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Dunstan

Follow the Smart Money / COT Analysis

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Hi everyone,

 

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out ([ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KigsbNbUcPc]here[/ame]).

 

Natural Gas

COT Change (52W) / C-29%, LS-35% /

COT Index (3 year lb.) / C-14%, LS-90%, SS-55% /

A pretty large change in Natural Gas that may take prices lower. We can’t really talk about an extreme, so I would say that the rally could easily continue for some time.

 

USD Index

COT Extreme / LS-All Time COT extreme /

Such levels of extremes in the near past could put a pause in the rally of USD Index.

 

Copper

COT Extreme / LS-194 report COT extreme /

A bullish picture in copper, although we are not at an all-time extreme level yet. I think it’s important to look at the rest of the metals before one decides to take a trade in this market.

 

I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading,

All the best,

Dunstan

 

the original COT report --> here

COT charts --> here

5aa711d3321d3_Report12_NaturalGas.thumb.png.cf8694f1ffc73dbe2131e8b7fdfbf1b6.png

5aa711d33a25d_Report12_USDIndex.thumb.png.ec1bfb69676cf500b2f7a956448c099d.png

Report12_Copper.thumb.png.eaf8eb345a2a6a6637c6c9a9406c93e6.png

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Hi everyone,

 

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out ([ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d7hnfg4-Sz4]here[/ame]).

 

Palladium

COT Extreme / C & LS-All Time COT extreme /

Prices have started their decline, although I would feel more comfortable stating that we are in for a serious price decline, if we could break support levels at around 700. Otherwise we can easily expect the continuation of the rally parallel with the widening of the extreme.

 

Copper

COT Extreme / C-42 report, LS-214 report COT extreme /

Here we see a bullish signal in the report that might stop this recent decline.

 

Soybean Meal

COT Change (52W) / C-24%, LS-15%, SS-47% /

If we look at the longer picture, than we can see that a real shift in the trend could come, if we reach a large cot extreme (Commercials net 0 or long / LS net 0 or short). We may still see a rebound in prices (as we did several time during this decline), but I don’t think that is would be a long lasting one.

 

I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading,

All the best,

Dunstan

 

the original COT report --> here

COT charts --> here

Report13_Palladium.thumb.png.8da33580fda94d89c768fdcca6a47583.png

Report13_Copper.thumb.png.882375d92e6cafbf1d8faaaa9884b6b2.png

5aa711d71a776_Report13_SoybeanMeal.thumb.png.ccc3ef34f96085b89143deb698fe9ae3.png

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Hi everyone,

 

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out ([ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6_J8nIudRaI]here[/ame]).

 

RBOB Gasoline

COT Change (52W) / C-34%, LS-43% /

COT Index (3 year lb.) / C-35%, LS-65%, SS-56% /

Since our last major extreme, prices are in a decline mode. This large change in positions may stop it for a short time, but I think the cot extreme signal is still in place. We can expect – judging from the last couple of cases – a relative extreme in the report, so if Commercials reach 50-60.000 contracts net short, prices may continue their rally.

 

Soybean Oil

COT Extreme / C & LS-All Time COT extreme /

We’ve got a very nice, All Time cot extreme signal in Soybean Oil, so we should expect prices to rally soon.

 

Copper

COT Extreme / C & LS-All Time COT extreme /

Although in the past few weeks, we did not see a reaction in prices to the cot extreme levels that we see in copper, looking at the history of the chart, we should be prepared that prices will increase soon.

 

I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading,

All the best,

Dunstan

 

the original COT report --> here

COT charts --> here

5aa711d903b0e_Report14_RBOBGasoline.thumb.png.559e3ef388b7e7e3c7b564de539c4c2a.png

5aa711d90af9c_Report14_SoybeanOil.thumb.png.4add01ee793286a4a2a44670bf209685.png

Report14_Copper.thumb.png.e0545ac7019d529c85cf8965fcb8635d.png

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Hi everyone,

 

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out ([ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q7ajke2y8cE]here[/ame]).

