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The Little Book of Trading - Michael Covel.

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I copied this page from the book. I underlined a few sentences, the part i don't understand, and was wondering if any of you can help me out on this. Thanks. - Kim

 

On page 133-134.

 

Trend Following works on stocks, too, and who better to teach us than two guys who wrote a paper called, "Does Trend Following Work On Stocks?". It outline their strategy. They use a 10 ATR stop. ATR stand for "average true range". The true range is simply how far a stock moves in a given day, like standard deviation, but it includes the gaps---if a stocks gaps up or gaps down.

 

So for General Electric (NYSE:GE), it's average true range might be $0.80 right now. That is the typical daily move, including the gap. So they multiply the ATR by 10 and trail that from the purchase price, which is the all-time high. Their stops on average are about 28 to 30 percent away for a typical stock. For a really volatile stock, it might be 50 percent away. For a really quiet stock it might be as close as 10 or 12 percent.

 

The average true range measures the volatility of the stock in question, so your trailing stops loss is adjusted according to each stock's volatility. That type of thinking, a counter-intuitive system---that's what you want.

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When they say the purchase price is the all time high that could have been worded better. Typically a trailing stop is subtracted from the max favorable excursion which is the highest price following an event that defines the entry or same as saying the highest theoretical exit price that could have been achieved.

 

The generalizations about percentages are extrapolations based on the fact that the value of 10 units of ATR will increase or decrease simultaneously with an increase or decrease in volatility.

 

 

I copied this page from the book. I underlined a few sentences, the part i don't understand, and was wondering if any of you can help me out on this. Thanks. - Kim

 

On page 133-134.

 

Trend Following works on stocks, too, and who better to teach us than two guys who wrote a paper called, "Does Trend Following Work On Stocks?". It outline their strategy. They use a 10 ATR stop. ATR stand for "average true range". The true range is simply how far a stock moves in a given day, like standard deviation, but it includes the gaps---if a stocks gaps up or gaps down.

 

So for General Electric (NYSE:GE), it's average true range might be $0.80 right now. That is the typical daily move, including the gap. So they multiply the ATR by 10 and trail that from the purchase price, which is the all-time high. Their stops on average are about 28 to 30 percent away for a typical stock. For a really volatile stock, it might be 50 percent away. For a really quiet stock it might be as close as 10 or 12 percent.

 

The average true range measures the volatility of the stock in question, so your trailing stops loss is adjusted according to each stock's volatility. That type of thinking, a counter-intuitive system---that's what you want.

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Thank you for your answer. The all-time high statement did confuse me. So now I'm going to try do some math here.

 

Let's say GE is at $20.

ATR is $0.80.

$0.80 x 10 = $8.00

Trailing Stop = 30% of $8.00 = $2.40; $20.00 - $2.40 = ($17.60)

 

Did I calculate the trailing stop correctly?

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Thank you for your answer. The all-time high statement did confuse me. So now I'm going to try to do some math here.

 

Let's say GE is at $20.

ATR is $0.80.

$0.80 x 10 = $8.00

Trailing stop = 30% of $8.00 = $2.40; $20.00 - $2.40 = ($17.60)

 

Did I calculate the trailing stop correctly?

 

 

 

*second submit reply, guess the first one didn't go through I suppose*

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Thank you for your answer. The all-time high statement did confuse me. So now I'm going to try to do some math here.

 

Let's say GE is at $20.

ATR is $0.80.

$0.80 x 10 = $8.00

Trailing Stop = 30% of $8.00 = $2.40; $20.00 - $2.40 = ($17.60)

 

Did I calculate the trailing stop correctly?

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The authors reason for mentioning percentages appears to be based on a belief that it will make it easier for readers to relate to but my interpretation is the percentages are not part of the way he's calculating this particular trailing stop

 

If I chose to use 10 units of ATR as he suggests in the book and atr = .8 then 10 * .8 = 8. If entry price = 20 then the initial stop = 20 - 8 = 12. The trailing part of the stop enables the stop to follow price upward but not downward. So if price goes up while I still own it ...to for instance 24 and atr remains at .8 then the stop will increase to 24 - 8 = 16.

 

Thank you for your answer. The all-time high statement did confuse me. So now I'm going to try to do some math here.

 

Let's say GE is at $20.

ATR is $0.80.

