Weekly Analysis

[brownsfan019 17]

Thank you, guy, for you care,

 

But I think we will manage.

 

I'm sure you will.

 

But for anyone else following along here, it should be clear that you said this would be weekly, re-confirmed that it would be weekly and then it hasn't been weekly.

 

So if you are posting for random fun, have at it.

 

But if you are posting w/ the intent of shilling a service later, it's already clear what we are dealing with here.

[Office rat 10]

I wish you were as successful in your trading as in monitoring what other people say on forums.

[brownsfan019 17]

I wish you were as successful in your trading as in monitoring what other people say on forums.

 

I am! Come join us in the p/l thread and you will see for your very eyes.

 

Like I said, your weekly posts are anything but weekly. Do you disagree?

[Office rat 10]

Yes, I disagree cause these weeks we resemled the work.

Sure, this interruption was and other traders are clever enough to note that.

[brownsfan019 17]

Yes, I disagree cause these weeks we resemled the work.

Sure, this interruption was and other traders are clever enough to note that.

 

 

Ok, well if in your book you have been posting weekly, then you have been posting weekly.

 

We may be using different calendars.

 

Back to your weekly posting then. See you next Monday or whatever date would be appropriate for a week for you. If you'd like to inform us dumb traders when your next weekly report will be, I will be on edge waiting for it. But apparently I am not clever enough to know when your weekly report will be. So help me out, when will the next weekly report appear?

[Office rat 10]

4-months of the fiscal half year EUR trend points at 1.33

General background of the second February week was not in favour of the Single European currency. Negative tone was aggravated by weak EU macroeconomic staticstics and Greece's financial problems. Still the most important factor was the decion of China's central bank to raise the reserve ratio for Chinese banks by 50 basis points, which was announced on Friday.

Results and Current Situation

The ending of the second February week was in fact the result of the four months of fiscal half year period as well as the first half of the first 2010 quarter. Since the beginning of the fiscal half year period in October EUR has lost 6,45% against USD by session closing on Friday. 4-month EUR/USD decline comprised 9 figures or 950 points. EUR has lost considerably against currencies dependant of raw materials exports such as AUD and CAD (9% and 9.2%). Technically EUR/USD is moving in a well formed downward trend towards the area of 1.33-1.3350, which can be reached by the end of the 1st quarter of 2010 .

As results of the last week's trade show, EUR is held back from sinking below 1.35 only by 1.3650 area (1.3612-1.3688). In the meanwhile the week's trade of USD against JPY goes around 0.90 without a clear deriction. This fact shows that it is EUR depreciation that plays the key role in the market and not USD growth.

EUR/GBP cross rate decline below 0.8750 helped GBP/USD stay above 1.5650. GBP exchange rates have settled in the comfortable area between the 1.55 and 1.60 levels within a range of 1.57-1.58. This proves once again that the value of EUR is deminishing.

The idea, that the USD is ready to grow, but not yet growing is proved by the fact that AUD/USD climbed from 0.8650 to 0.8870 by the end of trade Friday. Persistant relative USD weakness is also sertified by the fact that by the week's end USD/CAD has declined from 1.07 to 1.05 levels.

Expectations, Prognosis

Within the period from 15 to 19 February curreny market trends will be dominated by Japanese currency purchases for EUR, GBP and raw materials currencies and general

EUR weakness. Federal Reserve rate increase has not become an active factor so far, although it was mentioned in the report by thу FRS President Ben Bernanke. Market participants will be assessing oil market in the range of 71,50-73,50 (Brent oil) and the possibility of prices breaking outside of this range. Apart from that traders will be watching Dow Jones Index dynamics around 10000, within the range of 9850-10150.

Major currency pairs range:

EUR/USD – 1.3350-1.3769, decline

GBP/USD – 1.3350-1.3769, decline

USD/CHF – 1.0669-1.0931, growth

USD/JPY – 0.8931-0.9096, consilidation

AUD/USD – 0.8712-0.8931, consilidation with potential decline

USD/CAD – 1.0431-1.0688, consilidation with potential growth

Brent – 71. 50-73.88, consilidation, potential decline

[Office rat 10]

Time has come for EUR longs profit taking

Financial crisis’ aftermath as well as credit problems of Greece, Portugal and Spain retain their negative influence over EUR to certain extent. This background doesn't let analysts and regular currency market participants to cast off their worries concerning further decline of EUR in the near future. Stock market and raw materials market bubbles are the major threat.