 

Coffee

COT Change (52W) / C-23%, LS-20% /

COT Index (3 year lb.) / C-98%, LS-5%, SS-36% /

I think one of the nicest markets these days is Coffee. We’ve got a significantly large extreme and this week an also big change in traders’ positions. Both of these signals are bullish signals.

 

New Zealand Dollar (NZD/USD)

COT Extreme / C & LS-All Time COT extreme /

We’ve got a very nice, All Time cot extreme signal in NZD and if we look at the historical charts, we can see that these extremes were always very accurate signals. (we have a bearish one now)

 

Canadian Dollar (CAD/USD)

COT Extreme / C-327 report, LS-323 report COT extreme /

It’s always nice to see opposite signals in currencies, cause it can give us the opportunity to trade the pair. We’ve got a very large cot extreme in Canadian dollar that suggests, prices will stop their decline, and we’ll see higher prices soon.

 

I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading,

All the best,

Dunstan

 

the original COT report --> here

COT charts --> here

Report15_Coffee.thumb.png.f6b37ffd4d77d8347989034c3ee3971b.png

Report15_NZD.thumb.png.7f8a2ac9d46211f7e50d6e1b82328afc.png

Report15_CAD.thumb.png.4fbe7609b9e9569e8b7371c9526b0bae.png

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Hi everyone,

 

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out ([ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=giO4rHDEwis]here[/ame]).

 

Coffee

COT Change (52W) / C-43%, LS-35% /

COT Index (3 year lb.) / C-86%, LS-5%, SS-16% /

Seem that it’s not the end of the decline yet. Anyhow, the wider picture seems very optimistic, so it may be a good trade in the end.

 

Soybean Oil

COT Extreme / C & LS & SS-All Time COT extreme /

All major trader groups are at their all-time extremes. Prices have not reacted yet, so anyone just tuning in can still find a good Risk/Reward trade.

 

Heating Oil

COT Extreme / C-All Time, LS-436 report COT extreme /

COT extremes in Heating Oil seem to be effective signals, so having such a buy signal is pretty valuable.

 

I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading,

All the best,

Dunstan

 

the original COT report --> here

COT charts --> here

Report16_Coffee.thumb.png.7ee0f8e38dd9e93674dcd68d4f9f6263.png

5aa711dda66e2_Report16_SoybeanOil.thumb.png.0258bb3bf71d050cbfb983549928a94c.png

5aa711ddb15e6_Report16_HeatingOil.thumb.png.4665875044aeede1575c744421efb7bf.png

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Hi everyone,

 

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out ([ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=el2mEC-jXpg]here[/ame]).

 

Rough Rice

COT Change (52W) / C-30%, LS-47% /

COT Index (3 year lb.) / C-96%, LS-3%, SS-14% /

Not only do we have a large change in cot positions, but we are at extreme levels also. Both of these are bullish signals, which is very confirming in case you are considering to go long.

 

S&P-500

COT Extreme / C-323 report, LS-All Time COT extreme /

We have reached an all-time extreme level in S&P – at least in Large Speculators – so the big question can be asked: are we at/close to the top? It may easily be the case, but I would warn you that indexes strongly correlate --> have a look at the rest of them, whether the cot extreme exists there also, before you jump in the trade. The extreme in S&P can easily widen for many weeks or even a couple of months, before we see a top. Anyhow, even if we can’t pinpoint the exact top, we can start to position ourselves accordingly: you can scale out of your long positions or bring closer your stops or of carefully build up a short position.

 

Gold

COT Extreme / C & LS-229 report, SS-637 report COT extreme /

Small Speculators… They’re the ones, who make the picture very interesting now --> The last time, they were net short, was back in 2001 / roughly 12 years ago!! The fact that they are soooo pessimistic, suggests to me, that we can expect prices to rise further.

