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Rande Howell

Mastering Fear and Impulse

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by J .Rande Howell

http://www.tradersstateofmind.com

 

___________________________

 

“I have finally concluded that the reason my trading is not progressing is because of what is going on in my head, and nothing at all with what is happening in the markets.”

AS, Dallas TX

________________________

 

What Keeps You Stuck in Trading Purgatory?

 

After a number of years of training yourself to trade, most traders find themselves stuck in the same predicament as the above trader. Inconsistent results follow no matter how much their trading system is tweaked or changed to create external discipline. Finally the trader comes to the uncomfortable conclusion that the problem is not in their methodology, their system, or the markets (these all work well in simulation) – the problem is in the 5 inches between their ears.

 

Traders read about expert traders who seem to be born with the right attributes for trading. These expert traders trade dispassionately with a powerful discipline that allows them to park their emotions at the door. And students of trading, who read about these characteristics of successful traders, often try to emulate the emotional control and state of mind they read about. They, like Dorothy in the Wizard of Oz, click their heels and magically imagine themselves to have the “right” emotional and mental traits. They may even watch a trader psychology DVD, listen to a guided meditation, mess around with their brain waves, or learn some NLP tricks in hopes of an easy fix.

 

Try as they might though, the emotional roller coaster ride of their trading persists. The mistake the student of trading makes is that they compare themselves with these rare people who are born with a genetic predisposition and emotional temperament that is well suited for trading. Though they are rare, many aspiring traders set these off-the-shelf exceptional traders up as the psychological model for their trading. The problem is these rarified traders come equipped with a very different emotional and mental predisposition than the vast majority of people who enter trading.

 

Individuals may come equipped with a certain genetic inheritance that, under the right conditions, are expressed in such a way that it gives a person an advantage in certain domains. Taken to an extreme, you also see this genetic engineering in breeding dogs for certain traits. This kind of genetic engineering is simply not possible in humans. This does not mean that trait selection is not used to enhance performance though. Though humans are far more complex, the Russian and Chinese have used trait expression to steer young people with athletic promise to great advantage. And some traders win the genetic trait lottery for trading. The vast majority do not. They have to learn to develop a psychology built for trading.

 

Nature vs. Nurture

 

No matter how much they read about what the mind is supposed to look like to trade well, little is spoken about how the trader goes about building the very emotional and mental skills and attitudes necessary for successful trading. Just because nature did not equip you with the “right stuff” for your trading mind does not mean that you can not nurture your psychology so that you build the state of mind needed to successfully execute your methodology.

 

Nurture is far more importance in developing a mindset than nature. Nature may give potential, but it is the individual that must develop that potential in order for it to become a talent. This means, even if you did not win the gene pool lottery, you can train your emotional and mental predisposition to your advantage in trading. Problematic emotional biases about money, worth, risk, and uncertainty are genetically handed down from one generation to the next. They are not deterministic traits. They are learned patterns that become wired into your brain/mind as habits. It's not genetics, but it is adaptation to circumstance. This is how the money narrative to which you adapted shows up in your trading. It is transmitted through the generations and your brain’s adaptation to circumstance. And fear-based habits and beliefs can be de-constructed and re-organized into a much more trader-friendly perceptual map.

 

Deconstructing the Fusion of Uncertainty and Worry

 

Most of us grew up in environments that exerted pressure on our developing brain that organized us to "not make mistakes" and to focus on certainty rather than the management of ambiguity. It is from this constantly adapting brain that our “mind”, the way we interpret reality, emerges. For the vast majority of traders, by the time that a brain has approached maturity it is biased to seek certainty and avoid uncertainty. This is simply a biological bias of the human brain that has been amplified by what we are taught about risk and uncertainty. This is an organization of the mind that is not going to work well in trading. That particular adaptation can work well in other domains, but not in trading, where the emphasis is on embracing the management of uncertainty and risk.

 

Your brain fused uncertainty and the fear of death into a single construct (very appropriate for physical survival in a dangerous world), but was never prepared for trading markets. This particular organization of our perceptual map has to be de-constructed, de-fused, and re-organized from a fear-based interpretation of uncertainty to a probability and risk management based perception of uncertainty. This is the mindset that works in trading. The problem is that the uncertainty/fear construct has become the historical narrative that guides your perception of the markets. It is at this point that the assumptions about fear and risk to which your brain adapted you become embedded as unexamined self-limiting beliefs. They sink into the background of your awareness and contaminate effective perception without your ever knowing it.

