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thalestrader

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Mystic, my entry is the blue line, stop is the red line and TP's are the green lines. I caught my first TP then it retraced the entire move on the next bar and stopped me out for a BE trade. See updated post above for the entire trade. Brutal!

 

Just as a follow up to the NZD/USD short the attached chart shows how frustrating trading can be.

 

See the stop out by just pips (blue circle) before returning to hit 2nd profit target. In a previous life I would have been furious, but it has happened so many times I am learning to just take it as part of the game.

 

Next!

5aa710686d95f_2011-04-07-TOS_CHARTS.pngNUpostscript.thumb.png.1a9dd6a2da37e602c14e19decfa9e28d.png

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Looking at this USD/JPY long.

 

I like that it is bouncing off support but don't like the time of day. If it chops around too much longer before breaking out I'll cancel until the Japan open.

5aa710689016e_2011-04-07-TOS_CHARTS.pngUJ15minzoomoutview.thumb.png.21161a047c0b72feb6a3c9902f5f811e.png

5aa7106899f1e_2011-04-07-TOS_CHARTS.pngUJ15min.thumb.png.40bea2a5fa2a3ef0b595a73a63aa93e9.png

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Looking at this USD/JPY long.

 

I like that it is bouncing off support but don't like the time of day. If it chops around too much longer before breaking out I'll cancel until the Japan open.

 

Took partial profits when it dove back through the big round number of 85.00 and the rest under the breakout swing. This was a BE trade. It had promise for a while though.

5aa71068ac44e_2011-04-07-TOS_CHARTS.pngUJ15minzoomoutview.thumb.png.6ecf6ec6ca0457f07a9324f0d63495a7.png

5aa71068b5780_2011-04-07-TOS_CHARTS.pngUJ15min.thumb.png.5924d7ceb3f30e19d527213ea261b5bf.png

5aa71068beaa0_2011-04-07-TOS_CHARTS.pngUJ15minfinal.thumb.png.c4eeaa9a022e9e8aab668ca539fa631b.png

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Todds,

 

I mean what prompted you to take the trade? Was it rejection at the line that subsequently became a "Quad" Top?

 

Yes, the quad top, followed by the big down bar and a lower high. It ultimately worked but it was very volatile and I barely got stopped out for a BE trade

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Potential GBP/USD long...

 

UPDATE: Looking kinda blah...I have to leave my computer for a while, so I'm going to just move my stop to BE and likely get stopped out...but you never know...hopefully I'll be pleasantly surprised when I get back...

5aa71068d99da_GBPUSD(15Min)4_8_2011.jpg.55014d69a044ac39e16fb62bba196e48.jpg

5aa71068de402_GBPUSD(15Min)4_8_20112.jpg.ce1ff831b42896537259fd3b5aceef35.jpg

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Potential GBP/USD long...

 

UPDATE: Looking kinda blah...I have to leave my computer for a while, so I'm going to just move my stop to BE and likely get stopped out...but you never know...hopefully I'll be pleasantly surprised when I get back...

 

FINAL UPDATE: Took break-even on the trade.

5aa7106925312_GBPUSD(15Min)4_8_2011.jpg.2153e52e675da82a58d35a55b259d95f.jpg

5aa710692948a_GBPUSD(15Min)4_8_20112.jpg.d98f9d05bd75a096a3018e3ae6f9d583.jpg

5aa710692da59_GBPUSD(15Min)4_8_20113.jpg.6f8392ce938ed8f14c8f3e74f8413cd9.jpg

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... but it has happened so many times I am learning to just take it as part of the game.

 

Next!

 

If you have a 1R 1st PT and a -1R initial stop, and if the above scenario happens with high frequency, perhaps you ought to consider changing your plan so that you do not move your stop to BE after PT 1, assuming you are taking half at a 1R PT1 and leaving half for a 1+R PT2.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

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If you have a 1R 1st PT and a -1R initial stop, and if the above scenario happens with high frequency, perhaps you ought to consider changing your plan so that you do not move your stop to BE after PT 1, assuming you are taking half at a 1R PT1 and leaving half for a 1+R PT2.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

 

Wow, after reading the 500+ pages of this thread I have anticipated this day! Thank you Thales for taking the time to read and comment on my trades and thank you for all the guidance and information you have provided in this thread. It has opened whole new worlds in my trading.