 

I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading,

All the best,

Dunstan

 

the original COT report --> here

COT charts --> here

5aa711e121197_Report17_RoughRice.thumb.png.552795191914f167356b8944e9e9198a.png

5aa711e129401_Report17_SP-500.thumb.png.af87d36c617ed184159a1f9bf1b1f395.png

Report17_Gold.thumb.png.c7c8e1e2aa95a2856f209cb09f495c8b.png

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Hi everyone,

 

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out ([ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7iaesOXUc8c]here[/ame]).

 

Coffee

COT Change (52W) / C-44%, LS-40% /

COT Index (3 year lb.) / C-78%, LS-25%, SS-38% /

Looks as if Coffee is starting to react to the cot extreme that exists in this market. The question here is which signal to listen to: this extreme or the latest change. Well, the answer isn’t that difficult, since usually changes have a short term effect and extremes a longer, we may see prices “hesitate” for some while or even a small decline, but if the extreme takes effect, we should be seeing much higher prices soon!

 

Rough Rice

COT Extreme / LS-All Time COT extreme /

The picture in Rough rice is bullish, we can expect prices to continue their rally.

 

Cocoa

COT Extreme / C-270 report, LS-271 report COT extreme /

Looking at the chart, I don’t think any written words could tell you more about Cocoa, the picture is pretty clear at the moment -> we can expect prices to decline.

 

I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading,

All the best,

Dunstan

 

the original COT report --> here

COT charts --> here

Report18_Coffee.thumb.png.6ac9f20d2019b01530b4857afdef7d74.png

5aa711e34be61_Report18_RoughRice.thumb.png.bdb56e5a36a6c4ed7e5e9fbd8d6854b3.png

Report18_Cocoa.thumb.png.44302ef756cd287511e4f4e93aba0f63.png

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Hi everyone,

 

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out ([ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mGENYyYvliY]here[/ame]).

 

Coffee

COT Change (52W) / C-41%, LS-36%, SS-25% /

COT Long-term Trend: UP

As Large Speculators gone back Long, we can start thinking of joining them. If you have a look at the historical charts, you’ll find that in most markets, Large Speculators are on the right side during trends. The fact that they are switching their views about the market, is very exciting! Although we have this large change in positions, I think that in a few weeks, but maybe only in a couple of months, we will see much higher prices.

 

Swiss Franc

COT Change (52W) / C-20%, LS-19%, SS-20% /

COT Extreme / relative COT extreme /

Although we are a bit away from All Time cot extreme levels, on a 5 year chart you can see that Commercial’s level of net long 30.000 contracts usually meant the start of a rally. We are at this level now. Of course the picture would be clearer if they were at 55-60.000 contracts, but this level of extreme combined with the large change size may convince us to open a long position.

 

Heating Oil

COT Extreme / C & LS-All Time COT extreme /

We’ve got All Time extreme levels in the cot report this time in Heating Oil, that could easily mean higher prices soon!

 

I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading,

All the best,

Dunstan

 

the original COT report --> here

COT charts --> here

Report19_Coffee.thumb.png.e8ae65fe3d34989d6057dd651f69d9ff.png

5aa711e46ee5d_Report19_SwissFranc.thumb.png.14d27a8aec7973cffd95ca2138fd41d2.png

5aa711e475ef0_Report19_HeatingOil.thumb.png.f2ed6fdf6f6ca20e9461ffe97bd69808.png

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Hi everyone,

 

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out ([ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5g-h_VXJ_JE]here[/ame]).

 

Coffee

COT Change (52W) / C-36%, LS-32%, SS-24% /

COT Long-term Trend: DOWN

Large Speculators could not stay long, thus we may easily see the further widening of the cot extreme: Commercials heading back to above 20.000 contracts net long levels. If this is the case, we should expect prices to continue their decline, even if the change this time can be regarded as a bullish signal (but of course we should know by now:) that cot changes have a short lasting effect -> prices may rise for a few days).

