Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

Do Or Die

Stocks Model

Recommended Posts

An August update re: Seasonality and reversals off of ytd lows:

 

As this project developes in it's rudimentry form, i am looking for improving upon

it's profit and loss results.My basic parameters are:

 

1 Liquid traders having retrenched 40% from their last 90 day highs and near their ytd low

2. Separate into 3 groups: 0-99, 1.00-1.99, 2.00-3.99

3. Define reversal as 2 upticking sessions(higher closing price) confirmed in the third day

by either opening or at sometime during that seesion trading through the second days

close.

4. A trade is 1.5% of account

5. Stop loss set immediately 10% under entry.

6 .Half of position open sell 25% above entry

 

My 0-.99 list:

 

ANO in .63 current .63

ASTI .72/.98

CHLN .99/1.03

CYCC .81/.83

DSTI .30/.30

NBY .86/.92

NTWK .89/.93

GRO .77/1.10

 

there were 6 positions stopped out.

 

My 1.00-1.99 positions are:

 

BIOD 1.15/1.22

BZH 1.63/1.98

CHINA 1.30/1.33

COMV 1.72/2.29

CSUN 1.23/1.33

CLWR 1.72/2.81

CPST 1.20/1.20

FCEL 1.16/1.23

FREE 1.21/1.18

DRL 1.50/1.59

EGLE 1.87/1.97

GU 1.88/1.71

HW 1.91/2.18

HILL 1.69/1.83

MOVE 1.52/1.67

NLST 1.42/1.73

SYNM 1.12/1.20

SMSI 1.87/1.88

SOMX 1.00/.98

SPIR 1.50/2.11

SATC 1.09/1.15

SNSS 1.40/1.50

 

There were 7 stopped out positions

 

The list for 2.00-3.99

 

AVNR 2.73/3.00

BTN 3.65/3.95

CMFO 2.12/2.31

CCRT 2.63/3.08

CRDC 2.42/2.37

CMFO 2.12/2.31

FLOW 2.63/2.83

DLGC 3.10/3.11

FCH 2.75/2.75

FVE 3.35/3.19

FBN 2.63/2.70

JRJC 2.80/2.85

KIPS 2.30/3.08

QTWW 3.05/3.23

RDNT 2.63/2.71

ZA 2.77/2.87

 

There were 3 stopped out positions.

 

The recent volatility has me wondering about original stops and whether they should be

increased. Also, should they be different within the sub groups.

 

From July's candidates there were some staggering upside moves quickly

ABAT, IRE, KNDI, NFEC, SCEI, VALV, GBE, GRO, CCRT, NEWN, USBI

 

Capturing these high flyers with trailing stop profit orders ensured a tidy profit overall.

It seems reasonable that off of ytd lows there will be more of the same notwithstanding

a meltdown.I've noticed that the larger the retracement the better the results,so that is

another filter to maybe recalibrate.

 

This work in progress has some features I'm sure are flawed and I would like others

with a greater understanding to comment on the pros if there are any and the cons which which I'm sure there are many :-)

 

New positions made today;

 

DYAX 1.42

EDAP 2.30

LLEN 3.45

PM .26

SPMD 2.24

TSPT 2.84I

 

I must say I enjoy getting long near the bottom with a HINT of a possible reversal.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

GU got stopped out :(

 

New positions entered

 

AMCF 1.40

BBND 1.43

CHRS 3.06

GMR .40

JASO 3.79

ZN 2.92

 

yesterday's PM should read PMI

Edited by cash123

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

When I first saw you post about penny stocks I though that its usual gambling in which beginners are tempted.

 

But I must admit the model is impressive. I never really traded in penny stocks and its good to read your posts.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

August's closing numbers;

 

0-.99

ANO .63 / .68......+7.9%

ASTI .72 / .94......+30%

CHLN .99 / 1.01 ...+2.0%

CYCC .81 / .84 ....+3.7%

DSTI .30 / .29 ....-3.3%

GMR .40 / .40......0%

PMI .26 / .26......0%

NBY .86 / .91......+5.8%

NTWK .89 / .90......+1.1%

GRO .77 / 1.21.....+57.1%

 

6 positions stopped out

 

