Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

thalestrader

Reading Charts in Real Time

Recommended Posts

I've been reading up all the old Thales posts. So much gems here. I'll post FX setups as I see them. Is anyone from the old days still around and trading? Thales, Kiwi, MK, DB, Atto, Forrest... who am I missing...

 

20190202 GU Daily.png

20190202 GU.png

Edited by jfw215

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Entry triggered on the short. 

20190204 GU.png

This area here could also become support. If a counter 123 forms at this support area, will look to reverse long. 

Edited by jfw215

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I’m currently in Fiji checking in on my positions. Looks like GBP would have hit T1 and almost T2. This trade is sure taking a really long time. I can see why with real money the trade would be quite challenging on psych to wait it out. The EUR kept going down and did not bounce at anticipated area. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Wow, it's been nearly a whole DECADE since the "core" of this thread. I think it'd be interesting to hear some reflection from some of the thread's core participants, particularly thalestrader. Do you still trade? Has the method/approach remained essentially the same, or has it evolved (or even been scrapped/replaced)? Do you still trade the same markets...have the markets changed? thalestrader, does you daughter still trade?? 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
On 5/30/2019 at 5:07 AM, humblepeasant said:

Wow, it's been nearly a whole DECADE since the "core" of this thread. I think it'd be interesting to hear some reflection from some of the thread's core participants, particularly thalestrader. Do you still trade? Has the method/approach remained essentially the same, or has it evolved (or even been scrapped/replaced)? Do you still trade the same markets...have the markets changed? thalestrader, does you daughter still trade?? 

Hi Humble,

I was (mis)fortunately enough to have received an injury that took me out of work the last 2 weeks. During those two weeks, I reviewed this entire thread as well as your trading log. I am curious how you are doing as well. 

There were many things I took away from re-reading this thread and saving over 1000 pages of notes. The biggest thing that I believe that attributed to success was Thales' warm-hearted compassion for self and others. He demonstrated this time after time even stating that he gets stopped out to the tick at least once a week and it is ok. He also consistently told other traders to take it easy, not beat up on self, and mistakes are actually ok.  

Here's why I believe self-compassion/trust is actually the missing piece so many of us have yet to find consistent success. When I take a loss (or miss a gain) I feel as if I did something wrong -> I then criticize/punish myself -> I then seek to avoid self-inflicted pain by searching for remedy -> I then change/modify trading plan, add indicators, or adopt a brand new strategy/guru in hopes that I now have the remedy to not have to experience the automatically generated self-punishment associated with a loss (or missed trade). This cycle continues ad infinitum and it is now many years later in the same game. 

I was listening to Mark Douglas' workshop last night and he said that the key to success is having the belief in your own consistency. Put it another way, do I believe that I can trust myself? If I beat myself up for an outcome that I have no control over than I cannot trust myself. My mind would do what it can to prevent this self-inflicted pain from re-occurring by not following a consistent trading plan (loss avoidance or chasing trades). The only way to become successful (consistently profitable trader) is to be able to maintain self-trust no matter what the next trade outcome is. To do that, I must completely reprogram what a loss/mistake means by thinking in probabilities. 

Mark Douglas has a recipe to help develop this sense of probability thinking in both of his books, which I'm sure you've already read. If not, the simple premise is, execute a simple trading plan that includes a quick scale out and become acclimated to the random nature of the results. Do this for 30 trades without change. The purpose of the quick scale out is to develop a sense of consistently taking money out of the market.

We all started with very positive intentions of creating freedom for ourselves/family and yet it is this exact agenda that causes us to than make ourselves feel bad for not achieving such results. I am now giving up any egoic notion of what a consistently profitable trader means. I take no egoic pride in being consistently successful at swimming or walking. There is no reason for trading to be any other way. Any other way will lead to failure. Imagine how my walking will be if before take each step, I had to ask, is this the right step to take with the right foot? What if I trip? What if I step on sh**? I would not very much want to walk anywhere.

With this all said, I am going to restart this thread with the above Mark Douglas exercise. I will also add the last post Thales posted here:

This thread is nearly six years old. The nut of this approach is to enter the first higher high long or the first lower low short at a significant support or resistance level. If you are not seeing success, two areas of concern might be as follows:

1) You are taking entries all over the place, and not at price levels that have had prior and obvious significance. As price travels from significant support to significant resistance, it will make any number of "lower lows" along the way higher as normal pullbacks and consolidations take place. If you are going to trade in the middle of nowhere, trade for continuations rather than reversals. Ideally, you refrain from trading in the middle of nowhere completely. "Obvious" means even a nine year old looking at the chart can point to the last "Big High" or the last "Big Low."

