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I have heard that 95% or more of all traders ultimately fail.

 

Have you ever wondered why?

 

Most traders will tell you it was the system or method they were using. They'll also tell you they had a few bad trades they couldn't recover from. Or their dog chewed through the telephone cord just as their computer crashed, and they couldn't get out of a losing trade.

 

Everyone has a different reason, but when you hear enough of them, a pattern begins to develop. I believe most traders fail because they sabotage themselves.

 

The markets work differently from other investing opportunities. There is probably more freedom in the trading business than any other industry in the world.

 

You can do what you want, whenever you want to do it. You can trade 1 contract or 100. Buy the market or sell it; it's up to you. The only thing that holds you back is running out of capital.

 

Most people are not accustomed to that much freedom.

 

If you can't control the market, the only thing you can control is yourself.

Trading is also very different than the things we do on a daily basis. In everyday life we exercise some control over our environment. If a room is too dark we turn the light on. If we want to go somewhere, we jump in the car and turn the key.

 

In trading you can't control what the market does.

 

No matter how much you want the market to go in a certain direction, there is nothing you can do to force that to happen. You can't turn a key or flip a switch. Hoping, pleading, screaming... nothing will make the market do what you want it to.

 

Embrace the uncertainty - plan for the best and worst cases

 

One of the most important things you can do to avoid the mental sabotage is to understand the lack of control you have over the market, and plan for every trade. Now I don’t mean a trading plan like buy a contract and then close the position when the market trades higher. I mean a real plan. That includes specific entry points based on certain market movements or conditions. It means exit strategies for when things go right and for things go really wrong. It means placing limits and stops and keeping your emotions in check. If you have a roadmap for your day, you are less likely to fall into that trap of mental sabotage.

 

Remember: if you can't control the market, the only thing you can control is yourself.

 

Successful traders all understand and embrace this concept. Unsuccessful traders continue to try to make the market conform to their wishes.

 

Dear Larry,

"Just a short note to say thank you. These past few weeks have been a real eye opener for me and thanks to you I'm making more money trading the S&P's than ever. I've been trading the S&P's for over 5 years and never have I had as much fun and without the stress. Using just the "One Time Framing Technique" and the 80 Percent Rule, I have made over 5,400.00 dollars in the past four weeks. Just today your 80 Percent Rule netted me 2,150.00 dollars. Not only am I glad I didn't return your course, now you couldn't begin to pry it from my hands. Many, many thanks for everything."

 

William P. San Ramon, CA

"It's not brain surgery, you just follow the techniques and you can make money. Larry's Program really works."

 

Fred C. Amityville NY (Testimonial from The Secrets of Floor Traders Course.)

 

_______________

Larry Levin

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Interesting article. Thanks

 

The way I think about trading is accepting the loss before you trade. There is a random distribution between wins and losses. When you put money into a slot machine and you don't win, most people are not upset about the outcome, since they have accepted the loss before the handle was pulled. Trading is the same. Enter positions where you are prepared to accept the loss.

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Interesting article. Thanks

 

The way I think about trading is accepting the loss before you trade. There is a random distribution between wins and losses. When you put money into a slot machine and you don't win, most people are not upset about the outcome, since they have accepted the loss before the handle was pulled. Trading is the same. Enter positions where you are prepared to accept the loss.

 

I have found that NOT accepting losses works better for me. I have a bunch of signs that trades are turning bad, and I prefer to get out right away. I often exit with a small profit, rather than accept a loss.

 

I am of the belief that if you hit your stop loss, you did something wrong.

 

I have 8 set ups for entries, but over a dozen "Anti" set ups that either get me out of the market, or prevent me from getting in in the first place.

 

Willingness to accept losses, is how you get your account chewed up.

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I often exit with a small profit, rather than accept a loss.

 

 

So just for the record, Are you saying you never make a loss? and if you do make a loss you don't accept it. Does your broker accept your losses on your behalf?

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So just for the record, Are you saying you never make a loss? and if you do make a loss you don't accept it. Does your broker accept your losses on your behalf?

 

Everyone takes losses. But my mindset is not to just accept them. I fight to prevent them, or minimize them as much as I can. The market has to force a loss on me. I am not going to just let them happen.

 

This is a mindset I am talking about here. If you have a mindset where taking a loss is acceptable, then you are going to take losses, because you are complacent.

