Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

Recommended Posts

The Perfect R Portfolio

 

I was recently watching a short video hosted by Market Club. This particular video was a presentation on their “Perfect R Portfolio”. The Perfect R Portfolio is a portfolio of four ETFs (SPY, USO, GLD, and FXE) that are traded based upon Market Club’s “Trade Triangles” technology. The system rules are simple and clear. For each trade you dedicate 25% of your trading capital. Go long when you see a green Trade Triangle and close the position on the red Trade Triangle. These green and red signals are actually price levels that allow you to place your buy stop and sell stop orders and wait for the market to fill your orders. These values are updated weekly. It does not get any easier than that. Such a simple greenlight/redlight system can be very appealing. In short, the Perfect R Portfolio is a complete trading system that provides you exact entry and exit levels.

 

Because the portfolio contains ETFs, does not trade very often and only takes long positions (there is no shorting in the Perfect Portfolio) it seems suitable for trading in retirement accounts such as a 401K. In fact, I do believe this is what the creators had in mind when developing the system.

 

How Do They Do It?

 

I enjoy attempting to figure out what is going on when I see a trading system demonstrated on-line. It’s a challenge and great fun to reverse engineer signals. Market Club’s Trade Triangles were no exception. Don’t get me wrong, I have nothing against Market Club and I do believe they provide a valuable service. However, how they generate signals became an interest for me and in the end, the concept they are using is well known, simple and totally free. Market Club does provide a nice looking chart where buy/sell signals (Trade Triangles) are nicely displayed on-screen.

 

When I examined the entry and exit signals over time I came to the conclusion that the Trade Triangles are nothing more than a classic breakout indicator. That is, they simply take the highest high over the past N days to determine when to go long and then determine the lowest low over the past N days to determine when to close that same long position. More specifically in the case for the Perfect R Portfolio they use a three month channel of price extremes to determine market direction (trend) and use a three week channel to determine entry/exit price levels. Trend trading based upon price channels is well documented and continues to be a valid trading method.

 

Trend: Three month price extreme.

Signal: Three week price extreme.

 

The trend component of the system is used to filter out bearish market conditions since the system only goes long. So, during bearish times we are in cash or cash equivalents waiting for a trend change to bullish.

 

For example, given an ETF we first determine the overall trend. This is done by determining the price extremes based on a monthly chart of the last three bars. Price touching these extreme levels on a daily chart would determine the trend either bullish or bearish.

 

Once the trend is determined a three bar price extreme based on a weekly chart is used to determine when to exit and when to initiate new trades. When the trend changes from bullish to bearish all trades are closed and we don’t open new long positions until the trend becomes bullish.

 

It’s that simple. Below is a trade example.

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=22808&stc=1&d=1288869712

 

 

Cloning The System Logic

 

But how well has the Perfect R Portfolio done? Well, the portfolio is rather new so they don’t provide much backtesting data. Market Club does provide a short PDF report demonstrating how well the system performed during the 2008 market crash. However, Market Clubs price channel breakout concept can be programmed into TradeStation rather easily. TradeStations ability to access several timeframes on a single chart will be required to make this trading system. First, all trades are executed on a daily chart, buy/sell price levels are determined on a weekly chart and trend is determined on a monthly chart. All three of these timeframes can be placed within one chart and accessed by a single TradeStation strategy.

 

Programmer speaking coming up so be warned.

 

First I’ll create a workspace with a chart of one of the ETFs used in the Perfect R Portfolio. I’ll select GLD. I will want to place trades on a daily chart so I set my GLD chart to daily price data. Next I want to generate buy/sell signals based upon a weekly chart. To do this I create a sub-chart of GLD to hold weekly price data within my chart. I can then access this data programmatically by referencing “data2″ in my Easy Language code. I do the same thing for the monthly timeframe of GLD and can access that data by referencing “data3″.

 

Data1 = Daily chart

Data2 = Weekly chart

Data3 = Monthly chart

 

I created a clone of the system and tested the system with the four ETFs over the life of each ETF. Unfortunately TradeStation does not have the ability to test a portfolio of ETFs given a single strategy. This weakness is rumored to be fixed in version nine of TradeStation. Until then we’ll have to test each ETF individually. So how did it do? Not bad for such a simple system. The results are in the table in the section below. You will see that over the life of the system it is profitable. The life of the system is only from 2004 - October 31, 2010. Most of the ETF data only goes back that far!

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=22807&stc=1&d=1288869600

 

Modified R Portfolio With Risk Management

 

The most obvious drawback I see with the Perfect R Portfolio is the lack of a position sizing algorithm based upon the risk per trade. That is, the dollar amount you’re willing to lose based upon the stop level. I might be inclined to use the Percent Risk Model to calculate the number of shares to purchase based upon a 2% risk-per-trade. This would help normalize risk by reducing the number of shares when the market conditions are volatile and increase the number of shares when volatility is waning. Instead the Perfect R Portfolio uses a fixed percentage (25%) of equity for each new trade regardless of risk.

 

In a future post I will add a position sizing algorithm to see if we can improve the results. If you can't wait check out this blog post where I already have posted the updated version. There is also a short video that explains the inputs to the system.

 

Download

 

I was having trouble uploading the TradeStation Workspace to this post but the EasyLanguage code should be attached. You can also download a copy of the Workspace or the EasyLanguage code at my blog. This code is for TradeStation 8.8.

