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Mysticforex

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For the past 4 months, sterling has been gradually losing value against the U.S. dollar and earlier this month, the currency pair dropped to fresh 1 year lows. Initially the move was driven by expectations for earlier tightening by the Federal Reserve but the selling gained momentum after weaker UK data raised concerns about the pace of BoE tightening. Last week, the Bank of England lowered their growth and inflation forecasts forcing banks to push out their own timeline for when the MPC will raise rates. Sterling fell as a result but is still holding above its 1 year low. Whether this level is broken could be determined within the next 24 hours with the release of the BoE and FOMC minutes. If the minutes show a more cautious BoE and more optimistic Fed, it would reinforce the divergence in monetary policy direction, sending GBP/USD below 1.5593.

GBPUSD1119140.png.af3053e3f7cbde78f4a708a5b2248fac.png

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Taking a look at the monthly chart of USD/JPY, 120 is not only a psychologically significant level but also the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 1997 to 2011 decline. As a result, it should prove to be a formidable resistance level for the currency pair. While some bulls may wait to take profits closer to that level, pair’s 8% rally in November could encourage others to bank gains earlier. Yet declines in USD/JPY should be limited to 116 and at worse 115 because monetary policy dynamics should keep the currency pair bid.

USDJPY112114.png.11eaabb714b16ececb9cebd9ce4078e1.png

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Euro was decimated today by comments from Mario Draghi who made no bones about the fact that he would like to see more QE in order to stimulate the economy. He also noted that he thinks the currency should weaken. Clearly the ECB wants more action and a lower exchange rate but they are being stymied by the German monetary authorities who oppose most of the accommodation measures. On Monday however the market will get a glimpse at the key IFO sentiment survey and if business confidence in Germany shows serious deterioration, German authorities may become much more amenable to some compromise and the euro could set fresh yearly lows.

 

 

The EUR/USD now finds itself at the last possible support ahead of the key 1.2350 level. A break there wold open up a move to 1.2250 and possibly a fall to key 1.2000 barrier. Only a move above the 1.2600 figure negates the bearish bias.

EURUSD_11_21_14.jpg.f53dbab74f2f3262b764e799bc19f482.jpg

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Techincally AUDJPY pair has turned in a major reversal off the 102.00 level and now targets 100.00 as the near term support. A break there opens up a run to 98.00 while only a close above 102.00 negates the bearish bias.

4.Min__11_26_14..jpg.984c7aa7e8337643adfa887c13d6ff75.jpg

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Taking a look at the monthly chart of USD/CAD if the currency pair breaks its current 5 year high of 1.1467 1.15 will serve as near term resistance but 1.1540, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 2007 to 2009 rally will be the key level to watch. On the downside, 1.12 remains support for USD/CAD.

USDCAD113014.png.4a596f9f1a6611d7eba15f2adb11a2da.png

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Looking at the techs the 8400 level remains the key support and a break there could open a run towards 8250 over the next several sessions. Meanwhile only a break above 8650 alleviates the bearish bias in the pair.

 

 

The Aussie staged a strong recovery off the recent multi year lows set over the holiday laden week and raced all the way towards 8500 before running out of gas. However, the sharp rebound may be nothing more that a short covering bounce as the fundamentals against the unit remains substantial. The recent drop in iron ore prices to below $60/ton is likely to have a massive negative impact on the AU economy which receives 1 out of 5 export dollars from that sector. If the slump in commodity prices does not correct soon, the RBA may be forced to consider another rate hike in order to ease the economic pain. Tonight's meeting ma be key as the RBA could signal a change of posture from its current neutral stance that could bring another round of selling for the Aussie.

AUDUSD.1_02_14.jpg.14427e6760871df34300679277b49c00.jpg

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Technically the EUR/GBP pair enjoys strong triple bottom support at the 7800 level and a break there opens a move towards 7500. A rejection could take the pair to the top of the range at 8000 but only a close above 8050 removes the bearish bias.

EURGBP.1_03_14.jpg.d23f608287423235d2c5fa8d564cec67.jpg

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Technically the EUR/GBP pair enjoys strong triple bottom support at the 7800 level and a break there opens a move towards 7500. A rejection could take the pair to the top of the range at 8000 but only a close above 8050 removes the bearish bias.

