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thalestrader

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Shouldawouldacoulda on the EUR/JPY (and USD/JPY). No excuse...basically I had marked the entry on the EJ, and more or less didn't take it because I was just overall discouraged with the week thus far and pretty much wasn't willing to take a trade. I'm very disappointed in myself this week. :( I hope I can turn it around and keep myself together emotionally...

5aa7107bd50c7_EURJPY(15Min)5_24_2011.jpg.fafff2258ccca0e2ad64d0e0abbf4630.jpg

5aa7107bdcee2_USDJPY(15Min)5_24_2011.jpg.25aa4ae5526617ee32cdc463f7c75909.jpg

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Looking at this USD/CHF long

 

Update: stopped at ISL. -1R. I might regret not putting the stop below the double bottom.

5aa7107be6ad6_2011-05-24-TOS_CHARTS.pngUCH15min.thumb.png.7cef53da72ae95a2567711b002640d25.png

5aa7107befa7b_2011-05-24-TOS_CHARTS.pngUCH15minzoomed.thumb.png.18248842ef369c70743db707c7130688.png

5aa7107c0e567_2011-05-24-TOS_CHARTS.pngUCH15minfinal.thumb.png.1850d17afda67d1cc961805ae9f03847.png

Edited by todds

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Looking at this USD/CAD Long. I like the hammer candle coming off support

 

Update: stopped at ISL. -1R.

 

Admittedly this is getting a bit tiresome. It has been a while since I took a trade that moved any manageable distance. Obviously my picker is broken right now. Not sure what it is. Each trade has a reason for entry but the things I am looking at are not what the market cares about apparently.

5aa7107c04ce0_2011-05-24-TOS_CHARTS.pngUCAD15min.thumb.png.539caf4de8c40160de53c1faa2710e48.png

5aa7107c1779b_2011-05-24-TOS_CHARTS.pngUCAD15minfinal.thumb.png.1468c1913a559ebb2946a73aae0b36d3.png

Edited by todds

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Admittedly this is getting a bit tiresome. It has been a while since I took a trade that moved any manageable distance. Obviously my picker is broken right now. Not sure what it is. Each trade has a reason for entry but the things I am looking at are not what the market cares about apparently.

 

If it's any consolation, I'm having a bit of a slow week so far myself. Other than the shouldawouldacoulda on the EJ, it's just been pretty blah.

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Somewhat of a shouldawouldacoulda short on the USD/JPY...

 

I actually wasn't even around my computer to see this one setting up. I really need to get myself straight and come back tomorrow morning fresh with a better attitude/mindset. I think I've gotten a little bit derailed emotionally! So silly, I know. :)

 

However, I would have been hesitant to take this trade in real-time because it's such a small swing. From the blue line to the red line is only 8.3 ticks...with a typical FXCM spread of 2.4 ticks, that would mean a total "risk zone" of 12.7 ticks (it's actually 13.1 ticks on my FXCM chart), 35% of which is just the spread and a tick on either side! On my ninja chart, it looks like price has passed +3R, but in reality, maximum favorable excursion is only about 1.75R at this point... With futures, it might not have been so bad.

 

I think I'm calling it a day...

5aa7107c35593_USDJPY(15Min)5_24_20112.jpg.8424ffc1231c305375068c958b0acf25.jpg

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Somewhat of a shouldawouldacoulda short on the USD/JPY...

 

I actually wasn't even around my computer to see this one setting up. I really need to get myself straight and come back tomorrow morning fresh with a better attitude/mindset. I think I've gotten a little bit derailed emotionally! So silly, I know. :)

 

However, I would have been hesitant to take this trade in real-time because it's such a small swing. From the blue line to the red line is only 8.3 ticks...with a typical FXCM spread of 2.4 ticks, that would mean a total "risk zone" of 12.7 ticks (it's actually 13.1 ticks on my FXCM chart), 35% of which is just the spread and a tick on either side! On my ninja chart, it looks like price has passed +3R, but in reality, maximum favorable excursion is only about 1.75R at this point... With futures, it might not have been so bad.

