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thalestrader

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I've been reading up all the old Thales posts. So much gems here. I'll post FX setups as I see them. Is anyone from the old days still around and trading? Thales, Kiwi, MK, DB, Atto, Forrest... who am I missing...

 

20190202 GU Daily.png

20190202 GU.png

Edited by jfw215

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Entry triggered on the short. 

20190204 GU.png

This area here could also become support. If a counter 123 forms at this support area, will look to reverse long. 

Edited by jfw215

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I’m currently in Fiji checking in on my positions. Looks like GBP would have hit T1 and almost T2. This trade is sure taking a really long time. I can see why with real money the trade would be quite challenging on psych to wait it out. The EUR kept going down and did not bounce at anticipated area. 

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Wow, it's been nearly a whole DECADE since the "core" of this thread. I think it'd be interesting to hear some reflection from some of the thread's core participants, particularly thalestrader. Do you still trade? Has the method/approach remained essentially the same, or has it evolved (or even been scrapped/replaced)? Do you still trade the same markets...have the markets changed? thalestrader, does you daughter still trade?? 

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Posted (edited)
On 5/30/2019 at 5:07 AM, humblepeasant said:

Wow, it's been nearly a whole DECADE since the "core" of this thread. I think it'd be interesting to hear some reflection from some of the thread's core participants, particularly thalestrader. Do you still trade? Has the method/approach remained essentially the same, or has it evolved (or even been scrapped/replaced)? Do you still trade the same markets...have the markets changed? thalestrader, does you daughter still trade?? 

Hi Humble,

I was (mis)fortunately enough to have received an injury that took me out of work the last 2 weeks. During those two weeks, I reviewed this entire thread as well as your trading log. I am curious how you are doing as well. 

There were many things I took away from re-reading this thread and saving over 1000 pages of notes. The biggest thing that I believe that attributed to success was Thales' warm-hearted compassion for self and others. He demonstrated this time after time even stating that he gets stopped out to the tick at least once a week and it is ok. He also consistently told other traders to take it easy, not beat up on self, and mistakes are actually ok.  

Here's why I believe self-compassion/trust is actually the missing piece so many of us have yet to find consistent success. When I take a loss (or miss a gain) I feel as if I did something wrong -> I then criticize/punish myself -> I then seek to avoid self-inflicted pain by searching for remedy -> I then change/modify trading plan, add indicators, or adopt a brand new strategy/guru in hopes that I now have the remedy to not have to experience the automatically generated self-punishment associated with a loss (or missed trade). This cycle continues ad infinitum and it is now many years later in the same game. 

I was listening to Mark Douglas' workshop last night and he said that the key to success is having the belief in your own consistency. Put it another way, do I believe that I can trust myself? If I beat myself up for an outcome that I have no control over than I cannot trust myself. My mind would do what it can to prevent this self-inflicted pain from re-occurring by not following a consistent trading plan (loss avoidance or chasing trades). The only way to become successful (consistently profitable trader) is to be able to maintain self-trust no matter what the next trade outcome is. To do that, I must completely reprogram what a loss/mistake means by thinking in probabilities. 

Mark Douglas has a recipe to help develop this sense of probability thinking in both of his books, which I'm sure you've already read. If not, the simple premise is, execute a simple trading plan that includes a quick scale out and become acclimated to the random nature of the results. Do this for 30 trades without change. The purpose of the quick scale out is to develop a sense of consistently taking money out of the market.

We all started with very positive intentions of creating freedom for ourselves/family and yet it is this exact agenda that causes us to than make ourselves feel bad for not achieving such results. I am now giving up any egoic notion of what a consistently profitable trader means. I take no egoic pride in being consistently successful at swimming or walking. There is no reason for trading to be any other way. Any other way will lead to failure. Imagine how my walking will be if before take each step, I had to ask, is this the right step to take with the right foot? What if I trip? What if I step on sh**? I would not very much want to walk anywhere.

With this all said, I am going to restart this thread with the above Mark Douglas exercise. I will also add the last post Thales posted here:

This thread is nearly six years old. The nut of this approach is to enter the first higher high long or the first lower low short at a significant support or resistance level. If you are not seeing success, two areas of concern might be as follows:

1) You are taking entries all over the place, and not at price levels that have had prior and obvious significance. As price travels from significant support to significant resistance, it will make any number of "lower lows" along the way higher as normal pullbacks and consolidations take place. If you are going to trade in the middle of nowhere, trade for continuations rather than reversals. Ideally, you refrain from trading in the middle of nowhere completely. "Obvious" means even a nine year old looking at the chart can point to the last "Big High" or the last "Big Low."