 

Wheat (Chicago)

COT Change (52W) / C-24%, LS-20%, SS-30% /

COT Extreme / not far from all time COT extreme /

Both of our major cot signals are pointing upwards, a large change in traders positions and the extreme in the market. The last two extremes lasted for quite some time, so we may need to wait a bit for the rally to happen.

 

British Pound

COT Extreme / C & LS-All Time COT extreme /

Until we reach the bottom in prices of early this year, the preceding cot extreme is still in place and prices can continue their rally. If the mentioned level is broken and prices fall deeper, we may find ourselves in a similar situation as we had in Japanese Yen a few months ago, a Commercial Capitulation. Of course these rarely happen, so it’s not the scenario we should bet on.

 

I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading,

All the best,

Dunstan

 

the original COT report --> here

COT charts --> here

Report20_Coffee.thumb.png.296fbdc42f20c8f56f57cf099caa2758.png

Report20_Wheat.thumb.png.96b8b74ff0b63ccdf0538367eac9546e.png

Report20_GBP.thumb.png.f54afb58f94121eb5b6d119835bc0305.png

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Hi everyone,

 

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out ([ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uINQf8gQAyg]here[/ame]).

 

Nasdaq-100

COT Extreme / LS-All Time COT extreme /

The cot picture suggests that the rally we see in prices has come to an end, at least temporarily.

 

Silver

COT Extreme / C – 616 report, LS – 527 report COT extreme /

There’s an unquestionable bullish picture in metals now if we look at the cot report. The question is of course – as always – when would prices react?

 

Japanese Yen

COT Extreme / LS – 306 report COT extreme /

We know now, that the All Time COT extreme that developed at the end of 2012 did not produce a rally, but rather a rare situation that we call commercial capitulation. The extreme in this market is still present, yet we do not see the weakening of this decline.

 

I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading,

All the best,

Dunstan

 

the original COT report --> here

COT charts --> here

Report21_Nasdaq.thumb.png.201e65ae2cb7a83022f3216ab2b7d9c7.png

Report21_Silver.thumb.png.c3282bd6f80ce56d901843462bf90c5e.png

5aa711e568923_Report21_JapaneseYen.thumb.png.4f39b94b2a699851c7a7b113c256cf47.png

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Hi everyone,

 

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out ([ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vz4rHNBUbck]here[/ame]).

 

New Zealand Dollar

COT Change (52W) / C&LS 22% /

The latest cot report shows us that both the change in trader’s positions and the extreme in the market are painting a bullish picture. If we look at the longer term charts, we can see that NZD nicely reacted to these extremes. We may need to wait one or two more weeks, before the bottom develops, but it’s definitely getting closer.

 

Australian Dollar

COT Extreme / C, LS & SS – All Time COT extreme /

The extreme is more evident here than in NZD. The COT report shows us that all major players in the market are at their all time extreme level. The picture is very bullish.

 

British Pound

COT Extreme / LS – All Time COT extreme /

Seems that the cot extreme that developed a few months ago and which started to push prices higher is still widening. Prices should continue their rally.

 

I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading,

All the best,

Dunstan

 

the original COT report --> here

COT charts --> here

Report22_NZD.thumb.png.8048d7d8b9efa5e9d6287c5d949303e0.png

Report22_AUD.thumb.png.9763d7c7b758e2031682db97828082a6.png

Report22_GBP.thumb.png.15de6bd3b8d8749c682f8bc4626b1309.png

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Hi everyone,

 

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out ([ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3ui32k-YNAQ]here[/ame]).

 

Oats

COT Change (52W) / C – 53%, LS 60% /

The large change in the commitments of traders report can be considered a bearish signal, so we may see a bit of a price decline. We can’t talk about a very large cot extreme, but there is a relative one if you just look at a shorter period of time, such as the one-year chart.

 

Heating Oil

COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /

The extreme is still widening even though prices have reacted to it many weeks ago. We can expect prices to go even higher.