 

I have been trading for a while and am essentially a break even trader to this point. I look at this as a minor victory considering the number of live trades taken over the past year, but I am ready to move to the next level. Your set-up and trade story ideas have helped a great deal, along with the things DB teaches on the Wyckoff forum and other price action threads I have been studying. I was especially pleased to read your thoughts on initial trade management and how you rarely let a trade take you out at full stop. I used to get very frustrated with BE trades and your ideas have allowed me to give myself permission to cut a trade loose at BE or even slightly negative and look for the next one without getting frustrated. Having said that I do feel that moving from a BE trader to a winning trader will have a lot to do with trade management. I guess it could be said that I am not a consistently winning trader because of trade management but I am also not a consistently losing trader because of trade management.

 

As regards to the particular trade in question I can sleep well with how it was managed. Moving the stop to just behind that big down bar seemed right to me. It was cruel for it to come all the way back on the next bar. The comment about getting nicked by one pip was more of a general lament about how ironic trading can be. Hasn't this happened to all of us a million times, lol?

 

Thanks again for your input and I hope you come back often!

 

Todd

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thales and everyone,

 

I just began reading this thread this morning. I plan to work my way through it (as well as some of db's nice stuff) this week as I get a chance to read it in between trading. Right now I'm on page 20 of 592 so I have a way to go :) But, I wanted to thank thales and everyone else who has contributed, I've gotten a great refresher and sorely needed shot of "KISS" while reading it. Thanks for keeping me sane. I hope to post some setups here too as I see them. Thales, if you and anyone else would be kind enough to critique my setups and trades, I'd be most grateful.

 

~josh

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Here are my levels for tomorrow for TF. Currently we're at 838.7, and I will be looking for shorts at either 842 or 845, or longs at 836, depending on price at those levels. I'm guessing overnight price will meander towards one of those areas and I'll examine things in the morning.

tflevels.thumb.PNG.9dccffe357ed29e9b2258f0d20d23f7b.PNG

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Current look @ G/U and E/U. Will see what develops in a bit with these two trading ranges here.

 

Currently short GU. Stop currently a bit above, if this winds up consolidating into a bull wedge though, will reverse if necessary later. But so far willing to sit through a bit of volatility.

 

If trade continues, will add if chance arrives.

attachment.php?attachmentid=24150&stc=1&d=1302506295

 

--------------UPDATE 2:30CST---------------------------------------------

Still no real retracement yet, but adjusting stop to 1.6363 reducing initial risk by about half.

attachment.php?attachmentid=24151&stc=1&d=1302507113

Prime2011-04-11_020749.thumb.jpg.81ff58fe2db61260b78bb118250ba0c4.jpg

Prime2011-04-11_023025.thumb.jpg.d00aedfe39e849754986b976e569c5c9.jpg

Edited by forrestang

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Currently short GU.......

 

--------------UPDATE 2:30CST---------------------------------------------

Still no real retracement yet, but adjusting stop to 1.6363 reducing initial risk by about half.

 

Looks like my stop was violated. Currently just a tad violated. There was that support below and that OS line down there that provided a bounce.

 

So will just be waiting for a bit. Might just have some consolidation for a while after all that movement during the end of last week. But still two pretty nice ranges so far. I'll be waiting for some movement out of it to get some action.

Prime2011-04-11_064737.thumb.jpg.af4c9c0fec404b531959d70555b56e32.jpg

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nimbletrader - that would make a catchy handle, don't you think?

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

 

Why didn't I think of that?...17 months ago?

 

Oh well...Cory2679's not so bad...

 

Did you know 2679 spells "Cory" on a traditional phone number pad?

