Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

wshahan

Week Two Trades-Spookywill

Recommended Posts

Your post brought it to the attention of my consciousness and just for shits and giggles I browsed all 30 trading days of the current ES contract and this is what I found:

 

I haven't tested this directly either, but it certainly fits with concepts I have tested, such as fading the initial move off the regular session open.

 

Thanks for an interesting post.

 

BlueHorseshoe

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
The initial balance trade is a Market Profile concept from James Dalton. His work indicated that 70% of the time, one exreme or the other formed in the first hour of trade. (James Dalton, Mind Over Markets. Tom Alexander of AlexanderGroup has done much work with back testing the data over a long period ane his number is 65% which is what I referenced. It is a very simple concept, and I have found it useful.

 

That's really useful - thanks.

 

BlueHorseshoe

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

We had a pull back to enter long at 1378 or better. Prices retreated to 1376.75 at 9:06, and then mde another run at 1380 which has so far failed (9:25 CST.) Current price is 1379.50. I am long at 1377.25 at 9:06.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

We have had 2 inside bars in a row on the 30 min bar chart. Ths raises the possibility of a sharp move from the 1381 level without implying a dirctional bias. This is an interesting time of day to expect much in the way of price movement as we are gopmg into the quiet time of day.

 

Only time will tell.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
My original stop was at 1375.75. Price now is at 1381.75. I have moved my stop to 1377.50.

 

Upside objectives: initial 1386.50, then 1397 area.

 

Thanks for sharing good analysis.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Keep in mind that 1376.25 is our downside key reference point. So far the bulk of the day session trade has occurred in a 2 point range, 1380-1382.

 

This is unlikey to continue much longer.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

We had a restest of the morning high which failked by 1 tick (1383 versus 1383.25.) If we don't break out here, widows and orphans should take a 5 point profit. All others take partial profits according to trading plan. I assume most day trading plans would take at least a partial profit if we should get up 10 points (approx. 1387 or so.)

 

At this juncture, my working assumption is that the 8:30 30 min bar is going to be the day's low extreme. Range symmetery concepts give me a clue that range today will likely exceed 8 points, and an upper expectation would be for a 20 point day, plus or minus 10%. The implication of this is prices go much above current levels, we could get a big up day, i.e.,

a retracement of yesterday. 1385.75 is the high from yesterday, so exceeding yesterday's high could lead to much higher prices.

 

The other side of our symmetry thought is that if we are going to have a reversal, this would be be a logical area to expect it.

 

Breaking yesterday's high, or not, seems to be the key.

 

1381 is our high volume price, and we continue to trade above there without much price movement.

 

The issue is now that there is very low volume (lunch time, etc.) We will need an increase in volume to get price movement in either direction.

 

Spookywill

 

So we shall see. Only time wil.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

We have spent 3 hours in a 2 point range. Unless you are unusuallyaggressive, I think it is time to close the longs and stand back to evaluate the situation.

 

Close positions at 1381 or better.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

We are approaching yesterday's day session range low of 1365.50.

 

If we hold that price, conservative investors take profits.

 

If we go below 1365.75 and hold, add to short positions.

 

IF not short, enter shorts upon retesty failure.

Edited by wshahan
typo

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
We are approaching yesterday's day session range low of 1365.50.

 

If we hold that price, conservative investors take profits.

 

If we go below 1365.75 and hold, add to short positions.

 

IF not short, enter shorts upon retesty failure.

 

Did you mean 1375.50 for session range low?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

conservative investors take profits in the 1377 area. We made a 1 tick new low and bounced off of it. I think we can possibly make a new low, but givens todays narrow range, 4 points looks good.

 

That plus 5 points in the morning makes for a good day in the ES.

 

Especially on a day with a day session range of 8.75 points.

Edited by wshahan
typo

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
conservative investors take profits in the 1377 area. We made a 1 tick new low and bounced off of it. I think we can possibly make a new low, but givens todays narrow range, 4 points looks good.

 

That plus 5 points in the morning makes for a good day in the ES.