1.00-1.99

AMCF 1.40 / 1.55....+10.7%

BBND 1.43 / 1.43........0%

BIOD 1.15 / 1.24......+7.8%

BZR 1.63 / 2.11......+29.4%

CHINA 1.30 / 1.32.....+1.5%

COMV 1.72 / 2.43.....+41.2%

CSUN 1.23 / 1.22..... -.08%

CLWR 1.72 / 3.21.....+86.6%

CPST 1.20 / 1.20........0%

FCEL 1.16 / 1.18.....+1.7%

FREE 1.21 / 1.23......+1.6%

DYAX 1.42 / 1.49......+4.9%

DRL 1.50 / 1.63.....+8.6%

EGLE 1.87 / 1.94......+3.7%

HW 1.91 / 2.15......+12.5%

HILL 1.69 / 1.76......+4.1%

MOVE 1.52 / 1.81.....+19.0%

NLST 1.42 / 1.80.....+26.7%

SYNM 1.12 / 1.20......+7.1%

SMSI 1.87 / 1.89......+1.0%

SOMX 1.00 / 1.00........ 0%

SPIR 1.50 / 2.30......+53.3%

SATC 1.09 / 1.33......+22.0%

SNSS 1.40 / 1.55.....+10.7%

 

there were 8 stopped out

 

2.00-3.99

 

AVNR 2.73 / 2.85......+6.9%

BTN 3.65 / 3.86......+5.7%

CMFO 2.12 / 2.20.......+3.7%

CCRT 2.63 / 3.20.......+21.6%

CHRS 3.04 / 3.17........+4.2%

CRDC 2.42 / 2.28........-5.7%

FLOW 2.63 / 2.55........-3.0%

DLGC 3.10 / 2.79.........-10% stopped out

EDAP 2.30 / 2.21.........-3.9%

FCH 2.75 / 3.43........+24.7%

FVE 3.35 / 3.25.........-2.9%

FBN 2.63 / 2.81.........+6.8%

JASO 3.79 / 3.67.........-3.1%

JRJC 2.80 / 2.78.........-.07%

KIPS 2.30 / 3.20.........+39.1%

LLEN 3.45 / 3.50.........+1.4%

QTWW 3.05 / 3.31.........+8.5%

SPMD 2.24 / 2.12.........-5.3%

TSPT 2.84 / 3.24..........+14%

RDNT 2.63 / 3.00..........+14.0%

ZA 2.77 / 3.01..........+8.6%

ZN 2.92 / 2.82..........-3.4%

 

there were 4 stopped out positions including DLGC

 

The sub group 0-.99 was by far the worst performers with 6 of 16 being stopped out.

They will be eliminated henceforth.

 

the middle group 1.00 - 1.99 had 8 out of 32 stopped out...that's doable

The last group was the most promising 2.00-3.99 had only 4 of 25 stopped out.

 

Since the stopped out positions represent a loss of .15% of the account

a few high flyers managed with trailing stops should suffice.Once the +25%

threshold has been met the trailing stops are placed 10% under that days close.

 

Positions entered today start Septembers list

 

ANX 1.08

CNTF 2.68

EEE 1.13

EXM 2.02

ECTY 2.20

MCOX 1.95

NFEC 1.12

NEWN 2.26

SCEI 1.53

VALV 2.13

Edited by cash123

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Time to short AAPL? anyone else tracking this stock?

 

I've been trading AAPL for some time ... I'm not in it right now simply because of the entire equity environment ... but after the next shakeout - I will be back LONG. While I am waiting, however, I've sold some naked puts against the stock at 10% below current prices. That is a strategy of mine for any stock I am long term bullish on but waiting for prices to come down.

 

Why would you short? Because of macro issues or because you think AAPL has had its run?

 

thx

MMS

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Actually I meant in the short term.

 

AAPL was outperforming market since last month or so... and Technology sector as a whole on up days. This relationship has changed; the markets apparently bounced this week from important 'trough', but this stock does not shows bull enthusiasm. I do not particularly like a stock opening significantly up but closing in red :)

attachment.php?attachmentid=26269&stc=1&d=1317314776

 

 

On daily charts, it closely resembles a classic exhaustion, ending with wide range bar.

attachment.php?attachmentid=26268&stc=1&d=1317314445

 

I also do not like the media attention the stock has been getting lately, everyone wants to own it.

aapl1.png.e242df8073581868c09c81f7e0678842.png

aapl.thumb.png.9bbc6c90ca450b552fb640c190fbd4ce.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
sold Nov 350 put ... I don't think AAPL will get there ... but you never know. Nonetheless, I will be happy to buy AAPL at 350

 

MMS

 

I like that idea.

That's how Buffet accumulate most of his holdings.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
AAPL bounced back from 360s hysterically upto 420...

 

AAPL's rally on daily charts is over. Until there is significant rally (100+ points) in SnP itself, it will not see new highs.