 

I think I'm calling it a day...

 

I saw that one in hindsight as well and was trying to figure out for future reference what features gave clues as to why that one worked out well. Obviously the fact that it reversed near a swing high resistance level played a role, but I haven't been very successful with some of those types of trades lately. Do you see anything else?

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Do you see anything else?

 

The only thing I might add is that to me, price looked toppy. At the top of an impulsive move, price started to lose steam, started rolling over, etc. It looks distinctly different from a pull-back...rolling over is the description I like. (The downmove looks more like a potential candidate for a pull-back at this point.) And as you've already mentioned, it was approaching a recent swing-high level.

 

But as with anything, I'm sure you can scroll back and find 10 examples of price looking very similarly and spiking upward. That's why it's not easy! :)

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If it's any consolation, I'm having a bit of a slow week so far myself. Other than the shouldawouldacoulda on the EJ, it's just been pretty blah.

 

If it's any consolation... Only 4 of my entry prices have been hit this month out of several planned trades... 1 win, 1 loss, 2 trades in progress:

 

GBP/AUD - Sell stop 1.53103 triggered 14:59 ET 23/5/11. SL 1.53670, TP 1.514

 

EUR/JPY - Buy stop 115.477 triggered 04:08 ET 24/5/11. SL 114.995 TP 116.920

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If it's any consolation... Only 4 of my entry prices have been hit this month out of several planned trades... 1 win, 1 loss, 2 trades in progress:

 

GBP/AUD - Sell stop 1.53103 triggered 14:59 ET 23/5/11. SL 1.53670, TP 1.514

 

EUR/JPY - Buy stop 115.477 triggered 04:08 ET 24/5/11. SL 114.995 TP 116.920

 

Update

 

GBP/AUD stopped out 24/5/11 21:14 ET

EUR/JPY stopped out 25/5/11 01:05 ET

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Currently short the EUR/JPY...

 

UPDATE: Close enough to the dotted magenta line...stop at break-even...

 

UPDATE 2: PT1 filled and I've moved my stop down just a little to lock in some profit on the second half...

5aa7107d1a44e_EURJPY(15Min)5_26_2011.jpg.64ae887107e7d7a3706d6ecc1a9c1983.jpg

5aa7107d1d0ed_EURJPY(15Min)5_26_20112.jpg.24ba0b56f3ed0d29e3f3ca1bd9577e7e.jpg

5aa7107d20220_EURJPY(15Min)5_26_20113.jpg.134f993906201c2177f951c51e185c2d.jpg

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Currently short the EUR/JPY...

 

UPDATE: Close enough to the dotted magenta line...stop at break-even...

 

UPDATE 2: PT1 filled and I've moved my stop down just a little to lock in some profit on the second half...

 

FINAL UPDATE: Moved stop and just got taken out of the second half...

 

(It doesn't really look like it would have taken me out on my Ninja chart, but FXCM did.)

5aa7107d22d94_EURJPY(15Min)5_26_2011.jpg.7875b64ec4bff13631e282fafcea144f.jpg

5aa7107d2747b_EURJPY(15Min)5_26_20112.jpg.9db266f67d3f28485634caa1bade3172.jpg

5aa7107d2a483_EURJPY(15Min)5_26_20113.jpg.dc4469145def4560bd00c352f08f7dfb.jpg

5aa7107d2d706_EURJPY(15Min)5_26_20114.jpg.baec51cefece90011a8ca2b7aefb7703.jpg

Edited by Cory2679
PT2 was cut off the last chart

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Well, no trades for me today...no major shouldawouldacouldas either, really...just kind of a slow day. I guess the week is over!

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=24776&d=1306520304

 

I've been trading and posting consistently for 5 weeks now, so that means I can calculate a 5-week average! I like to track my performance via a trailing 5-week average...