 

If you have a mindset where losses are unacceptable, you will do everything you can to avoid them. This mindset will have you exiting before a turning market becomes a loss, and exiting as quickly as possible if you are experiencing one. This helps keep your account from being chewed up.

 

Preventing losses, and having more reasons NOT to trade, than to trade is more important that how much you make on winning trades.

 

You can make more than you lose as much as you want, but if you allow too many losing streaks, with the idea that that one big one will more than make up for it, you will be drained before you ever get to it. So for me, my first goal is to do everything I can to not lose.

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Everyone takes losses. But my mindset is not to just accept them. I fight to prevent them, or minimize them as much as I can. The market has to force a loss on me. I am not going to just let them happen.

 

This is a mindset I am talking about here. If you have a mindset where taking a loss is acceptable, then you are going to take losses, because you are complacent.

 

If you have a mindset where losses are unacceptable, you will do everything you can to avoid them. This mindset will have you exiting before a turning market becomes a loss, and exiting as quickly as possible if you are experiencing one. This helps keep your account from being chewed up.

 

Preventing losses, and having more reasons NOT to trade, than to trade is more important that how much you make on winning trades.

 

You can make more than you lose as much as you want, but if you allow too many losing streaks, with the idea that that one big one will more than make up for it, you will be drained before you ever get to it. So for me, my first goal is to do everything I can to not lose.

 

 

Agreed. I think we are going around in a circle. My point is; you fully have to accept the the risk of the trade. By fully accepting the risk of a trade there is a possibility you may lose. We all have tools/signals that assist us in preventing such situations, but when it does happen, so be it. Trading is a business and you strive to be the best trader, just like an athlete strives to be the best athlete.

 

This is where I get off the bus.

 

Good Trading

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Agreed. I think we are going around in a circle. My point is; you fully have to accept the the risk of the trade. By fully accepting the risk of a trade there is a possibility you may lose. We all have tools/signals that assist us in preventing such situations, but when it does happen, so be it. Trading is a business and you strive to be the best trader, just like an athlete strives to be the best athlete.

 

This is where I get off the bus.

 

Good Trading

 

Yes, I can agree with that. Although accepting the risk, is different than allowing a mindset where you accept losses.

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If you have a mindset where losses are unacceptable, you will do everything you can to avoid them. This mindset will have you exiting before a turning market becomes a loss, and exiting as quickly as possible if you are experiencing one. This helps keep your account from being chewed up.

 

I understanding your point, but trading this way can also lead to the type of trading where any time the market goes against you just a little, or it comes to your entry after going in your favor a few ticks, you exit, and then miss what was otherwise a great trade.

 

I'm not saying one way is right or wrong, and I do agree that the best trades are the ones that go in our direction almost instantly and never come back. But when one is quick to pull the plug on a trade that has not yet had the opportunity to work or not, then it can lead to frustration.

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I understanding your point, but trading this way can also lead to the type of trading where any time the market goes against you just a little, or it comes to your entry after going in your favor a few ticks, you exit, and then miss what was otherwise a great trade.

 

I'm not saying one way is right or wrong, and I do agree that the best trades are the ones that go in our direction almost instantly and never come back. But when one is quick to pull the plug on a trade that has not yet had the opportunity to work or not, then it can lead to frustration.

 

Hmm. As much as we want to avoid losses or avoid missed opportunities, if either is your mindset when you're in a trade then I think you'll have issues. The way I see it is kinda like what was said in the op. You research your edge and you formulate a plan to take advantage of this edge. You watch an opportunity develop and decide to trade it. Once you are commited to a trade (and this can be before you pull the trigger), your job is not to make money or avoid losses. It is to trade your plan. You can lose money and have performed superbly or you can make money but have acted recklessly and stupidly. But if your mind is always drawn to the $, you'll not develop the ability to perform consistently.:2c:

Edited by TheNegotiator

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I understanding your point, but trading this way can also lead to the type of trading where any time the market goes against you just a little, or it comes to your entry after going in your favor a few ticks, you exit, and then miss what was otherwise a great trade.

 

I'm not saying one way is right or wrong, and I do agree that the best trades are the ones that go in our direction almost instantly and never come back. But when one is quick to pull the plug on a trade that has not yet had the opportunity to work or not, then it can lead to frustration.

 

Good point.....