EURGBP.1_03_14.jpg.0738ac1b0dd774076b4602ba33661491.jpg

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Taking a look at the monthly chart of USD/JPY, 120 is an important resistance level not only because of its psychological significance but also because it represents the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 1999 to 2011 decline. If this level is broken, the next area to watch will be 122.20, where the currency pair found resistance in January and February of 2007. Should this turn out to be a failed test for USD/JPY in the near term, the pullback could extend as far as its recent swing low of 117.25

USDJPY120514.png.751c17cd5234f9de220c1e9e2397e10a.png

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Having made fresh lows last week the pair see no real support until the 8100-8000 level and the only reason that it may pause is because it is now grossly oversold. Only a move above 8500 relieves the downside bias

AUDUSD_12_07_14.jpg.984cf177d90853f5e3a87ecf61b3fd77.jpg

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GBP/NZD enjoyed a very strong rally on Monday taking out the key 2.04 level, which was a former support turned resistance. If the currency pair continues to move higher, we should see the rally extend to 2.06. However if the RBNZ fails to lower their inflation forecast, NZD recovers its losses and GBP/NZD falls back below 2.04, a move back to 2.0 becomes likely.

gbpnzd120814.png.9e6494f26549e97d53a2e6050ea7c4a5.png

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NZD/USD now finds itself testing the recent lows at 7650 and a break of 7600 would open a run towards the key 7500 support . The pair has very heavy resistance at the 7900 level and does not break its bearish bias until it can clear that barrier.

NZDUSD_12_09_14.jpg.0b945e5e81775493fbaef3eacb00b913.jpg

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While 1.50 is an important psychological level, taking a look at the monthly chart of EUR/AUD, the 1.5030 level is really key. Smart investors will put their stops slightly above 1.50 and not exactly at that rate so if EUR/AUD clears 1.5030, there is no major resistance until 1.5270, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 2008 to 2012 decline. If it fails at 1.50, there will be support at 1.4800.

EURAUD121114.png.2518a43a3905c72da6ab1f817068b5ac.png

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The break of the 1.1500 level while important still does not provide clear sailing for the loonie because the pair has a resistance overhead all the way to 1.1700 so progress much beyond this point may be stalled. A break above however would open a run to 1.2000 while only a move below 1.1200 would negate the bullish bias

USDCAD_12_12_14.jpg.adaa51a08d08f51a25a5d351ecae32c0.jpg

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The recent rebound in EUR/USD has taken the currency pair to the top of its month long range. 1.25 is near term resistance with 1.26 being the key level to watch. We do not expect EUR/USD to trade above 1.26. On the downside, a break of the former low of 1.2247 puts the currency on target for a move down to the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the 2000 to 2007 rally near 1.2145.

EURUSD121514.png.38e6b7684c766b085d0ea7558442c644.png

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Taking a look at the daily chart of USD/JPY, if the 115.50 support level breaks, the next target for a decline should be the 100-day SMA right below 112. If 115.50 holds and USD/JPY breaks back above 118, the rally should extend as high as 120, which is not only a psychologically significant level but also the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of 1998 to 2011 decline.

USDJPY121714.png.e20bba734ab4d1349a1d06a028a71ea2.png

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Techincally the EURUSD looks like it has curved out a strong support bottom near the 1.2250 level, but the base could just be a pause that refreshes in the overall downward draft. So a test of this level could be crucial as a break could open a move towards the 1.2000 figure

EURUSD_12_18_14.jpg.9f0ca72563818386eff3ace3b9542766.jpg

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When it comes to EUR/CHF, the 1.20 peg distorts the effectiveness of technicals. Nonetheless, there are certain levels within the EUR/CHF breakout that is important. EUR/CHF needs to be trading above the December 2nd 1.2047 high to have any chance of extending its gains without intervention. If it drops back towards 1.2020, the 1.20 peg could be tested once again but we do not expect EUR/CHF to drop below 1.1990.

