Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

UrmaBlume

The Power of Weighted Bias

Recommended Posts

Over the weekend one of our beginning/student traders was exploring the practical application of combined and weighted biases as an indicator.

 

A bias can be as simple as a fast moving average of price is above a slower ma or that an indicator of the balance of trade is making higher lows or lower highs.

 

This bright young person ran standard indicators such as the Jurik adaptive moving average, a moving average convergence and divergence based on different speed and phase settings on the Jurik, an adaptive rate of change and a couple of others on price and our indicators of the balance of trade, trade flow, trade instensity and commercial net trade.

 

He came up with about 12 indications of bias in each of 3 different volume frames, posted them to mapped variables. In a volume frame lower than any of the 3 he retreived, combined and weighted all of those biases into one indicator.

 

The purpose here is not to discuss how we calculate bias but to point out that using very basic indicators biases taken from different volume/time frames can, when properly combined and weighted, provide timely indications of a change in the bias of price.

 

I found this person's work to be worthy of note and below is posted about 4 hours from yesterday's trade in ES, times are PST. The originator of this indicator is now using 3 workstations to try and optimize the weights on the 3-4 dozen inputs that make up the indicator. With some hard work and a bit of serendipity, this is how useful trade decision support technologies are born.

 

bias1.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Are Neural Networks horribly out of vogue at the moment? Back in the day these biases would have been great candidates for inputs to a NN. (Though would still probably benefit from appropriate weighting before being fed in).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Are Neural Networks horribly out of vogue at the moment? Back in the day these biases would have been great candidates for inputs to a NN. (Though would still probably benefit from appropriate weighting before being fed in).

 

Out of vogue is a good thing. Neural Networks, Genetic Optimization routines, Bayesian Networks and MARS (Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines) and others are alive, well and making tons of money for the very small percentage of users that have learned how to deploy them.

 

These are the same technologies that allow a missile to defeat a smart pilot in three dimensions at Mach2 - surely when properly applied they should be able to tell you something about the next few minutes of the S&P.

 

As I mentioned before - the concepts and indicators we show here are but inputs to our final layer of processing/technology. To stimulate original, out of box/vogue thought by smart, thinking, ambitous traders like yourself is why I make these posts.

 

In vogue is buschwa like VSA, Wyckoff, price pivot points, candles and other worthless techniques and processing. The public uses these because they lack the ability to grasp anything that has not been publicly discussed or more important, the ability to create their own.

 

If all it took to beat the markets was to spend a few thousand dollars on software and change a few parameters you couldn't get a cab. Using the sameO, sameO is why so many are either blown out or still trading 2 lots after years of trying.

 

No big, continuous trading success that I have ever seen has come from ANYTHING I have ever seen posted on this or any other board and that includes my posts. I know of no such successful technologies that are available for sale, lease or discussion and that includes ours. Inputs, maybe - final layer - no way.

 

cheers

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

"No big, continuous trading success that I have ever seen has come from ANYTHING I have ever seen posted on this or any other board "

Well DUH! ;)

 

Have a great weekend.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

In spite of trading at 65% of normal volume and volatility, this new work on bias still offered up several good opportunities during today's session and no serious losers.

 

Below that graph is a shot of the level of intensity at yesterday's session extremes.

 

Bon WeekEnd EveryBody

 

 

fridot.jpg

 

618Lo.jpg

 

618Hi.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Topics

  • Posts

    • $MSFT Microsoft stock back up top of the range, breakout watch , https://stockconsultant.com/?MSFT
    • GBTC Grayscale Bitcoin stock top of range breakout watch , https://stockconsultant.com/?GBTC
    • $FSLR First Solar stock nice bull flag breakout, from Stocks To Watch, https://stockconsultant.com/?FSLR
    • Date: 22nd May 2024. UK Inflation Drop Boosts GBP, But Analysts See Correction Signals. The NASDAQ forms its 5th bullish wave resulting in the index trading 8% higher this month alone. Investors are waiting for NVIDIA’s earnings report. The market awaits the release of the latest FOMC Meeting Minutes for further indications on the potential rate adjustments. The US Dollar Index declines to a 7-week low, but can tonight’s Meeting Minutes change the trend? Read below what economists are predicting. UK inflation declines from 3.2% to 2.3% in its largest drop since December 2023. The Pound increases as the inflation rate did not decline to 2.1% as previously GBPUSD – UK Inflation Drops But Does Not Meet Previous Expectations! The GBPUSD is trading 0.30% higher after the release of April’s UK inflation figures. The US Dollar and the Japanese Yen are the worst performing currencies of the day. Traders looking to speculate a rising Pound may benefit from these weakening currencies. The GBPJPY is trading 0.47% higher so far. However, investors should be cautious of any change in price action as the next session (European Market) opens. The UK’s inflation figure fell from 3.2% to 2.3% which is the largest drop in 2024 so far and brings the Bank of England closer to its target. This would normally pressure the currency, but there are some factors which have triggered a bullish Pound. This includes the Core Consumer Price Index which fell from 4.2% to 3.9% instead of falling to 3.6% which were the previous expectations. Also, certain sectors did not see a decline in inflation in April, which is a continued concern. For these reasons, investors have increased their exposure to the Pound, supporting the currency. Also, economists are advising that the weakening inflation rate can increase investment demand which also further supports the country’s economy and subsequently the currency. Furthermore, investors will also need to take into consideration the price condition of the US Dollar individually. Dollar traders will be focusing on tonight’s Federal Open Market Committee’s Meeting Minutes. The market will particularly be looking for clarity on how many adjustments are likely in 2024, if any at all. In addition to this, if an adjustment is likely in July, September or later in the year. If the report indicates less cuts and a delay, the US Dollar potentially can witness further demand and a change in trend. This is something which was particularly seen in April 2024. The price action of the GBPUSD is forming a bullish trend and most trend-based indicators are signalling a higher price. However, there are signs that the price may correct back to the previous range. For example, on the 4-Hour chart the price is witnessing a divergence signal. in addition to this, the price is also trading at a significant resistance level from November, December and January. Though, for the resistance level to become active, the Dollar will likely require support from the upcoming Meeting Minutes. In the short term, sell signals are likely to materialize after crossing 1.27400 and 1.27268.   USA100 – Bullish Trend, But Investor Focus On Meeting Minutes & NVIDIA Earnings The NASDAQ saw a decline in the price as the US Open was approaching, however, the price momentum quickly changed when US investors started trading. The index rose 0.30% by the end of day and was the best performing US index. During the US Session 62.5% of stocks holding a weight of more than 1.00% rose while 37.5% fell. The main price drivers which supported the upward price movement were Microsoft, Alphabet, Apple, NVIDIA and Netflix. Investors will closely be monitoring the upcoming earnings report for NVIDIA, but also the FOMC’s Meeting Minutes. A more restrictive monetary policy can pressure the stock market, but the level of pressure and downward price movement will also depend on the results of NVIDIA’s earnings. Additionally, shareholders will also focus on Intuit’s Quarterly Earnings Report tomorrow evening, but this will have a lesser effect compared to NVIDIA. A concern for intraday traders is the decline in indices around the world in markets which are currently open. For example, the DAX, FTSE100, CAC and Nikkei225 are all trading lower. In addition to this, the US 10-Year Bond Yields are trading 0.0027% higher which is additional pressure on equities. Nonetheless, technical analysis in the medium to longer term continue to point to a continued upward trend. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Michalis Efthymiou Market Analyst HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • $MESO Mesoblast stock attempting to move higher off the 7.19 support area, https://stockconsultant.com/?MESO
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.