Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

Obsidian

CoT Charts

Recommended Posts

nice to see some COT discussion. One of my old favorites...and still the best thing i've found to act as an "indicator" of impending trend reversals... not just retracements.

 

Wanted to post up a link to the CAD futures COT chart here... i'm kinda thinking... maybe it's not a really good idea to get sooperlong the XXX/CAD markets.

 

Here's the link... I'd be interested to hear any thoughts on the chart...one way or the other:

 

http://www.upperman.com/mprof/p17.gif

 

FTX.

 

DISCLAIMER: "in the interest of full legal disclosure, the accounts of ForexTraderX are currently short the CAD against several other G8 currencies. This disclosure is offered to prevent confusion or hurt feelings in the extremely likely event that ForexTraderX dumps his position in CAD short just as your long CAD stop is hit. The accounts of ForexTraderX and the family of ForexTraderX thank you in advance."

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Agree with your bias but, as always, the COT is an indicator and you still have to time your trade. Now, this an extreme!

BTW do you think Upperman a better teacher on the subject than Larry Williams?

 

 

nice to see some COT discussion. One of my old favorites...and still the best thing i've found to act as an "indicator" of impending trend reversals... not just retracements.

 

Wanted to post up a link to the CAD futures COT chart here... i'm kinda thinking... maybe it's not a really good idea to get sooperlong the XXX/CAD markets.

 

Here's the link... I'd be interested to hear any thoughts on the chart...one way or the other:

 

http://www.upperman.com/mprof/p17.gif

 

FTX.

 

DISCLAIMER: "in the interest of full legal disclosure, the accounts of ForexTraderX are currently short the CAD against several other G8 currencies. This disclosure is offered to prevent confusion or hurt feelings in the extremely likely event that ForexTraderX dumps his position in CAD short just as your long CAD stop is hit. The accounts of ForexTraderX and the family of ForexTraderX thank you in advance."

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Agree with your bias but, as always, the COT is an indicator and you still have to time your trade. Now, this an extreme!

BTW do you think Upperman a better teacher on the subject than Larry Williams?

 

Ya, your right Kuokam about the timing. It's great for magnitude and reversal (as opposed to just retracement), but bad about timing.

 

Buuuuut... the longer term chart price action i'm seeing on a variety of major currencies priced against the CAD is looking pretty good as well, and against the comdolls in general look good (I mean daily, weekly, and monthly charts)

 

Don't want to take away from the thread here being COT, so i'll leave that for another time and place... but, yea. I think timing is right about now for the CAD... ESPECIALLY considering the Bank of Canada's recent dovish talk, "accomodative policy" blah blah...and the increased expectation that they will lower their interest rate, that WILL be the likely catalyst for a CAD short squeeze of record proprotions. And... I think they are meeting this week? So... anyway. Been short cad this week, up over 100 pips in some pairs (I have more than 1 trade on shorting CAD), and I'm in no rush to take more profits yet... next stop, 150 - 200 pips.

 

Ok, a little luck here, of course... but just saying there are more reasons than COT alone for my belief here.

 

As far as Upperman... I didn't even know that was a guy, or that he teaches COT. I know of larry williams, and believe he is very good. But have no direct familiarity with his work. Couldn't help you there.

 

FTX

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I don't trade CAD but if my calendar is up to date, the next rate statement is next week on the 23.

 

 

Ya, your right Kuokam about the timing. It's great for magnitude and reversal (as opposed to just retracement), but bad about timing.

 

Buuuuut... the longer term chart price action i'm seeing on a variety of major currencies priced against the CAD is looking pretty good as well, and against the comdolls in general look good (I mean daily, weekly, and monthly charts)

 

Don't want to take away from the thread here being COT, so i'll leave that for another time and place... but, yea. I think timing is right about now for the CAD... ESPECIALLY considering the Bank of Canada's recent dovish talk, "accomodative policy" blah blah...and the increased expectation that they will lower their interest rate, that WILL be the likely catalyst for a CAD short squeeze of record proprotions. And... I think they are meeting this week? So... anyway. Been short cad this week, up over 100 pips in some pairs (I have more than 1 trade on shorting CAD), and I'm in no rush to take more profits yet... next stop, 150 - 200 pips.

 

Ok, a little luck here, of course... but just saying there are more reasons than COT alone for my belief here.

 

As far as Upperman... I didn't even know that was a guy, or that he teaches COT. I know of larry williams, and believe he is very good. But have no direct familiarity with his work. Couldn't help you there.

 

FTX

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I don't trade CAD but if my calendar is up to date, the next rate statement is next week on the 23.

 

Next week then you say? Ok... well, guess I'll continue to look for CAD shorting opportunities between now and then.

 

IMO, the degree of "net shorts" we've seen in the euro until just before the bottom a few months ago, and the overall large scale devaluation of the euro against the comdolls since the financial crisis, and the record setting net longs seen in the CAD right now., I think the EUR/CAD is best long bet out there right now (of the G8 currency pairs), for longer term trades, and I'm thinking we'll retest 1.4000 or higher in the next 12-18 months.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It might be time to buy the metals. The specs increased positions, and open interest is up as well. But that of silver at a long term high. Does that mean anything?