$0.80 x 10 = $8.00

Trailing Stop = 30% of $8.00 = $2.40; $20.00 - $2.40 = ($17.60)

 

Did I calculate the trailing stop correctly?

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onesmith has got it right - ignore the percentages......

 

When they talk about "all time high" it was talking about it because that was what they used for the entry trigger.

Covel talks about (but controversially so - may or may not trade) long term trend trading....and often a measure to trigger an entry into an instrument is to buy recent new highs, or all time highs.

You could use the same ATR stops on any entry trigger method, however 10 ATR stops are likely to be considered very wide unless you are long term trend following

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Covel is a famous "can't trader" who made is his initial dollars selling a pathetically poor quality course based on the turtle trading system. Now he takes newbies by writing books. At least he doesn't post here yet.

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There is no value to reading Covel. Throw his book(s) away and look elsewhere.

 

Covel more quickly than most made the progression from wannabe trader to failed trader to vendor to wannabe traders.

 

No doubt his publicist will find this thread and he will soon post here - like anyone who depends on a perpetual stream of suckers rather than his own talents and abilities, he can stand no negative criticism. His inability to acknowledge his own shortcomings no doubt played a substantial role in his failure as a trader.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

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Covel is a famous "can't trader" who made is his initial dollars selling a pathetically poor quality course based on the turtle trading system. Now he takes newbies by writing books. At least he doesn't post here yet.

 

Another amusing trait is that, despite numerous books singing the praises of trend-following, I have watched him conduct webinars where he attempted to scalp crude from a one minute chart.

 

Nevertheless, his books on trend-following are well written and a good introduction to the subject, so I certainly wouldn't dismiss them just because Covel himself is probably a "can't trader".

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A simple litmus test for all gurus and so-called experts is to demand independently audited brokerage account statements from them. Makes for a very short list of authors worth following.

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:more hijacking and offtopic from OP: re Covel

 

Want to save some time and money?

Would you like me to teach you EVERYTHING you need to learn from all of Covel’s published works?

Here it is - In true trend trading, outliers ARE the edge.

 

ie a ‘real’ trend trader is not trying to improve entries, is not trying to prevent or diminish losses… he or she is simply entering positions with the trend and waiting for outlier moves - period…

 

EVERYTHING else Covel (or anyone else) says about real trend trading is superfluous (however inspirational, motivational, etc it may otherwise be)… no need to spend time and money on his promotions, books, and courses

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:Here it is - In true trend trading, outliers ARE the edge.

 

Which is why true 'trend following' systems tend to be stop and reverse, and always in the market, rather than the more complex breakout strategies associated with the Turtles etc.

 

I would suggest, however, that compounding of returns is also a key part of the 'edge' that trend-followers exploit - if you take away this aspect their returns are invariably dismal.

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Which is why true 'trend following' systems tend to be stop and reverse, and always in the market, rather than the more complex breakout strategies associated with the Turtles etc.

 

Precisely...

 

re:

...compounding of returns is also a key part...

Yes – for those who really thrive. Actually, due to the high loss counts, optimal sizing is much more important in real trend trading than “compounding”

However, didn’t get into that because across time I’ve found it best during development not to co-mingle edge work with mm work … best to limit the ‘edge’ concept to the systemic – entries and exits... then, post edge establishment, to layer money management models (sizing, compounding, etc.) onto the strong ‘edge’ footing .

 

re

...invariably dismal...

Real trend trading, sans any mm ‘tricks’, is an edge – provided the trader has enough staying power and a long enough life to wait for the outliers…

Compounding into a negative edge – now, that would be ‘invariably dismal’ :doh:….

using sizing (and compounding, mm in general) to compensate for marginal edge(s) takes a very specific and extremely rare type of mentality --- not recommended for ‘normals’ and noobs at all…

 

...nitpickin... to "do no harm"...

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However, didn’t get into that because across time I’ve found it best during development not to co-mingle edge work with mm work … best to limit the ‘edge’ concept to the systemic – entries and exits... then, post edge establishment, to layer money management models (sizing, compounding, etc.) onto the strong ‘edge’ footing .

 

That's interesting - I completely ignore money management when developing a system as well. If something doesn't work well with a single contract approach, then there is no edge there for the MM to improve.

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That's interesting - I completely ignore money management when developing a system as well. If something doesn't work well with a single contract approach, then there is no edge there for the MM to improve.

