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Tams

Quadruple Witching

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The markets are very quiet. I had one long Cl winner, but 2 wins and one loss on NG. I think it will be a good day to quit early. I would like to go long on Gold, but it is a tough trade to take. What are your thoughts?

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I thought that the day started out a bit scary, with some long whip saw style bars on the charts that I like to trade. Oddly and surprisingly enough, all my trading ended up quite excellent. I had strong winners on the Russell emini, the NQ, and the EURJPY cross. It reinforced for me, yet again, to never try to predict how the markets will trade. My trade system seems to always know best.

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Yes, I agree Tiobingo. I quit early with about half my normal profit target, and of course then the market got in gear. That's ok, I got on with my life and did not have to stess through giving back some of my hard earned profits, if the market had decided not to cooperate. You are right, you never know what the market will bring!

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Nothing wrong with that WorldTrader. I tend to lower my expectations on uncertain days like Fedspeak days or big expiration days. So if I have early success, I'm inclined to quit early and get on with my day too. I don't mind a good excuse to turn the computer off once in a while.

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Am,

How did you do today? The market started off with the head fake long, then short and then long..Short was the word for the day. I got 2 wins on my NQ.

Also, what do you think about the rebalancing the TF this week. Berskhire is moving in...what will that do?

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I don't like trading on the Monday after Quadruple witching so I didn't trade much. I only took 2 NQ trades. I won and lost so pretty much ended up flat on the session. In hindsight I would have been better off not trying to predict the outcome of the day. If I took the next trade according to my regular plan, I would have won and I would have ended hitting my goals. :crap:

 

Re Russell rebalancing will be interesting and I have no clue what to expect from it. If I stay away, my system will probably do great and if I decide to trade through it, I'll probably get slaughtered. lol.. Murphy will sneak in the back door no matter what, I imagine.

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I also tried to outsmart the markets on Friday and didn't trade the TF and NQ because of quadruple witching. They both had really nice days of course.

 

I'm thinking the TF is going to be a little difficult this week with the rebalancing on Friday. I agree with AmCan that I might miss out on a great week by not trading it but I would rather preserve capital. Plus with the NQ continuing to trade great my plan is to focus on it this week. 3 winners today for 9 points on the NQ. Done in the first 30 minutes which is always great as well.

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Am,

The rebalance is This Friday. I feel your pain on trying to predict the market and letting that influence my trading. I was sure it was going up with the strong morning, but I am almost always wrong on my "thoughts on where it will go". So, I just stick to the strategy and plan and take the next trade in the direction it tells me. I may not win today, but I will in the long run! GO NQ!

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Well, my Russell trading was real good this morning. Two trades, two winners, done for the day. Regardless of what's happening fundementally, a good trade system is a good trade system and should continue to give its share of winning trades and an continued edge to take advantage of. It doesn't know about rebalancing but it does know where the next trade is.

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Amcan I'm kicking myself at the moment because I didn't trade the TF today due to the rebalance. It's so important to trade what you see not what you think. Goes to show the market is so much smarter than me. I can't complain too much because I did have a great morning on the NQ.

 

What are thoughts on the Fed statement tomorrow afternoon? Do you trade the index futures during the morning session? Come back for the afternoon session? Always tricky decisions to make on Fed day.

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Cuttshot, Fed Day is a good excuse to stand aside but I find like any other session, trading my method according to my plan tends to work out the best. I've seen fed days where the first 10 trades were all winners. I find that Bernanke testimony days are the worst though. If I were to stand down for any reason, it would be that.

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I would agree. Bernanke speaking is almost guaranteed chop. I'm not expecting anything major out of the fed tomorrow. Rates will be left alone. I'm leaning towards trading a partial position tomorrow during the morning session.

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