Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

gassah

Statistics

Recommended Posts

Ray and James were recently discussing time and price windows, http://tradingsuccess.com/blog/cycle-high-for-sp-ii-873.html

 

Ray calculates the price and time changes of impulsive and corrective swings and uses these stats to:

  1. estimate where a correction might end
  2. determine how overbought or oversold a move is

 

I have a couple of questions on how to distinguish between impulsive and corrective swings. In the first attachment are Barros swings of the SP500. The blue lines are the 5d and and green ones are the next higher time frame, the 18d. If we are calculating the stats for the 5d then the impulsive waves are in the direction of the 18d line and the corrective waves are counter to it. There are a couple of exceptions. If the 5d line is totally covered by the 18d line (7-8) then that line is excluded because it is a higher time frame swing. The second chart has the second exception. If a swing in the direction of the higher time frame line is followed by acceptance back beyond the top or bottom 1/8th of the prior swing extreme, then the swing is counted as corrective, even though it's in the direction of the trend. Swing CD is corrective.

 

I'm not sure about about GH because it's a small swing that fits the above corrective criteria. Are the last swings always impulsive?

 

And in the 3rd attachment is AA-BB impulsive? There's a large retracement and it is part of a 5d range. Thanks.

Swings1.thumb.png.a084e26b5b96c27003d316d76833cf37.png

Swings2.thumb.png.cc797fb4bcdbd1acc894cbf1256efe2d.png

Swings3.thumb.png.5a2c177910dd1902802ce744bb4d1adc.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
it seems to me that AA-BB is impulsive of Subnormal Type (R0 move).

 

Michele

 

Thanks, Michele. I've had many questions answered by the second webinar and see it the way you do.

 

Rob

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

NTES demonstrates the use of the time-price window (TPW). For those not familiar with the TPW it involves calculating the percentage change of prior swings and the number of bars for each of the swings. The goal is to estimate where a reaction will end and it utilizes the security's own history instead of some generic means such as the 50% retracement. It then narrows the window down to encompass approximately 70% of the values. In NTES's case the window ranges from 7-17% and 3-9 days.

 

It hits a MIDAS and then moves up with conviction allowing for an entry.

 

Rob

NTES.thumb.PNG.a588b6bfa1b26205b6eec141cc511a20.PNG

5aa70ee09c6b2_NTESMIDAS.thumb.png.c8848bbc8a3b1d41c030c67426430f15.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Attached are 5d TPWs for some of the stocks I'm following. It seems quite robust but it's a lot of work and very few will have the time or desire to do it.

 

Rob

RIMM.thumb.PNG.f71ecb98be56f9f7b4f5ae981a211932.PNG

AAPL.thumb.PNG.49af936744b99c99f4dec273044e015b.PNG

BIDU.thumb.PNG.ac1a018f82c5234f8aaec6a222f898a8.PNG

PBR.thumb.PNG.1e5d98e674764b0947354c4eb47872cc.PNG

SNDA.thumb.PNG.80250095a1fdb892578703088e6c4d8a.PNG

ASIA.thumb.PNG.5dc2f0d8535314203bef8872a48384eb.PNG

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It doesn't look like a 3 Drives and it's premature to call it an R0 because there needs to be another reaction. If you zoom out there is a trading range that triggered a buy on 6/5.

 

Rob

5aa70ee87d2e9_3Drives.png.42a6f6b87e26e7168110c2e3de0c0045.png

R0.PNG.9e0faafda691e632362b4d78cbf186a8.PNG

5aa70ee88ce01_US.thumb.PNG.e39175f2655fd41ef9257905d608d488.PNG

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I can't seem to find "normalized volume" in the book. Can you tell me what it is or how it is calculated?