 

actually given that you think trend following is about outliers, then MM can be fairly important here....

Aim is to have the maximum amount on for an outlier.

 

It depends on what you are trying to achieve really. There are many ways to ride/play/enter/exit a trend. depending on what you wish to achieve.

stable steady returns....a potential hedge against other investments.....highly leveraged opportuniites into calamity/outliers.....

 

testing for 1 contract is interesting for entry v exit and effieiciency of these (for want of a better word play), however, its the pyramiding (and again this is another parameter) than can make a lot of difference. I have run some tests (rudimentary admittedly) which show pyramiding really works when it works and is slightly worse when it does not.

 

Another thing that needs to remembered with trend following is that often its diversification that helps a lot (especially with the compounding) and interestingly enough taking profits can also help (system dependent ;)).....The other thing a lot of people gloss over, which you mention with the always in the market.....all in or all out is difficult with size, scaling in out is often employed, hence the importance of MM. (The aim is always to get the meat and not just the scraps)

How many retail systems or any systems allow you to backtest portfolios PROPERLY - in terms of scaling, portfolio and concentration risk.....???

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more nit picking...:)

 

I was already off topic from the OP / joining in the bashing with the statement

"In true trend following, outliers ARE the edge"

Our expansion into the MM aspects(compounding, sizing, diversification, pyramiding) is even further off topic

Even if he covers MM in everything he releases, if Covel were reading this thread, he might bristle – understandably

 

There are many ways to ride/play/enter/exit a trend. depending on what you wish to achieve.

 

Trading With Trend

the ‘many ways’ to exploit trends is

Trading with the trend… ie

Trading utilizing the trend

it’s basically

Trading (with whatever means puts you in what most likely is the right direction)

ie the emphasis is on the ‘Trading” part… on trading decisions./ whatever to exploit the “many ways to ride/play/enter/exit a trend. depending on what you wish to achieve”… “scaling in out”… etc, etc the 10000 ways...

 

 

True Trend Trading

in true trend trading, the

“trading” part of the ‘sentence’ has virtually no emphasis

it’s basically

True Trend Trading

There are no “many ways to ride/play/enter/exit a trend. depending on what you wish to achieve” in True Trend Trading. There is no requirement to enhance, support, etc true trend trading with leveraging, compounding, sizing, diversification, pyramiding, scaling,

 

SUIYA, I’m not criticizing your thoughts about Trading with Trend. I’m just saying for those readers who might be interested in Covel – everything after post 7 in this thread is seriously off topic and then quickly careens into mishing up / lack of differentiation between Trading With Trend and True Trend Trading... enough for me to nitpick for the noobs' sake.

 

Why am I pounding on this distinction? True Trend Trading is the most recessive, undeveloped aspect of my trading. I am a Trading With Trend trader through and through… so … all the while I just ‘believed’ in true trend trading (before M. Covel was even out of high school, btw) My beliefs were supported by a great ride in the indexes through the nineties. But - belief is what you do when you don’t know. It took building cash / physical positions in the metals in the late nineties and watching them ‘outlier’ for me to know the difference between True Trend Trading and Trading With Trend

 

All the best

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more nit picking...:)

 

SUIYA, I’m not criticizing your thoughts about Trading with Trend. I’m just saying for those readers who might be interested in Covel – everything after post 7 in this thread is seriously off topic and then quickly careens into mishing up / lack of differentiation between Trading With Trend and True Trend Trading... enough for me to nitpick for the noobs' sake.

 

I would not think its nit picking so dont worry....but maybe I am missing something in the nuances.....

IMO.....

Trend following - is trading with the trend.....

Trend following can also be True Trend trading.

Covel seems more concerned with long term trend following.....what I think you are calling true trend trading. (????)

and while there is a mish mash.....thats trading :)

 

Maybe I should have written long term trend followers as opposed to just trend followers.

 

but I was a bit confused by your quote "There is no requirement to enhance, support, etc true trend trading with leveraging, compounding, sizing, diversification, pyramiding, scaling,"

 

There is never any requirement for any of these, but they do make a big difference in many systems, otherwise every CTA attempting such things should theoretically end up getting similar results.....but they dont. With all these variables/parameters as inputs in systematic (not discretionary) systems then they do make a difference.

