Day Trading the E-mini Futures

[bakrob99 11]

Another pullback and lower D2 Target on possible extension to the downside. 1276.50 will provide support... need to take it out quickly if we're going to make the lower trendline.

 

[bakrob99 11]

It's now 15:34 EST ... 15 Minutes we should hit the D2 Target shown above or it aint gonna happen. Let's see.

 

76's still hanging tough as I mentioned they might be.

[TheNegotiator 13]

It's now 15:34 EST ... 15 Minutes we should hit the D2 Target shown above or it aint gonna happen. Let's see.

 

76's still hanging tough as I mentioned they might be.

 

Just nothing positive for the market to cling onto into the weekend. Next week might be interesting. Have a great weekend all!!

[bakrob99 11]

Quite a day. Closed 1 tick off the low. Had more trade opportunities today than in most weeks. Have a great weekend.

[gosu 10]

Just nothing positive for the market to cling onto into the weekend. * * *

 

Exactly.

 

Next week: make p2, then retrace, then make p3, then resumption, etc., etc....

[c0l$il 10]

Do you guys post during market hours or is there a skype conversation going?

[bakrob99 11]

Do you guys post during market hours or is there a skype conversation going?

Are you interested in a Skype conversation on the ES?

[TheNegotiator 13]

Do you guys post during market hours or is there a skype conversation going?

 

Some people try to post during market hours which is a good thing, others don't so much. There's no skype (or any other) live chat going on that I'm aware of.

[TheNegotiator 13]

Before I post about yesterday's trade and what I'm looking at for today, I want to point out that I switched my chart start date to 3/6/9 for reasons explained in the Bigger Picture in E-minis Discussion thread. Take a look if you're interested.

[TheNegotiator 13]

Okay so draghi is currently chatting and it seems like his comments are moving the market, so anything could happen I guess. Overnight we've been strong and tested 1300, but now we're retracing. Dollar is showing a little strength right now aswell. Either way, if it opens here or nearer highs, I'd be looking at what it does on a retest lower before deciding whether or not to buy and go with it. The key for me is probably yesterday's high although the VPOC at 80.75 could also end up a springboard too. However, if we got all the way there (and even to 86.75), that would represent a pretty big counter move. Coupled with all of this, the market seems to have an itchy trigger finger and remains highly reactive to news. So even more so than usual, don't piss about. Identify your trades and let them play out. Take your losses and don't be nervous about letting a winner run- just make sure you stick to your plan for an early exit if it reverses hard and fast. Anyway, you never know. We'll probably have a really quiet day now!! lol :crap: :doh: :missy:

 

[TheNegotiator 13]

Pretty conclusive open in that no sellers through 92.75 level. However, despite an initial attempt at driving up, we had to reverse then retest before really moving. That's something to note as if this action were due to a truly confident OTF, it would've just gone. That being said, we are reasonably strong right now and I would think we'd at least test the gap to 1306.00. If we don't, that kinda says something.

[bakrob99 11]

Very nice levels for targets .... holding for 1304.75 from 1300 area ..

 

Thanks.

 

 

Follow up: Out at 11:03 EDT 1404.75. nice.

Edited June 6, 2012 by bakrob99

[TheNegotiator 13]

There's the test of 1304.75 - not exactly rejected it yet! Btw, I think if we do move higher, 07.50 might be useful to watch aswell.

[TheNegotiator 13]

Very nice levels for targets .... holding for 1304.75 from 1300 area ..

 

Thanks.

 

There's certainly sellers here, just not getting that "kick" for a reversal. Not saying it won't either, but a swift rejection usually is a better indication of a near term extreme.

[TheNegotiator 13]

Very nice levels for targets .... holding for 1304.75 from 1300 area ..

 

Thanks.

 

Did you take it or are you looking to see if there's any more in it?

[bakrob99 11]

Did you take it or are you looking to see if there's any more in it?

 

 

See above. Out at target.

[TheNegotiator 13]

See above. Out at target.

 

very nice. well done mate!