Results and Current Situation

Last week's results have not changed the tendency for EUR depreciation and by the time of session closing Friday February 19th. EUR/USD reached 1,3609. From year start EUR has lost 5,09% against USD.

The major indicator of USD growth last week was USD/JJPY surpassing 0,9150. By the end of the week's trade USD/JPY advanced from 0,8935 and closed at 0,9160. USD gained 2,57% against JPY for the period. USD strengthening in its added to further GBP decline, GBP/USD closed at 1,5470. From year start GBP has lost 6,06% against USD.

Depreciation of EUR, GBP and JPY served as a catalyst for AUD, NZD and CAD growth, all three currencies are dependant on raw materials export. For the week AUD/USD has grown up to 0,8987 and USD/CAD closed at 1, 0391. That is the high levels of "raw materials currencies’" trade, that raises fear for bubbles on the raw materials market. From the start of the year CAD has grown 0,47%, which entailed oil getting more expensive. March North Sea blend Brent crude oil has finished the week at the level, where the year's trade began - 78,45.

Expectations, Prognosis

For the last February week chances are high for USD buying volumes to grow against EUR, GBP and JPY. One of the factors working for USD strengthening is the start of profit taking cycle on EUR long positions; another one is USD buying volume increase. We can also expect profit taking on raw materials market, oil decline and AUD, NZD and CAD downward correction.

Major currency pairs range:

EUR/USD – 1,3350-1,3669, decline

GBP/USD – 1,3350-1,3669, decline

USD/CHF – 1,0688-1,0988, growth

USD/JPY – 0,9112-0,9288, growth

AUD/USD – 0,9031-0,8788, consolidation with decline

USD/CAD – 1,0369-1,0588, consolidation, growth

Brent – 79,31-75,12, decline

[brownsfan019 17]

nice to see you back - maybe this will start to appear weekly? careful, b/c you are starting a trend.

 

[Office rat 10]

Currency Market Review 3/8/10 - 3/12/10.

 

Currency Market Review 3/8/10 - 3/12/10.

Flight into the Commodity Currencies Continues.

Regardless of US and EU macroeconomic statistics’ interpretation, buying of commodity currencies remains the major trading factor. Market participants are not sure, that the current high prices of raw materials and equities have a solid ground, this uncertainty is enhances by doubts concerning further changes in USD value. UE financial perils as well as hesitant economic recovery in the US slow down USD and EUR buying activity. Uncertainty about currency and raw materials market prospects, conversely, boosts AUD, CAD, NOK and NZD buying.

Results and Current Situation

Expectations for increased USD buying on positive economic data failed, by the end of the week EUR and USD value against the 8 currencies basket went down. For the past week, AUD has gained 1.3% against USD and 0.3% against EUR. AUD/USD settled at 0.9075. CAD also appreciated against EUR and USD. CAD added 2.09% against both USD and EUR. NZD and NOK strengthened against USD and EUR as well. EUR, USD have only managed to grow against JPY and GBP.

By the end of the week GBP/USD has declined to 1.5130, USD gained 0.8%. EUR/GBP settled at 1.8990, which reflected 0.7% EUR appreciation. EUR and USD showed equal growth against JPY. On Friday USD/JPY exchange rates closed at 90.30, which makes up 1% dollar appreciation for the week. EUR gained 1.65% against JPY. EUR/JPY cross rate pair has grown from 121.0 to 123.00.

Thus, by the end of the week currency market has come to the impasse choosing a further direction for the second 2010 quarter.

Expectations, Prognosis

All told, market participant mood is likely to shift towards increased USD buying during the current week. USD is used for international commodity trade, it cannot be substituted by a different currency, and therefore USD buying is predestined. EUR trading above 1.35 also speaks in favor of USD growth, as it makes it more profitable to open dollar longs from this important level. Still this week’s trade can go on without a clear direction within narrow ranges.