 

is that a prediction? or verbal diarrhea?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Topics

  • Posts

    • Be careful who you blame.   I can tell you one thing for sure.   Effective traders don’t blame others when things start to go wrong.   You can hang onto your tendency to play the victim, or the martyr… but if you want to achieve in trading, you have to be prepared to take responsibility.   People assign reasons to outcomes, whether based on internal or external factors.   When traders face losses, it's common for them to blame bad luck, poor advice, or other external factors, rather than reflecting on their own personal attributes like arrogance, fear, or greed.   This is a challenging lesson to grasp in your trading journey, but one that holds immense value.   This is called attribution theory. Taking responsibility for your actions is the key to improving your trading skills. Pause and ask yourself - What role did I play in my financial decisions?   After all, you were the one who listened to that source, and decided to act on that trade based on the rumour. Attributing results solely to external circumstances is what is known as having an ‘external locus of control’.   It's a concept coined by psychologist Julian Rotter in 1954. A trader with an external locus of control might say, "I made a profit because the markets are currently favourable."   Instead, strive to develop an "internal locus of control" and take ownership of your actions.   Assume that all trading results are within your realm of responsibility and actively seek ways to improve your own behaviour.   This is the fastest route to enhancing your trading abilities. A trader with an internal locus of control might proudly state, "My equity curve is rising because I am a disciplined trader who faithfully follows my trading plan." Author: Louise Bedford Source: https://www.tradinggame.com.au/
    • SELF IMPROVEMENT.   The whole self-help industry began when Dale Carnegie published How to Win Friends and Influence People in 1936. Then came other classics like Think And Grow Rich by Napoleon Hill, Awaken the Giant Within by Tony Robbins toward the end of the century.   Today, teaching people how to improve themselves is a business. A pure ruthless business where some people sell utter bullshit.   There are broke Instagrammers and YouTubers with literally no solid background teaching men how to be attractive to women, how to begin a start-up, how to become successful — most of these guys speaking nothing more than hollow motivational words and cliche stuff. They waste your time. Some of these people who present themselves as hugely successful also give talks and write books.   There are so many books on financial advice, self-improvement, love, etc and some people actually try to read them. They are a waste of time, mostly.   When you start reading a dozen books on finance you realize that they all say the same stuff.   You are not going to live forever in the learning phase. Don't procrastinate by reading bull-shit or the same good knowledge in 10 books. What we ought to do is choose wisely.   Yes. A good book can change your life, given you do what it asks you to do.   All the books I have named up to now are worthy of reading. Tim Ferriss, Simon Sinek, Robert Greene — these guys are worthy of reading. These guys teach what others don't. Their books are unique and actually, come from relevant and successful people.   When Richard Branson writes a book about entrepreneurship, go read it. Every line in that book is said by one of the greatest entrepreneurs of our time.   When a Chinese millionaire( he claims to be) Youtuber who releases a video titled “Why reading books keeps you broke” and a year later another one “My recommendation of books for grand success” you should be wise to tell him to jump from Victoria Falls.   These self-improvement gurus sell you delusions.   They say they have those little tricks that only they know that if you use, everything in your life will be perfect. Those little tricks. We are just “making of a to-do-list before sleeping” away from becoming the next Bill Gates.   There are no little tricks.   There is no success-mantra.   Self-improvement is a trap for 99% of the people. You can't do that unless you are very, very strong.   If you are looking for easy ways, you will only keep wasting your time forgetting that your time on this planet is limited, as alive humans that is.   Also, I feel that people who claim to read like a book a day or promote it are idiots. You retain nothing. When you do read a good book, you read slow, sometimes a whole paragraph, again and again, dwelling on it, trying to internalize its knowledge. You try to understand. You think. It takes time.   It's better to read a good book 10 times than 1000 stupid ones.   So be choosy. Read from the guys who actually know something, not some wannabe ‘influencers’.   Edit: Think And Grow Rich was written as a result of a project assigned to Napoleon Hill by Andrew Carnegie(the 2nd richest man in recent history). He was asked to study the most successful people on the planet and document which characteristics made them great. He did extensive work in studying hundreds of the most successful people of that time. The result was that little book.   Nowadays some people just study Instagram algorithms and think of themselves as a Dale Carnegie or Anthony Robbins. By Nupur Nishant, Quora Profits from free accurate cryptos signals: https://www.predictmag.com/    
    • there is no avoiding loses to be honest, its just how the market is. you win some and hopefully more, but u do lose some. 
    • $CSCO Cisco Systems stock, nice top of range breakout, from Stocks to Watch at https://stockconsultant.com/?CSCOSEPN Septerna stock watch for a bottom breakout, good upside price gap
    • $CSCO Cisco Systems stock, nice top of range breakout, from Stocks to Watch at https://stockconsultant.com/?CSCOSEPN Septerna stock watch for a bottom breakout, good upside price gap
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.