 

I purchased the normalised volume program from Kym Haines and he states it does the following:

 

"The program normalises volume based on:

- how a day's volume relates to the volume of the days before it

- what is the history of this volume relationship for similar days in the past (calendar day, day of the week, and many more)

- which type of similar day is the best predictor for the current day

- correcting the actual volume based on predicted behaviour (e.g. boosting volume on expected slow days)"

 

An example that Ray mentioned is July 2nd where volume was much higher after normalization.

Normalised.thumb.png.a76cd95320021434bbbefb0252792d47.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Ahh! Here a couple more that would have been nice to know.

 

Do you happen to know what formats the software uses?

 

Thank you. I am finding the book more and more helpful with your help with my questions and the link to the blog.

5aa70efd2662d_normalized2.jpg.ae83f23ff5f8974540270cb0de34193b.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It's an interesting program. I'm not sure if manipulating volume in whatever manner he does is appropriate or more or less accurate. It costs $200.

 

In Vista I have to use a command prompt so it isn't windows friendly but it isn't difficult to use. You also need at least 10 years worth of volume for it to analyze.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yes please.

i would like to test it as i am doing on other Barros' tool.

As zone i like midas as well fibos anh harmonic but i am not convinced about TPW since i expect that a correction is function only of the strenght of the prior impulse swing in the same timeframe and the current movement in the higher timeframe so not on the very long term statistic.

 

Thanks for your help

 

Michele

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The 1st spreadsheet displays all the 18d corrections since 1979.

 

The 2nd one adds the bins. The bins are evenly spaced numbers that range from near the low of the data and stop with a value above the highest data. In this example a "3" is entered in B7 and 2 is added down the column till 29 is reached, just above the 28.57. In B8 type "=", left click the "3" in B7, type "+ 2", enter, and 5 should appear in B8. Then click the B8 cell and go to the bottom right corner of the cell and drag it down till the 29 is entered in B20.

 

The bin column will take some experimentation. You could start off with "2" in B7 and stop at "30". Starting with 2 or 3 and adding 1 is another option. When you become familiar with a number of examples it'll become easier to decide.

 

Left click to the right of the first bins value in the empty C7 cell and drag down to the final value, C20. Type "=frequency". As frequency is typed you can hit tab to complete the word without typing the whole thing. Click the A7 cell and drag down to the last input A57. Type "," and drag from B7-B20. Hit and hold Ctrl/Shift together and press Enter. This will enter the number of data values that fall within each array. C7 equals 3 because there are 3 data values that are less than or equal to 3 (2.05, 2.75, 2.97). C8 equals 10 because there are 10 data values greater than 3 but less than or equal to 5, etc. See chart 3.

 

If C7-C20 is highlighted there will be the summed value (51) at the bottom right corner of Excel. If it isn't highlighted then you can do it at any time. This number will be used to calculate the percent each binned value represents of the total. In D7 type "=" and click on C7, "/51", enter. Click D7 and drag down from the right lower corner to the end of the values, D20. Highlight D7-D20 and right click in any shaded cell, choose Format Cells, Percentage, Decimal Places 0 and OK. Chart 4.

 

Now beginning with the highest percentage (22) move up and down choosing the highest value. Start at 22 and move to 20, all the time keeping track of the total. You want to stop when approximately 68% is reached as this represents the 1st standard deviation. After 20, 16 is larger than the 6 in D7 so include the 16. 10 is larger than the 6 in D7 so include the 10. The D8-D11 cells total 67% so stop there because more values will exceed 68. These correspond to the B8-B11 cells or an 18d correction of 5-11%. If there are more bins you can count two cells at a time and drop to one cell when 68 is approached. If there are equal initial high values start with the one nearest the center. If there are equal values as you move north and south from the center then include both.

 

Do the same for time which I've included in chart 6. Once you get the hang of it it's a breeze.

 

nic

$COMPX 1.xls

$COMPX 2.xls

$COMPX 3.xls

$COMPX 4.xls

$COMPX 5.xls

$COMPX 6.xls

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Thanks,

it is very clear. I am sorry for let you working so much for the explanation.