 

Australian Dollar

COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /

The picture in the commitments of traders report is the same as last week, we have a beautiful All Time extreme situation. If you haven’t seen my earlier warnings, it is still not late to take a trade!

 

I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading,

All the best,

Dunstan

 

the original COT report --> here

COT charts --> here

Report23_Oats.thumb.png.0ed11281da2afc98697a5dc34f5a6c57.png

5aa711e8ea0f8_Report23_HeatingOil.thumb.png.97a8ea8f849d92f8d45026c76c5ea14f.png

Report23_AUD.thumb.png.07844ee52b829f931708f49e8c820474.png

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Hi everyone,

 

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out ([ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bmwvngxnm74]here[/ame]).

 

Rough Rice

COT Change (52W) / C – 42%, LS - 53% /

If you remember, we talked about rough rice a few reports ago and now looking at the chart, we can see that the large cot change back then was a very nice bullish signal that resulted in a successful trade for anyone, who took it. This time, we have another large change, but it is a bearish signal. Since we are also close to a bullish cot extreme, the question is: which signal to follow (?). Well, the shorter, one year charts suggests that we should expect a decline in prices --> rough rice reacts to these large changes, so we may expect it to do so again. Of course we shouldn’t forget about the longer term picture too…

 

Crude Oil

COT Extreme / LS – All Time COT extreme /

Even if Small Speculators seem to be pessimistic about this market (which usually is a bullish signal), the other two major participants are at cot extremes that have a bearish bias.

 

Australian Dollar

COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /

Another Commercial Capitulation? The pictures is very much similar to the once we had in Japanese Yen. We’ve got a huge (All Time) cot extreme, but prices seem to neglect the signal. If this is the case, we can expect a very serious decline in prices.

 

I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading,

All the best,

Dunstan

 

the original COT report --> here

COT charts --> here

5aa711ebee1b2_Report24_RoughRice.thumb.png.ff75264e9a7eb2a26e13c03e821a8025.png

5aa711ec0a908_Report24_CrudeOil.thumb.png.50987521bba30d36a740c739328e9cc5.png

Report24_AUD.thumb.png.afa7794337e200646e25aa09343178f4.png

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Hi everyone,

 

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out ([ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bbB4nPSM3V8]here[/ame]).

 

Nasdaq-100

COT Change (52W) / C – 38%, LS - 31%, SS - 41% /

Large changes in Traders positions that have a bullish bias, but let’s not forget that the recent cot extreme triggered the down leg which may continue further. Analyzing the Volume and Open interest last week, we can see that it is also a bearish signal.

 

RBOB Gasoline

COT Change (52W) / C – 26%, LS - 26%, SS - 22% /

COT Extreme / C – 143 Report, LS – 144 report COT extreme /

Bullish picture supported by the large change in the commitments of traders report and also the cot extreme.

 

Copper

COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /

We’ve got a huge COT extreme (All Time) in Copper that is telling us: the decline in prices may be over soon.

 

I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading,

All the best,

Dunstan

 

the original COT report --> here

COT charts --> here

Report25_Nasdaq-100.thumb.png.1909934ab0c99f806dbeb3a633796b44.png

5aa711ee36c9a_Report25_RBOBGasoline.thumb.png.7c300c6f4c91cc4351d91b80a58ba193.png

Report25_Copper.thumb.png.77a90411222c0ecabde5e48afa0fe504.png

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Hi everyone,

 

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out ([ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O8qA371xF_4&feature=c4-overview&list=UUIPXgu1ZbbebeTnhfSk6QCQ]here[/ame]).

 

Oats

COT Change (52W) / C – 34%, LS - 27%, SS – 36% /

The large change in the cot report suggests that prices will rally, but the longer time frame is painting a different picture: there was a pretty large cot extreme last week that may push prices lower.

 

Australian Dollar

COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /

All Time Extreme still, stress levels are building up. The big question: when can we see prices react to this large extreme or would we witness a rally at all (commercial capitulation).