 

If anyone finds an errors in the code or would like to make a suggestion please let me know.

 

Thanks,

Jeff

5aa71040ef38c_PerfectRPortfolio.png.1d90217bc3cf9dbd12e30b3b114e6233.png

Perfect-R-Portfolio-Trades-on-GLD.png.6b416059d963a45aa1b29b668d7d43d9.png

PERFECT_R_PORTFOLIO_CLONE.ELD

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

How closely does the clone match the real deal? Good question.

 

Market Club just posted an alert in regards to their Perfect R Portfolio going long today in USO. They purchased USO at $37.13. The Perfect R Portfolio Clone with data from TradeStation triggered a buy signal today @ $37.31.

 

Occasionally I've noticed these slight price differences and I would assume they are due to the data being supplied from different vendors.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hi Jeff thanks for your post.....i am using on forex as per market club ......looks very good......here tha chart daily on EURUSD......do you see all correct ?

Thanks

EURUSD.png.71ffc728fd907a9fdb0a3580ff2c264f.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Hi Jeff thanks for your post.....i am using on forex as per market club ......looks very good......here tha chart daily on EURUSD......do you see all correct ?

Thanks

 

Looks good Dirk. Never thought to try it on forex.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Looks good Dirk. Never thought to try it on forex.

 

thanks Jeff......in any case the signals must be filtered ...in market club there is a score and they suggest to take the trade at + 70 for long or - 70 for short.......

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
thanks Jeff......in any case the signals must be filtered ...in market club there is a score and they suggest to take the trade at + 70 for long or - 70 for short.......

 

 

How do you compute a 70 or a -70?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Hi Jeff , this is an example of the score......i don't have idea how to calculate....

 

I believe the score is a numerical representation of the trading rules. The code posted above does use a trend filter to filter trades.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Similar Content

  • Topics

  • Posts

    • Date: 12th April 2024. Producer Inflation On The Rise, But Will Earnings Hold Demand Steady?     Producer inflation rose slightly less than previous expectations, but the annual figure continues to rise. The annual PPI rose to 2.1% and the Core PPI rose to 2.4%. The NASDAQ and SNP500 end the day higher, but the Dow Jones continues to struggle. This morning earnings kick off with the banking sector including JP Morgan, BlackRock and Wells Fargo. All 3 stocks trade higher during pre-trading hours. The Euro trades lower against all currencies despite the ECB’s attempt to establish a hawkish tone. USA100 – The NASDAQ Climbs Higher, But Is the Growth Sustainable? The NASDAQ was the only index which did not witness a significant decline at the opening of the US session. In addition to this, the USA100 is the only index which is witnessing indications of a bullish market. The price has crossed onto a higher high breaking the resistance level at $18,269. The index is also trading above the 75-Bar EMA and at the 65.00 level on the RSI which signals buyers are controlling the market. However, a similar large bullish impulse wave was also formed on the 3rd and 5th of the month and was followed by a correction. Therefore, investors need to be cautious of a bearish breakout which may signal a correction back to the 75-bar EMA (18,165). The medium-term growth and its sustainability will depend on the upcoming earnings data.   Bond yields declined during this morning’s Asian session by 18 points, which is positive for the stock market. However, even with the decline, bond yields remain significantly higher than Monday’s opening yield. This week the 10-year bond yield rose from 4.424 to 4.558, which is a concern. If bond yields again start to rise, the stock market potentially can again become pressured. 25% of the NASDAQ ended the day lower and 75% higher. This gives a clear indication of the sentiment towards the technology sector and reassures traders about the price movement. Another positive was all of the top 12 influential stocks rose in value. Apple, NVIDIA and Broadcom saw the strongest gains, all rising more than 4%. Producer inflation read slightly lower than expectations, however, the index continues to rise. The Producer Price Index rose from 1.6% to 2.1% and the Core PPI from 2.1% to 2.4%. Therefore, it is not indicating inflation will become easier to tackle in the upcoming months. For this reason, investors should note that inflation and the monetary policy is still a risk and can trigger strong bearish impulse waves. EURUSD – The Euro Declines Against Major Currencies The European Central Bank is attempting to concentrate on the positive factors and give no indications of when the committee may opt to cut rates. For example, President Lagarde advises “sales figures” remain stable, but the issue remains they are stably low. Officials said the decline in prices generally confirms medium-term forecasts and is ensured by a decrease in the cost of food and goods. Most experts continue to believe that the first reduction in interest rates will happen in June, and there may be three or four in total during the year. Due to this, the Euro is declining against all currencies including the Pound, Yen and Swiss Franc. The US Dollar Index on the other hand trades 0.39% higher and is almost trading at a 23-week high. Due to this momentum, the price of the exchange continues to indicate a decline in favor of the US Dollar.   Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Michalis Efthymiou Market Analyst HMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • $MSFT Microsoft stock top of range breakout above 433.1, https://stockconsultant.com/?MSFT
    • $AMZN stock just another breakout, https://stockconsultant.com/?AMZN
    • $AAPL wow, mega move off the 167.75 lower support area , https://stockconsultant.com/?AAPL
    • $SILK Road Medical stock breakout watch above 19.45 , see https://stockconsultant.com/?SILK
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.