So you (and he) use the market profile VA method for determinating the limits of the statistic.

I see 2 problem for TPW application:

first as admitted by himself in a private mail divide the correction form impulse in programming is a problem

second: usually a correction is more a function of previous impulse (Action-reaction principle) and what type of elliott wave we are that on the long term padt stat

 

Thanks again

 

 

Michele

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Topics

  • Posts

    • Date: 11th July 2025.   Demand For Gold Rises As Trump Announces Tariffs!   Gold prices rose significantly throughout the week as investors took advantage of the 2.50% lower entry level. Investors also return to the safe-haven asset as the US trade policy continues to escalate. As a result, investors are taking a more dovish tone. The ‘risk-off’ appetite is also something which can be seen within the stock market. The NASDAQ on Thursday took a 0.90% dive within only 30 minutes.   Trade Tensions Escalate President Trump has been teasing with new tariffs throughout the week. However, the tariffs were confirmed on Thursday. A 35% tariff on Canadian imports starting August 1st, along with 50% tariffs on copper and goods from Brazil. Some experts are advising that Brazil has been specifically targeted due to its association with the BRICS.   However, the President has not directly associated the tariffs with BRICS yet. According to President Trump, Brazil is targeting US technology companies and carrying out a ‘witch hunt’against former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, a close ally who is currently facing prosecution for allegedly attempting to overturn the 2022 Brazilian election.   Although Brazil is one of the largest and fastest-growing economies in the Americas, it is not the main concern for investors. Investors are more concerned about Tariffs on Canada. The White House said it will impose a 35% tariff on Canadian imports, effective August 1st, raised from the earlier 25% rate. This covers most goods, with exceptions under USMCA and exemptions for Canadian companies producing within the US.   It is also vital for investors to note that Canada is among the US;’s top 3 trading partners. The increase was justified by Trump citing issues like the trade deficit, Canada’s handling of fentanyl trafficking, and perceived unfair trade practices.   The President is also threatening new measures against the EU. These moves caused US and European stock futures to fall nearly 1%, while the Dollar rose and commodity prices saw small gains. However, the main benefactor was Silver and Gold, which are the two best-performing metals of the day.   How Will The Fed Impact Gold? The FOMC indicated that the number of members warming up to the idea of interest rate cuts is increasing. If the Fed takes a dovish tone, the price of Gold may further rise. In the meantime, the President pushing for a 3% rate cut sparked talk of a more dovish Fed nominee next year and raised worries about future inflation.   Meanwhile, jobless claims dropped for the fourth straight week, coming in better than expected and supporting the view that the labour market remains strong after last week’s solid payroll report. Markets still expect two rate cuts this year, but rate futures show most investors see no change at the next Fed meeting. Gold is expected to finish the week mostly flat.       Gold 15-Minute Chart     If the price of Gold increases above $3,337.50, buy signals are likely to materialise again. However, the price is currently retracing, meaning traders are likely to wait for regained momentum before entering further buy trades. According to HSBC, they expect an average price of $3,215 in 2025 (up from $3,015) and $3,125 in 2026, with projections showing a volatile range between $3,100 and $3,600   Key Takeaway Points: Gold Rises on Safe-Haven Demand. Gold gained as investors reacted to rising trade tensions and market volatility. Canada Tariffs Spark Concern. A 35% tariff on Canadian imports drew attention due to Canada’s key trade role. Fed Dovish Shift Supports Gold. Growing expectations of rate cuts and Trump’s push for a 3% cut boosted the gold outlook. Gold Eyes Breakout Above $3,337.5. Price is consolidating; a move above $3,337.50 could trigger new buy signals. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.   Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.   Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.   Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!   