 

Gold

COT Extreme / C – 600, LS - 438 report COT extreme /

Stresses are really high in metals these days… we’ve reached extremes that we haven’t seen for over 10 years now!! The pictures is bullish.

 

I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading,

All the best,

Dunstan

 

the original COT report --> here

COT charts --> here

Report26_Oats.thumb.png.05567b1bee6003e16a0b9aa78c2b9ed1.png

Report26_AUD.thumb.png.23fbe08bcbb706e91b696336650e61e6.png

Report26_Gold.thumb.png.277a523cd7e8d0f785d53c881810ae7e.png

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Hi everyone,

 

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

 

Rough Rice

COT Change (52W) / C – 40%, LS - 53% /

It seems that we are witnessing again another large change in traders positions. The last couple of times the signals were affective, so we can expect prices to react to the recent one as well.

 

Crude Oil

COT Extreme / C – 121 Report, LS – All Time COT extreme /

The extreme in Crude Oil is large, but the bearish picture would be even more solid if Small Speculators were at an extreme (above 40.000 contract net long).

 

Gold

COT Extreme / C – 601 Report, LS – 439 report COT extreme /

The stress level in Gold is extremely high… we’ve reached levels that we didn’t see for over ten years now. In my opinion, we are looking at an extremely bullish picture.

 

I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading,

All the best,

Dunstan

 

the original COT report

COT charts

Commitments of Traders basics

5aa711f267f97_Report27_RoughRice.thumb.png.a2b3499089fe0575856e83fbce38511f.png

5aa711f270245_Report27_CrudeOil.thumb.png.e0bdc67eca297d21686a02613f892b27.png

Report27_Gold.thumb.png.4e6e63051152d9607453869403adc125.png

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Hi everyone,

 

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

 

S&P-500

COT Change (52W) / C – 24%, LS - 26% /

A bit larger change then average, but I don’t think it deserves too much attention. What’s more interesting is that the extreme is again widening, which means the rally is still not over.

 

Crude Oil

COT Extreme / C ,LS – All Time COT extreme /

Last week’s comment is still in place: “The extreme in Crude Oil is large, but the bearish picture would be even more solid if Small Speculators were at an extreme (above 40.000 contract net long).”

 

Australian Dollar

COT Extreme / LS – All Time COT extreme /

The All Time extreme situation in Australian Dollar has been present for over a month now and it seems that prices are starting to react.

 

I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading,

All the best,

Dunstan

 

the original COT report

 

COT charts

 

Commitments of Traders basics

5aa711f486da5_Report28_SP-500.thumb.png.deda15479265ed8a5ea849b4b66d7da1.png

5aa711f49079f_Report28_CrudeOil.thumb.png.4a901b76d40679c1bc94bf1a1ed77656.png

Report28_AUD.thumb.png.43413c608c39114eb66552f8908b337e.png

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Hi everyone,

 

Sorry, but it seems that COTbase.com did not post a new Commitments of Traders review this time. Anyhow, I will give you an update as usual:)

 

Coffee

COT Change (52W) / C – 25%, LS - 22% /

The change in the cot report was large and suggesting a bearish move --> as we see it today, prices did decline a bit. The longer/wider picture on the other hand is still pretty bullish: Commercials are net long, which in most cases throughout Coffee’s history happened when prices were low.

 

Crude Oil

COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /

Prices seem to support us --> the cot extreme may be in effect, thus we can expect the decline to continue.

 

Lean Hogs

COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /

Commercials and Large Speculators (unfortunately without Small Speculators being in extreme) are at an All Time extreme level in their net positions. This, as we can see in the past is a very bearish signal, so we can expect prices to continue their decline that started roughly two weeks ago.

