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Podcast for Friday 11/11/11


With Europe under mounting pressure to act quickly to tackle its debt crisis, the leaders of Italy and Greece moved forcefully on Friday to reinvigorate their governments and show their sincerity about economic austerity. Financial markets rallied on the news.


MF Global fired all 1,066 of its brokerage employees on Friday, triggering anger and resentment about the firm's collapse after bad bets on European debt under former CEO Jon Corzine's leadership. How the abrupt, final blow was delivered upset many staff -- with some learning by e-mail and others through news on the television. "Fifteen years and no severance!" shouted one angry MF Global employee as he left the firm's offices on 5th Avenue in Manhattan after hugging the receptionist and doorman.


Email from a CFRN Partner




Futures trading is not currently my livelihood, it's a secondary thing. But I wonderabout all those for who it is, and how many had cash in an account handled by MF Global. For 2 weeks now my cash totalling over $17K is not there for me, and I'm not seeing any promising developments in the news reports.


I find it especially disgusting that for those like myself, who had no trades on at the time, or who were fortunate enough to see trouble brewing and liquidated, are being put at the back of line, while all those with positions have had their accounts transferred and funded at another broker.


It's pretty clear to me that the missing $600 million is not going to be "found", and so now they are saying we will have to "share" the losses. And who knows how long before we get it, how much, or even if.



Our heart goes out to our Partner and friend, as well as all clients and innocent employees of MF Global. We continue to pray for a swift resolution and fully support more stringent oversight within our industry to insure this tragedy is never repeated.


The Closing Bell




inside the zone...

The open of the 11/11/11 session Thursday afternoon was very quiet. Over 300,000 contracts traded in and around a 1 point range - our Weekly Trading Zone 1237/1238. There are many terms used to describe this type of behavior from "the market is coiling" to simply "a quiet market".




Whatever you call it, when the Asian markets opened the moves were dramatic and somewhat unusual.




The initial move of 14 points (Zone to Zone) took only 20k contracts. The next move (Zone to Zone) reversed the market and erased the gains on the back of just 40k contracts. The third move highlighted above required 50k contracts to complete (Zone to Zone). You will rarely ever see this type of movement during RTH - regular trading hours. On Globex it is more common but still a bit unusual. Always exercise additional caution and risk management when trading the Globex session and no matter what time of day you trade - Always use a stop!


As the European markets opened the rally was on. First a 10 point Zone to Zone move followed by a 12 point Zone to Zone move, and then things got quiet. Not eerily quiet, just Holiday quiet. The final 4-5 hours of today's market racked up a fair amount of volume 900k+ contracts but again all in and around a 1 point range - our Weekly Trading Zone 1261/1262.


Podcast for Friday 11/11/11

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The Daily Podcast about Trading, Politics, and Popular Culture


Here's a quick look at the Sunday Night open on Globex


Euro / 6E


Friday the Euro put in a strong performance only to see it completely erased between the Sunday night Globex open and today's close. 175 Pips up / 175+ Pips back down for a round trip ticket of 350 pips. If we begin to see any hourly closes below our support at 1.3615 we could drop an additional 125 Pips in search of solid ground. This market will continue to create above average volatility for the forseeable future. For us volatility translates into opportunity.


Jack be nimble, Jack be quick, but you better wear a stop or you could get sick.

S&P 500 / ES


The gap up opening on Sunday night created an excellent opportunity to short the market. We sold 1268 Stop as a trade not an investment. Turned out to be quite the joy ride before it was all over.

Tonight on the overnight session we like the idea of being short the ES below 1250.50 on a Stop and short the Euro/6E below 1.3580 on a stop. This Euro trade could easily drop 75 pips if triggered. If the ES triggers the potential for a 10-15 drop to support looks quite possible.