2) You are cutting profits short. Most who try this approach have no problem with the corollary of cutting one's losses short, especially as the stop level is "built into" the "set-up." However, most also succumb to the too great temptation to cut profits short by moving the stop to breakeven before the re-test of the entry or a HH or LL in favor of the trade direction.

The cure for (1) is to pick a sufficiently liquid market, do your homework before the market opens, identify those areas where you will be looking for a trade, and then only trade if and when price reaches one of those levels and only if price exhibits the behavior defined by the set-up. Trade one market until you get it. After you get it, most should probably still just stick with one instrument.

The cure for (2), assuming you have entered based on the set-up conditions at an obvious S/R level of prior importance, is to set your stop loss, set a profit limit of at least 1 if not 2 times your risk, set an alert via text, email, sound, or what have you that will alert you to the trade being closed, leave the room, and do not come back until you've been stopped for a loss or limited out with your profit.

 

The purpose of the simple trading exercise is to develop belief in self-trust and trading in probabilities:

1) Identify S/R zones on the weekly/Daily/4HR on EU, GU, EJ, AU.

2) Watch order flow as price enters these zones and take the first 15min 123 or limit PB if missed the trade.

3) Fixed targets, 1 at 1R (for Mark Douglas), 1 at next S/R and Fib confluence area based on swing of similar size. If 1R target is too small based on S/R or if it is less than 20 ticks, skip the trade.

4) Stop or targets, no trailing stops.

5) Before each trade, ask "Is this action I am about to take contributing to my belief in consistency and self-trust?" If it's a no, than don't take the trade!

I will be using a $100 forex.com account, assuming 2tick spreads, betting 5% per trade. I will take 30 trades before any adjustments. My hours of operation will be 8am EST to 11:30am EST and 7pm EST to 9pm EST 5 days a week.

I will also keep a weekly review of my progress with the following questions:

How did I do this week with respect to developing belief to consistency and self trust?

How is my trading plan developing?

Have I stuck to my plan or did I deviate? What beliefs contributed to such actions?

How was this week compared to last week? 

How many ticks/R units gained or lost this week? 

What will I do to move forward into the next week? What steps can I take? 

How is my progress thus far? (Scale of -10 to +10) 

 

Best,

J

Edited by jfw215

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The UJ short actually looks like a better long right now on the 15min. I realized after taking my entry that I am looking at a larger TF target with a smaller TF entry. Thales talked about that being a flaw in trading. I will not change my trading plan. However, I will make sure that my targets are aligned with my entry wave. I'm also allowing for reversals should such scenarios present themselves as part of the trading plan. Other than that it is still stop or target. 

Screen Shot 2019-08-20 at 5.17.49 PM.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, jfw215 said:

EU short. Not so sure about short EU during Jpy timeframe. Will review the validity of such after batch of trades.

Screen Shot 2019-08-20 at 4.46.50 PM.png

Screen Shot 2019-08-20 at 5.52.19 PM.png

-1R. 

Screen Shot 2019-08-20 at 7.15.21 PM.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, jfw215 said:

The UJ short actually looks like a better long right now on the 15min. I realized after taking my entry that I am looking at a larger TF target with a smaller TF entry. Thales talked about that being a flaw in trading. I will not change my trading plan. However, I will make sure that my targets are aligned with my entry wave. I'm also allowing for reversals should such scenarios present themselves as part of the trading plan. Other than that it is still stop or target. 

Screen Shot 2019-08-20 at 5.17.49 PM.png

UJ was also closed out at -1R. something to add to the next round of trades: do not have 2 trades against the same pair. 

Screen Shot 2019-08-20 at 7.11.46 PM.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Woke up and saw price did move down 40 ticks and now is forming a LH. I remind myself that the purpose of this current exercise is to develop self trust in consistency so I am not going to do anything other than just let price play itself out. 

Screen Shot 2019-08-21 at 4.46.49 AM.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
20 hours ago, jfw215 said:

Hi Humble,

I was (mis)fortunately enough to have received an injury that took me out of work the last 2 weeks. During those two weeks, I reviewed this entire thread as well as your trading log. I am curious how you are doing as well. 

Hi jfw215,

I've never had a trading log...I think you might have me mistaken for username "humbled." Mine is "humblepeasant."

I admire your persistence! I wish you all the best!