 

I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading,

All the best,

Dunstan

 

the original COT report

 

COT charts

 

Commitments of Traders basics

Report29_Coffee.thumb.png.29d1858f467a12b4a9a4f1735651a585.png

5aa711f72a6c1_Report29_CrudeOil.thumb.png.4a44b0ea044600aafe2e22f0a57d504f.png

5aa711f78c093_Report29_LeanHogs.thumb.png.9686ce3c2c0c8707ea69f1b3652381c0.png

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Hi everyone,

 

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

 

Soybean Meal

COT Change (52W) / C – 26%, LS - 22%, SS – 30% /

The change size in recent cot report and the relative extreme that we’re at suggests a bottoming of prices soon. Since we are not at a major extreme level, which would be a clearer signal to act on, we should be careful with a long trade.

 

Australian Dollar

COT Extreme / LS – All Time COT extreme /

All market participants are at All Time or close to All Time extreme levels in their net positions. This means that stress levels are very high in Australian Dollar --> the bubble should burst our sooner or later. Of course the big question is as always: when?

 

S&P-400

COT Extreme / LS – All Time COT extreme /

The COT Extreme in Indexes is getting larger and larger as prices are moving higher. In my opinion the rally will continue into September and we will get much larger extremes before we reach the top.

 

I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading,

All the best,

Dunstan

 

the original COT report

 

COT charts

 

Commitments of Traders basics

5aa711f871d2f_Report30_SoybeanMeal.thumb.png.596a84a5b9129e6b68e601f67db55e45.png

Report30_AUD.thumb.png.498b6908c04a2c50dcf431f07f20c812.png

5aa711f88767f_Report30_SP-400.thumb.png.7d62d5b6853da1837930d38f450572c9.png

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Hi everyone,

 

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

 

Coffee

COT Change (52W) / C – 27%, LS - 25%, SS – 8% /

The change in commitments of traders report and also the extreme (Commercials net long) both give us bullish signals. When the rally starts, we’re gonna see Commercials go back to deep net short territories.

 

Australian Dollar

COT Extreme / C & LS – All Time COT extreme /

After last week’s rally it seem that we may have reached the bottom… if the rally continues this week, we should see market participants move away from their extremes.

 

Lean Hogs

COT Extreme / C & LS – All Time COT extreme /

The picture is pretty obvious here, we are at or close to the top in prices --> the extreme is huge in Lean Hogs!

 

I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading,

All the best,

Dunstan

 

the original COT report

 

COT charts

 

Commitments of Traders basics

Report31_Coffee.thumb.png.19af2d7ba018b9cdb8a5c16e72c01b17.png

Report31_AUD.thumb.png.a41ae377a028611e266d8f793db8676f.png

5aa711f9bce71_Report31_Leanhogs.thumb.png.6a372c81259db280215cea32d85d991a.png

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Hi everyone,

 

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

 

Sugar

COT Change (52W) / C – 29%, LS - 25%, SS – 31% /

The latest cot report is showing us that there were large changes in Trader’s positions. This, combined with the extreme in the market suggests that prices should continue their rise.

 

Copper

COT Change (52W) / C – 26%, LS - 31%, SS – 11% /

The huge change in Commercials and Large Speculators positions tells us that prices may easily fall a bit, but let’s not forget that a few reports ago, we were at a major cot extreme which signaled the latest bottom and is still in effect.

 

Lean Hogs

COT Extreme / C & LS – All Time COT extreme /

Although there was a roll-over in contracts here, it is still obvious that price have declined since last week’s signal… the extreme in this market is supporting the further decline of prices.

 

I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading,

All the best,

Dunstan

 

the original COT report

 

COT charts

 

Commitments of Traders basics

Report32_Sugar.thumb.png.47567044ce4c23ec469abd37ed629662.png

Report32_Copper.thumb.png.2faca4f2bc04d06065a027ed1a11262c.png

5aa711faa3a60_Report32_LeanHogs.thumb.png.95d21bd3e2deecbde6e3749009578a79.png

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Hi everyone,

 

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

 

Dow Jones-30

COT Change (52W) / C – 30%, LS - 28% /

The large change in the latest cot report indicates that prices will rise instead of continuing their decline. The situation in indexes is very exciting, cause we have an extreme or to say: large stresses amongst indexes these days, but I think that (it’s just a feeling:)) we will see an even greater extreme in the next few weeks/months, before prices really reach a top.