Podcast for Monday 11/14/11

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So what in the world could 3 guys manage to talk about for 2hours:24 minutes:16 seconds? The President, No Child Left Behind, Going Comatose, Thrashing on the Floor, and somewhere near the end we actually got around to the markets. David called a nice top while we were live and I laid the groundwork for a very nice 10 point Zone to Zone short as we signed off. (whew)


On the lighter side -

A warning from Fitch Ratings that large U.S. banks could be hit hard if Europe's debt crisis spreads sent stocks falling late Wednesday. U.S. indexes were moving between small gains and losses before Fitch released its report around 3:15 p.m. Eastern time. The Dow was down 36 points with an hour of trading left, then plunged to end the day down 190.


Oil prices hit $100 a barrel on today after a six-week surge that may drive gasoline prices higher in coming months and slow the fragile economic recovery. For now, there a few reasons to explain why oil jumped 30 percent higher since early October.


The euro is at five-week lows versus the dollar and yen in Asia as bond market turmoil spread across Europe, sparking calls for the European Central Bank to intervene more forcefully in markets. Investors were also nervously watching to see how German financial markets will react after Moody's cut the ratings of 12 German public-sector banks, believing they are likely to receive less federal government support if needed. The euro stood at $1.3441, versus $1.3492 late in New York, not far off Wednesday's trough around $1.3430 -- a low not seen since Oct. 10. Support is seen at $1.3399, a level representing the 76.4 percent retracement of the October rally, ahead of $1.3375, the 78.6 percent retracement.

Here's the 10 point Zone to Zone drop that just kept dropping -



Here's a look at where we are tonight on Globex -



Notice the smaller bodies on the candles? Even a wee bit of green and a bounce so far (7:30pm EDT). We will possibly send out an alert later tonight but not just yet. If we hold here and move higher with conviction that's another story. I'm just not sure it's over. In fact, unless we suddenly surge upwards, I have a keen interest in Selling 1226.75 Stop with a target at 1224.00. If this scenario should unfold I will watch for consolidation @ 1222/1223 and be quite interested in Buying the Bounce with a target between 10-20 points. Globex markets can move fast and furious on thin volume. Always use a hard stop. Trading is risky and you can lose all your money.


Podcast for Wednesday 11/16/11

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So how's that working for you? You know what I mean...


That story you hand the guy in the mirror every morning.


What happens when he stops buying it?


Sports car? Girl friend? Toupe'? Hairpin turn? Cliff dive?


Even if it puts you out of your misery for more than a moment does it really solve anything?


Wouldn't it be nice to live just one day bathed in truth? Nobody's junk in your trunk? No half baked, spoon fed, shallow garbage renting space in your head?


Darn right it would be nice. So nice in fact, why settle for just one day?


Why not pull the plug right now and watch every falsehood you were ever told about trading and life just circle the drain. You can do it. BE FREE! You need not be a prisoner. The walls you've allowed others to build around you, or that you have crudely constructed yourself can be felled in a single breath.


Breathe in, breathe out, it's all gone.


Try it...


Now nobody ever accused me of being the sharpest tool in the shed. Heck, I'm just thankful to be a tool. Some people will look at the chart below and say "I don't get it". Other folks will say "It's a trick", and last but not least, according to the experts - a whopping 63% of you won't even click on the chart because the man in the mirror has you convinced that you already know everything you need to know. That's why the brokerman keeps sending you that fat check every month... right?



It's entirely possible that you may have heard someone say I'm not the sharpest tool in the shed. Oh... right, that was me. But here's my point - It doesn't matter how early you get up or how much deer urine you spray on yourself, if you can't see it..... you can't see it. Period.


I played a Ray Charles song at the beginning of the broadcast today because last night in the Partner's Workshop I intimated that the blind gets in the way of the trophy. I also said nobody doesn't like Sara Lee. Plus I'm from Georgia. (Sweet Georgia)


Experts agree that by now 74.3% of you think I'm crazy. My life coach (currently doing time with James Ray) says that's OK and I should embrace it.


