Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

MDS37RB

Great on Paper - Not with Real Money

Recommended Posts

Loads of people seem to knock sim trading, but I think it is essential to get everything down as much as possible before going live. Maybe its a mindset thing, but when trading sim in the past I treated it as a live account 100%. If you have thoughts during a bad trade of "I can just reset" or "oh well, a bad trade, never mind" then you are not trading sim properly. sim trading is not just about execution, it should be psychological training as well.

 

Firstly you say that you are ok in sim. Do you mean that your are in profit? that's not entirely relevant. Have you analyzed your performance correctly. Are you are in profit because you've had a few big winners? how many trades have you had? what's your average loss / winner? biggest winner vs biggest loser? risk reward ratio? win rate? what's your sharpe ratio? mae? mfe? etc. Ultimately what is your expectancy number. You must know your number.

 

If you know the answers for all of these. That you know your set ups inside out. That there is no ambiguity when taking a trade. That you review your journal and create actionable items for your strengths and weaknesses. That you are clear of purpose and confident in ability, then perhaps it's a psychological hurdle.

 

You can try and emulate pressure of a live account in sim. I assume you journal. Make your sim trades public. Even now as a full time live trader I tweet what I'm doing throughout my trading session and I use a twitter hash tag to collate all my entries for the day, which I use to journal. You don't have to use twitter, create a thread on a forum and post all your thoughts, trades etc.

You can also try and video your trades using something like camtasia. watch them back during post-analysis. You will get many "What was I thinking?!" moments. In early stages this is normal as live trading and hindsight are out of sync due to lack of intuition. Experience helps to make you "see" clearer in real time.

Basically you need to find any method that will make you feel accountable, sim or not.

 

I'm not sure 8 months is enough time to become an intuitive trader, which is absolutely necessary to become consistently profitable. Similar to learning how to drive. In the beginning you really have to concentrate to be in control of the steering wheel, indicators, gears, brakes...and then after a few years you can drive somewhere and when you get there you don't really remember the act of driving. You were on auto-pilot. Becoming an intuitive trader is only achieved by putting the hours in, recognizing and correcting your mistakes, enhancing your strengths, increasing humility and reducing ego. The less anxiety you feel, the closer you are to the end goal.

 

Once I went live that was it. I'm not sure I could go ever go back to sim. However I would think that if I ever had to, I would revisit sim with a live trading mindset. No messing around. Not sure if there are any traders on here who have done just that. If so, maybe they could offer on a perspective of how they treated sim first time around, before live trading and then how they viewed sim after trading live.

 

Not sure if what I have offered helps you at all, but good luck!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
You have GOT to be kidding right? Ever get into a CL trade and find yourself on the wrong side of a spike against you 50 - 100 ticks? Happens often in CL - NEVER in ES.

 

Or SILVER the most lethal ball buster of them all.

 

Maybe you got them reversed?

 

Sorry, I've been trading CL for over 10 years and I've never experienced those 50 to 100 ticks spikes those of you that trade time based charts experience. I strictly use volume based charting.

 

That being said, in the last 12 years I've seen spikes in the ES as well, on time based charts, though not the range that the CL generates. Time based charts are a problem on there own due to news and other events creating unmanageable volume spikes in the market.

 

I've attached a couple charts for comparison. The first is a 5 minute chart that shows how a Crude report creates a nasty spike after its release. You can also see on the 5 minute chart that open to close there was no discernible difference in price. The second chart is the same day but is show using a constant volume based chart. No spikes just a steady smooth flow of readable momentum. Same range but a more safe and readable area for extracting profit.

5aa711d0da663_MarchCrude02-29-125MinuteChart.thumb.png.c03cccce2de309bfb07454bc1f07eb57.png

5aa711d0e2121_CLJ2987022912.thumb.png.ebf01391b4d24e140718b4334db6af73.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Sorry, I've been trading CL for over 10 years and I've never experienced those 50 to 100 ticks spikes those of you that trade time based charts experience....