 

Out of Theory and Into the Trading Room

 

What does all this theory look like in trading? Let’s take a look.

 

Jim is a trader who is literally a rocket scientist. He has a deep working knowledge of computer systems, aeronautics, and mechanical engineering – and now he is an attorney who practices intellectual property law. In simulation his trading reflects the clear thinking and impartial state of mind that you would expect out of a person with this kind of training and experience. However, when he trades and risk enters the picture he does not “see” all of the options and patterns that are reflected in his charts and indicators. His training is highly biased towards certainty (remember people’s lives and expensive equipment were at stake based on his calculations) rather than the management of risk and uncertainty.

 

He was trained that losing was not an option. This training became habitual and went into the background of his awareness. Now it is an unexamined bias that colors the perceptual world he sees. (Uncertainty = Fear of being wrong.) This assumption that uncertainty must be eliminated, now a belief embedded in the neuro-circuitry of his brain, became the unexamined belief (or historical narrative) that he brought with him into trading. This belief was highly effective for him both as a rocket scientist and as a patent attorney where a high value was placed on certainty.

 

However this same thinking, so successful in one domain, was producing near panic for him while he was in a trade. As a result, he got out of trades too soon and he took his profits too quickly – long before he reached his target. Once in a trade, nothing was certain. Managing the trade was an exercise in the management of uncertainty in terms of probability rather than certainty. Uncertainty, still fused to fear, triggered and his rational and clear thinking mind was contaminated by fear. From this fear-based state of mind, options that would have appeared to him while in an impartial state of mind were swept away and replaced by the negative anticipation of worry. This is the impact of your historical narrative on your trading. And, of course, when the trading day is over and he reviews his trades, he cannot comprehend why he missed so many signals and patterns. All he knows is that, yet again, he made bad trading decisions resulting in more draw-downs.

 

Changing the Historical Narrative of Uncertainty and Fear into Probability

 

Like the trader quoted at the start of this article, most traders come to realize that their historical narrative, now embedded in their neuro-circuitry of belief, is what has to be changed. There are no tricks or magic bullets. Most traders muddle through years of desensitization (of their fears and self limiting beliefs) before finding consistent success in trading. This process rewires beliefs about self and uncertainty that eventually open the possibility of trading on a new level. Fortunately, this re-organization of the trader’s mind can become more streamlined when we begin to understand how meaning is organized in the brain/mind.

 

There is no single organization of the self. There is no final “me” “Me” is simply the current organization of self beliefs that you hold as true. We do not see reality, we see shadows cast -- and there is always an observer interpreting what it is experiencing. Traders come to hold certain assumptions about the market. Some of these assumptions have been worked out and have become an effective way of dancing with the market. Yet, the market does not care what assumptions you attempt to place on it, nor does it have awareness of the "truths" placed upon it by men.

 

Before traders recognize that they are the problem, they usually have traded for a number of years and are successful in simulated trading. They know HOW to trade a methodology that works in a classroom. It is when risk of capital is put in play that their "truths" about the market are challenged. It is at this point that the trader is not separating uncertainty from worry or fear. This situation is highly trainable. The assumptions of self that have become hardwired as self-limiting beliefs (their unexamined truths) are not failing because they don't know how to trade, but because they are not trained to operate in an environment of uncertainty. They will have to re-organize their beliefs about operating in an environment of uncertainty and their skill to manage it, which can be accomplished if the trader accepts full responsibility for the outcome.

 

Fundamentally, traders need to learn a set of skills and tools by which they do brain surgery on their belief system. Trading becomes a great place to see "up front and close" the trader's beliefs about self in action. There is no hiding from the "truth" as it has been organized within the self. Yet most find that their "truths" are only unexamined assumptions about the world that drive their perception. It is at this moment that the assumptions behind the self limiting beliefs can be observed and re-constructed.

 

Building your beliefs into managing risk rather than avoiding risk is then possible. Anxiety at this point can be regulated and listened to, not from an avoidant observer, but from a disciplined and impartial observer - with very different outcomes. The "truth" they see allows them to be present in their trading very differently. The gap between simulated trading and live trading narrows as they train their state of mind to embrace uncertainty from a perspective of discipline, patience, courage, and impartiality. A far cry from the anxious state of mind that had them hesitating or trading impulsively as fear swept their thinking capacity away.

