Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

iwshares

Usd/cad

Recommended Posts

Hi guys. I've been doing a lot of analysis recently and have some thoughts about the USD/CAD I'd like to share.

 

We've been in a down trend for some time. 18-28/3/11 a resistance of 0.98508 was tested but not breached. Next resistance at 0.96709 was tested with a pin reversal/blowout on 18/4/11 with the next daily bar high at the resistance level. Is 21/4/11 low, a pin bar, indicating a reversal to possibly 0.96709, or just a temporary pull back? The lower lows and lower highs of the last few days would suggest we are still in a down trend.

 

With my 10:1 margin I would sell 1 lot at 0.95454 (i.e. once we breach the lowest low of recent times) with a stop loss at 0.9818, profit at 0.8361. Only problem is that is below the lowest low ever. Instead sell 2 lots at 0.95454, stop loss at 0.9636 which is a still a recent support and profit at 0.8908 which is more realistic but still an all time low.

 

What do you think? Can USD/CAD break that 5 year low?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Hi guys. I've been doing a lot of analysis recently and have some thoughts about the USD/CAD I'd like to share.

 

We've been in a down trend for some time. 18-28/3/11 a resistance of 0.98508 was tested but not breached. Next resistance at 0.96709 was tested with a pin reversal/blowout on 18/4/11 with the next daily bar high at the resistance level. Is 21/4/11 low, a pin bar, indicating a reversal to possibly 0.96709, or just a temporary pull back? The lower lows and lower highs of the last few days would suggest we are still in a down trend.

 

With my 10:1 margin I would sell 1 lot at 0.95454 (i.e. once we breach the lowest low of recent times) with a stop loss at 0.9818, profit at 0.8361. Only problem is that is below the lowest low ever. Instead sell 2 lots at 0.95454, stop loss at 0.9636 which is a still a recent support and profit at 0.8908 which is more realistic but still an all time low.

 

What do you think? Can USD/CAD break that 5 year low?

 

do you have a chart? with notes?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

A trend is a trend is a trend and they say that a trend is your friend. However, I am not a breakout trader and if it were me, I would look to see what the action is like on any pullback. (btw, I am also not a forex trader)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

What do you think? Can USD/CAD break that 5 year low?

 

Personally I would not concern myself with that too much and take profits ahead of it. If I had to bet on it though I would assume that it is still support (until it actually breaks).

 

Several currencies are at or coming up to interesting levels.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

we were discussing a similar thing in the office today.

A large number of equity brokers were busy pushing the idea that the AUD is overbought - I wonder if they actually think that the USD is oversold - as thats one of the reasons for the recent rapid rise. This whole idea of a a parabolic move seems to be becoming more prelevant - I am sure its much the same for the CAD.... highs and lows are there to be broken :)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I like the setup, and the reasoning makes sense. Here is my 2 Pips.

 

With your entry and TP you have nice R/R. My only change would be:

I have always attached significance to ROUND numbers, so, I would wait for a breach of 9500, short on a bounce, and target just above 9000.

Going short also carries a slightly positive Roll.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
we were discussing a similar thing in the office today.

A large number of equity brokers were busy pushing the idea that the AUD is overbought - I wonder if they actually think that the USD is oversold - as thats one of the reasons for the recent rapid rise. This whole idea of a a parabolic move seems to be becoming more prelevant - I am sure its much the same for the CAD.... highs and lows are there to be broken :)

 

over the past six weeks the AUD/USD currency pair has been bullish nearly 1000 pips in Aussie strength against the US Dollar (see chart). i think this trade has a way to go

aussie-dollar-1000.jpg.290bf3af788f904cca54ef0fad938314.jpg

 

MMS

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

and from your chart ... the technicals also support it

 

MMS

 

Hi MMS Just wondering what technicals exactly? Be quite interest to hear your thinking on that.

 

Should it break down and depending on how it break) that may well be the case but I'd be interested why you might anticipate what is a major level, that remains untested will break. I am inclined to agree but wearing my traders head I would have to look for a buy down there until (if and when) the level actually breaks.

 

OP your post seemed to be focused on the actual trade rather than analysis (bravo seems to be very few of those here nowadays) Does the trade meet the criteria in your plan? Is the RR OK? Does your plan allow you to sell into support? (and regardless of any ones opinion it is support until it is broken). It really isn't necessary to 'predict' to trade successfully. Regardless of my analysis my plan will have me looking for buys down there or selling pul backs after it is clear that the level is in fact broken.