-hp

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

GU closed for -1R. It made it to 2.8R but not quite the 3R. There was also a EU long trade that happened about 4:15am EST. FOMC is over now so let's see if we can get a nice trend setup today.

 

Screen Shot 2019-08-22 at 5.14.05 AM.png

Screen Shot 2019-08-22 at 5.17.38 AM.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Topics

  • Posts

    • FUCK OFF and die in a ditch you communist drunken pig   https://www.rt.com/news/471252-juncker-emotional-council-goodbye/
    • Brexit Aftermath: The Market Reaction Of Bitcoin, Gold And Pound Sterling To Headline News In The EURO Zone   After the UK made it public to exit from the EURO bloc, the market cap for Bitcoin and Gold has increased almost by $133 billion and $1 trillion. Is this the Brexit aftermath?   As it is, the end may be near for Brexit. In the recent declaration an accord is reached between the British government and the EU, everyone is on the lookout for the final date Brexit will conclude. And based on this scenario, an analysis is drawn on the aftermath of this separation in the politics of the EURO bloc and the effect on the price of Bitcoin, Gold and pound sterling.   Bitcoin: Since the start of Brexit, Bitcoin’s market cap had spiked higher and recovered about $10 billion worth. Before Brexit, the cryptocurrency of the first choice had been stable in price after crashing to a market cap of about $2.9 billion low around January 2015. However, after the crash, the cryptocurrency had spiked to about 300% within 18 months while the next super halving of the project is expected on the network from 25 to 12.5 fresh Bitcoin’s per 10 minutes.   As of mid-2016, the most liquid GBP market was the London based Coinfloor exchange. The exchange did around 772 Bitcoins’ worth of volume that day, valued back then at around $4.9 million, with data from the technical back end at the Trading view.   The Pound Sterling: The British national currency had crashed by almost 20% on the night of the vote after hitting a momentary high of about $1.5 versus the USD for about 8 months. Since crashing to a low of about $1.2 as at March 2017, the Pound sterling had rallied 6% within a 4-week time frame, after the UK parliament decided to vote and activate the Article 50 while then the Brexit journey began for the UK taking it two years to discuss its planned exit from the EURO bloc.     Gold: The safe-haven asset also spiked higher around the same time frame from mid-March to mid-April 2017 with its price rising about 7% versus the USD. Nevertheless, this scenario didn’t play out on Bitcoin as in March 2017, beginning with its price at $1000, Bitcoin had surged to hit an all-time value of about $1300, as a result of markets expectation for a Bitcoin ETF being endorsed. However, after its nullification was declared on 10th March 2017, the cryptocurrency fell to a low of about $888 which occurred concurrently with the UK’s law passage for its exit from EURO bloc. Ever since then as the UK’s Brexit discussions with the EU raged on, so did the Pound against the US-dollar and Bitcoin gained more to its price.   Bitcoin, Gold, and Pound Sterling Reactions to Brexit During this timeframe transversing Brexit discussion and its process, the Pound lost the majority of its 15% gains recovered, to tumble from a high of $1.43 to hit $1.20 on 3 September. In a similar multi-day timeframe, gold broke out of its basic $1400 resistance level to rally 15% versus the US-dollar. While Bitcoin gained higher, then again, stayed on the level around $8,000—yet the genuine story of those 17 months incorporates the cryptocurrency crashing towards $3,000 (December 2018) preceding the move spiking to a high of almost $14,000 in June this year.   Source: https://learn2.trade     
    • Despite Running To The Highest Close In Six Months, GBPUSD May Fail To Reverse   GBPUSD Price Analysis – October 20 The GBPUSD had closed on Friday above its opening price after recovering from early selling pressure and trending higher for the 4th day consecutively in a row. After failing to reverse from its highs, the FX pair is unstable and due to weekend UK parliament vote on Brexit, with this scenario, the pair is likely to gap while it reopens on Monday morning in Asia (Sunday evening in the US).   Key Levels Resistance Levels: 1.3301, 1.3185, 1.2988   Support Levels: 1.2582, 1.2204, 1.1958   GBPUSD Long term Trend: Bullish On the daily picture, the bulls took charge in the previous session and exited the day above its opening price, however, the pair failed to move past the prior’s day’s trading range and the price likewise failed to reverse below the previous day’s range.   The GBPUSD had rallied upwards to as high as the level at 1.2988 last week, before forming a temporary top there. In the case of a reverse, the fall may be contained by the level at 1.2582 resistance turned support to bring rise resumption.     GBPUSD Short term Trend: Bullish An impermanent top is structured on the level at 1.2988 and intraday bias in GBPUSD stays on the upside. A few consolidations may be seen. Be that as it may, any pullback ought to be contained above the level at 1.2582 support to bring rise resumption.   Meanwhile, on the upside, a break of the level at 1.2988 will stretch out the recovery from the level at 1.1958 to 1.2582 from 1.2204 at 1.3185 next. Without bias analysis, the outlook is bullish and displaying an intact uptrend in the short and long-term.   Source: https://learn2.trade 