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=24777&d=1306520304

 

This was a tough week for me. For most of the week, I had really fallen off the wagon emotionally. I had lost the mindset of trading to practice, practice, practice, and to learn. I started focusing on the money! If I would miss an opportunity, if there was no opportunity, or if I took a loss (Monday), I was a complete wreck...I was devastated. It was pathetic. haha There were two times this week that I missed out on decent opportuniy that I saw ahead of entry basically because I was too upset to even take a trade! It sounds ridiculous, I know.

 

I think I've gotten back on course now. I actually managed to bring myself (barely) positive for the week and I feel like I'm back to my good mindset...I didn't make any money today and I'm perfectly fine! :)

 

I think a big part of the reason I began to focus on the money is because I was making a little money! I had a pretty decent week last week. I need to keep my head on straight, though.

 

Have a good weekend!

 

Cory

Capture.JPG.d9e0ffb04f12ae691d2ecf3ee724be6d.JPG

Capture2.JPG.a73a2783404bbedfc318f6fa9c91a55e.JPG

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Currently short the EUR/USD...

 

UPDATE: Moved stop to break-even and got taken out...

 

UPDATE 2: Well gosh that was stupid. :( I'm still screwed up emotionally. I really don't know what I'm going to do to pull myself together. Basically while holding the short I saw a tiny pop on the GBP/USD and thought the EUR/USD's next! I'd better get out of this! It's gonna go up!

 

If I was still in this like I should be and had no reason not to be other than my silly fear, I would have my stop at break-even now...price came down, then retraced to about the entry point, then made a new low near my break-even point...

5aa7107d614b3_EURUSD(15Min)5_31_2011.jpg.07bdf65ca513a7b6a08b718c372e25be.jpg

5aa7107d64919_EURUSD(15Min)5_31_20112.jpg.a168292293f9847f5801434e920092ff.jpg

5aa7107d6791d_EURUSD(15Min)5_31_20113.jpg.a8320cc4da5a1fce60725f039135b3c3.jpg

Edited by Cory2679

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I really don't know what to do to keep myself from focusing on the money and letting my emotions get out of control. I basically sit down to trade with a knot in my chest these days. It's unpleasant. And that's a shame because there was a time when I found trading enjoyable/fun.

 

My problem is not my fear of losing money itself, it's about losing my profits (and a pressure I feel to add to those profits). When I started a few weeks ago, I started with about $1k in my account...I didn't really care about losing that. I could trade as though I had nothing to lose and so my emotions stayed under control. It's the $150 of profit that I have that I seem to be scared to death of losing....so it's not purely about money, it's more about performance/profits.

 

I really don't know what to do. Any thoughts??

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I've not gone live yet - still demo trading to learn test etc - but what I am going to do is withdraw all my profits once my account balance exceeds my startup capital. Only when I've been trading successfully for a few months will I then invest more capital into the business. If you can trade $1000 without worrying but the $1150 is too much to work with then take out £150 - problem solved! :>

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Potential USD/JPY short...

 

UPDATE: I got filled but not without 5.1 ticks of slippage!! Jeez... I guess it was because of the consumer confidence news. That's some of the worst slippage I've gotten. :(

5aa7107d72e2a_USDJPY(15Min)5_31_20114.jpg.b9ab0a1888435b34774a009586185485.jpg

Edited by Cory2679

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I really don't know what to do to keep myself from focusing on the money and letting my emotions get out of control. I basically sit down to trade with a knot in my chest these days. It's unpleasant. And that's a shame because there was a time when I found trading enjoyable/fun.

 

My problem is not my fear of losing money itself, it's about losing my profits (and a pressure I feel to add to those profits). When I started a few weeks ago, I started with about $1k in my account...I didn't really care about losing that. I could trade as though I had nothing to lose and so my emotions stayed under control. It's the $150 of profit that I have that I seem to be scared to death of losing....so it's not purely about money, it's more about performance/profits.

 

I really don't know what to do. Any thoughts??