 

If I am reading you right, maybe you are saying that this is largely irrelevant is True trend following (as opposed to trading) is more a mindset than a system.....

 

(I also dont think this is off topic at all..... If its about how or why one might be interested in the books - he also sells (or did) the turtle trend systems which do have all the trading parameters...,hence some of his controversy)

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maybe I am missing something in the nuances

If you or others find it best to leave the distinction between the two blurry, on a continuum, in your internal representations that’s fine. I can definitely see the continuum too. However, I’ve found it is best for me to make a very separate distinction between the two – at first because of my own challenges to include both and switching between the two. Then later through a increasing awareness of how watered down, pasty pabulumy, and “off topic” communication gets in discussions about trend in general... not very helpful ultimately in the Beginners Forum imo

 

True Trend Trading

-determine trend - to determine trend use the simplest, dumbest method you can imagine or as complex a method for determining trend you can devise… it must just be barely good, ie You’re method for determining trend does not have to be great!

-if up, go long

if dn, go short

-(pile up the losses and) wait for outliers - period

 

Trading With Trend

-includes every method that in any way considers trend but does not necessarily fully and totally and completely depend on trend

-includes trading in and out in the direction of the trend

-includes trading with “trend” direction in the back of your mind

-includes trading with “trend” direction part of the system … swing trading… top down multiple time frames… etc… etc…

 

Entries and exits ( targets, stops,etc) are increasingly precise going towards the ‘Trading With Trend ’ tail of the ‘continuum’ – no matter how they are derived ( arbitrary, PA, divergences, statistical/quant, fundamentals, news and events, whatever)

(… and yes a trade may, by chance, participate in an outlier move - but the day to day goal is to exploit day to day / non outlier opportunities)

Entries and exits!!! Wycoff, Hershey, Williams… to name just three examples that happen to pile up huge post counts on TL…Gann, Elliott, etc etc etc etc and others, and some not so famous xperts don’t pile up big post counts in TL, but ALL of them (and all of their re-inventors) are going for one thing!!!! - Optimal entries and exits!!!

…biases exuding all over the place going into a position …biases exuding all over the place going out of a position…

…considerations of contexts going in, considerations of contexts going out

…and, yes, “mindsets” are all over the place too. not two but thousands of different mindsets are involved here. Yes the mindset of True Trend Trading is different … but the mindsets of the thousands of varieties of Trading With Trend are all different too… All require different ‘mindsets’ because each has different heuristics.

...Ultimately, the ones who recover fastest win…(another dang ‘shortism’... a 'shortism' is a whole book in one phrase :lookout:)

 

Covel seems more concerned with long term trend following.....what I think you are calling true trend trading. (????)

…Maybe I should have written long term trend followers as opposed to just trend followers

Holding period / time frame is not a consideration at all in the points I’m trying to make….

 

 

hence some of his controversy

his “controversy” comes because he serially follows and reports examples of successful traders and managers (who got that way by mixing all the mm stuff in, btw – see below) and tries to make money off publishing about it. ie

his “controversy” comes from sliding all over the continuum we have been discussing - without admitting it.

his “controversy” comes because he utilizes stirring controversy, mixed in with ‘motivation speak’, etc. to make money off it…

so, in my first post, I just noted that nothing more is to be gained from his published material than from ‘wizard’ books or any other books that happen to have the “trend” word in the title or subtitle or introduction with the simple statement / 'shortism'

---- “In True Trend Trading, outliers ARE the edge.” ---

Obviously it was unsuccessful, but primarily my intention was to make clear that distinction between the two ways…and once you get that distinction you don’t need any more Covel …

 

re…

but I was a bit confused by your quote "There is no requirement to enhance, support, etc true trend trading with leveraging, compounding, sizing, diversification, pyramiding, scaling,"

 

There is never any requirement for any of these, but they do make a big difference in many systems, otherwise every CTA attempting such things should theoretically end up getting similar results.....but they dont. With all these variables/parameters as inputs in systematic (not discretionary) systems then they do make a difference.

 

We further careened doubly off topic by incorporating all the various MM stuff. It started with compounding. I added sizing. Then came pyramiding, etc…just the mentioning of MM weaves it into the very fabric what noobs see and have to deal with… pouring in dye about the benefits (and perils) of MM tricks clouds things even further. I went back and looked at the posts and , for me. it’s still not a stretch to see how many could read into it “Oh, it’s MM that gets trend trading over the top” . See how off topic plus more off topic we’ve gotten in the Beginners Forum ????

