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romek222

The Most Unbelievable and Controversial Techniques

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Controversial...

 

Hmmmm...

 

The first one that comes to mind is Jack Hershey. Plenty on him over at elitetrader.

 

Then you have methods based on moon patterns, weather changes, etc. Those are pretty wild if you ask me.

 

Some would say that Gann's work is iffy at best, some love fibs, others hate them...

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Funnily enough some of JH's stuff has roots in reasonably solid techniques. Certainly controversial. Gann published some really solid principles too (money management stuff, quantifying price action etc.) The controversial stuff is all the esoteric 'natural law' and planetary motion portions. Apparently its all locked away in code in his novel tunnel through the air.

 

I was going to suggest some of the out and out scammers that are around now but I guess to be truly controversial you need a small element of 'well maybe it has something'.

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....gann has a bad rep....

.... all his stuff is based on simple concepts of geometry....

....if you can draw a rectangle on a chart.... then you are on the path of gann...

....it is beside the point if he discovered his techniques by reading the bible....

...edit... jack hershey also has a bad rep.... because his writing is loony...

... if you can draw a channel on a chart..... then that is jack hershey....pretty basic...

:0)

Funnily enough some of JH's stuff has roots in reasonably solid techniques. Certainly controversial. Gann published some really solid principles too (money management stuff, quantifying price action etc.) The controversial stuff is all the esoteric 'natural law' and planetary motion portions. Apparently its all locked away in code in his novel tunnel through the air.

I was going to suggest some of the out and out scammers that are around now but I guess to be truly controversial you need a small element of 'well maybe it has something'.

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Yes, it is nice that the SCT boys and gals have not made their way here. I am surprised BF that you did not mention VSA.

 

Hi, I would like to read any summary of criticisms of VSA (not to argue, just to learn).

 

Thanks.

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Hi, I would like to read any summary of criticisms of VSA (not to argue, just to learn).

 

Thanks.

 

Bigdave,

 

I will give you my observation once and then I will let it be for fear of the VSA'ers hacking my computer and deleting all my pretty candlesticks.

 

;)

 

My issue with VSA is this - you look at the threads on VSA and you will find people discussing one chart and half say there was a buy and half say there was a sell. And a few might say do nothing. It's too vague for my liking.

 

:doh:

 

For me, if we are using the same techniques, I can't see how one can argue for a buy and one can argue for a sell. Just doesn't add up to me.

 

But, that's me and I like things a little more clearer. That's probably why I've studied candlesticks and a few other things intently b/c in the candlestick world, I personally find things a little more clean cut.

 

There's my personal :2c: & I won't comment further on the topic. Check it yourself and make your own decision. I made mine.

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:doh:

 

For me, if we are using the same techniques, I can't see how one can argue for a buy and one can argue for a sell. Just doesn't add up to me.

 

But, that's me and I like things a little more clearer. That's probably why I've studied candlesticks and a few other things intently b/c in the candlestick world, I personally find things a little more clean cut.

 

 

And candlesticks are clear cut mmkay. :)

 

BDD have a search for a thread called VSA crock or not? Or something like that.

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Thanks for the comments -- I've been reading that thread as well, and I believe that there might be some merit in the general concept, but that the level of detail applied is probably beyond curve fitting, and the explanations of motivations of the market are stretches.

 

Having said that, I'm going to do some testing on the general concept of weighting range against volume and see what correlation results.

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You will find that range and volume are 'fairly well' correlated :) Of course run the numbers for yourself though. Heavy instrument (e.g. ES) seem to be more so than thinner ones (Z). I only ever looked at a couple of indexes.

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I think Astrology is the most "far out" aspect of trading. That is why Gann got such a freaky rep. I am told that near the end of his life Gann decided to cover his body with geometric tatoos that he used to forecast trades. Lets, see oh yeah there was Joe Granville who thought he could trade by forecasting the low frequency waves that caused earthquakes. Then there's General George McClellan, inventor of the "McClellan Oscillator". McClellan was a confederate general and early riser who liked to stand in front of his tent in his skivvies playing "Battle Hymn of the Republic" on his bugle, all the while discharging his revolver at passing birds. Finally, If I remember correctly, Wells Wilder used to eat psychedelic mushrooms, and then stand naked in the forest with his index finger just touching the top of his head. He would turn seven times and without opening his eyes, walk ten steps forward. If he hit a tree he would short the market that day. If he hit nothing he would go long at the open.