    • Date : 21st October 2019. MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 21st October 2019.The week ahead will definitely not be a quite one, with high anxiety on Brexit, the last ECB policy meeting before Mario draghi hand over the ECB presidency to Christine Lagarde and few significant US data prior FED on October 30.Monday – 21 October 2019   Producer Price Index (EUR, GMT 06:00) – The German PPI is expected to drop to -0.2% for September. As expected readings would result in a y/y loss of 0.3% for headline PPI, versus a 0.3% pace for August. Tuesday – 22 October 2019   Retail Sales (CAD, GMT 12:30) – Canadian sales are expected to have increased by 0.6% m/m in August compared to 0.4% m/m in July, with the ex-autos component down -0.3%. Existing Home Sales (USD, GMT 14:00) – Home sales have regained their status as an important indicator after the financial crisis and can have a strong effect on the markets. The release is expected to record a slight -0.2% pull-back in September to a 5.480 mln pace, after a bounce to 5.490 mln in August. In Q2, we saw an average sales pace of 5.287 mln, and we expect a better 5.463 mln pace in Q3. Thursday – 24 October 2019   Services and Manufacturing PMI (EUR, GMT 08:30-09:00) – September PMIs showed a marked contraction in manufacturing activity and a sharp slowdown in services sector growth. This picture is likely to be seen again in the preliminary readings for October, as German Manufacturing PMI has been forecast at 40 and composite at 49.2, which it is still below neutral. Meanwhile, Services PMI is expected to fall to 51.2. The overall Markit for Eurozone is seen at 49.4, signalling stagnation and highlighting the risk that the weakness in manufacturing sectors is spreading. Interest Rate Decision, Monetary Policy Statement and Press Conference (EUR, GMT 11:45 & 12:30) – The ECB is widely expected to keep policy settings on hold after Draghi’s parting shot at the last meeting. The outgoing president pushed through another deposit rate cut and an open ended asset purchase program against the opposition of some of the more senior national central bank heads and incoming president Lagarde will face the task of uniting the board and dealing with growing demands for a comprehensive revision of the ECB’s policy setting framework and in particular the inflation target. Draghi’s last press conference meanwhile will likely focus heavily on calls for fiscal measures to boost the economy in a challenging international environment. Durable Goods (USD, GMT 12:30) – Durable goods orders are expected to fall -1.8% in September, after gains of 0.2% in August, thanks to an expected transportation orders drop. Boeing orders rose to a still-lean 25 from 18 in August. Services and Manufacturing PMI (USD, GMT 13:45) – Preliminary Manufacturing are expected to slip in October, to 50.1 from 51.1, while Services PMIs are likely to rise to 51.3 from 50.9, indicating a slowdown in the sector that has been hit by global trade tensions. Friday – 25 October 2019   German IFO (EUR, GMT 08:00) – In September, the German IFO business confidence came in slightly higher than expected at 94.6. In October, however, the overall business climate reading is seen slightly lower at 94.4. The more forward looking expectations reading is anticipated at 91.8 from 90.8. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • Perfect Trend Lines, PTL, is a short-term trend trading indicator. The lines showing the trend in this indicator is not straight lines like normal trend lines. PTL indicator calculation is simple. First take the 7 bar high and low, then the 3 bar high and low. If the close price is above the 7 bar high and 3 bar high, then an uptrend is identified. When the close price is below the 7 bar low and 3 bar low then a downtrend is identified. These bars are considered as strong trend bars. The magenta line is the 7 bar high or low depending on the trend. The cyan line is the 3 bar high or low depending on trend direction. When price is trading between these 2 lines trend strength is weak.   A magenta diamond shape appears when sell signal is generated. Cyan diamond shape appears for a buy signal. The magenta line can be used as stop loss. The cyan line provides a tighter stop loss level. Strong downtrend bars are marked by a magenta dot at the bar high and strong uptrend bars are marked by a cyan dot at the bottom of the bar.   PTL.zip
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.