 

Live Cattle

COT Change (52W) / C – 23%, LS - 24%, SS – 11% /

Both of our major cot signals are telling us that prices will fall --> We’ve witnessed another large change in Trader’s positions and as it happened, we’ve reached a relatively larger cot extreme (let’s just open a three year long chart) that is bearish signal.

 

Cotton

COT Extreme / LS – All Time COT extreme /

There is a definite extreme in Cotton as we can see and prices have already reacted.

 

I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading,

All the best,

Dunstan

 

the original COT report

 

COT charts

 

Commitments of Traders basics

5aa711fbb70ce_Report33_DowJones-30.thumb.png.ff5f1c75b67d3d3c8d13a793fdeef6fb.png

5aa711fbbedd7_Report33_LiveCattle.thumb.png.e8fdcbdf57e6159fdb407ae3976aa55c.png

Report33_Cotton.thumb.png.f838b89bd93421ae8b457df65482eb17.png

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Hi everyone,

 

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

 

S&P-500

COT Change (52W) / C – 34%, LS - 27% /

The situation is interesting here, because the large change in Trader’s position is suggesting that price should rebound / get back into rally mode, but then again, we’ve just reached a cot extreme level that could easily turn this uptrend into a down trend.

 

Cotton

COT Change (52W) / C – 21%, LS - 22%, SS – 15% /

Similarly to S&P, we’ve got the two major cot signals pointing in opposite directions: the change is suggesting that prices will rise, but the extreme is still in place and it is showing us a bearish picture.

 

Cocoa

COT Extreme / Close to All-Time COT extreme /

The Extreme in Cocoa is pushing prices lower. If Commercials could reach a net short level of <25-20.000 contracts, we’d get a relative extreme that may push prices to rally mode.

 

I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading,

All the best,

Dunstan

 

the original COT report

 

COT charts

 

Commitments of Traders basics

5aa711fd3a108_Report34_SP-500.thumb.png.4e77fe8950df7feec177f466a560d89b.png

Report34_Cotton.thumb.png.596e67fc29a682741d521c8c951c6246.png

Report34_Cocoa.thumb.png.32756039fc1fc13ab2eb62c7affa1100.png

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Hi everyone,

 

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

 

EURO

COT Change (52W) / C – 16%, LS - 12%, SS - 27% /

EURO became first on the list in respect to large changes in Commercials positions.. this could mean that prices will rally, but the cot extreme (relative) that is present suggests that prices will continue their fall. It’s not a clear picture…

 

Cocoa

COT Extreme / Close to All-Time COT extreme levels in C and LS /

The cot extreme that is present in this market is telling us that prices cannot rally for too long anymore. I agree with it.

 

5-Year Note

COT Extreme / C-293 report, LS – 179 report, SS – 394 report COT extreme /

The extreme is pretty clear, so we are expecting a bottom to develop soon… of course, looking at longer charts (>10 year), we can find even greater extremes, so if prices continued their decline, we shouldn’t be surprised.

 

I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading,

All the best,

Dunstan

 

the original COT report

 

COT charts

 

Commitments of Traders basics

Report35_EUR.thumb.png.6166bc08a753619cd399fbc9ef5c7fe2.png

Report35_Cocoa.thumb.png.3e97990950eaff5627059fc773a406bc.png

5aa711fe16a5f_Report35_5-YearNote.thumb.png.441b12441c2c89596d4d6b2bc95e6392.png

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Hi everyone,

 

The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.

 

EURO

 

EURO became first on the list in respect to large changes in Commercials positions.. this could mean that prices will rally, but the cot extreme (relative) that is present suggests that prices will continue their fall. It’s not a clear picture…

 

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why it is useful then for?

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