I read a book over the weekend (the power of habit - Charles Duhigg -- not a bad read, light easy - more about the discoveries of how the brain works - its not a self help book) (plus two thumbs up for kindle - new toy....where have you been previously baby)

 

in it they talk about a section whereby casinos rigg the slots so that the "near" miss has a profound effect on people. Check out The Near-Miss Effect | Wired Science | Wired.com

 

as per usual its each to their own and what every works - probably why its always recommended to keep a journal to work out where your strengths and weaknesses lie.

 

Mental sabotage is a slippery little complex subversive little f....r. Stick to the evidence.

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Spearpoint, if you wouldn't mind, I would like to explore what you are saying a little further.

 

I've been trading for almost 10 years, mostly very unsuccessfully. After blowing out a small futures account, blowing out several paper accounts, moving on to stocks and seriously damaging that acct. (20% loss over 4 years), I am at the point of either giving up or doing something different - obviously. In my stock acct., I have never taken a loss on any single trade greater than 1% of my equity, and usually, it has been less than that - .5% for example. Thus, I've never had the "big" loss that wipes an acct. out. My losses have been a very long, slow bleed. I usually use a stop that appears to be at a logical point of S/R. When I use a bigger stop to give it "more room", the stop invariably gets taken out anyway. When I use a tighter stop, either it was correct and I am stopped out before a much bigger loss would have happened, or I get stopped out only to see the market run in the opposite direction. The end result is a "relatively" small loss wither way. The problem is that those small losses add up to big losses. Unfortunately, I have not had consistent or substantial gains to offset those.

 

Now, to your point, I would be interested in hearing further about how you avoid losses by your mindset. I have often had that thought, but have never done it because of the huge amount of trading info. saying to set your stop at logical points, give the trade room to work, don't take small profits, etc., etc.

 

Thanks for any addl. help you can offer.

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Spearpoint, if you wouldn't mind, I would like to explore what you are saying a little further.

 

I've been trading for almost 10 years, mostly very unsuccessfully. After blowing out a small futures account, blowing out several paper accounts, moving on to stocks and seriously damaging that acct. (20% loss over 4 years), I am at the point of either giving up or doing something different - obviously. In my stock acct., I have never taken a loss on any single trade greater than 1% of my equity, and usually, it has been less than that - .5% for example. Thus, I've never had the "big" loss that wipes an acct. out. My losses have been a very long, slow bleed. I usually use a stop that appears to be at a logical point of S/R. When I use a bigger stop to give it "more room", the stop invariably gets taken out anyway. When I use a tighter stop, either it was correct and I am stopped out before a much bigger loss would have happened, or I get stopped out only to see the market run in the opposite direction. The end result is a "relatively" small loss wither way. The problem is that those small losses add up to big losses. Unfortunately, I have not had consistent or substantial gains to offset those.

 

Now, to your point, I would be interested in hearing further about how you avoid losses by your mindset. I have often had that thought, but have never done it because of the huge amount of trading info. saying to set your stop at logical points, give the trade room to work, don't take small profits, etc., etc.

 

Thanks for any addl. help you can offer.

 

Are you sure you even have an edge?

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I understanding your point, but trading this way can also lead to the type of trading where any time the market goes against you just a little, or it comes to your entry after going in your favor a few ticks, you exit, and then miss what was otherwise a great trade.

 

I'm not saying one way is right or wrong, and I do agree that the best trades are the ones that go in our direction almost instantly and never come back. But when one is quick to pull the plug on a trade that has not yet had the opportunity to work or not, then it can lead to frustration.

 

Yes, I can agree on this. What I do, is have key signals that tell me to get out. For example, one thing I do a lot is look for divergence between the 4 bar moving average, and the outer bollinger band. If I see that, I exit.

 

Since I am only in to scalp small amounts anyway, this often ends my trade, and I don't care if it takes off again after the correction is over. I may, or may not get back in.

 

My average trade, both in sim, and real life is $80 to $90. That is all my wins and losses added up, and divided by the number of trades being counted. Since this is the case, I often exit as soon as I surpass that window either way, and call it a day.

 

I rarely make more than a couple hundred a contract. It seems the more I go for, the more often I lose.

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Spearpoint, if you wouldn't mind, I would like to explore what you are saying a little further.