 

E-mini SP500, 2 year & 10 year treasury notes:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Topics

  • Posts

    • Date: 8th May 2024. Market News – Stocks mixed; Yen support still on; Eyes on NFP & Apple tonight   Economic Indicators & Central Banks:   As the Fed maintained a “high-for-longer” stance, stocks gave up their gains with attention turning back to earnings. Chair Powell and the Fed were not as hawkish as feared and the markets reacted immediately and in textbook fashion to the still dovish policy stance. The Fed flagged that recent disappointing inflation readings could make rate cuts a while in coming, but Fed chief Jerome Powell characterized the risk of more hikes as “unlikely,” giving some solace to markets. Stocks traded mixed across Asia, while in Europe, DAX and FTSE futures are finding buyers and US futures are also in demand, after the Fed’s message. Yen: Another suspected intervention by authorities, this time in late New York trading, ran into resistance from traders keen to keep selling the currency. Swiss CPI lifted to 1.4% y/y in April from 1.0% y/y in the previous month. Headline numbers are still at low levels and base effects play a role, with the different timing of Easter this year also likely to distort the picture. That said, the numbers may not question the SNB’s decision to cut rates, but they do not support another rate cut in June. Financial Markets Performance:   The USDIndex has corrected to 105.58, but USDJPY is already inching higher again, after a sharp drop to a low of 153.04 on Tuesday that sparked fresh intervention speculation. The pair is currently trading at 155.38. Treasury yields plunged and were down over double digits before profit taking set in. USOIL finished with a -3.6% loss to $79.00, the lowest since March 12. Currently it is as $79.53. Gold was up 1.4% to $2319.55 per ounce, reclaiming the $2300 level. Market Trends:   Wall Street climbed initially with gains of 1.4% on the NASDAQ, 1.2% on the Dow, and 0.96% on the S&P500. The NASDAQ and S&P500 closed with losses of -0.3%, while the Dow was 0.23% firmer. The Hang Seng rallied more than 2%, and the ASX also posting slight gains, while CSI 300 and Nikkei declined. Apple’s earnings report is due after the US market closes today, will give investors a better sense of how the iPhone maker is weathering a sales slump, due in part to a sluggish China market. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • Date: 7th May 2024. Dow Jones Close To 1-Month High, Eyes on Disney Earnings. The stock market trades at a 3-week high after significant support from the latest earning reports and US employment data. Economists continue to expect a rate cut no earlier than September 2024 despite the US unemployment rate rising to 3.9%. The US Dollar Index trades higher on Tuesday and fully corrects the decline from NFP Friday. Dow Jones investors wait for Disney to release their latest quarterly earnings data. The stock holds a weight of 1.93%. USDJPY – The US Dollar Regains Lost Ground The USDJPY is an interesting pair on Tuesday as the US Dollar is the best performing currency within the market while the Yen is witnessing the strongest decline. Investors will continue to monitor as we enter the European Cash Open to ensure no significant changes. The exchange rate has been declining since the 29th of April when the Japanese Government is believed to have intervened and strengthened the Yen. However, the US Dollar has been gaining over the past 24 hours. During this morning’s Asian Session, the exchange rate trades 0.44% higher. Currently the only concern for the US Dollar is the latest employment data which illustrates a potential slowing employment sector. However, investors are quick to point out that this cannot be known simply from 1 weak month. This is the first time the NFP data read lower since November 2023. No major data is in the calendar for the next two days which can influence the US Dollar. Despite the weaker employment data and lower wage growth, investors continue to predict a rate cut no earlier than September 2024. This is something which can also be seen on the CME FedWatch Tool, which shows a 34.3% chance of rates remaining unchanged in September. In regard to the Japanese Yen, most analysts expect the next rate increase in the second half of this year depending on a stable movement of inflation. In addition, investors are monitoring the actions of financial authorities, expecting new currency interventions from them against a weakening Yen. This is the main concern for investors speculating against the Yen. However, economists continue to advise the Yen will struggle to gain even with a small rate hike, unless the rest of the financial world starts cutting rates. USA30 – Investors Turn To Disney Earnings Data! The Dow Jones is close to trading at a 1-month high and is also trading slightly higher this morning. The index recently has been supported by the latest employment data which indicates a higher possibility of rate cuts by the Fed. Today investors focus on the quarterly earnings report for Disney. Disney stocks are trading 0.37% higher during this morning’s pre-trading hours indicating investors believe the report will be positive. So far this year the stock is trading 28.40% higher and is one of the better performing stocks. Yesterday, the stock rose by 2.47% but remains significantly lower than its all-time high of $197. Currently analysts believe the earnings data will either be similar to the previous quarter or slightly lower. If earnings and revenue read higher, the stock is likely to continue rising. The stock is the 22nd most influential stock for the Dow Jones and will only influence the USA30 and USA500, not the USA100. Currently, technical analysis continues to indicate a strong price sentiment. The price trades above the 75-bar EMA and above the VWAP. In addition to this, the RSI is trading at 68.11 which also signals buyers are controlling the market. The only concern for traders is retracements. A weaker retracement could decline to $38,703, whereas a stronger retracement can fall back to $38,571. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Michalis Efthymiou Market Analyst HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • ECL Ecolab stock breakout, from Stocks To Watch, https://stockconsultant.com/?ECL
    • COST Costco stock nice breakout follow through, https://stockconsultant.com/?COST
    • $DG Dollar General stock possible downtrend reversal, attempting to move higher off the 136.7 triple+ support area, https://stockconsultant.com/?DG
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.