Major currency pairs range:

EUR/USD – 1,3531-1,3669, consolidation

GBP/USD – 1,4931-1,5269, consolidation

USD/CHF – 1,0669-1,0769, consolidation

USD/JPY – 0,8969-0,9131, consolidation, growth

AUD/USD – 0,9012-0,9131 consolidation

USD/CAD – 1,0231-1,0343, consolidation

Brent – 80,69-78,12 consolidation, possible decline

[Office rat 10]

 

Preliminary Half-Year Results don't Inspire Much Confidence in Euro

Preliminary half-year results look sad for Euro. For the incomplete period of 6 months EUR has already lost 5.6% against USD. Although USD cannot boast great achievements either. It has lost 6.4% against AUD and 5.6% against CAD. Whereas EUR lost even more against CAD, and AUD. Since the start of trade in October 2009 EUR lost 11.4%, against CAD and 11.2% against AUD. Financial problems in Europe still deserve some attention, but investors' concerns have largely waned. US economy needs to keep interest rates low, and in the near future there is no reason to expect a hike. Although commodity currencies dominate the market, that is the end of financial year in Japan (March 31) that becomes the most influential factor. In the end of the past week analysts have finally thought of possible interventions, that Bank of Japan can conduct to stop JPY appreciation. There were talks, that Japan's Central Bank can lower the interest rate. The BoJ meeting will take place March 16-17.

Results and Current Situation

EUR EUR/USD growth on Thursday and Friday reflected increased USD buying and weaker buying interest in EUR. As a result, the weekly EUR/USD trading cycle finished below 1.3769 Friday and therefore the 37-th market pattern remained untouched. The trading range formed during the past 5 weeks in the 1.35-1.37 area is still in place.

GBP. The GBP downward movement continued, it has lost 4.4% from the start of the fiscal half-year. Trade finished at 1.52 Friday. Thus, GBP/USD heading towards 1.48-1.4850 does not raise doubts.

JPY. USD/JPY stays near 90.0 area. On Friday USD/JPY closed at 90.50, and from the start of the fiscal half-year dollar appreciation comprised 70 points. The pair stands still awaiting the BoJ report of the annual financial results.

CAD and AUD. CAD and AUD appreciation remain the major factor in the market. Strengthening of Canadian and Australian currencies displays, that objective commodities assets growth and economic recovery as a whole are yet to come. USD/CAD settled at 1.0189 Friday, March 12 and AUD/USD closed at 0.9150.

The market is dominated by technical indicators of exchange rates' moves for the 5 months period.

Expectations, Prognosis

During the starting week's trade USD buying is likely to increase. CAD and AUD appreciation trend will also remain valid. Some short-term changes in the market are likely to appear by Wednesday, March 17th, when Bank of Japan’s meeting closes, in case USD/JPY get hold in the 91.31-91.69 area, which is very likely.

Major currency pairs range:

EUR/USD – 1,3531-1,3812, consolidation, possible decline

GBP/USD – 1,4931-1,5269, consolidation

USD/CHF –1,0512-1,0769, consolidation, possible growth

USD/JPY – 90,12-91,31, consolidation, growth

AUD/USD – 0,9012-0,9212 consolidation, decline

USD/CAD –1,0512-1,0769, consolidation, possible growth

Brent – 80,69-78,12 consolidation, possible decline

Broco Group chief analyst Vladislav Gurov

[Office rat 10]

Buy USD before it gets expensive

Bank analysts are telling a bare faced lie about their intention to buy USD Quite to the contrary. Banks are buying EUR as long as it has a potential for further decline. Banks are suggesting that the whole market should break the laws of trading logics and buy the appreciating dollar. That is exactly why l banks have started to revise down their forecasts for EUR/USD in the end of the previous week. For example, in the end of the week considerations appeared on the market, that Fed may raise its discount rate and Peoples Bank of China may further tighten reservation conditions. Anticipation of such steps by the Fed and the PBC is enough for USD to grow and for EUR to weaken. Banks being the only professional market participants will chose the most profitable middle term instrument. What will the banks choose? EUR of course, and they will sell appreciating dollar to us and to the rest of the market. The market is ready to obey the rules of this game.

