trading it now.

 

H2: 1424

H1: 1420

L: 1414

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The low proj. has held over night but looks to be tested. If we get a runner to downside then 14 could become resistance. My game plan is to look for a weakness off the open followed by a bounce. I'm not anticipating significant range extension to downside but do anticipate general weakness.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Very strong drive off open... if I can't get long near 14 then I'll will be looking for a short off the 20

---

Long off the 15.75

----

Out at around 17.50....

 

Still anticipating range bound structure... will look for shorts in the 20 region

---

Short at market.. bad fill

Edited by Predictor

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Cleared the short... added at the highs. I've approximately met my profit target today and will be slowing down. May be DFD...

----

 

What's interesting to note is that at 19.00 we had nearly 3x as much buying as selling but the market moved away. I call this Limit Resistance. In this case, it wasn't seen in the book imbalances but this high volume is indicative of a replenishing offer. Often, the market reverses from high volume because such volume is created by limit order traders exhausting the market order supply.

 

This is why the levels are a help because apparently some large speculators are also able to anticipate where the highs and lows are and use those areas to exit trades. Often they'll use a replenishing offer/bid to get as much as possible and then go to market to get the rest.

Edited by Predictor

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Market looks to be getting weaker here... a retest of 14 seems possible.

 

----

 

Short again.. looking for drive lower from this area.

---

 

Tremendous buying programs went off... looks like sellers in at the 20.50

Edited by Predictor

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Topics

  • Posts

    • Be careful who you blame.   I can tell you one thing for sure.   Effective traders don’t blame others when things start to go wrong.   You can hang onto your tendency to play the victim, or the martyr… but if you want to achieve in trading, you have to be prepared to take responsibility.   People assign reasons to outcomes, whether based on internal or external factors.   When traders face losses, it's common for them to blame bad luck, poor advice, or other external factors, rather than reflecting on their own personal attributes like arrogance, fear, or greed.   This is a challenging lesson to grasp in your trading journey, but one that holds immense value.   This is called attribution theory. Taking responsibility for your actions is the key to improving your trading skills. Pause and ask yourself - What role did I play in my financial decisions?   After all, you were the one who listened to that source, and decided to act on that trade based on the rumour. Attributing results solely to external circumstances is what is known as having an ‘external locus of control’.   It's a concept coined by psychologist Julian Rotter in 1954. A trader with an external locus of control might say, "I made a profit because the markets are currently favourable."   Instead, strive to develop an "internal locus of control" and take ownership of your actions.   Assume that all trading results are within your realm of responsibility and actively seek ways to improve your own behaviour.   This is the fastest route to enhancing your trading abilities. A trader with an internal locus of control might proudly state, "My equity curve is rising because I am a disciplined trader who faithfully follows my trading plan." Author: Louise Bedford Source: https://www.tradinggame.com.au/
    • SELF IMPROVEMENT.   The whole self-help industry began when Dale Carnegie published How to Win Friends and Influence People in 1936. Then came other classics like Think And Grow Rich by Napoleon Hill, Awaken the Giant Within by Tony Robbins toward the end of the century.   Today, teaching people how to improve themselves is a business. A pure ruthless business where some people sell utter bullshit.   There are broke Instagrammers and YouTubers with literally no solid background teaching men how to be attractive to women, how to begin a start-up, how to become successful — most of these guys speaking nothing more than hollow motivational words and cliche stuff. They waste your time. Some of these people who present themselves as hugely successful also give talks and write books.   There are so many books on financial advice, self-improvement, love, etc and some people actually try to read them. They are a waste of time, mostly.   When you start reading a dozen books on finance you realize that they all say the same stuff.   You are not going to live forever in the learning phase. Don't procrastinate by reading bull-shit or the same good knowledge in 10 books. What we ought to do is choose wisely.   Yes. A good book can change your life, given you do what it asks you to do.   All the books I have named up to now are worthy of reading. Tim Ferriss, Simon Sinek, Robert Greene — these guys are worthy of reading. These guys teach what others don't. Their books are unique and actually, come from relevant and successful people.   When Richard Branson writes a book about entrepreneurship, go read it. Every line in that book is said by one of the greatest entrepreneurs of our time.   When a Chinese millionaire( he claims to be) Youtuber who releases a video titled “Why reading books keeps you broke” and a year later another one “My recommendation of books for grand success” you should be wise to tell him to jump from Victoria Falls.   These self-improvement gurus sell you delusions.   They say they have those little tricks that only they know that if you use, everything in your life will be perfect. Those little tricks. We are just “making of a to-do-list before sleeping” away from becoming the next Bill Gates.   There are no little tricks.   There is no success-mantra.   Self-improvement is a trap for 99% of the people. You can't do that unless you are very, very strong.   If you are looking for easy ways, you will only keep wasting your time forgetting that your time on this planet is limited, as alive humans that is.   Also, I feel that people who claim to read like a book a day or promote it are idiots. You retain nothing. When you do read a good book, you read slow, sometimes a whole paragraph, again and again, dwelling on it, trying to internalize its knowledge. You try to understand. You think. It takes time.   It's better to read a good book 10 times than 1000 stupid ones.   So be choosy. Read from the guys who actually know something, not some wannabe ‘influencers’.   Edit: Think And Grow Rich was written as a result of a project assigned to Napoleon Hill by Andrew Carnegie(the 2nd richest man in recent history). He was asked to study the most successful people on the planet and document which characteristics made them great. He did extensive work in studying hundreds of the most successful people of that time. The result was that little book.   Nowadays some people just study Instagram algorithms and think of themselves as a Dale Carnegie or Anthony Robbins. By Nupur Nishant, Quora Profits from free accurate cryptos signals: https://www.predictmag.com/    
    • there is no avoiding loses to be honest, its just how the market is. you win some and hopefully more, but u do lose some. 
    • $CSCO Cisco Systems stock, nice top of range breakout, from Stocks to Watch at https://stockconsultant.com/?CSCOSEPN Septerna stock watch for a bottom breakout, good upside price gap
    • $CSCO Cisco Systems stock, nice top of range breakout, from Stocks to Watch at https://stockconsultant.com/?CSCOSEPN Septerna stock watch for a bottom breakout, good upside price gap
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.