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slick60

EURUSD Et Al Trading

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The hourly quarters chart is now showing a head and shoulders pattern (ref post #97) that has now been retraced. Is it finished at this point? An EW pattern is complete if it does not get extended and we may now move south from here continuing with the retrace of the big up move from Feb 13. Using the H & S projection of a broken neckline we can look to the 1.2850 to 1.2975 quarters for possible retrace levels. If it moves in this manner then I look for completion by Feb 6, or earlier if a turn is due.

Nothing to say the hedgies will not drive it higher.

Note how the quarters come into play time after time. You should be catching on to these levels by now.

 

2012-02-01_0641 - slick60's library

 

Happy trading everyone slick

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Wow! This market is relentless. Only one thing comes to mind, and that is recent webinars that I have watched about trading with the market makers. None of the technical signals work. Elliott wave blows. Support and resistance - ha! Crossovers suck. You name it and it is not working. When these guys with money wish to move the market - they do. They know how to get your account and they are trying hard for mine.

EW pattern has changed, morphed into something corrective again. The H & S is shot. What's left. Well Delta is still there at work for me.

I will bide my time waiting to see the footprints of the market makers and try to grab a ride with them. Other time frame money besides the day trader has obviously stepped into the market today hammering the dollar and grabbing all the majors against it. They will turn the market back over to the the MM soon if not already for awhile.

 

slick

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This currency market is like a game of chess to me. I am always trying to figure out what my opponent's next move will be. The game has changed. No longer is it straight forward with two minds meeting to do battle. Enter now Mr. Computer, take your ill gotten gains and pay someone with brains to make a program so you as a manager of other people's money no longer have to think. Get your bonus on the back of the taxpayer's money and strut around like a peacock. Geeeeeeeez, getting off topic here---

I have a 4 hour chart once again to post with a possible 5 wave / triple zig zag pattern that may come to fruition should the 1.3234 high be taken out. And it certainly looks like it will do that at present. Today may have been the 1st wave up in this move as shown on the chart. Three waves of equal length end in the area of 1.3385. This pattern has appeared in the past and may perform once again.

I have longer term Delta cycles due in the area shown. Will it come to pass? I await his next move so I can at least get his Queen - haha.

 

2012-02-01_1652 - slick60's library

 

Good luck folks. Let me know how you make out.

Slick 60

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This is my 4 hr chart showing equality in moves and projected time points to look for. It is a messy chart - because I have all this mess on it trying to show you. After I post the mess will be gone. Note the 50% of moves for the impulse areas and the equality of each move so far. Will it continue to fruition? Only time will tell. My best estimate of direction at present lies within these delta time points. I mentioned the inversion period in a previous post so the odds and even numbers can change sides still if price says so. This chart is certainly not as bad as a lot I have seen but is a bit too busy for me.

 

2012-02-02_1114 - slick60's library

 

Catch a ride folks when you know where the train is going!

 

slick60

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Interesting Aussie Dollar chart

For anyone trading the AUDUSD you are probably aware that we are at a pretty important level with relation to the resistance high that we are at for the 3rd time since last September. However important it may be will be seen. It also appears that we are running out of time in the near future as this cycle appears to be nearing an end. The chart shows the intermediate and medium term delta cycle highs are due in the very near future. Maybe time to tighten up those stops or take some profits off the table.

 

2012-02-02_1338 - slick60's library

 

slick60

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Updating AUDUSD

I was away most of Friday. Crazy upside down day with respect to the NFP release. Great short opportunity in the first couple minutes. I watched and cried because I had to leave in about 5 minutes time and could not commit to a trade at that point. There will be other days I'm sure.

I would like to update my Aussie post with a chart showing ominous consideration. We looked above the triple top resistance on Friday and are at a crucial juncture with regard to delta cycles as the chart will show. Will we go higher - quite possibly, but I will be viewing any push north probably to be an excess high at this time. We are due for a correction in the aussie and it will take 4 to 6 weeks at least. Will it be sideways or straight down. Wish I knew for sure - price will determine that. Is there any good news on the horizon to create an opportunity for the market makers to roll over the last of their longs and start the move short?