 

Don't get me wrong. I am NOT saying that CL is not a great tradable instrument, But to suggest that it is "safer" than the emini's is, in my opinion, ludicrous.

 

I use a 4-6 tick stop successfully ES risking $50 - $75 per contract. In CL .. basically anybody who trade sit will agree that you need a min 10 and most likely 15 min tick stop risking $150 per contract.

 

If it were safer it would carry a lot smaller margin - but the margin is at least DOUBLE the ES. I guess the orginal poster I was replying to figures that the CME doesn't know how to set margin - or why?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Don't get me wrong. I am NOT saying that CL is not a great tradable instrument, But to suggest that it is "safer" than the emini's is, in my opinion, ludicrous.

 

I use a 4-6 tick stop successfully ES risking $50 - $75 per contract. In CL .. basically anybody who trade sit will agree that you need a min 10 and most likely 15 min tick stop risking $150 per contract.

 

If it were safer it would carry a lot smaller margin - but the margin is at least DOUBLE the ES. I guess the orginal poster I was replying to figures that the CME doesn't know how to set margin - or why?

 

In my environment, volume based charting, CL provides us a better win rate, less draw down, larger daily range, tighter stop placement (3 to 5 ticks) and more profit per trade than any of the Indices. To us, these equate to a safer trading environment.

 

I can see if you are trading the ES using time charts and the parameters you listed, then that is best for you but not everyone.

 

There are plenty of markets to trade and all kinds of systems and methods. This is what makes this such a great business.

 

Me, a data scientist, researcher and trader with going on 20 years of precise experience of charting and earning a living in this environment (with no experience in chemical engineering) telling JM Eagle how to improve their manufacturing of plastic pipes . . . now that is ludicrous. ;-)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
You have GOT to be kidding right? Ever get into a CL trade and find yourself on the wrong side of a spike against you 50 - 100 ticks? Happens often in CL - NEVER in ES.

 

Or SILVER the most lethal ball buster of them all.

 

Maybe you got them reversed?

 

Oil spikes, and there is slippage, but I have never experienced more than 8-10 ticks even during the volatile days of the arab spring (good times).

 

Silver got me good for about 15 ticks and that was the last time I traded it. I don't know if there are bigger in silver. F silver.

 

The spikes you see do have bids and offers occurring so you won't find yourself without a bid or offer in 50 to 100 ticks of either. Is that what you mean?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Great on Paper - Not with Real Money

 

2 Ways to cure it:

- make your trading more mechanic so that it's not up to your feelings how much to trade and when to exit but it's up to your method, developed and backtested and which you trust.

- as a (long time ago) great trader suggested, a good idea is to NEVER trade virtual money, it's so different than real money that it actually has no value. I don't completely agree but if you have some extra money to lose it can be tried.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Great on Paper - Not with Real Money

 

2 Ways to cure it:

- make your trading more mechanic so that it's not up to your feelings how much to trade and when to exit but it's up to your method, developed and backtested and which you trust.

- as a (long time ago) great trader suggested, a good idea is to NEVER trade virtual money, it's so different than real money that it actually has no value. I don't completely agree but if you have some extra money to lose it can be tried.

 

Ah, the long time ago great trader again. Another long time ago great trader said that anybody who puts down real money without having the least idea whether or not his strategy -- if any -- holds water could save himself a lot of time by putting all his money into a big pile and setting it on fire.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If you’re really going to embody - > “Be more prepared than the challenges you will face” then sim has EXTREMELY limited benefits.

Get real… BEFORE the markets force you to get real...

 

For all but a few, sim = how to train yourself to be a non survivor.

 

Before you have developed genuine resilience and toughness, sim is ‘undertraining’.

After you have developed some resilience and toughness, then sim has a viable, but still limited, function.

 

jmo... not expecting to change the minds of the 80% pack that disagrees ... but maybe help one trader move out of the pack... and get real

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

More Get Real (which 78.6% will find a way to disagree with...)

