YM Analysis for January. 31st, 2007

[Soultrader 12]

Been a while since I posted up any analysis. Thought I would do one for the YM.

 

Let's take a look at the daily chart first:

 

 

Now, the blue moving average on the chart is the 50 period moving average. The YM is currently using it as support around the 12480 mark. An interesting thing to watch is the price movement from Dec to now. Throughout the incredible uptrend the YM moved at a pretty rapid pace. From mid July, 2006 the YM took off to rally approx 1500 points. However from Dec to now, the move has been somewhat weak and slow. We have been stuck in a approx 400 point range for 2 months with 3 test of the 12670 level. Also notice the entire uptrend occured on a declining MACD. My current long term bias is not bullish. We could see this thing rally again, create a nice volume spike and reverse.

 

Let's take a look at some levels to watch for tomorrow. Below is a Market Profile chart:

 

 

Now I want to point out a few key levels from the MP chart. First, the red line I plotted at 12578 - 12580. This is a cluser from 1/26, 1/29 and 1/30 high. If price breaks this level, we should lift nicely. The 12600 level does get me a little worried but the YM seems to be not respecting it as it did with the 12500 level. So Im looking for a nice run towards at least the 12625 - 12630 mark.

 

Another interesting level is the VAH at 12555 ish. Another interesting cluser level: 1/29 & 1/30 VAH. The other interesting level is yesterdays low at 12510ish. Also a cluster zone with the lows from 1/29.

 

So 4 levels: 12510, 12555, 12575 - 12580, and 12625 will be my main trading levels for 1/31/07.

 

If we take a look at a 233 Tick chart, you will see the importance of these levels. The chart below is a 24 hour chart as of 4:27am Eastern. Notice the overnight resitance around 12570 which is in line with the high from 1/30/07.

 

 

Also notice the nice cluster at 12555 - 12550 of the VAH, weekly pivot, and daily pivot. This is going to be an ultra key level to watch. The value range is 28 points making it very narrow. If the markets break out of value, the professionals like to test below and above it. We have the previous days high appro 15 points above VAH and the previous day low approx 15 pts below VAL. Becareful of any longs or shorts placed on the break of value. I may observe the morning to see strength or weakness. Then determine which way the markets want to go.

 

Best of trading.

[TinGull 10]

Glad to have you back aboard the analysis train Great stuff!