WOW! The steam just cleared and the mirror isn't quite so foggy. So why isn't that brokerman sending you a fat check every month? hmmmm?


Let's get to the bottom of this. As my 43 folders friend would not say - Get a list.


Now let's go down that list:


  • You have a statistical edge - check


  • You have a plan - check


  • You execute your plan without fail or hesitation - checkers anyone?

Illusions are great fun but ask anyone who ever worked for David Copperfield how magical they feel after a show. They don't. They just want to go home and shower. Take that for what it's worth.


Am I saying there is no majic? No wonderment? No Santa Claus?


No. Not yet. I'll get to that later. I'm just saying there's a thin line between illusion and delusion and for such a thin line it's a mighty big home to an awful lot of traders.

It's a little early for Christmas gifts but let me put a big red bow on this -


The brokerman DID send a big fat check to somebody this month. He also sent him one last month, and so far it looks like he'll be sending him another one again next month. Who is this guy?


If he's not the guy in the mirror then pull your head out of your chart and get with the program.


What program? The real program. You can only pretend for so long...


Stop hoping, stop making excuses, stop throwing money at the market, stop bowing down before false guru's. It's time to sack up, bite the bullet, and LEARN HOW TO TRADE!


I can give you a red hot trade every day for a year and then cross the street one fateful day for my 11:15 cupa' joe and suddenly meet my destiny with a Phoenix Metro Ligh Rail 30 seconds ahead of schedule.


Now what? Find another guru? Go broke? Apply for welfare? Drive your Gremlin off a cliff (not you Cliff) with a mop on your head in hopes no one will recognize you because you can't afford a decent toupe'?


Aren't you sick and tired of waiting for somebody to give you a trade?


No seriously. Aren't you?


You know what, I wasn't going to go down this path but here I am - There is no Santa Claus except you. Get up, work hard, use lay-away, cry because the instructions are in Mandarin ( as will be the Pledge of Allegiance soon) and when the dawn breaks deliver the goods by the sweat of your own brow (biblical) not someone else's.


Darn, I've rambled to the point where I myself am now depressed and have no one to talk to.


Lesson #1) Never buy your middle-aged therapist a sports car. (if you fail lesson #1 proceed)


Lesson #2) Install a combo GPS/LoJack that will not allow driving on Mullholand Drive after dark.


Lesson #3) Do not break down and try to reconcile your guilt as you give the eulogy.


Lesson #4) If you do break #3 have a good attorney on retainer.


Lesson #5) See Lesson #1.

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Today we talked about gratitude and David did a political rant.


We also covered the markets.


Gratitude is expressing thanks for gifts we have received. According to Merriam Webster's Online Dictionary, the word gratitude comes from the Latin words:

gratia meaning favor, charm, and thanks, and gratus meaning pleasing and grateful.


These Latin words are similar to the Sanskrit word gmati meaning he praises.


Gratitude is a basic human emotion. It is expressed in some way by all ancient and modern cultures. According to Dr. Robert Emmons, a leading gratitude researcher and author of the book thanks!, the idea of receiving a gift is central to the concept of gratitude. While merely appreciating something for its positive qualities does have a positive impact on our lives and emotions, gratitude takes then next step beyond.


Gratitude happens when we go beyond just appreciating something to acknowledging that we have received a gift that we did nothing to earn or deserve.


On some level, the warm emotional rush we feel when we really feel gratitude is very like the glow we feel from realizing we are unconditionally loved.


The feeling of Gratitude is like living in a state of grace. One definition of Grace, ( Merriam Webster’s Online Dictionary is unmerited divine assistance given humans for their resurrection and regeneration. In short, grace is our response to feeling loved unconditionally by God. When we practice an attitude of gratitude we are practicing feeling loved.


The Power of Gratitude New research shows that practicing gratitude may be the fastest single pathway to happiness, health, long life, and prosperity.