 

I've been trading for almost 10 years, mostly very unsuccessfully. After blowing out a small futures account, blowing out several paper accounts, moving on to stocks and seriously damaging that acct. (20% loss over 4 years), I am at the point of either giving up or doing something different - obviously. In my stock acct., I have never taken a loss on any single trade greater than 1% of my equity, and usually, it has been less than that - .5% for example. Thus, I've never had the "big" loss that wipes an acct. out. My losses have been a very long, slow bleed. I usually use a stop that appears to be at a logical point of S/R. When I use a bigger stop to give it "more room", the stop invariably gets taken out anyway. When I use a tighter stop, either it was correct and I am stopped out before a much bigger loss would have happened, or I get stopped out only to see the market run in the opposite direction. The end result is a "relatively" small loss wither way. The problem is that those small losses add up to big losses. Unfortunately, I have not had consistent or substantial gains to offset those.

 

Now, to your point, I would be interested in hearing further about how you avoid losses by your mindset. I have often had that thought, but have never done it because of the huge amount of trading info. saying to set your stop at logical points, give the trade room to work, don't take small profits, etc., etc.

 

Thanks for any addl. help you can offer.

 

Well, this is a tough post to reply to. In the course I was going to sell, I layed out a 2 year training program, before you even think about trading real money, so there is no real answer that can be given in a quick reply to a post online.

 

That said, the absolute most productive thing i ever learned was from an old trader at the Merc, when i took some charting courses there back in the mid 90's.

 

He had stopped in at the beginning of the break to check in on the teacher. As we were leaving he was greeting everyone as they left the classroom for go find snacks, or water, or whatever. For some reason he and I, out of the entire class, struck up a conversation. In that, he told me that the secret was in the relationship between the bollinger bands, and the 3 main moving averages. He said this with a look on his face like he had just given me the secrets to the universe, and was sure it went right over my head.

 

It took me years of study, and forward testing (Not back testing. The live constantly fluctuating nature makes back testing useless in this case) to figure it out.

 

That short conversation was the prime, pivotal point that brought me from the realm of failure, to developing a solid, consistently successful system.

 

I have 8 main entry setups, both with, and counter to the trend, as well as a bunch of exit rules and reasons not to trade in the first place, These are based off of how the price bar, the moving averages and the bollinger bands relate to each other.

 

To best help you, I would suggest that you start watching the markets with just those indicators, in real time, so you can watch how they all relate to each other as time and action unfolds.

 

Because the price movement bends both the bollinger bands, and the moving averages back testing will not work. You will see a ton of setups in back testing, that you just can't see moving forward. You have to do your study moving forward, and watch it all unfold in real time to see the ones you would actually be able to catch for real.

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Are you sure you even have an edge?

 

No, I'm not "sure" of anything. I use a somewhat modified CANSLIM approach which utilizes Raschke's 3/10/16 MACD oscillator. Only trade with the trend, usually pullbacks but also breakouts after periods of consolidation.

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You will see a ton of setups in back testing, that you just can't see moving forward. You have to do your study moving forward, and watch it all unfold in real time to see the ones you would actually be able to catch for real.

 

Thanks for the reply. I agree with the statement above completely. Seeing setups of your plan in the past is really easy. The hard part is seeing them develop in real time, being patient for the correct setup, and not taking something that sort of looks like the setup just to trade.

 

I'm curious about your loss prevention plan though. Is that controlled by your setups and "anti" or, once you're in a trade, do you simply not stay in if it starts to move toward a loss?

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No, I'm not "sure" of anything. I use a somewhat modified CANSLIM approach which utilizes Raschke's 3/10/16 MACD oscillator. Only trade with the trend, usually pullbacks but also breakouts after periods of consolidation.

 

You have to have a strategy which resonates with your personality. Does it feel right? Then it has to resonate with your account size. You must have a comprehensive trading plan which covers as much as possible so you can properly implement your strategy. The bottom line is, if you don't believe in what you're doing it'll probably end in one way.

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Thanks for the reply. I agree with the statement above completely. Seeing setups of your plan in the past is really easy. The hard part is seeing them develop in real time, being patient for the correct setup, and not taking something that sort of looks like the setup just to trade.

 

I'm curious about your loss prevention plan though. Is that controlled by your setups and "anti" or, once you're in a trade, do you simply not stay in if it starts to move toward a loss?

 

I have exit rules, that basically tell me if the relationship between price, moving averages and bollinger bands changes (especially to previously established anti set ups), I exit regardless of any other factor. I do miss a lot of good run ups this way, but I feel preventing losses is much more important.