 

2679 is the last 4 digits of my cell phone number..."###-Cory" :D

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Looks like a possible Trend Change to downside of current range. Again, will add or reverse if necessary. Will look to adjust stop on reaction.

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=24153&stc=1&d=1302526338

 

 

----------UPDATE 8:11CST-----------------------------------------------

Possible scenarios I'm watching.

 

For EU, currently bidding on a breakdown. But could bounce off of support and complete this bull wedge or whatever this thing is with some strength to upside. Or we could just consolidate for a while.

 

For GU, like Cory has, could break out of this channel with some vigor to upside.

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=24155&stc=1&d=1302527585

Prime2011-04-11_074937.thumb.jpg.7919f0a4dc76ea572005e4759cdeacfc.jpg

EGU_Current1.thumb.jpg.a8cdd1103ddfe89f1a5b1cd98a1ac7e1.jpg

Edited by forrestang

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Potential GU long...

 

UPDATE: That's close enough...moving stop to break-even...

 

UPDATE 2: Stop moved up a little...

 

UPDATE 3: PT1 filled...waiting on PT2...I'm moving my stop on the second half back to break-even...

5aa7106a75092_GBPUSD(15Min)4_11_2011.jpg.125c6308d087e7922fc5ffc7e7775850.jpg

5aa7106a79854_GBPUSD(15Min)4_11_20112.jpg.b3ebb71ed0d29477e1a4f929fc8a80a5.jpg

5aa7106a7ded4_GBPUSD(15Min)4_11_20113.jpg.c5191fa6db2d64d558a2ce132d7add40.jpg

5aa7106a8e6da_GBPUSD(15Min)4_11_20114.jpg.06ac2ae0590555025e310cf1cfa3432a.jpg

Edited by Cory2679

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Great trade, BUT, when I tried to place the order on my live account I found out, as I have not actually traded TF live before, that I'm not on the ICE exchange, and am waiting confirmation to place trades on it. I have the data from my broker, but I have only placed CME trades. So, I took the trade on sim, a great trade, took off 2.5 points, in the money on the 2nd lot, and waiting for TP or stop hit on the 2nd unit.

 

VERY frustrating yet very good on the other hand I suppose :) My original buy limit was aggressive at 835.4, only ONE tick from the bottom ... arg :)

 

EDIT: 2nd contract closed for +2.3 points. So, +4.8 points all together.

 

EDIT 2: Something I can learn from this--not a good stop loss placement, as my stop on the remaining contract was taken out by 2 ticks and now it's broken through the consolidation and moved higher... I suppose with the speed of the move up it was due for at least some retrace. A better placement would have been 837.6, as I more closely examine my tick chart... right below the little consolidation on the move up. Good learning experience. I would be a little more aggressive and move the stop up to 839 at this point though, as it's below the big area of consolidation we just broke through.

tf1.thumb.PNG.d5e2f9e853e6ad8935a33c778b971bb0.PNG

Edited by joshdance

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Potential GU long...

 

UPDATE: That's close enough...moving stop to break-even...

 

UPDATE 2: Stop moved up a little...

 

UPDATE 3: PT1 filled...waiting on PT2...I'm moving my stop on the second half back to break-even...

 

FINAL UPDATE: Break-even on the second half.

5aa7106a9e4fa_GBPUSD(15Min)4_11_2011.jpg.ef3895323287a29d8f3bfb3411d7f137.jpg

5aa7106aa3e90_GBPUSD(15Min)4_11_20112.jpg.9df2bbb86eb9e2ee350fecdd9c9c3fa1.jpg

5aa7106aa8656_GBPUSD(15Min)4_11_20113.jpg.d2331b26b1326aa732b7cc30433c586b.jpg

5aa7106aacace_GBPUSD(15Min)4_11_20114.jpg.aaef55de8d8de6a0f3701c1eb5b1d5e6.jpg

5aa7106ab12ee_GBPUSD(15Min)4_11_20115.jpg.a60c8c509bc5495f076d88a70f92caa4.jpg

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