Click HERE to READ more Market news.   Michalis Efthymiou HFMarkets   Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • Back in the early 2000s, Netflix mailed DVDs to subscribers.   It wasn’t sexy—but it was smart. No late fees. No driving to Blockbuster.   People subscribed because they were lazy. Investors bought the stock because they realized everyone else is lazy too.   Those who saw the future in that red envelope? They could’ve caught a 10,000%+ move.   Another story…   Back in the mid-2000s, Amazon launched Prime.   It wasn’t flashy—but it was fast.   Free two-day shipping. No minimums. No hassle.   People subscribed because they were impatient. Investors bought the stock because they realized everyone hates waiting.   Those who saw the future in that speedy little yellow button? They could’ve caught another 10,000%+ move.   Finally…   Back in 2011, Bitcoin was trading under $10.   It wasn’t regulated—but it worked.   No bank. No middleman. Just wallet to wallet.   People used it to send money. Investors bought it because they saw the potential.   Those who saw something glimmering in that strange orange coin? They could’ve caught a 100,000%+ move.   The people who made those calls weren’t fortune tellers. They just noticed something simple before others did.   A better way. A quiet shift. A small edge. An asymmetric bet.   The red envelope fixed late fees. The yellow button fixed waiting. The orange coin gave billions a choice.   Of course, these types of gains are rare. And they happen only once in a blue moon. That’s exactly why it’s important to notice when the conditions start to look familiar.   Not after the move. Not once it's on CNBC. But in the quiet build-up— before the surface breaks.   Enter the Blue Button Please read more here: https://altucherconfidential.com/posts/netflix-amazon-bitcoin-blue  Profits from free accurate cryptos signals: https://www.predictmag.com/ 
    • What These Attacks Look Like There are several ways you could get hacked. And the threats compound by the day.   Here’s a quick rundown:   Phishing: Fake emails from your “bank.” Click the link, give your password—game over.   Ransomware: Malware that locks your files and demands crypto. Pay up, or it’s gone.   DDoS: Overwhelm a website with traffic until it crashes. Like 10,000 bots blocking the door. Often used by nations.   Man-in-the-Middle: Hackers intercept your messages on public WiFi and read or change them.   Social Engineering: Hackers pose as IT or drop infected USB drives labeled “Payroll.”   You don’t need to be “important” to be a target.   You just need to be online.   What You Can Do (Without Buying a Bunker) You don’t have to be tech-savvy.   You just need to stop being low-hanging fruit.   Here’s how:   Use a YubiKey (physical passkey device) or Authenticator app – Ditch text message 2FA. SIM swaps are real. Hackers often have people on the inside at telecom companies.   Use a password manager (with Yubikey) – One unique password per account. Stop using your dog’s name.   Update your devices – Those annoying updates patch real security holes. Use them.   Back up your files – If ransomware hits, you don’t want your important documents held hostage.   Avoid public WiFi for sensitive stuff – Or use a VPN.   Think before you click – Emails that feel “urgent” are often fake. Go to the websites manually for confirmation.   Consider Starlink in case the internet goes down – I think it’s time for me to make the leap. Don’t Panic. Prepare. (Then Invest.)   I spent an hour in that basement bar reading about cyberattacks—and watching real-world systems fall apart like dominos.   The internet going down used to be an inconvenience. Now, it’s a warning.   Cyberwar isn’t coming. It’s here.   And the next time your internet goes out, it might not just be your router.   Don’t panic. Prepare.   And maybe keep a backup plan in your back pocket. Like a local basement bar with good bourbon—and working WiFi.   As usual, we’re on the lookout for more opportunities in cybersecurity. Stay tuned.   Author: Chris Campbell (AltucherConfidential) Profits from free accurate cryptos signals: https://www.predictmag.com/   
    • DUMBSHELL:  re the automation of corruption ---  200,000 "Science Papers" in academic journal database PubMed may have been AI-generated with errors, hallucinations and false sourcing 
    • Does any crypto exchanges get banned in your country? How's about other as Bybit, Kraken, MEXC, OKX?
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.