 

I wrote a whole chapter on what I call the "rubber band effect". To sum it up, there is support, resistance, and the tension on the rubber band. As far as i know, I am the only one that recognizes that the rubber band effect exists. It explains sudden price reversals that occurs even though the price never got to a support or resistance level. It also explains why these reversals are often faster and more powerfull than the price movement with the trend.

 

Learning to see them, is a whole other thing though. I would not even begin to know how to teach it.

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You have to have a strategy which resonates with your personality. Does it feel right? Then it has to resonate with your account size. You must have a comprehensive trading plan which covers as much as possible so you can properly implement your strategy. The bottom line is, if you don't believe in what you're doing it'll probably end in one way.

 

I agree with this statement completely. I believe I am finally in that strategy now, but have not mastered it. Mental sabotage issues are present as well. I've arrived here after exploring everything from Gann to Elliott Wave to pure TA to candles to Murray Math to MA crossover stategies to price pattern strategies, etc, etc. And yes, I realize that I've been down a crazy road. I'm settled on a strategy now, but still not sure that I can make it work successfully.

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I have exit rules, that basically tell me if the relationship between price, moving averages and bollinger bands changes (especially to previously established anti set ups), I exit regardless of any other factor. I do miss a lot of good run ups this way, but I feel preventing losses is much more important.

 

I wrote a whole chapter on what I call the "rubber band effect". To sum it up, there is support, resistance, and the tension on the rubber band. As far as i know, I am the only one that recognizes that the rubber band effect exists. It explains sudden price reversals that occurs even though the price never got to a support or resistance level. It also explains why these reversals are often faster and more powerfull than the price movement with the trend.

 

Learning to see them, is a whole other thing though. I would not even begin to know how to teach it.

 

Thanks. I understand what you are saying.

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    • Nice article send in here, do sharing other such articles and also share your experience of Forex Trading.
    • Never tried Forex Trading with software,  I am still learning. But someday, I would like to give it a shot. 
    • Date : 20th October 2021. Market Update – October 20 – USD bounces from 2-week low, Stocks & Yields higher. USD (USDIndex 93.70) recovers from test of 2-week low (93.47) Yields stronger, Equities closed strongly on good Earnings, Netflix beat big time (Subs 4.38m vs 3.86m. – globally now 213.6m) Squid Game watched in 142 million households in 94 countries. Biden expects a deal on infra budget, Chinese housing prices slow, and NK fired more missiles (non-ballistic today) into S. China Sea. US Yields (10yr closed higher at 1.6350) & touched 1.662 earlier – now 1.6495% Equities moved higher gaining momentum USA500 +33 (+0.74%) at 4519 (NASDAQ +0.71%) – Big movers – J&J +2.34% & APPL 1.18% – USA500.F higher into 4503. Asian equities higher (Nikkei +0.76%) VIX closed down again at 15.57 (a new 8-week low – VXN – (which measures Nasdaq volatility) – at lowest since February 2020) USOil down from 7-yr high, at $83.00 after private inventories – trades at $81.00 Gold holds at $1775 now from yesterday’s high of $1785 and low of $1767. FX markets – a recovering USD has – EURUSD 1.1640, Cable down from 1.3800+ after CPI data at 1.3785 & a weaker YEN, USDJPY – 4-year highs – 114.70. Overnight – UK CPI a tick weaker than expected (3.1% vs 3.2%) PPI in line. German PPI much stronger than expected @ 2.3% vs 1.1%. European Open – The December 10-year bund future is down 35 ticks, underperforming versus Treasury futures. Yields moved broadly higher across Europe yesterday and while ECB officials are doing their best to keep rate hike speculation at bay, they are fighting an uphill battle, especially as the BoE is preparing for an early lift off on rates. The surprise misses for UK CPI could dull the expectation. Today – EZ Final CPI, Canadian CPI, ECB’s Elderson, Fed’s Bullard, Earnings – Verizon, Tesla, IBM, Abbot, AMSL, Nestle (already out – a big beat especially for Pet food Division) Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) NZDCHF (+0.40%) 5th consecutive day higher today (from 0.6425) breached 0.6600 earlier, and testing 0.6630 now. Faster MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram trending higher, RSI 65.00 OB but still moving higher, H1 ATR 0.0008, Daily ATR 0.0054. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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