 

I once had a discussion with Dick Cheney on this subject. He seemed to have a real interest in General McClellan, saying that one day he too wanted to try playing the bugle while discharging weapons randomly.

 

I hope this helps.

 

Steve

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I am inclined to agree with you about Gann Steve as you will see from my earlier post. Having said that he had a rock solid grip of price action and money management. Nothing esoteric there.

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Yes I did notice your post. what I find interesting is that there are folks who use some of these approaches (astrology for instance) who for reasons I cannot fathom are really good traders. For instance there's a guy in Australia who uses Gann numbers and Astrology and I have seen him really hit it out of the park. I have no idea how he does it, except to say that he has a very good feel for market action. Just one of the ongoing mysteries of the universe I guess.

 

Good luck in the Markets

Steve

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I have a friend who is a pretty good trader in his own account. He also works in the city on a contract basis. In short he is a bright sort of guy. He is fascinated by this 'natural law' stuff. (They call it that so people don't think they are crackpots :)) He's always researching, sending charts, and telling me days I should be watching. Again he can read price action and has a good grasp of money management.

 

I guess it's essentially cycle stuff, but can't you just measure a swing high to swing high to find a 'cycle'? I do see how a timing method that is based on time (rather than price), or that gives a point in time, could be quite complimentary to a price orientated approach.

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Clearly there are many manifestations of cyclic behavior in the markets. The most obvious are those that are the result of simple human behavior. For instance, one can observe specific changes in volume and price movement every day from just before noon until about 1:30 EST. Other examples include the timing of margin calls, events such as earnings, bond auctions and FOMC meetings all have a cyclic nature. Important Tax deadlines and other events (so called "window dressing" dates) are predictable and cyclic in nature.

 

If you spend any time in an open outcry pit, you can see the cyclical nature of the open every day as retail trades enter the market on open, then the locals move in to absorb that paper and mark the market up or down in response. As one might predict, those same locals almost always go too far in a given direction, and are caught with their hands in the cookie jar when institutions come in to buy or sell. One after another, first the weak hands, then the less skilled locals puke their positions while the smart money takes the market where they want it. All of it is cyclical in nature and contributes to the feeling that markets exhibit a very tidal nature. After all this time, I really don't give it much thought. I just accept it as a part of the game.

 

Good luck everyone

 

Steve

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I always thought that the Wolfe Wave was a pretty odd-ball method, but damned accurate at times - particularly with the projection from the 1 through the 4 points. The entry is always difficult because you are catching a falling knife. I traded the WW for a long time with one excellent trader who traded the Wolfe Wave exclusively. He slept, ate & breathed WWs. He really was good at trading these across the S&Ps and various commodities. We both took the course from Bill Wolfe and I think this guy outdid his mentor. In any event, I could never trade them consistently enough, though they certainly can be traded well.

 

I also think VSA is controversial because controversial people see it as controversial. It must be in their genes :)

 

Eiger

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Filed under "Neurosis Can Be Fun"

 

"what I find interesting is that there are folks who use some of these approaches (astrology for instance) who for reasons I cannot fathom are really good traders."

 

"I think Astrology is the most "far out" aspect of trading."

 

"He is fascinated by this 'natural law' stuff. (They call it that so people don't think they are crackpots )"

 

Reality exists. Call reality by another name, and few will investigate it. Note what current science many 'Bible' passages represent and note how much was left out of the 'Bible' to obfuscate that. Then look at that science's mythological representations/forms.

 

Gann was quite sane and clearly questioned all he ever thought he understood. He then stated only what he could prove he understood so plainly...that most miss it.

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Filed under "Neurosis Can Be Fun"

 

"what I find interesting is that there are folks who use some of these approaches (astrology for instance) who for reasons I cannot fathom are really good traders."

 

"I think Astrology is the most "far out" aspect of trading."

 

"He is fascinated by this 'natural law' stuff. (They call it that so people don't think they are crackpots )"

 

Reality exists. Call reality by another name, and few will investigate it. Note what current science many 'Bible' passages represent and note how much was left out of the 'Bible' to obfuscate that. Then look at that science's mythological representations/forms.

 

Gann was quite sane and clearly questioned all he ever thought he understood. He then stated only what he could prove he understood so plainly...that most miss it.

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