 

... as a (long time ago) great trader suggested, a good idea is to NEVER trade virtual money, it's so different than real money that it actually has no value. .

 

re: that “(long time ago) great trader”

With broad strokes - instead of lingering with you to discuss the pro’s and con’s of real vs sim, I’d bet that “(long time ago) great trader” was quickly getting ready to steer the conversation context back to proper capitalization and sizing when developing (and testing) a method or strategy …

Said another way, sim will never come close to the compensation for undercapitalization that the big pack of losers come in wishing it would be.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

...

 

 

 

 

 

Yes, you would probably be better off not putting all your money into a big pile and setting it on fire.

And just as true - for all but a few - if you have a need to ‘ease yourself in’ to this game via pretend, you would probably be better off not trying out at all…

 

 

 

 

 

...

 

 

Re: developing viable” strategies” .

Build it dry, then get it wet

Yes ... It can be done, but it’s best not to try to build a boat while already going down the river …

Yes... It can be done, but it’s also best not to develop “the least idea” of a strategy that “holds water (in or out)” (and evolve beyond basic prototypes) from ‘in(side)' live stream charts.

 

Once designed and prototyped, then find out if what you have developed and built 'floats' (or not) in the real world, not in a simulator.

And, note, most subsequent and significant improvements on your designs will unfold from experiences in ‘real water’ not from fkn algorquations or sim tunnels/chambers/modules. See How a Boat-Plane Hybrid Shattered the Sound Barrier of Sailing | Autopia | Wired.com for a ‘physics’ example. (and btw, don’t get sidetracked in ‘the realm of form’ here … yes...trading is not physics, yada yada – ie what we’re talking about here is the manifestation of ideas.)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I didn't post very often in the past few months (in fact I didn't post at all eheheheh).

Btw, just my two cents: go mechanical, 100% mechanical, and possibly stay out of reach of your keyboard. If you feel tempted of changing every parameter you just included in your strategy, let the machine do all the work and stay away.

(of course this will expose you to many other risks, like bad executions, software/power failure and so on... but this is another story).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

OP - you can read over and over, many posters telling you to have a rules based system. It IS REQUIRED. You have trading rules that are objective, possibly programmable, then you can verify or disprove that your approach is mathematically profitable. Once you know your Win Rate and Reward to Risk numbers over 100 trades (generally, more is better, dep. on your system random periods tested over time is better) - you can run Monte Carlos to see that you have a good chance of making money with those numbers or not..

 

That part is 'having an edge'

 

You can STILL have the problems you described even when you have an edge! Its in your head ---- THE ONE THING UNMENTIONED THUS FAR IS REVIEW ---

Reviewing your actual trades and comparing this with your rules can reveal, especially when starting out or returning after a break, that you may have thought you were following your system when in fact your behavior was ... something else. Its crazy and illuminating - we can know what to do and do something else (and feel like we were doing the thing we were supposed to)... or something like that. Anyway - Review your trades, make sure they line up with your rules based approach. Get a rules based approach if you don't have one.

Peace

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
OP - you can read over and over, many posters telling you to have a rules based system. It IS REQUIRED. You have trading rules that are objective, possibly programmable, then you can verify or disprove that your approach is mathematically profitable. Once you know your Win Rate and Reward to Risk numbers over 100 trades (generally, more is better, dep. on your system random periods tested over time is better) - you can run Monte Carlos to see that you have a good chance of making money with those numbers or not..

 

That part is 'having an edge'

 

You can STILL have the problems you described even when you have an edge! Its in your head ---- THE ONE THING UNMENTIONED THUS FAR IS REVIEW ---

Reviewing your actual trades and comparing this with your rules can reveal, especially when starting out or returning after a break, that you may have thought you were following your system when in fact your behavior was ... something else. Its crazy and illuminating - we can know what to do and do something else (and feel like we were doing the thing we were supposed to)... or something like that. Anyway - Review your trades, make sure they line up with your rules based approach. Get a rules based approach if you don't have one.