Results and Current Situation

The major indicator of the last week was the preparation for the fiscal half year end, as well as the end of the first 2010 quarter. By the end of the week banks were reassured that the financial crises is coming to its end and Fed is ready to start withdrawing cheap dollar from circulation. The period of dollar accumulation, spurred by anti-crisis measures, which started in the 2nd. quarter of 2009 is over soon. The time of commodity currencies buying for a high and obviously not particularly favorable price is also finishing. We are at the onset of the actual end-phase of the world financial crisis.

CAD, AUD, and NOK. CAD и AUD growth has slowed down considerably for the past week, whereas NOC lost 0.14% against USD. Still, commodity currencies continued to grow against EUR. AUD/USD closed at 0. 9151 on Friday, March 19th. and the week before, March 12th. - at 0.9155 USD/CAD closed at 1.0162, and the week before at 1.0179; USD/NOK grew from 5.83 to 5.90.

EUR EUR/USD trade finished at 1.3530. For the week EUR lost 0,2% against USD.

GBP British pound finished 1.1% lower. The trade closed at 1.5015 Friday.

JPY USD/JPY did not change noticeably, staying within 90.12- 90.69 area. Trade finished at 90.51 Friday.

For the past week conversion operations on the market and the major currencies liquidity have diminished.

Expectations, Prognosis

For the starting week the number of customer orders to buy USD prevails on the market. Most probably more CAD и AUD longs will be closed. Trading volume is likely to lessen, which can cause contradictory movements within 50-100 points range.

Major currency pairs range:

EUR/USD – 1,3412-1,3588, consolidation

GBP/USD – 1,4931-1,5088, consolidation

USD/CHF – 1,0569-1,0669, consolidation

USD/JPY – 90,12-90,88, consolidation

AUD/USD – 9088-9188, consolidation, decline

USD/CAD –1,0131-1,0269, consolidation, possible growth

Brent – 80,31-78,69, possible decline

[Office rat 10]

:pc guru:

Buy USD before it goes up

Last March trading week did not uncover any surprises. Optimistic forecasts for the US economy proved false. Economic growth ratio for the forth quarter was reviewed down. Preliminary data showed DGP growth of 5.9%, the reviewed reading was cut to 5.6% annual rate. University of Michigan consumer sentiment index dropped 0.6% against February. Financial crisis in Greece will be resolved with IMF involvement, but this does not solve general problems of the EU as a whole. European and American stock indexes growth does not inspire much confidence among professional market participants, neither do current energy prices. By the end of the first fiscal half year and first quarter of 2010 there are just as many problems as before, and hopes for the near end of crisis remain hopes.

Results and Current Situation

USD buying volume has grown during the past week and EUR buying has lessened noticeably. Commodity currencies however remained at high levels, which does not guarantee steady growth of commodities and stock markets. For the past week EUR gained 0.8% against the six currencies' basket. USD appreciation against the portfolio comprised 5.7% for the week, still this figure does not point at serious increase in USD buying volume. Japan's Central Bank will release its annual report on March 31st. Professional market participants will not be taking any trading decisions before the report is out.

CAD, AUD, and NOK. For the past week currencies dependant on raw materials export - CAD and AUD - declined against the US dollar. AUD/USD has gone two figures down and closed at 0.9035; USD/CAD went one figure up, to the level 1.0265. USD/NOK closed above an important 6.00 level at 6.03.

Commodities currencies' decline signals unstable conditions for oil, gold and copper markets.

EUR EUR/USD settled 120 points lower at 1.3405. 1.35 range remains intact and attempts to trade EUR/USD around 1.3250-1.3350 did not last. Prices stayed only one day in the $3250-3350 area.

GBP GBP/USD could not break out of strategic 1.50 area either, the pair declined to 1.49 from 1.5012. The week's trade finished at 1.4900.