 

Very few brain/minds have been shaped to trade well. Getting to the impartiality and discipline necessary for trading is like trying to tell a horse in a burning barn to remain calm and simply walk out of the barn by carefully considering its options. Fortunately, belief can be changed. It begins with learning emotional regulation skills so that fear and greed do not sweep away your capacity to think from a disciplined and impartial state of mind. Then the trader must begin really examining themselves. This is done by developing the capacity to become mindful. Mindfulness, in essence, is the capacity to observe the coming and going of thought and to recognize that thought is not who you are. Thoughts, through the observation of mindfulness, become the voices of your beliefs that drive your trading. This is where the door to change opens.

 

The observer that we bring to uncertainty is what allows the trader to see what they see. A really good trader, as a trained observer of market phenomena, is seeing distinctions through his skill and an impartial mindset that a fear-based trader does not see, much like the rocket scientist turned trader was experiencing...very different observers of uncertainty with very different outcomes. There is a great Zen koan that goes like this. “Things are not always what they seem to be -- nor are they any other way.”

 

Becoming Architect of the Self that Trades

 

Applying mindfulness as a tool to your trading allows you to bring the self limiting beliefs that sabotage your trading into your awareness where they can be worked with. Instead of drifting on the currents of unseen self-limiting beliefs that limit the way you manage uncertainty and risk, you become the architect of the narrative you bring to trading. Uncertainty becomes decoupled from worry and fear. And you develop inner resources that allow you to bring forth into your awareness the discipline, patience, courage, and impartiality that live as possibilities in the totality of your being. In the face of uncertainty, you no longer have to be compelled by your fears to produce inconsistent results. Instead, you bring a state of mind to the uncertainty that creates the probability of successful trading. Trading is a journey into the possibility of who you can be. The “you” that you brought to trading is rarely the “you” that will bring you success in trading.

 

Emotional regulation and mindfulness are the cornerstones of re-organizing the “self” that trades. It is your passion that gives you the motivation to learn and use these tools to become who you need to be for consistently successful trading.

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hi Rande (yes its me again), always interesting as usual, however in the spirit of opening discussion I would like to make some comments/suggestions/observations. I have also been having similar discussions with some trading friends that have revolved around this very subject, so its topical.

 

by J .Rande Howell

Index of /

Inconsistent results follow no matter how much their trading system is tweaked or changed to create external discipline.

 

as you allude to later, for many traders they have this search for consistent results.....the desire to be right in the face of uncertainty. This is the reason it is recommended to have trading plans so that you know what you want to do when certain events occur, and hence there should be no uncertainty. This however will still not prevent people from wanting to be right and consistently so.....the search for consistent results can be inconsistent with trading profitably. :(

A trader should happy to be wrong so long as they are consistently profitable......and this seemingly nonsensical statement messes with the mind.

It is easy to accept that there is uncertainty in the market, its hard to accept that you cannot master that uncertainty, or that you have any control over it, or that you are going to be wrong as much, if not more than you are going to be right.

There is nothing consistent about it, even though as a trader you aim for consistency, and yet at the same time, consistency in following your rules is an important element.

mindf...k number 1

 

by J .Rande Howell

Index of /

Most of us grew up in environments that exerted pressure on our developing brain that organized us to "not make mistakes" and to focus on certainty rather than the management of ambiguity.

 

acceptance that you WILL make many, many errors and that you are fallible is very hard to overcome. Most people when asked a question are afraid to answer a question when they dont know the answer or many cant even say "I dont know" and yet they will very quickly give opinions and act on their own opinions in the same circumstance because they believe they are right.....what gives?????

Once you know you are more likely to be wrong, and accept this, then you still need two other things....1...a plan to reverse the wrong decision, and 2...the ability to act on that plan.

So there are plenty of elements that make being wrong so hard to accept. It is probably more the pride than the fear (or I am sure these are related - public fear of loss of face etc) that holds people back.

 

by J .Rande Howell

Index of /

 

Jim is a trader who is literally a rocket scientist. He has a deep working knowledge of computer systems, aeronautics, and mechanical engineering – and now he is an attorney who practices intellectual property law

 

In simulation his trading reflects the clear thinking and impartial state of mind that you would expect out of a person with this kind of training and experience. However, when he trades and risk enters the picture he does not “see” all of the options and patterns that are reflected in his charts and indicators. His training is highly biased towards certainty (remember people’s lives and expensive equipment were at stake based on his calculations) rather than the management of risk and uncertainty.........He was trained that losing was not an option. ......... This belief was highly effective for him both as a rocket scientist and as a patent attorney where a high value was placed on certainty.