EURCHF121914.png.8c4bafbc195ddd96cc24917f127b247a.png

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In the past 3 decades, AUD/NZD has found buyers between 1.04 and 1.05. The current record low for the pair is 1.0475. If this level is broken, every big round number could be potential support starting at 1.04. Resistance is at 1.06.

AUDNZD122414.png.4d0ec33c31f7b48122888e16a3f7741d.png

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Taking a look at the monthly chart of USD/JPY, the current 5 year high of 121.85 is the main near resistance level for USD/JPY. If and when this level is broken, the next stop for USD/JPY should be the 2007 high of 124.15. Near term support is at 120 but as long as USD/JPY holds above 116, the uptrend is intact.

usdjpy122914.png.f4900aff0f24074d722dd1eaa47f4b51.png

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1.20 is a very important technical and psychological support level for EUR/USD but today’s move has taken euro below 1.2135, the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the rally that lasted from 2000 to 2008. So far, the currency pair has held this level but the support should be temporary. In the short term resistance is at 1.24 but the main resistance level for EUR/USD is 1.26, the November/December range high.

EURUSD123114.png.879e32492a7f3a5186c8a1a8f803ad2a.png

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GBP/USD dropped to a fresh 1 year low on the first official trading day of January. There’s significant downside momentum in the currency pair, which experienced 6 consecutive months of losses. The break below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the 2007 to 2008 decline leaves 1.50 as the next significant support level for GBP/USD. If that gives way, the next point of support will be at 1.48, the 2013 low. If GBP/USD reverses course and starts to recover, it should find resistance above 1.53.

GBPUSD010615.png.1433f3a6e58150d1b85911a30c4fc6bc.png

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USD/JPY has set a lower top at the 120 level and is now looking like its is rolling over on the way to test the support at the 116.00 spike lows. A break of that level would be a major bearish sign while only a close above 120.50 would reestablish a bullish bias.

