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Mysticforex

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CAD/JPY

 

After dropping to a low of 91.75 in late January, CAD/JPY staged a dramatic recovery to trade all the way up to 100. The currency pair tested this level 4 times this month and is now itching for a break. While the rise has been largely driven by the turnaround in oil prices, in the long run, it is the improvement in economic data that will keep the Canadian dollar bid. The previous decline in oil prices hit Canada hard and now that prices are stabilizing, we should start to see positive economic surprises. In fact, the Bank of Canada already turned optimistic and is no longer looking to lower interest rates this year. Next week’s Canadian retail sales and consumer price reports will play a large role in determining whether CAD/JPY breaks this key psychological and technical level.

CADJPY051815.png.9e624e707ddef144796b35617516526b.png

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For the better part of the past year 9400 has acted a rock solid support for AUD/CAD pair, but with Aussie slipping to 6 year lows this week the pair could finally break that key level. Last night the Aussie saw a mild bounce after the labor data came in better than expected, but despite beating market forecasts on all fronts the Aussie could not hold its rally highs. The reason for its weakness is the nagging belief that its just a matter of time that economy turns weaker and RBA will be forced to cut rates once again. Indeed some analysts predict that the AU rates will fall to 1.5% by the end of the year. In the meantime the loonie has also been under attack due to ever weakening oil prices, but crude appears to have stabilized at $50/bbl and the Canadian economy is less vulnerable to it price swings. Tomorrow's Canadian labor data, if it prints positive could be the catalyst that breaks the AUD/CAD 9400 level as markets begin to favor loonie at the expense of the Aussie.

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Technically, this is the first time in almost a month that EUR/USD closed above the 20-day SMA. However today’s rally stopped right at the convergence of the 50-day SMA, first standard deviation Bollinger Band and trend line resistance. This means that EUR/USD will either reverse from current levels and heads toward support at 1.0955 or break through resistance and march above 1.12.

EURUSD072815.png.716f87d8ff66d1a67e7d52006644c0a4.png

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Over the past four trading days the EUR/USD is up an astounding 700 points or seven big figures. That's one of the sharpest rallies on record and is emblematic of just how wrong footed the market has been on the pair. The spike higher has been fueled by lack of liquidity, risk aversion flows and the merciless momentum of the algos which have wreaked havoc with many long term positions. The truth of the matter however is that fundamentally nothing has changed. The ECB are still on divergent monetary paths and the economic performance of US is far superior to that of Europe. No one that may matter in the short run however as currencies will continue to trade off equity flows. Once the risk aversion correlation establishes itself, it takes a while to go away. So the EUR/USD may indeed squeeze higher, but any further moves are likely to be more contained as most of the technical damage has already been done.

Screen-Shot-2015-08-24-at-3_21.14-PM-784x536.png.c9c9b7341451558d3e8f95eb5538e7b5.png

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Technically, a 1 big figure move is all EUR/USD needs to break 1.05. For the past 3 days 1.0550 has served as near term support for EUR/USD and once that’s broken the main focus will be on 1.05. Below 1.05 there is minor support at the 2015 low of 1.0459 and then no major support for the currency pair until 1.00 (parity). The main resistance on the upside is 1.0830.

EURUSD120215-350x235.png.d0242c23fbc50a5c8200b7856c9e358c.png

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Technically, a 1 big figure move is all EUR/USD needs to break 1.05. For the past 3 days 1.0550 has served as near term support for EUR/USD and once that’s broken the main focus will be on 1.05. Below 1.05 there is minor support at the 2015 low of 1.0459 and then no major support for the currency pair until 1.00 (parity). The main resistance on the upside is 1.0830.

 

What about current situation with EUR/USD. Any forecasts?

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