Reading Charts in Real Time

[Marko23 10]

EUR/USD is back at Short level

[thalestrader 14]

123 signal wins, but I never mix systems

 

Absolutely, Marko. This is why it is important to choose an approach or system in which one has confidence, and then to apply that one approach consistently. I have seen so many fail as traders precisely because they could never really figure out what method they were trading. For example, for myself, I use fibs, EW, various chart patterns, etc. and so on, but all of those are merely tools. My trades are always based upon a long/short sequence at, in or near an anticipated zone of S/R. I do believe the ACD system does have positive expectancy (though, like any system, its actual results will depend more upon the particular trader rather than the system). I am interested in following your tests here.

 

For the entry threshold, the 14 and then 16 ticks, are you testing these numbers arbitrarily, or are you pegging them to some benchmark, such as a % of ATR?

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[Marko23 10]

...

For the entry threshold, the 14 and then 16 ticks, are you testing these numbers arbitrarily, or are you pegging them to some benchmark, such as a % of ATR?

...

 

A (rather complicated) statistical model generates the numbers, they are not from thin air. If all goes well, it may be reduced to something similar to your suggestion. That takes time. It needs a minimum of a month to get some idea of expectancy.

------------------------------------

 

EUR/USD came back to start of Short.

Edited February 18, 2010 by Marko23
Update

[Marko23 10]

Short stopped, could be anticipated from the measured move down

 

Edited February 18, 2010 by Marko23

[Marko23 10]

New setup for long

 

When the Long level is crossed mildly, I'll buy with a stop of 1 tick below the low of the opening interval

 

 

This chart drastically shows, why there is a stop in the ACD-method, which must be followed.

 

The Thales method was much more profitable today than the ACD-method.

Edited February 18, 2010 by Marko23

[patrader 10]

60m Cl chart

[Marko23 10]

EUR/USD consolidates above the Long level.

After that a higher high will get me long.

 

 

Waiting for hh

Edited February 18, 2010 by Marko23

[Marko23 10]

EUR/USD is came back to the open interval.

If this is not a pullback, today will become a -2R day.

 

 

There it is, stopped twice today. I'll switch off.

Edited February 18, 2010 by Marko23

[Mr_black 10]

YM 5 min possible short trade

[Mr_black 10]

YM 5 min possible short trade

 

Short@ 10304 Stop@ 10324 Target@ 10260

[thalestrader 14]

Hi Folks,

 

I had quite a hectic morning and just now I'm ready to get down to it ... The only thing that immediately jumps to my attention is the EURJPY, which would be a short if it doesn't make a new rally high first ...

 

 

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

YM 5 min possible short trade

 

Nice to see you back, Mr. Black ...

 

[ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k816dPQyPAM]YouTube - AC/DC - Back In Black (Live At Donnington) High Quality!!![/ame]

 

 

Music to trade by ...

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

Here's a little demo trade on CL short at 78.82, stop loss 15 ticks, take profit at +50 ticks ...

 

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[thalestrader 14]

Here's a little demo trade on CL short at 78.82, stop loss 15 ticks, take profit at +50 ticks ...

 

Stop is moved to +1R ...

 

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[Mr_black 10]

Short@ 10304 Stop@ 10324 Target@ 10260

PA is against my stop I am closing this trade for -15

[thalestrader 14]

Stop is moved to +1R ...

 

+1R it is (actually a bit better that 1R as there was a 1 tick positive slipage on the exit, but I'm sure that only happens in demo land...

 

 

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[patrader 10]

15m 6E chart

[patrader 10]

6E daily chart

[MidKnight 12]

None of yesterday's plan ended up happening. I had expressed concerns for the long case yesterday with it not making it up to the obvious R on the rally 2 days ago, and then again with it testing so deep within the recent multi-day range. All a sign to me that seller is still in control. However, my current 'trend' framework does not take those into account currently. Yesterday's strong move down to new lows completes the basic pattern of tight multi-day range in a down trend, go up just enough to take out the range high to hit stops and entice longs, and then hammer it back down through to the range for trend resumption. This is the pattern I thought would happen except I thought the rally would go just a little bit higher to test the obvious R. It fell 15 pips short of that on my data and 35 pips short of what I would have considered ideal.

 

Only longs to be had will be scalps unless there is a very very clear capitulation. Should it capitulate I will aim to be out of 1/2 by the time we trade the recent multi-day range low and attempt to trail the rest and scaling out the remaining 1/2 into 2 separate exits.

 

The obvious short to look for is in the recent multi-day range low area, ideally in the 1.5660 - 1.5620 area. Shorts there will be aiming for a new low but will be out of 1/2 before making that new low. I'll attempt to trail the other 1/2.

[thalestrader 14]

...Based on the daily charts, I anticipate high prices for equities and gold, lower dollar...

 

That was a week ago, and we've had higher prices for equities and gold, while the dolar has gone sideways in a choppy consolidation at its highs. This would typically indicate that the dollar would continue higher, eventually. A lesson I learned from Linda Raschke, however, it that the longer a sideways line extends, the more likely it is you are seeing a reversal and not a conitnuation. Right now, the dollar is like a coin, set spinning on its edge, and it is still very unclear, to me, at any rate, whther it will land Bull or Bear.

 

 

 

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

[Marko23 10]

EUR/USD down into May 2009

 

[Marko23 10]

ACD-method test on 5m chart.

Yesterday I oberved that my test of mildness may be too coarse on a 15m chart.

A 5m chart gave no up signal yesterday.

 

Setup for today

[Marko23 10]

EUR/USD 123 setup on 15m chart

 

Long is a correction, trends are down.

 

Looks choppy.

Edited February 19, 2010 by Marko23

[Marko23 10]

...

A lesson I learned from Linda Raschke, however, it that the longer a sideways line extends, the more likely it is you are seeing a reversal and not a conitnuation.

...

 

Good point, confidence in a continuation of the previous move diminishes as time passes by; similar to an EDT.

[Marko23 10]

EUR/USD ACD-method is long