USDJPY_01_06_15.thumb.jpg.290fe3f80baeffa77f2e8a5a40b5c486.jpg

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    • USDJPY PRICE OUTFLOW IS DRAWN BY SELLERS BACK TO 114.840   USDJPY Price Analysis – November 25 USDJPY price outflow is being held back as a consequence of bears causing opposition to the market influence. The price structure of the market strives to maintain an uptrend configuration under a bullish influence. However, the sellers are causing some resistance in the market, which is causing a hold in the market configuration. Because of this conflict in the market, the outflow of the bulls in the market will be held back to the 114.840 critical level. USDJPY Critical Levels Resistance Levels: 114.840, 112.790 Support Levels: 110.800, 109.100 USDJPY Long Term Trend: Bullish The bullish outflow price structure initially began with the expansive breadth of consolidation. The market was birthed after a strong price expansion before the bullish uprise. The price undulated between the breadth of the 110.800 and 109.100 significant price levels. As a result of this accumulation, the price was then pushed out to higher levels. With the continuation of the market expansion, buyers outflow upward, with the bulls taking hold of the market. Furthermore, price continues to experience more outflows as several structural levels were broken. When USDJPY eventually gets to the 112.790 level, the price resumes its accumulation phase. The market encountered a short phase of expansion before resuming bullish persistence. The price finally breaks through the 114.840 significant level and we expect a withdrawal back to this price level before bullish engagement. The Tensile Strength indicator shows the resilience of the market influence as the market is set to resume its bullish leverage after sellers retreat. USDJPY Short Term Trend: Bearish The 4-hour chart of USDJPY shows the price configuration riding upward following a strong force that broke through the 114.840 critical level. The price is now set in a retreat motion as the price is seen to be pulling away to the 114.840 price level. The Moving Average Convergence and Divergence indicator shows the market’s prevalent direction as the price is set on a pullback course to the 114.840 critical level before bullish outflow.   Source: https://learn2.trade
    • EURJPY DEPRECIATES TO LOWS NEAR 128.00 FOLLOWING COVID RESURGENCE   EURJPY Price Analysis – November 26 EURJPY pair fell for the third session in a row on Friday, depreciating to the area of recent lows in the 128.00 range. As the new strain of COVID weighs heavily on investors’ sentiment, strong buying interest in the Japanese yen puts EURJPY under added pressure in the sub-129.00 levels. Key Levels Resistance Levels: 130.50, 130.00, 129.61 Support Levels: 127.00, 126.50, 126.00 EURJPY Long term Trend: Ranging On Friday, the EURJPY opened higher at 129.31 and moved lower to 127.79 intraday lows losing almost 1%. The pair plunged, as bears emerged and traders focused on levels below 128.00. To investigate the bearish scenario, a decisive fall below 128.00 must be established. The pair may continue to fall into the next session, with bearish traders targeting the 127.00 area as a possible objective. As long as the 128.00 support level holds and the price is sustained above, more gains may be expected. A strong breakout of 128.50, on the other hand, would confirm that the rebound from 127.79 low has come to stay, bringing this low back into focus as a new bottom. EURJPY Short term Trend: Bearish The EURJPY is still trading bearishly from its October high of 133.47 on the 4-hour charts, and the intraday bias is still to the downside. If the resistance at 128.50 holds, a further drop is likely. A decisive rebound past 128.50, on the other hand, will consolidate on the entire rebound from 127.79 low level. The mid-term support turned resistance level of 130.00 will be the next level of contention. A break of revised support around the 128.00, on the other hand, might reverse the rebound and broaden the down leg from 130.00 with a new phase of the drop towards the mid 127.00 in the coming session.   Source: https://learn2.trade
    • Date : 25th November 2021. Market Update – November 25 – Solid US data lifts USD, Stocks, & Yields. USD (USDIndex 96.70) holds on at 16-mth highs; Strong set of US data yesterday GDP (2.1%) up a tick but missed by a tick, Claims (199k) at 52-yr low, PCE (0.4% m/m & 4.1% y/y), in-line & largest since Jan.1991, along with a big beat (5.9%) for GDP Price index, Durable Goods (0.5%) in-line, Personal Spending (1.3%) a big beat, Personal Income (0.5%) a beat, Trade balance a big beat (14.6%) on strong Exports, Inventories (-2.2%) a big miss, but shows demand is strong. Consumer Sentiment a beat and New Home Sales flat (745K) and missed. Stocks & Yields pushed higher, Oil held onto gains and Gold tested 3-week lows.   