 

I sort of disagree with you here....his training is not based upon certainty as a lawyer....its based on him being able to convince others that he is right, and he would surely understand that some outcomes wont go his way.....and yet it is not his life or equipment at stake, when he is wrong, and there are variations of results when he is wrong...not the black and white of the markets....... there is no certainty in the law either (arguable of course :))....

he probably still got paid even when he was wrong :(

 

As an engineer, there is a lot more certainty in mathematics and proven processes than the markets, you dont need to accept that , and yet if you look into a lot of professions....there are many cases where there are errors/mis judgements.....

Which then relates to this which I feel does not make sense in Jims case....or more to the point, I imagine it shows there is more that just a simple fear response of losing going on.....

 

by J .Rande Howell

Index of /However this same thinking, so successful in one domain, was producing near panic for him while he was in a trade. As a result, he got out of trades too soon and he took his profits too quickly – long before he reached his target.

 

but he was right.....so in other words he had a fear of what ??? being right again for the exit??? yes probably, but then nothing has changed, a trading plan is only right in its entire plan over a series of trades, its not partially right, and then partially wrong....its either right or wrong, after the trade is exited., and trading sucessfully is not about one entry, one exit or one trade....its about a series of trades.

So in other words if he is just fearful of being right, and by closing trades down early, then he is actually confirming that he is wrong in his plan.....so in other words he is actually being wrong even more than he thinks he is......:doh:. Again another mindf...k when you think about - that by thinking you are right you are actually being wrong.

 

by J .Rande Howell

Index of /

Before traders recognize that they are the problem, they usually have traded for a number of years and are successful in simulated trading. They know HOW to trade a methodology that works in a classroom. It is when risk of capital is put in play that their "truths" about the market are challenged........... There is no hiding from the "truth" as it has been organized within the self.

 

this is where I think there is that extra step as well......how is it that people can SIM trade profitably and then loose money when its real?????

 

In SIM trading it will still show if you are right or wrong, so surely the fear factor associated with this not there.....I would suggest its one of two things.....1....the trader while SIM trading was actually dishonest with themselves or 2....there is as you mention a money narrative at play, and this money narrative is a different fear/impulse that that of being right and wrong....its more about how you view money/self worth (whatever) and so you have a whole other mindf...k to contend with on top of all the others and while related it could be completely separate. IMHO.

 

Otherwise, yes I think everyone can agree that change comes from within, its possible and it takes time etc; etc.....

I just think there is far more going on than what is given, and often the point of trying to acheive consistent results is not the end game. Too often this search for consistency actually causes the problem. We search for consistent results in wanting to be consistently right, when in actual fact you should aim for consistency in application and knowing and accepting that you will be wrong a lot!

 

As an aside what I do find interesting is this.....the allure of day trading is far far harder than people realise. Not only do you have the various mindf...ks (give me a better word for the layman please), but you also have the fact that - the more trades you do, the more decisions you do then you are at greater odds to make a mistake, and yet by day trading you are forcing yourself into this high turnover decision making process. So either get a computer to do this or realise and accept you will be wrong a lot, or expand out of day trading. Ask yourself do you want to be right, or do you want to be profitable. I will take being wrong plenty so long as at the end of the year I am profitable. (presently my mojo has left me, I not only dont have a view on the Aussie stocks I am trading, it appears no one else does, so I have plenty of time to think about this :))

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Your contribution to conventional wisdom is prolific.

 

I was very surprised when TL took all my post blogs entries, which I abandoned for the forums, and posted them as articles. That may be the source of prolificness. Generally, I post 1x monthly and enter conversations like everybody else.

 

Rande Howell

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hi Rande (yes its me again), always interesting as usual, however in the spirit of opening discussion I would like to make some comments/suggestions/observations. I have also been having similar discussions with some trading friends that have revolved around this very subject, so its topical.

 

SIUYA

 

Actually I appreciate the rigor you bring to dialog. And your observations have helped me become better at serving traders. IF traders were able to trade their plan or even take and perform their trades as their mentors announce them, trading performance would be very different.

 

As a consequence, I actually build in emotional regulation and visualization skills into the very fabric of a trader's plan. It's too easy for a trader to get ramped up and sweep away while in the management of uncertainty not to integrate emotional and mental management skills into the plan they are trading.