 

Finally even if we are ultimately heading lower there is a pretty good chance of a reaction (bounce) before price heads down, again wearing the traders hat I'd be looking to buy a pullback after the break.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Topics

  • Posts

    • Agreed since some of the new traders usually lose money in start and some loses more while chasing their lost money and eventually ends up blaming to their brokers part.
    • The crypto market are also in phase of maturing like the forex and other trading assets so we can do much more accurate analysis than before since early days it was purely a luck if the investments in crypto bears results because most of the coins or tokens never come to fruition. Some early birds were also able to make profits on these tokens or coins. e,g., like turtle coin starts with 1 satoshi and go up to 7 sathoshis, quite good rewards. another token lmgx now hovering at 10 started from 1, 
    • How's about other crypto exchanges? Are all they banned in your country or only Binance?
    • Be careful who you blame.   I can tell you one thing for sure.   Effective traders don’t blame others when things start to go wrong.   You can hang onto your tendency to play the victim, or the martyr… but if you want to achieve in trading, you have to be prepared to take responsibility.   People assign reasons to outcomes, whether based on internal or external factors.   When traders face losses, it's common for them to blame bad luck, poor advice, or other external factors, rather than reflecting on their own personal attributes like arrogance, fear, or greed.   This is a challenging lesson to grasp in your trading journey, but one that holds immense value.   This is called attribution theory. Taking responsibility for your actions is the key to improving your trading skills. Pause and ask yourself - What role did I play in my financial decisions?   After all, you were the one who listened to that source, and decided to act on that trade based on the rumour. Attributing results solely to external circumstances is what is known as having an ‘external locus of control’.   It's a concept coined by psychologist Julian Rotter in 1954. A trader with an external locus of control might say, "I made a profit because the markets are currently favourable."   Instead, strive to develop an "internal locus of control" and take ownership of your actions.   Assume that all trading results are within your realm of responsibility and actively seek ways to improve your own behaviour.   This is the fastest route to enhancing your trading abilities. A trader with an internal locus of control might proudly state, "My equity curve is rising because I am a disciplined trader who faithfully follows my trading plan." Author: Louise Bedford Source: https://www.tradinggame.com.au/
    • SELF IMPROVEMENT.   The whole self-help industry began when Dale Carnegie published How to Win Friends and Influence People in 1936. Then came other classics like Think And Grow Rich by Napoleon Hill, Awaken the Giant Within by Tony Robbins toward the end of the century.   Today, teaching people how to improve themselves is a business. A pure ruthless business where some people sell utter bullshit.   There are broke Instagrammers and YouTubers with literally no solid background teaching men how to be attractive to women, how to begin a start-up, how to become successful — most of these guys speaking nothing more than hollow motivational words and cliche stuff. They waste your time. Some of these people who present themselves as hugely successful also give talks and write books.   There are so many books on financial advice, self-improvement, love, etc and some people actually try to read them. They are a waste of time, mostly.   When you start reading a dozen books on finance you realize that they all say the same stuff.   You are not going to live forever in the learning phase. Don't procrastinate by reading bull-shit or the same good knowledge in 10 books. What we ought to do is choose wisely.   Yes. A good book can change your life, given you do what it asks you to do.   All the books I have named up to now are worthy of reading. Tim Ferriss, Simon Sinek, Robert Greene — these guys are worthy of reading. These guys teach what others don't. Their books are unique and actually, come from relevant and successful people.   When Richard Branson writes a book about entrepreneurship, go read it. Every line in that book is said by one of the greatest entrepreneurs of our time.   When a Chinese millionaire( he claims to be) Youtuber who releases a video titled “Why reading books keeps you broke” and a year later another one “My recommendation of books for grand success” you should be wise to tell him to jump from Victoria Falls.   These self-improvement gurus sell you delusions.   They say they have those little tricks that only they know that if you use, everything in your life will be perfect. Those little tricks. We are just “making of a to-do-list before sleeping” away from becoming the next Bill Gates.   There are no little tricks.   There is no success-mantra.   Self-improvement is a trap for 99% of the people. You can't do that unless you are very, very strong.   If you are looking for easy ways, you will only keep wasting your time forgetting that your time on this planet is limited, as alive humans that is.   Also, I feel that people who claim to read like a book a day or promote it are idiots. You retain nothing. When you do read a good book, you read slow, sometimes a whole paragraph, again and again, dwelling on it, trying to internalize its knowledge. You try to understand. You think. It takes time.   It's better to read a good book 10 times than 1000 stupid ones.   So be choosy. Read from the guys who actually know something, not some wannabe ‘influencers’.   Edit: Think And Grow Rich was written as a result of a project assigned to Napoleon Hill by Andrew Carnegie(the 2nd richest man in recent history). He was asked to study the most successful people on the planet and document which characteristics made them great. He did extensive work in studying hundreds of the most successful people of that time. The result was that little book.   Nowadays some people just study Instagram algorithms and think of themselves as a Dale Carnegie or Anthony Robbins. By Nupur Nishant, Quora Profits from free accurate cryptos signals: https://www.predictmag.com/    
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.