JPY USD/JPY has grown. Still it closed at 92.50, which gives equal chances for growth towards 95 as well as for decline to 90.

The last trading week before BoJ report of the financial year results was marked by considerably weaker trading volumes on major currency pairs on the interbank market.

Expectations, Prognosis

The starting week will conclude trading cycles of March, the first quarter and the fiscal half year. Conversion operations and liquidity of major currency pairs is expected to increase on the interbank market, this can result in higher volatility. There will not be a definite trading direction this week, whereas short-term speculation risks increase considerably.

Major currency pairs range:

EUR/USD – 1.3388-1.3543, consolidation, out of the market

GBP/USD – 1.3388-1.3543, consolidation, out of the market

USD/CHF – 1.3388-1.3543, consolidation, out of the market

USD/JPY – 92.12-93.31, consolidation, out of the market

AUD/USD – 0.8969-0.9069, consolidation, out of the market

USD/CAD – 1.3388-1.3543, consolidation, out of the market

USD/JPY – 79.12-80.31, consolidation, out of the market

[Jana Jackson 10]

This is a very nice analysis.

[brownsfan019 17]

No posts in all of April from the weekly analysis guy.

 

He must be back to that special trader's calendar that some of us do not have access to.

 

[macdfx 10]

Must be using the Russian Orthodox calendar....seems to be a forex guy working for some firm called Broco.

[jeanlee411 10]

By Friday's closure trading moved up because Russel composition was revised and stocks closed in a combined way against the background of increased volume.

 

NASDAQ closed with 0.5% increase. S&P 500 and NYSE lost 0.1%, Dow fell down for 0.4% having shown the fourth distribution day within recent weeks.

 

IBD 100 added 1.2% having gained due to major indices within the third day in succession.

 

Volume grows, stocks decline due to revise of Russel indices. On the last Friday of June volume grew after it had been declining for the most part of the day. NYSE volume increased for 74% and NASDAQ volume grew for 58%. Indirect proof say that Friday's volume increase was related to Russel re-computation.

 

Widely-known Russell Investments' indexes are recomputed every June. Funds related to Russel were selling or buying stocks in respect of whether they are on the index list.

 

Till the last trading hour the volume of two exchanges was below an average level.

 

Whereas other indexes grew, Dow fell down within 8 among 10 recent sessions.

 

Three shares weight down Dow heavily and they did not relate to Russel. Boeing (BA) fell down for 18% within the last 10 sessions; General Electrics (GE) declined for 13%; and Alcoa (AA) lost 10%.

 

On the last Friday of month the best growth shares grew or sharply went down in a large trading volume – almost equally.

 

American Dairy (ADY) added 2.31 and reached 40.96 in triple volume.

 

Valeant Pharmaceuticals (VRX), which started on Wednesday, lost 1.52 and went down to 24.66 approximately in fivefold volume.

 

Hawkins (HWKN), the company of chemical branch, added 0.80 up to 22.50 in more than 14-times fold volume growth. The share was added to Russel composition.

 

Within the last June days news were combined and did not influence much.

 

Private income rate added 1.4%, above the forecasted rate as of 0.3%.

 

Savings ratio sharply increased from 6.9% and it is the best result from 1993 year. It makes investors concern about economic slowdown.

 

Though the news, which impacted stocks, was ambigious. Retail stocks, which would suffer under such a scenario, grew in general.

 

According to the results of the last week of June, major indexes closed in a combined way, only NASDAQ fixed increase.

 

Nevertheless, IBD 100 grew for 0.7% within the last week of month and gained against a broad market.

[svcz0511 10]

Great informatiom & it's FREE

[brownsfan019 17]

Yep! And it's weekly just like the op promised!

[lencoo12 10]

Very Impressive heavy workout!

 

 

 

bookmarked and b back l8er, bro, :-)

[MadMarketScientist 11]

Nice thread until our "Office Rat" stopped posting. Seems like a lot of people were viewing the weekly forex analysis.

 

Mr. Office Rat if you're still amongst us I'm sure you have some fans who wouldn't mind seeing your analysis resume

 

MMS