My goal is to practice it till I perfect it. Like the old butcher... but that's another story.


Turkey Rally?






Happy Thanksgiving to ALL!


Podcast for Wednesday 11/23/11

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Hope you had a great Thanksgiving! Here at the Compound we had a most excellent holiday highlighted by family and a AAA Bird seasoned with just the right attitude of gratitude. In hindsight, that Turkey did seem a bit Negative towards the end. Oh well...... life's a Fitch and then you get downgraded.



Holdiay shoppers filled with hope, or sheer desperation were out in force on Black Friday. Big retail numbers translated into a big open on Globex Sunday night. The S&P 500 Emini gapped up 18 points on the open. Once Wall Street opened things went a bit flat to down ending the session with a rally into the close. S&P +33 Dow +291 Comp +85 Gold +$25 Crude +$1



Final Beta:

1st Alert 11//25/11 10:47AM EST Consider Long Above 1172.00



Podcast for Monday 11/28/11

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Today was no mere Radio Show my friend. We opened with a little Judy Garland, discussed the Swing Trade in progress which signaled @ 1172 and has now traveled exactly 34 points to its zenith. Swinging both attention and cameras to our studio in Boston for a recap of the morning's Live Emini Trading Room -



2 points? check

Job well done? check


We then dashed of to that jewel in the desert - our studio in Las Vegas, exchanged pleasantries with the man behind the curtain and then my friend, pointed our sleigh towards The City That Never Sleeps where we did a little shopping at Macy's, watched the snow fall over Rockefeller Center, and wept like true girly men. Oh... and let's not forget the beach (spoiler alert) that was a straining experience. All done in 2h:14m:57s with spit, polish and a dash of panache. Oh right. S&P 500, Gold, Euro, sure... we did all that as well. Click the headphones above if you couldn't be there live and I'll tell it to you again.



Once upon a time in the mind of a man...


Bull Leg in a Bear Run?

Look at last night's chart for the big picture. Here's what we have tonight, a descending price channel that very well may hand us a Swing Trade on the short side. Stand by....





I have to climb into my Magical Thinking Machine now to see where the trigger lies but in the meantime, please enjoy the show.........


Podcast for Tuesday 11/29/11

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podcast_small.jpg?__SQUARESPACE_CACHEVERSION=1322892080082Its the weekend. YEAH!


Let's take a moment to reflect as well as look forward.


When it comes to this Trading business you've started, what are your goals?


Will you know success when you find it? What is success?


Is it a fast car and pockets full of money?


Is it the ability to support your family in troubled times?


Or maybe you're not sure... That's OK for now.


Have a look at the Daily Chart of the S&P Emini




The Gravestone Doji perched at the top is an ominous specter.


It's not an apocalyptic warning, just a sign post on the road up ahead...


From the close to the trend line is 24 points. Is that a lot?


Depends I guess.


If you're long it probably is. If you're short it most definitely is.


If you have no position it's something to think about.


Last Sunday night the market gapped on the open.


UP - 18 points.


Will it gap down now?


I don't know.


For a 1 contract trader that move could be worth $1,000.00 or better.


For a 100 contract trader, it could be $100,000.00 or better. (on the right side)


Think about this -


1 trade could make your year or wipe you out.


Emini Podcast for Friday 12/02/11

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The global outlook remains bleak. (deal with it)



No seriously. We have to deal with it. Each one of us, in our own unique way, must determine exactly how we will play out the hand we've been dealt. If you somehow ended up with 5 Aces - slip one to the less fortunate. Amen?



As Traders we have a very unique opportunity not afforded other occupations. Good, bad, or ugly... as long as the tape moves we have a chance to put bread on the table. We want the economy to improve. We want the housing market to rebound. We want to see job creation. But until we see it, I'll just trade whatever's in front of me. I suggest you consider the same...



Emini Podcast for Tuesday 12/13/11

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