I really made the outrageous “is no requirement to enhance, support, etc” statement to pull it back to just one layer of off topic. The intention was to separate edge work from MM work. Also, most of us are writing without an editor on TL… and a bunch of us go for brevity in the extreme ...sometimes.

 

MM does makes a big difference in trading - not just in “many systems” or just in "systematic (and not discretionary)" systems – in ALL systems, including those way outside this topic that don’t factor in trend at all and even those that intentionally buck trend, etc. … However - (and this was also covered above)

First, a system must have positive expectancy to be an edge. No edge = no survival = out of business. To discuss how fund managers, etc. benefit from applying various MM techniques in general does nothing to clarify that or add to the topic- because each edge itself generates its own appropriate MM aspects ie you can’t just throw MM in general at trading. The correct sizing, compounding, pyramiding, scaling tricks of one system will not automatically transfer to other systems ie.. Functional MM cannot be developed independently from an individual system / edge or a 'portfolio' of edges. “mish and trade – that’s trading” at your own risk.

btw SUIYA, I’m trying to point something out to readers – not argue with you! So, noob readers, think about MM in general if you must … mish the tasks of edge development and MM development together if you like – good freakn luck :helloooo:

 

 

 

:haha: So would you like me (unsuccessfully for most) sum up all the MM books in the whole world??? Here goes another ‘shortism’ -

As a trader, you may survive and profit, but you will not thrive to the top top pareto in trading without cutting edge money management …

Unfortunately that one will not obviate your need to read and study the MM material, like my first “shortism’ obviated the need to read all the Covel in the world :roll eye: :rollbrains: etc :roll eyes:

 

 

 

short story...

Engineers in a company meet to work out some details of one specific process. Because a bit of controversy is attached, some senior people show up - uninvited and unannounced, of course. After that issue is resolved, a group stays to discuss the direction the company is headed. Some see the choice as two distinct directions the company could take – functionally, etc. Others see it all as a continuum… no need for any re-vision-ing or specializing… it’s all just general business…

 

Long story short - rather than stay on the question of the two directions, the conversation is pulled increasingly to the multitude of varieties and idiosyncrasies within just one of the directions. When some of the participants attempt to steer the conversation back to the central topic of company direction, the CFO and his posse step in to try to dominate the conversation with issues aout finance … feathers are ruffled, etc. etc. … stuff… corporate stuff… business stuff…

“This is stupid” is secretly running through the minds of many… hopefully a few turn in resignations and go do their own more focused startup…

 

it’s the ongoing battle

“nothing is off topic in here. path of least resistance is how we roll”

VS

“don’t give the devil a ride, he’ll want to drive”