 

Especially on a day with a day session range of 8.75 points.

 

Good work Buddy, well appreciated.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

3:18 PM CST

 

 

Reply to CYP

 

Did you mean 1375.50 for session range low?

 

1365.50 is correct for yesterday's US session low. We went below that price in the session too late to make a trade there.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Thanks, gosu, that was a very interesting post!

 

Did you check the congestion and retest part too?

 

I know, I am sooo lazy... :stick out tongue:

 

... if you haven't done it you bet I will look into it myself :)

 

Not for all days, just for the 2 exceptional days. See the spreadsheet. I didn't find anything revelatory, nor did I expect to because this is familiar territory. If this is new territory for you, I'm sure you'll learn more by looking into it yourself. Feel free to PM if you have any other questions.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Reply to CYP

 

Did you mean 1375.50 for session range low?

 

1365.50 is correct for yesterday's US session low. We went below that price in the session too late to make a trade there.

My bad, we went below 1375.50 in today's session. 1365.50 was in reference to yesterday's session in case we had a big breakdown.

 

Spookywill.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Topics

  • Posts

    • Question: To those that had/have cancer, what were the signs that made you think “something is not right here” to make you go see a doctor? Answer: So, 5/25/2018, I woke up, got ready for work, and as I walked to my car, I started gagging. Like something was stuck in my throat and I needed to clear it. And then it went away.   But 10 minutes after that, I was T-boned at 40mph on the driver side door. But what made me see a doctor was while my muscles felt better and bruises were going away, the gagging still continued, I started having fevers, my neck felt swollen, I was having such a hard time breathing, and I'd have random sharp pains in my chest, but not from where the seat belt saved me.   2 weeks after the accident, I finally see an urgent care doctor, who looks me over, tells me I'm fine, but luckily requests a neck X-ray. And I ask for a chest X-ray, which he rolls his eyes but let me have (most of my pain was in the neck, so I understand).   The very next day, he calls and says “So, that chest X-ray shows there's a 4 inch mass on your heart and lungs, and your lungs have been filling up with fluid, as well as in your pericardial (heart) wall. We need you to come in tomorrow.”   Turns out the big mass, due to the accident, caused my heart and lungs to tear and fill with fluid, the swollen neck and gagging was caused by 2 metastasized tumors, and the fevers and weight loss were symptoms. Stage 4b Hodgkin's Lymphoma.   But thankfully, we went very aggressive with chemo (and had a lot of bad side effects that don't normally happen to patients), and now I'm about 16 months cancer-free. Yay lucky X-rays! Rachel Jurina, Quora Source: https://www.quora.com/To-those-that-had-have-cancer-what-were-the-signs-that-made-you-think-something-is-not-right-here-to-make-you-go-see-a-doctor   Profits from free accurate cryptos signals: https://www.predictmag.com/  
    • As a man, the reality of life is the harshest part. I don’t mind looking older or becoming weaker over time; it’s nature.   Have you ever heard that the only people who will be loved unconditionally are women and children? Men will only be loved as long as they can provide until they are no longer needed. It doesn’t matter if you already did your best to get your kids to the best school or get the best things for them, if you stop before they’re done with it, there will be no thank you. The only thing they will remember is that they have to quit school at 15, ignoring all the previous 15 years of life you provided for them. The only people who will accept you, no matter what, are your parents. But in this situation, you might be that ungrateful child.   EDIT: Wow, I didn’t think this would get so much attention.   For those who disagree, I can only say that everyone has their problem. If you don’t get the chance to face such a thing, be grateful. Remember, sometimes what you throw in the garbage is something that someone wishes ever to have.” – ElZee, Quora   Profits from free accurate cryptos signals: https://www.predictmag.com/    
    • The good thing i had noticed so far is that the traderpot value is also on the rise..
    • yup its a gradual rollout the right way in my opinion, its really good and its exciting for the sto in 2027
    • there is no avoiding loses to be honest, its just how the market is. you win some and hopefully more, but u do lose some. 
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.