The currency market will be very interesting this week. Watch for signs of reversal. COT data for the AUDUSD shows a 5 to 1 ratio bulls to bears. Is this getting near an extreme?

 

AUDUSD daily 2012-02-04_0913 - slick60's library

 

Add 4hr chart with timing and possible price projection

http://screencast.com/t/MsVWwbpwyh42

 

slick60

Edited by slick60

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On an Aussie roll -

I have here another perspective of the AUDUSD on a weekly chart. Note also the Quarters lines that are marked and highlighted. Names of the quarters are on the colors. Note especially how the overshoot, which is a 75 pip quarter in relation to a Large quarter, comes into play. Currencies do trade in the quarters. They are support/resistance and targets to where the banks/commercial etc wish to make a move within specified economic conditions. Foreign exchange is not all speculative or willy nilly. There is some reason behind the moves. I feel the quarters theory reflects this quite well.

Also on the chart is shown the Medium Long Term Delta cycle in black points. This isa cycle solution of 18 points in 4 years. The red points are the Medium term delta whcih work within the MLTD and the Long Term cycles.

This is a different view a longer term focus of where we have been.

 

2012-02-05_1505 - slick60's library

 

See y'all down under mites

 

slick60

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I must apologize. I inadvertently called the 75 pip quarter line as the "Overshoot" in my post # 107. That is the name given to the 25 pip zone on either side of a large quarter. The 75 pip zones are in fact the "hesitation zones". Used to working with the hourly chart with the overshoot zones.

I'll bet nobody cared anyway - lol

 

slick60

taking memory therapy

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AUDUSD

A very good reason for the market to continue on its' upward path with the RBA maintaining the 4.25 % interest rate. So this to me creates a great opportunity for the market makers to finally roll over their long positions and start the correction south. As you can see on my daily chart we are running out of time in 3 delta cycles, the blue ITD, red Medium and the black Medium long term deltas. The next low is about the middle of March in the MTD and the MLTD into April. This is the "time" projection for a retrace. Where price is going to go at this time is still a mystery. We hit the 1.0822 high this morning, 3 pips off of the hesitation zone at 1.0825. It is still possible to go higher but I for one am only looking south for my opportunity with confirmation of a turn.

 

2012-02-07_0324 - slick60's library

 

slick60

 

I forgot to point out my dilemma of the ITD cycle at the inversion time of the cycle. This is shown by the question marks on the placing of the [1], 2 and 3 points. We still have either or at this time to me BUT I lean toward the 3 high coming in at this time.

Edited by slick60

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AUDUSD

Trying to hone in on a turn in this pair I look to my 4 hour chart with the SITD cycle on it. The chart will show a "4" point is due on the 9pm bar this evening. General rule in delta timing is if a turn is due the point will be on time or come early. It was this same cycle 4 point that was the turning high on Sept 1, 2011 at 1.0764. Coincidence? That high came in during the 1pm bar.

 

4hr 2012-02-07_0421 - slick60's library

 

Good trading everyone

 

slick

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AUDUSD

I think I see the first imprint of the market maker's footprint on this 15 minute chart. We came off the high in 3 waves down to a hammer low which appears corrective at this time. A 3 wave push higher to me will represent a good opportunity for a short position today. There was a nice divergent trade at the high BUT I was still in bed. Need to move to Britain or Australia I think.

 

15 min 2012-02-07_0437 - slick60's library

 

slick

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EURUSD

I am a little perplexed at this sideways action at retrace highs at present as are a lot of people I am sure. However this action says to me that the bigger money is distributing as possibly noted by the commercials in the last COT report. They do not wait for the final spike up to a high before they do their nasty deed to the retail trader but they do start the move. The large specs also started dumping their short holdings and that would be consistent with being wrong at reversal points as I have been taught. I look for an imminent high in here perhaps in the form of a spike. There should be a lot of stops resting above this big range. It should also suck in more longs with a sharp break above.