 

Examining your beliefs about winning and consistence is fundamental to developing a mindset that can trade effectively over time. Short term loss or success is a dangerous notion to get stuck in.

 

Rande Howell

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    • Date: 18th April 2024. Market News – Stock markets benefit from Dollar correction. Economic Indicators & Central Banks:   Technical buying, bargain hunting, and risk aversion helped Treasuries rally and unwind recent losses. Yields dropped from the recent 2024 highs. Asian stock markets strengthened, as the US Dollar corrected in the wake of comments from Japan’s currency chief Masato Kanda, who said G7 countries continue to stress that excessive swings and disorderly moves in the foreign exchange market were harmful for economies. US Stockpiles expanded to 10-month high. The data overshadowed the impact of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East as traders await Israel’s response to Iran’s unprecedented recent attack. President Joe Biden called for higher tariffs on imports of Chinese steel and aluminum.   Financial Markets Performance:   The USDIndex stumbled, falling to 105.66 at the end of the day from the intraday high of 106.48. It lost ground against most of its G10 peers. There wasn’t much on the calendar to provide new direction. USDJPY lows retesting the 154 bottom! NOT an intervention yet. BoJ/MoF USDJPY intervention happens when there is more than 100+ pip move in seconds, not 50 pips. USOIL slumped by 3% near $82, as US crude inventories rose by 2.7 million barrels last week, hitting the highest level since last June, while gauges of fuel demand declined. Gold strengthened as the dollar weakened and bullion is trading at $2378.44 per ounce. Market Trends:   Wall Street closed in the red after opening with small corrective gains. The NASDAQ underperformed, slumping -1.15%, with the S&P500 -0.58% lower, while the Dow lost -0.12. The Nikkei closed 0.2% higher, the Hang Seng gained more than 1. European and US futures are finding buyers. A gauge of global chip stocks and AI bellwether Nvidia Corp. have both fallen into a technical correction. The TMSC reported its first profit rise in a year, after strong AI demand revived growth at the world’s biggest contract chipmaker. The main chipmaker to Apple Inc. and Nvidia Corp. recorded a 9% rise in net income, beating estimates. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • Date: 17th April 2024. Market News – Appetite for risk-taking remains weak. Economic Indicators & Central Banks:   Stocks, Treasury yields and US Dollar stay firmed. Fed Chair Powell added to the recent sell off. His slightly more hawkish tone further priced out chances for any imminent action and the timing of a cut was pushed out further. He suggested if higher inflation does persist, the Fed will hold rates steady “for as long as needed.” Implied Fed Fund: There remains no real chance for a move on May 1 and at their intraday highs the June implied funds rate future showed only 5 bps, while July reflected only 10 bps. And a full 25 bps was not priced in until November, with 38 bps in cuts seen for 2024. US & EU Economies Diverging: Lagarde says ECB is moving toward rate cuts – if there are no major shocks. UK March CPI inflation falls less than expected. Output price inflation has started to nudge higher, despite another decline in input prices. Together with yesterday’s higher than expected wage numbers, the data will add to the arguments of the hawks at the BoE, which remain very reluctant to contemplate rate cuts. Canada CPI rose 0.6% in March, double the 0.3% February increase BUT core eased. The doors are still open for a possible cut at the next BoC meeting on June 5. IMF revised up its global growth forecast for 2024 with inflation easing, in its new World Economic Outlook. This is consistent with a global soft landing, according to the report. Financial Markets Performance:   USDJPY also inched up to 154.67 on expectations the BoJ will remain accommodative and as the market challenges a perceived 155 red line for MoF intervention. USOIL prices slipped -0.15% to $84.20 per barrel. Gold rose 0.24% to $2389.11 per ounce, a new record closing high as geopolitical risks overshadowed the impacts of rising rates and the stronger dollar. Market Trends:   Wall Street waffled either side of unchanged on the day amid dimming rate cut potential, rising yields, and earnings. The major indexes closed mixed with the Dow up 0.17%, while the S&P500 and NASDAQ lost -0.21% and -0.12%, respectively. Asian stock markets mostly corrected again, with Japanese bourses underperforming and the Nikkei down -1.3%. Mainland China bourses were a notable exception and the CSI 300 rallied 1.4%, but the MSCI Asia Pacific index came close to erasing the gains for this year. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.vvvvvvv
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