The FOMC Minutes showed (1) there could be a faster taper than the $15bn/mth currently planned, (2) Inflation could indeed be “persistent” (3) Clear division over 2022/23 rate hike cycle, Doves hold sway for now. US Yields 10yr trades at 1.644%, down from yesterday’s 1.694% high. Equities – Gains into the Holiday USA500 +10.76 (0.23%) at 4701 – USA500.F trades higher at 4713. USOil – peaked at $78.53 Inventories +1.0 vs -1.7 weakened prices – now at $77.65 Gold found a floor at 1782, but struggles to recoup $1800 at $1790. FX markets – EURUSD now 1.1216, having broken 1.1200, USDJPY now 115.36, from 115.50 & Cable back to 1.3350 from 1.3315 yesterday. Overnight – JPY PPI (1.0%) hit a 10-yr high, German GDP and consumer confidence both missed (1.7% vs 1.8% and -1.6% vs -1.0%) respectively. European Open – December 10-yr Bund future up 16 ticks, while US futures are slightly in the red. Bunds already outperformed yesterday, as EZ spreads widened in the wake of hawkish leaning ECB comments & confirmation that German finance ministry will go to the liberal FDP, which likely means more resistance to debt mutualisation across the EZ & more pressure on ECB to limit asset purchases. DAX & FTSE 100 futures are currently up 0.4% & 0.3% respectively & US futures are posting gains of 0.3-0.4%, suggesting markets are coping quite well with the prospect of less accommodative policies. Indeed, it seems to an extent that they welcome the CB’s acknowledgement that inflation risks could be less temporary than previously thought. Today – ECB Minutes, ECB’s Elderson, Schnabel, Lagarde and BOE’s Bailey Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) CADJPY (0.20%) The rally from Tuesday’s low under 90.00 has been sustained with 91.25 being tested earlier today. MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram rising & over 0 line, RSI 61, H1 ATR 0.077, Daily ATR 0.707. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • Date : 24th November 2021. Market Update – November 24 – USD & Yields Higher, Stocks Mixed, Oil Recovers. Trading Leveraged Products is risky USD (USDIndex 96.50) holds on at highs; EM currencies under particular pressure. (TRY lost 15% after Erdogan refused a rate rise). RBNZ raised rates but NZD fell (like the last time they raised rates!) JPY Inflation 2 ticks better than expected. USDJPY at January 2017 levels around 115.00. PMI data better across the globe, Stocks mixed in US & Asia, Yields bid, Oil recovered significantly and Gold pressured by yields. Biden invites Taiwan to its “Summit for Democracy”, WHO talks of additional 700k Covid deaths across Europe (Slovakia latest to talk lockdowns). US Yields 10yr trades at 1.667%, down from yesterday’s 1.684% high. Equities Mixed. Musk sold more stock, Banks & Oil majors lead. USA500 +7.76 (0.17%) at 4690 – USA500.F trades lower at 4684. USOil – rallied over 3% to $78.20 highs despite global strategic reserves being sold to cool prices. Gold found a floor at 1782, but struggles to recoup $1800 at $1790. FX markets – EURUSD down to 1.1245, USDJPY over 115.23, earlier now at 114.88 & Cable back to 1.3375. European Open – December 10-yr Bund future up 26 ticks, US futures also broadly higher. RBNZ delivered expected rate hike & markets seem to be scaling back fears of escalating inflation as even dovish leaning BoE & ECB members highlight risk of second round effects. ECB VP Guindos highlighted overnight that the drivers of inflation are becoming more structural, which adds to signals that the CB is finally ready to start reining in stimulus. DAX & FTSE 100 futures currently up 0.3% & 0.2% respectively. Today – Big data day ahead of Thanksgiving Weekend. – German Ifo, US Weekly Claims GDP, PCE, Durables, FOMC Mins. & ECB speak Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDJPY (-0.77%) RBNZ in-line but Dovish, sank from breach of 80.00 yesterday to 79.24, and 79.40 now. Faster MAs aligned lower, MACD signal line & histogram falling & below 0 line, RSI 35 & weak, Stochs OS. H1 ATR 0.17, Daily ATR 0.70. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • EURUSD HOVERS NEAR MULTI-MONTH LOW, UNDER 1.1250 LEVEL   EURUSD Price Analysis – November 24 Throughout the session, the EURUSD pair remained on the losing side and was last seen moving with considerable losses around the 1.1250-36 level. The announcement that the White House has opted to reappoint incumbent Fed Chair Jerome Powell for a second term sparked the recent strong dip. The spot is trading at 1.1253 at the time of writing, down 0.25 percent on the day. Key Levels Resistance Levels: 1.1525, 1.1422, 1.1300 Support Levels: 1.1200, 1. 1150, 1.1100 EURUSD Long term Trend: Bearish EURUSD has sunk to fresh multi-day lows, as seen on the daily chart, after extending the recent breach beneath the moving averages 5 around the 1.1300 level. This exposes the possibility of a deeper pullback and a re-test of the psychological support around 1.1200. Under the 1.1200 level, the euro’s underlying bullish attitude is in jeopardy. Overall, the EURUSD stays bearish while trading under the major horizontal support turned resistance and significant level at 1.1422. A breakout of the 1.1300 level, on the other hand, would aim for the 1.1350 level on the way to the 1.1400 zones. The fall of the 1.1200 zones, in the alternative scenario, is viewed as a bearish continuation indicator. EURUSD Short term Trend: Bearish The risk is weighted to the negative on the 4-hour chart, as the pair is developing below the firmly bearish 5 and 13 moving averages. Technical indicators have shifted to the downside, with negative levels. However, in the present scenario, the RSI has not yet reached oversold territory, allowing for more selling. On the upside, a break over the modest resistance level of 1.1300 might shift the intraday bias to neutral. On the downside, the 1.1200 zones provide initial support. The next important level of support is around the 1.1150 mark. If there are any more losses, the 1.1100 extension level of the low decline may be tested. Source: https://learn2.trade 
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