[TheNegotiator 13]

Okay so yesterday ended up a trend day after early attempt lower failed. Market isn't very forgiving in this mode if you don't align yourself with it or step aside. Anyway, we've had a jump higher overnight mainly on the pboc rate cut. Today, we're going to be rolling into the sep '12 contract. I've rolled my charts so that anyone can take a look at the new levels. I'm never too keen on the new contract until the levels have 'worn in' a little. However, we're near the upper end of the 5/17-5/31 balance and that means there is potential opportunity. Are we going to break out or are we going to get some responsive selling soon? Was the move up over the last couple of days purely short-covering or will it turn out to be the start of the next major leg up? Who knows. But monitoring activity from RTH open can often provide a good indication of the level of confidence seen in any particular direction. That and of course the reaction to any news items.

 

[bakrob99 11]

On rollover day the volume split throws off my determination of trend day potential as I use the 30 minute volume usually to add to other factors in determining a trend day. Rollover causes real volume to be unclear as contracts are being swapped over so combined volume is high while each contract's volume is lower than normal. On a day like today I usually go into scalp mode so I'll take an early profit and look to reenter... I find that on most rollover days I am better to reduce size and frequency of trades.

 

I usually wait for the volume to be roughly equal for the day on the new "U" contract before trading it. I always stay with the old contract usually through noon EDT.

[TheNegotiator 13]

I usually wait for the volume to be roughly equal for the day on the new "U" contract before trading it. I always stay with the old contract usually through noon EDT.

 

Fair enough. I just wait until it's tradable and then try to trade more selectively.

[TheNegotiator 13]

Over in the Trading Tip #8: Avoiding Mental Sabotage thread, Josh wanted to talk about specific trading edges. I thought it'd be much more beneficial to discuss these things specifically pertaining to the E-minis. If the topic gets going, we could start a separate thread.

[TheNegotiator 13]

So, I'll begin. One specific edge I use is auction context. Simply taking trades because they are at a level is nuts imho. Let's look at yesterday for example. (btw I've rolled my charts to september contract, but the theory is the same).

 

 

Shortly after open, the market was sitting just above the prior 3-day balance having gapped up. It tested that balance to see if it was acceptable or not still. The price it tested happened to be the high of that balance but that's not always the case. The market then resolved itself and drove up, having already tested that balance. My edge was that I knew there was a high probabilty we would continue higher. This knowledge kept me from shorting 1304.75 (now 1298.25) for example. That trade just didn't fit with what had happened.

 

The important thing with any edge imho, is that you recognise it as an edge and therefore make sure you use it.

[joshdance 10]

My edge was that I knew there was a high probabilty we would continue higher. This knowledge kept me from shorting

 

Thanks for humoring me N -- but how did you know there was a high probability we would continue higher? A data set of some kind? Not likely... more likely, experience. So, your edge is experience -- not particularly tangible or transferable really... In this case, why call it an edge? It may function that way, but it's not something you can teach or tell someone else...

[TheNegotiator 13]

Thanks for humoring me N -- but how did you know there was a high probability we would continue higher? A data set of some kind? Not likely... more likely, experience. So, your edge is experience -- not particularly tangible or transferable really... In this case, why call it an edge? It may function that way, but it's not something you can teach or tell someone else...

 

You can test it if you keep good stats. I think you're right about it being down to experience to some extent. But also, if you're simply looking at the open then there are questions you can ask. In the case I posted, the first thing is that we are out of balance, then it does test that balance again before taking off strongly. Anyone can ask the same questions if that is what they are looking for. Auctions are basically about balance, imbalance and testing. So that could be applied to various different trading scenarios.

[bakrob99 11]

... Simply taking trades because they are at a level is nuts imho..

 

I agree. That's why I look for Delta changes and evidence of strong buying or selling and take the retrace to the area. There almost always is one... and if you're ready you can often get a very low risk entry take that setup.

 

Today there was clearly evidence of selling once price got below the opening tick and it continued with many retraces to the opening tick price which had large selling delta below it and great opportunities to get short at the opening price but only after the market had suggested it was ready for a down move. This down move came in at the 10:00 time frame.

 

My point is .. had I had a level there (I did consider the opening tick a level) I would always wait for the market to tip its hand and then take the trade. This has the double benefit of getting you in the move (if it does happen) at the right time after it has tested you entry.

 

Nothing drives me crazier than to take a good entry and move stop to BE and get knocled out of the trade on the test. So I try to avoid that at all costs now and never trail stop until it become a profit stop.

 

If you want to start a thread with "EDGES", I'd be happy to participate either in Real Time or after the fact.

 

Great trading today. Much better for me than usual rollover junk.