 

I know exactly what you are going through. I primarily trade another method that I don't post here because it's too fast. I'm also in the profit protect mode at this time.

 

Until we achieve a level of mastery profits are hard to come by. Losses are easy. I have decided to give myself permission to trade with fear, screw up trades, get out too early, etc and just focus on picking good entries and slowly (and I mean slowly!) build the account. Today for example I got out of oil with 16 ticks when I could have easily held for 60 ticks over the next few minutes. That's ok. I know that if I keep picking good entries I will eventually get to the point where the profits are large enough to give me a little breathing room. My guess is that $150 profit is not enough breathing room for you yet. Maybe it's $500 or $1,000. You'll know when you get there. The first profits will be the hardest to come by. Until that point I am trying to treat fear as a natural and in some ways healthy thing. Fear has kept me in the game to this point. Without it I would have wiped out a long time ago. Once we achieve a level of consistent mastery the fear will diminish as we notice the account going up more than it is going down.

 

The knots you feel in your stomach are the same ones that any young athlete feels before the big game. With time and consistent success they'll go away.

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    • Date : 26th November 2020.Brexit endgame remains in sharp focus!The USD has remained soft in quiet conditions, while global asset markets have seen little direction. The US Thanksgiving holiday has quelled activity. Europe’s Stoxx 600 traded near flat. Most stock markets in Asia gained, though remained off recent highs. The MSCI World Index is also off its highs, but remained buoyant and on course for a record monthly increase this month. Copper posted a new near 7-year high, and while other base metal prices were also underpinned most remained off recent trend highs. Oil prices saw modest declines after recent gains, which culminated in a nine-month high yesterday.The Brexit endgame remains in sharp focus!Sterling has seen limited direction, continuing to hold gains from month-ago levels of around 1.5% to 2.5% versus the Dollar, Euro and Yen. There is still no breakthrough in down-to-the-wire negotiations between the EU and UK, and there are lots of warnings of border chaos and, from external BoE MPC member Saunders, of long-lasting economic consequences in the event of a no deal exit from the common market.European Commission president von der Leyen said “we are ready to be creative” to get a deal while repeating that “we are not ready to put into question the integrity of the single market.” An Irish government member said that a deal was “imperative” for everyone.The steadiness in the Pound, the principal conduit of financial market Brexit sentiment, reveals that investors remain unperturbed. One explanation is the real money participants are sitting on their collective hands, positioning for an expected deal but waiting on concrete developments and details, while maintaining vigilance on the possibility of there being a no deal by accident.Short-term speculative participants, meanwhile, don’t seem to have had a fruitful time in trying to play the fatiguing myriad news headlines and endless deadlines that have come and gone. The latest and supposedly final deadline, is next Tuesday — December 1 — which leaves just one month for a deal to be ratified on both sides of the Channel. We expect to a deal to materialize at the last minute, just as the withdrawal agreement was seemingly pulled out of the hat at the ultimate minute a year ago. There may even be a fudged extension.Pressure on the UK government is intense. US president-elect Biden warned London that the scope for a deal with the US would be compromised if there is a return of a hard border on Ireland — which is what could happen in a no-deal scenario (the UK government would have the choice between maintaining a free-flowing border on Ireland at the price of breaking up the border integrity of the UK, and possible protests and even violence from loyalists, or breaking the EU withdrawal agreement, which would result in a hard Irish land border).A leaked Whitehall document warns of a “perfect storm” of chaos in the event of a no-deal in the Covid-19 era. There are also pressures on the other side of the Channel to reach an accord. While French President Macron has political incentive to put up a show of fighting over fishing rights, he is not likely to carry through on his threat to veto any deal as other key EU states don’t see the UK’s position on fishing as being unreasonable. France and other nations, and the UK, also need to maintain good relations for security and many other practical reasons.As for the market impact of a deal, much will depend on how narrow the deal is. The narrower it is, the bigger the negative impact on both the UK and EU’s terms of trade positions will be on January 1, particularly the UK’s.Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. 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