I want to point out on my chart the red MTD 10 point where it is due. This has been a very reliable delta point over the last 10 years. I have boxed in the area where that 10 point has come in during the past 10 years. This is quite a narrow target for a cycle that has 12 points in a lunar year. The latest it has come in is this Friday. BEWARE!

 

daily 2012-02-07_0533 - slick60's library

 

slick60

 

I see Uncle Ben Bernanke testifies at 10:00am today. He may be a spike maker????

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AUDUSD

Utopia for slick at this time in this pair would be to see the 1.0829 price hit for a high if we can hold this current low. It is a nice confluent number between the retrace on the 15 min chart together with a price projection on the 4 hr chart into an SITD cycle # 4 high. It would also be a 4 pip move above a hesitation zone.

Let's see if the forex gods are kind today!

 

2012-02-07_0620 - slick60's library

 

slick 60

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AUDUSD

Here is a shot of market profile in the Aussie with a difference. I have labelled the current EW count on it. You will not find too many market profilers that will do this kind of thing. Interesting how the patterns do pop up.

 

15 Min futures profile 2012-02-07_0750 - slick60's library

 

slick 60

 

The forex gods are toying with me again today. They would not give me Utopia - but almost so far - ha ha

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AUDUSD

I just gotta post this - and NO! it is not "PIE IN THE SKY"

This is a totally predictable trade that I would have taken had I not been in bed - go ahead and guffa et al because it will appear as hind sight to a lot of you. BUT think about this. What do you pay for margin to have a standard lot in audusd to get 10 bucks a pip? Is your cost more than 4 1/2 bucks?

This was a perfectly set up "trade the news" - opportunity - with the indicators that I show on this chart.

 

Something to ponder

 

2012-02-07_0826 - slick60's library

 

slick60

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AUDUSD

This is a hard wave structure to pin labels to. I am going to give it a try on my 4 hr chart attached. I am looking at a structure that is building an extended 3rd wave. There are 17 waves within that wave and we are coming to the last one. "Famous last words". Proportionally the waves all fib out near to what they should with the 1st and 5th waves and the 2nd and fourth waves related in each degree of structure. The area of 1.0875 comes into play as a potential high for this wave as can be seen on the chart. It is also the midpoint between the large quarters of 1.0750 and 1.1000. It appears this wave may complete into the next high which is due overnight. It will sync up with my Delta cycle count also and I look for a pullback before this market moves higher to perhaps the 1.1000 + area.

 

4 hr 2012-02-09_1352 - slick60's library

 

slick60

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AUDUSD

This is what drives EW prognosticators nuts. Possibility of failure in a 5th wave. It is an either or situation as I have shown on chart. We can be complete with a failed 5th wave of .618 times the first in this structure OR we may still be making a 1.618 (4)th wave retrace to the 1.0671 area with the final push still to the 1.0875 level. Monitoring what happens at the 1.0671 level is a BIG CLUE.

We had a time where "mass psychology" would push price to certain levels completing EW patterns. That was before the computer and the massive money "excess" that is now being manipulated about by governments and the institutions. I feel we have turned a corner in the EW theory where mass institutional programming has taken over from the mass psychology of man. And thus we end up with failures in final structures as was the case in the EURUSD on Friday the 13th-a failed 5th wave as previously noted.

Pushing near that price now - I wish to post for possible heads-up.

 

http://screencast.com/t/M4YIZWfP

 

slick60

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AUDUSD

It's just a bitch! Here is a profile chart (in hindsight somewhat) which shows what the market generated information was saying. And damn, I missed it being myopic wanting to get to bed early so I could be up for the European open at 2:00am est. Had supper early and was at the charts at 6:05pm last night. Saw the 6:15pm 15 minute bar look into the previous value area and then come out of balance and penetrate the naked POC that I had been monitoring all day. It never twigged on me as I rushed off to bed. I did accomplish one goal - I was up at 1:30am and started the computer to be ready for the European open. Shit! Down 100 pips.