Peace

 

Since the OP has made only one post, and that was six months ago, we are all most likely just talking to ourselves. But his central problem is contained in this sentence: " I learned a price action method for day trading the e-minis a few weeks ago." If one buys or borrows or steals somebody else's system, he will either quickly or eventually have problems. If he doesn't develop the system (or method or whatever) himself, he won't completely trust it. If he doesn't trust it, he will second-guess it, he won't take the signals, he will wander off into the weeds and into blind alleys. Typically he will complain that the system "doesn't work". And then he'll move on to another system that he had no part in developing. And another. And another.

 

How does one develop his own system? The Trading Journal (more).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Topics

  • Posts

    • Date: 11th July 2025.   Demand For Gold Rises As Trump Announces Tariffs!   Gold prices rose significantly throughout the week as investors took advantage of the 2.50% lower entry level. Investors also return to the safe-haven asset as the US trade policy continues to escalate. As a result, investors are taking a more dovish tone. The ‘risk-off’ appetite is also something which can be seen within the stock market. The NASDAQ on Thursday took a 0.90% dive within only 30 minutes.   Trade Tensions Escalate President Trump has been teasing with new tariffs throughout the week. However, the tariffs were confirmed on Thursday. A 35% tariff on Canadian imports starting August 1st, along with 50% tariffs on copper and goods from Brazil. Some experts are advising that Brazil has been specifically targeted due to its association with the BRICS.   However, the President has not directly associated the tariffs with BRICS yet. According to President Trump, Brazil is targeting US technology companies and carrying out a ‘witch hunt’against former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, a close ally who is currently facing prosecution for allegedly attempting to overturn the 2022 Brazilian election.   Although Brazil is one of the largest and fastest-growing economies in the Americas, it is not the main concern for investors. Investors are more concerned about Tariffs on Canada. The White House said it will impose a 35% tariff on Canadian imports, effective August 1st, raised from the earlier 25% rate. This covers most goods, with exceptions under USMCA and exemptions for Canadian companies producing within the US.   It is also vital for investors to note that Canada is among the US;’s top 3 trading partners. The increase was justified by Trump citing issues like the trade deficit, Canada’s handling of fentanyl trafficking, and perceived unfair trade practices.   The President is also threatening new measures against the EU. These moves caused US and European stock futures to fall nearly 1%, while the Dollar rose and commodity prices saw small gains. However, the main benefactor was Silver and Gold, which are the two best-performing metals of the day.   How Will The Fed Impact Gold? The FOMC indicated that the number of members warming up to the idea of interest rate cuts is increasing. If the Fed takes a dovish tone, the price of Gold may further rise. In the meantime, the President pushing for a 3% rate cut sparked talk of a more dovish Fed nominee next year and raised worries about future inflation.   Meanwhile, jobless claims dropped for the fourth straight week, coming in better than expected and supporting the view that the labour market remains strong after last week’s solid payroll report. Markets still expect two rate cuts this year, but rate futures show most investors see no change at the next Fed meeting. Gold is expected to finish the week mostly flat.       Gold 15-Minute Chart     If the price of Gold increases above $3,337.50, buy signals are likely to materialise again. However, the price is currently retracing, meaning traders are likely to wait for regained momentum before entering further buy trades. According to HSBC, they expect an average price of $3,215 in 2025 (up from $3,015) and $3,125 in 2026, with projections showing a volatile range between $3,100 and $3,600   Key Takeaway Points: Gold Rises on Safe-Haven Demand. Gold gained as investors reacted to rising trade tensions and market volatility. Canada Tariffs Spark Concern. A 35% tariff on Canadian imports drew attention due to Canada’s key trade role. Fed Dovish Shift Supports Gold. Growing expectations of rate cuts and Trump’s push for a 3% cut boosted the gold outlook. Gold Eyes Breakout Above $3,337.5. Price is consolidating; a move above $3,337.50 could trigger new buy signals. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.   Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.   Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.   Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!   Click HERE to READ more Market news.   Michalis Efthymiou HFMarkets   Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • Back in the early 2000s, Netflix mailed DVDs to subscribers.   It wasn’t sexy—but it was smart. No late fees. No driving to Blockbuster.   People subscribed because they were lazy. Investors bought the stock because they realized everyone else is lazy too.   Those who saw the future in that red envelope? They could’ve caught a 10,000%+ move.   Another story…   Back in the mid-2000s, Amazon launched Prime.   It wasn’t flashy—but it was fast.   Free two-day shipping. No minimums. No hassle.   People subscribed because they were impatient. Investors bought the stock because they realized everyone hates waiting.   Those who saw the future in that speedy little yellow button? They could’ve caught another 10,000%+ move.   Finally…   Back in 2011, Bitcoin was trading under $10.   It wasn’t regulated—but it worked.   No bank. No middleman. Just wallet to wallet.   People used it to send money. Investors bought it because they saw the potential.   Those who saw something glimmering in that strange orange coin? They could’ve caught a 100,000%+ move.   The people who made those calls weren’t fortune tellers. They just noticed something simple before others did.   A better way. A quiet shift. A small edge. An asymmetric bet.   The red envelope fixed late fees. The yellow button fixed waiting. The orange coin gave billions a choice.   Of course, these types of gains are rare. And they happen only once in a blue moon. That’s exactly why it’s important to notice when the conditions start to look familiar.   Not after the move. Not once it's on CNBC. But in the quiet build-up— before the surface breaks.   Enter the Blue Button Please read more here: https://altucherconfidential.com/posts/netflix-amazon-bitcoin-blue  Profits from free accurate cryptos signals: https://www.predictmag.com/ 
    • What These Attacks Look Like There are several ways you could get hacked. And the threats compound by the day.   Here’s a quick rundown:   Phishing: Fake emails from your “bank.” Click the link, give your password—game over.   Ransomware: Malware that locks your files and demands crypto. Pay up, or it’s gone.   DDoS: Overwhelm a website with traffic until it crashes. Like 10,000 bots blocking the door. Often used by nations.   Man-in-the-Middle: Hackers intercept your messages on public WiFi and read or change them.   Social Engineering: Hackers pose as IT or drop infected USB drives labeled “Payroll.”   You don’t need to be “important” to be a target.   You just need to be online.   What You Can Do (Without Buying a Bunker) You don’t have to be tech-savvy.   You just need to stop being low-hanging fruit.   Here’s how:   Use a YubiKey (physical passkey device) or Authenticator app – Ditch text message 2FA. SIM swaps are real. Hackers often have people on the inside at telecom companies.   Use a password manager (with Yubikey) – One unique password per account. Stop using your dog’s name.   Update your devices – Those annoying updates patch real security holes. Use them.   Back up your files – If ransomware hits, you don’t want your important documents held hostage.   Avoid public WiFi for sensitive stuff – Or use a VPN.   Think before you click – Emails that feel “urgent” are often fake. Go to the websites manually for confirmation.   Consider Starlink in case the internet goes down – I think it’s time for me to make the leap. Don’t Panic. Prepare. (Then Invest.)   I spent an hour in that basement bar reading about cyberattacks—and watching real-world systems fall apart like dominos.   The internet going down used to be an inconvenience. Now, it’s a warning.   Cyberwar isn’t coming. It’s here.   And the next time your internet goes out, it might not just be your router.   Don’t panic. Prepare.   And maybe keep a backup plan in your back pocket. Like a local basement bar with good bourbon—and working WiFi.   As usual, we’re on the lookout for more opportunities in cybersecurity. Stay tuned.   Author: Chris Campbell (AltucherConfidential) Profits from free accurate cryptos signals: https://www.predictmag.com/   
    • DUMBSHELL:  re the automation of corruption ---  200,000 "Science Papers" in academic journal database PubMed may have been AI-generated with errors, hallucinations and false sourcing 
    • Does any crypto exchanges get banned in your country? How's about other as Bybit, Kraken, MEXC, OKX?
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.