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    • Date : 27th October 2021. Market Update – October 27 – Yields up,Robust USD. USD (USDIndex 93.84) – topped at 94 before retracing to 93.84 in Asia session.Wall Street rallied to more new highs on the USA500 and USA30, with the USA100 closing in on its peak, before gains faded. Solid earnings continued to underpin optimism, and stronger than expected confidence and housing data helped too. – rekindled Fed tightening fears. The long end of the market saw yields dip, overlooking the inflation jump as the longer term outlook is still benign. The 10-year Treasury yield has moved up 1.4 bp to 1.622%. Australia’s 10-year rate moved up and the 3-year jumped nearly 16 bp after core inflation came in higher than anticipated and reached a 6 year high in data for the third quarter. FT: Alphabet and Microsoft smash estimates with $110bn revenue haul (+33% from Q3 2020) – surge in cloud computing, and a strong rebound in digital advertising – all eyes on US open. Big misses from Robinhood, tanking its shares – closed at 40.09. Evergrande in focus again as authorities called on billionaire Hui Ka Yan to use his personal wealth to support China Evergrande Group. Chinese authorities called on companies to make “active preparations” to meet payments on offshore bonds. – sell-off in seven weeks for Chinese tech shares. German import price inflation hit 17.7% in September – The breakdown showed that energy prices remain the main driving factor, & that the shortage of natural gas and the spike in oil prices are not the only problems hitting supply chains, with supply shortages likely to keep prices elevated into next year. USOil steadied around $82 – $83. Gold dipped on robust USD, higher yields and ahead of central banks, at $1785. FX markets – EURUSD 1.1600, Cable bounced 1.3774, USDJPY – 114 from 114.30. Today – US Durables and BoC rate decision and conference. Earnings: Thermo Fisher, Coca-Cola, McDonald’s, Sony, ServiceNow, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Boeing, GlaxoSmithKline, ADP, GM, Old Dominion, CME, Edwards Lifesciences, Norfolk Southern, Twilio, Ford, General Dynamics, KLA Corp., eBay. Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) AUDUSD (+40%) – spiked at 0.7535, faster MAs rising and RSI at 60. Fast MACD signal line & histogram keep rising, implying further rise in the short term. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • Date : 26th October 2021. Market Update – October 26 – Bonds and stocks rallied to start the week. USD (USDIndex 93.89) – first rate hike was pushed up to June, with two quarter point tightenings priced in for 2022. Wall Street firmed too on the back of strong earnings with more new record highs on the USA500 and the USA30. Also underpinning sentiment are expectations that the fiscal package will make it out of Congress. Fed Chair Powell warned that inflation could be higher and more persistent than previously expected. US Yields – 10yr backed up 0.9 bp overnight to 1.64%. Equities mixed – USA100 paced the advances though, climbing 0.9% amid support from the slip in yields – 4582. USA100 bounced to 15602. Facebook reported mixed third quarter earnings on Monday, slightly missing revenue estimates but continuing to grow its user base. FB +2%. TSLA (+12.6%) joins the$1 trillion market cap group after 11 yrs – took AMZN 22 yrs. It’s bigger than the combined value of the next 9 biggest car makers but it sells less than 1% of world car sales. Elon Mush added $36BN to his net wealth yesterday alone. UBS beats on revenue – but sales are mixed. USOil holds up again on supply concerns & trades close to 7-year highs at $82.50. Gold spiked at $1808. FX markets – EURUSD 1.1600, Cable bounced 1.3778, USDJPY – reversed from 113.97 highs to PP at 113.86. European Open The December 10-year Bund future is down -20 ticks at 168.45, underperforming versus US futures, although in cash markets the US 10-year rate is down from overnight highs, but still up 0.4 bp at 1.63%, as a 0.5% gain in the USA100 is leading US stock futures higher. GER30 and UK100 are posting gains of 0.2% and 0.1% at the moment, after a somewhat mixed session across Asia. Today – Upcoming central bank decisions will remain in focus, with ECB and BoJ set to announce their decisions on Thursday. Earnings: Microsoft, Alphabet, Visa, Eli Lilly, Novartis, Twitter, General electric, UBS, Robinhood. Today’s economic calendar will be of interest as well, and features October consumer confidence and September new home sales. Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) NZDJPY (-0.28%) Reversed overnight gains from 81.88 high tp currently 81.50 area. Faster MAs, RSI & Stochastic turned lower, while in contrast MACD signal line & histogram keep rising, implying to a potential limited pullback. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • Date : 25th October 2021. Market Update – October 25 – Big Earnings Week Ahead, USD Cooler. USD (USDIndex 93.50) cools a tad & again tests 4-wk low (93.44). PMIs biased to the upside as Powell talked taper but no rate rises yet, Democrats narrowed their differences on the $3.5b infra bill & Yellen talked new taxes. Yields hold up, Equities mixed Friday, FUTS down. Big week for Earnings – Oil up again on supply concerns, gold back to $1800. Evergrande – Restarted 10 building projects over weekend, announced move away from real estate towards EV production. US Yields (10yr closed higher at 1.665) & – now 1.6500% Equities mixed – USA500 -4.88 (-0.11%) at 4544 (NASDAQ –0.82%) – Big movers – SNAP -26.59% & INTEL -11.68%; Big Earnings misses, FB -5.05%, GOOGL & AMZN –3%, TSLA +1.75% – USA500.F back to 4540. Asian equities weaker. USOil up again on supply concerns & trades close to 7-year highs at $83.00 Gold very volatile Friday ($1782-$1813-$1793 on close) Back to pivot at $1800 now. FX markets – EURUSD 1.1650, Cable 1.3770, & USDJPY – (after a strong day on Friday (113.40 low) now at 113.60. Week Ahead Earnings from 5 x tech giants (FB today), plus major European Banks. Policy meetings from the ECB, BoJ & BOC, economic data includes US Q3 GDP & PCE. Plenty of CB speak, the UK Budget and month end too. European Open December 10-yr Bund future up 23 ticks at 168.51. DAX & FTSE 100 futures up 0.15% & 0.25% respectively. Inflation risks remained in focus as oil prices continue to climb higher while bottlenecks in supply chains lead to rising cost pressures. The combination already weighed on manufacturing PMIs last week & are likely to also depress the German Ifo confidence reading today ahead of Thursday’s ECB meeting. Fed Chair Powell signalled on Friday that inflation could stay higher for longer & that the taper is coming. ECB by contrast has pushed decisions on PEPP & APP back to the December meeting, which means this week’s ECB will be watched mainly for signals from Lagarde at the press conference. TToday – German IFO and BoE’s Tenreyro. Earnings: Michelin, Facebook, Restaurant Brands. HSBC surprises with 74% rise in Q3 profit and $2bln buyback. Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) AUDJPY (+0.45%) Recovering from a strong day run fro JPY last week. Up from 84.50 tlow on Friday to test 85.00 now. Faster MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram rising, RSI 51 & neutral. H1 ATR 0.189, Daily ATR 0.817. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • Date : 21st October 2021. Market Update – October 21 – Stocks & USD slip on big Earnings Day. USD (USDIndex 93.55) cools a tad and again tests 2-week low (93.47) Yields stronger again, Equities closed up, but FUTS are down (Nikkei -2% on stronger YEN and Yuan). Big day for Earnings – TESLA beat but revenue numbers disappointed some. Oil up on drawdown. Evergrande – Bad News $1.7bn sale of 51% of HK unit to Hopson OFF, $1.7bn sale of HK HQ OFF, $83.5m coupon default triggers tomorrow. Good News $260m bond coupon, extended by 3 mths US Yields (10yr closed higher at 1.63) & – now 1.6533% Equities moved ground higher USA500 +16 (+0.74%) at 4536 (NASDAQ –0.05%) – Big movers – Verizon +2.41% & ABBT +3.3% (PayPal – 4.91%) – USA500.F back to 4500. Asian equities weaker. New VIX contract at +1.49% at 19.60 USOil up on drawdown n strong demand at $82.00 after EIA inventories showed -400K vs build of 2.1m Gold holds at 4-day highs – $1785 FX markets – a recovering USD – EURUSD 1.1646, Cable down from 1.3830+ to 1.3800, & USDJPY – off 4-year highs and pivots at 114.00. European Open The December 10-year Bund future is down -16 ticks, US futures are also in the red. DAX and FTSE 100 futures are both down -0.45 and US futures are also in the red, with the NASDAQ underperforming again, after already closing slightly lower yesterday. Indices remain at high levels, but tapering concerns, the global energy rout and supply chain concerns are capping the outlook for global growth. Markets will continue to watch earnings reports and central bank comments, especially in the UK where officials clearly are laying the ground for an early lift off. Meanwhile the announcement of Weidmann’s departure has raised hopes that the ECB will push even more to circumvent the no-bailout clause permanently – after the end of PEPP, which already helped BTPs to outperform yesterday. Today – US Initial Jobless Claims, Philadelphia Fed Business Index, Existing Home Sales, EZ Consumer Confidence, EU Council Meeting, Fed’s Daly, Waller, RBA’s Lowe, Earnings: AT&T, Intel, American Airlines, Southwest Airlines, ABB, (bottleneck problems) Vivendi, Hermes, (beat) Pernod Ricard,(beat) Barclays, (Revenue big beat) Unilever (Sales miss). Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) AUDJPY (-0.50%) Rejection of 86.25 this morning as Yen lifts after a very weak October. Faster MAs aligned lower, MACD signal line dips and & histogram slips significantly lower, RSI 40.00 off OS level, H1 ATR 0.189, Daily ATR 0.817. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • Meet a maverick on Blockster   Blockster is a cryptocurrency social platform.   Blockster connects everyone within the blockchain industry into one place—all the cryptocurrencies, the teams behind the projects, as well as, the traders and investors. Communicate and network with the very core of the blockchain industry, and stay ahead of the market trends via Blockster.   Get insightful posts, reviews, breaking news, interesting comments, and latest updates from the world of cryptos, from Azeez Mustapha: https://blockster.com/AzeezMustapha46102 
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