There is a lot to learn and MAINTAIN to be a successful speculator in this game. Other than that be happy and try to scalp away your nickels and dimes.

I am getting tired of saying "There will be another time!".

 

http://content.screencast.com/users/slick60/folders/Jing/media/bffef6d5-16b4-4627-b8fc-1acbbea41103/2012-02-10_0542.png

 

Wishing you the best in trading

 

slick

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AUDUSD

Here is a daily chart of aussie showing quarter points and EW count as I see it at present. I feel we have completed the 3rd wave of 5 in this move that will take us back to the 1.1000 high area again. The count may be completely wrong but only time will tell. One thing that is right and will continue is the moves of currencies within quarter points. Generally when a Large quarter has been fulfilled, as was the case with the 1.0750 LQ, and price travels south back into the large quarter that it has just left it will attempt to travel to the next LQ. In this case that would be the 1.0500 LQ where a .618 retrace of the 3rd wave resides as shwon on the chart. I have highlighted and labelled quarter points that I feel will be in play over the next 4 weeks. I have also drawn a possible projected 4th wave flat and what it may look like. No telling with the crazy European/Greek ruse and dollar manipulation taking place price may zoom or slam dunk all over the place.

I like to show my reasoning for my opinions and not just an "I think" scenario. Perhaps someone out there may learn something from what I post - I hope so.

 

2012-02-12_1118 - slick60's library

 

slick60

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EURUSD

It had to be a given that Greece would come through and if they had not the EU still would be in the bailing mood. Let's face it folks. You cannot solve trillions of woes with billions of dollars / euros in this case. The world is bankrupt and just waiting to file chapter 11 papers. The U.S. dollar Empire is in tatters and has been for years. It is undergoing a transition of dollar devaluation. How long will it take for them to finally say uncle? It is scary stuff. I cry for the generations following me.

It appears to me this may be the opportunity that the big market makers were waiting for. Perception of the "world has been saved". Let us all rejoice and buy buy buy. Ha!

I would like to update a chart that I posted almost a week ago in #112 post. It appears to me that my MTD 10 high has come in and I feel the blue ITD 4 has arrived early. Certainly not cast in stone. The almost double bottom came in when the early ITD 3 was due and that is something I have found quite regular in the past when a point comes in early there will be weakness or strength shown at the normal cycle timing. That is the reason I feel we have the cycle count the way it is.

How far will we retrace now? We came up 4 pips shy of the 75 pip hesitation zone above the large quarter of 1.3250 and have now receded back below that LQ. That should signal a run to the 1.3000 LQ in the very near future. I will monitor the correction or continuation I believe south at this time.

Greece should come into play by the Ides of March with their bond payment and that may spark the next powerful leg north. We shall see in about 4 or 5 weeks where we are at.

 

2012-02-13_1852 - slick60's library

 

Happy trading everyone

 

slick60

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W A R N I N G ! ! PLATFORM MANIPULATION ! !

Want to make a quick post. Working here this morning with TradeStation for forex and Zen-fire powering my futures account through Mirus. Just before 5:00am a few minutes ago I get a pop-up from TS saying disconnected from TS and then a 2nd pop-up saying disconnected from trading desk. I smell what is up as in the past and check to see if my data connection is down. No. Zen-fire is running fine and I see a fast move up in the euro. Aha! TS is on the wrong side of the trade once again and need to position. Shut the feed off!

Bastards! Sure enough within about 2 minutes I am reconnected and all is well again. Only trouble is there was an approximate fast move north of 20 pips or so.

Yes Trade Station is now a free forex platform. And yes they are market makers taking the opposite side of your trade. And Yes they manipulate the shit out of their data feed. It is not enough to have your playbook in front of them - they still have to elbow you into the boards and take you out of the game.

Forex is not a fair arena to play in. And do not for a minute think that your broker is looking after you. He is the most unscrupulous SOB you would ever meet.

BEWARE!

 

slick

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