2) You are cutting profits short. Most who try this approach have no problem with the corollary of cutting one's losses short, especially as the stop level is "built into" the "set-up." However, most also succumb to the too great temptation to cut profits short by moving the stop to breakeven before the re-test of the entry or a HH or LL in favor of the trade direction.

The cure for (1) is to pick a sufficiently liquid market, do your homework before the market opens, identify those areas where you will be looking for a trade, and then only trade if and when price reaches one of those levels and only if price exhibits the behavior defined by the set-up. Trade one market until you get it. After you get it, most should probably still just stick with one instrument.

The cure for (2), assuming you have entered based on the set-up conditions at an obvious S/R level of prior importance, is to set your stop loss, set a profit limit of at least 1 if not 2 times your risk, set an alert via text, email, sound, or what have you that will alert you to the trade being closed, leave the room, and do not come back until you've been stopped for a loss or limited out with your profit.

 

The purpose of the simple trading exercise is to develop belief in self-trust and trading in probabilities:

1) Identify S/R zones on the weekly/Daily/4HR on EU, GU, EJ, AU.

2) Watch order flow as price enters these zones and take the first 15min 123 or limit PB if missed the trade.

3) Fixed targets, 1 at 1R (for Mark Douglas), 1 at next S/R and Fib confluence area based on swing of similar size. If 1R target is too small based on S/R or if it is less than 20 ticks, skip the trade.

4) Stop or targets, no trailing stops.

5) Before each trade, ask "Is this action I am about to take contributing to my belief in consistency and self-trust?" If it's a no, than don't take the trade!

I will be using a $100 forex.com account, assuming 2tick spreads, betting 5% per trade. I will take 30 trades before any adjustments. My hours of operation will be 8am EST to 11:30am EST and 7pm EST to 9pm EST 5 days a week.

I will also keep a weekly review of my progress with the following questions:

How did I do this week with respect to developing belief to consistency and self trust?

How is my trading plan developing?

Have I stuck to my plan or did I deviate? What beliefs contributed to such actions?

How was this week compared to last week? 

How many ticks/R units gained or lost this week? 

What will I do to move forward into the next week? What steps can I take? 

How is my progress thus far? (Scale of -10 to +10) 

 

Best,

J

Edited by jfw215

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The UJ short actually looks like a better long right now on the 15min. I realized after taking my entry that I am looking at a larger TF target with a smaller TF entry. Thales talked about that being a flaw in trading. I will not change my trading plan. However, I will make sure that my targets are aligned with my entry wave. I'm also allowing for reversals should such scenarios present themselves as part of the trading plan. Other than that it is still stop or target. 

Screen Shot 2019-08-20 at 5.17.49 PM.png

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1 hour ago, jfw215 said:

EU short. Not so sure about short EU during Jpy timeframe. Will review the validity of such after batch of trades.

Screen Shot 2019-08-20 at 4.46.50 PM.png

Screen Shot 2019-08-20 at 5.52.19 PM.png

-1R. 

Screen Shot 2019-08-20 at 7.15.21 PM.png

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1 hour ago, jfw215 said:

The UJ short actually looks like a better long right now on the 15min. I realized after taking my entry that I am looking at a larger TF target with a smaller TF entry. Thales talked about that being a flaw in trading. I will not change my trading plan. However, I will make sure that my targets are aligned with my entry wave. I'm also allowing for reversals should such scenarios present themselves as part of the trading plan. Other than that it is still stop or target. 

Screen Shot 2019-08-20 at 5.17.49 PM.png

UJ was also closed out at -1R. something to add to the next round of trades: do not have 2 trades against the same pair. 

Screen Shot 2019-08-20 at 7.11.46 PM.png

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Woke up and saw price did move down 40 ticks and now is forming a LH. I remind myself that the purpose of this current exercise is to develop self trust in consistency so I am not going to do anything other than just let price play itself out. 

Screen Shot 2019-08-21 at 4.46.49 AM.png

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20 hours ago, jfw215 said:

Hi Humble,

I was (mis)fortunately enough to have received an injury that took me out of work the last 2 weeks. During those two weeks, I reviewed this entire thread as well as your trading log. I am curious how you are doing as well. 

Hi jfw215,

I've never had a trading log...I think you might have me mistaken for username "humbled." Mine is "humblepeasant."

I admire your persistence! I wish you all the best!

-hp

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GU closed for -1R. It made it to 2.8R but not quite the 3R. There was also a EU long trade that happened about 4:15am EST. FOMC is over now so let's see if we can get a nice trend setup today.

 

Screen Shot 2019-08-22 at 5.14.05 AM.png

Screen Shot 2019-08-22 at 5.17.38 AM.png

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