Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

Recommended Posts

If you've taken a look at the ES Journal at ET, you may have seen the 'rule of 10' mentioned. Someone decided to start a journal about it. This idea has always interested me, but I've never done any research into it. Hopefully the journal will keep up and not die down.

 

It's an interesting premise for anyone wanting to look into it.

 

The premise is rather simple - from a reaction high/low when price goes 10 pts from that level, look for a reversal.

 

Here's how I saw today using the OP's chart:

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=7462&stc=1&d=1218083253

 

 

circles = possible reaction zones

arrows = actual trades

 

The OP is making the assumption of a 3 pt stop and 10 pt profit target. So the risk/reward is rather handsome. Of course, now the winning % will be the next issue at hand.

 

For today, 8/6/08, I personally saw 2 possible short trades = one failure and one winner. Depending on entries and exits, the day could be a scratch if out at MOC or better if held overnight.

 

This idea has always interested me, so it will be neat to see the OP carry the journal through.

5aa70e7a34bff_es8-7ruleof10.png.e00eb34412d373eec4a1e3a3ef97e69e.png

Edited by brownsfan019

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Many years ago I bought a rather expensive course that had this as one of its premises. That was based on 1 point stops and 10 point targets. A partial was taken at a point/point and a half if memory serves. ES was a little less volaitile at the time.

 

I cant help feeling that using market structure is a better approach. For example when the ES is averaging 30 points a day, swing size is different to when its averaging 10. Taking account of what swing sizes actually are is likely to help.

 

Are you going to sit through 5 6 7 8 and even 9 point retraces to get your 10 points? If you are why limit yourself to 10 points? I always see risk as a dynamic thing (un booked profits is money at risk). Getting stopped after being up 9 must be a bitch. Especially if say 8 points into the trade you notice you are at major S/R.

 

Alternatively (imo) measuring previous swings to get rough targets is likely to yield better results (AB = CD type of stuff). Or simply using next higher time frame S/R for exits. I guess you could 'optimise' (curve fit!) the 10 point target with some sort of back testing.

 

I guess the appeal is simplicity. You might be interested in Eddie Toppel's stuff too. Even simpler, trade a fixed portion of the day (when trends are likely to develop) enter in a random direction with a fixed number of points stop and reverse, its an always in approach. You could probably improve things with a simple directional bias (e.g. enter long if above the open short below). Essentially a trend following system so lots of smaller losses to get the big win. Benefits from adding contracts to winners.

 

I never understood why people do all the 'clever stuff' on entries only, personally I would rather trade a random entry with a good market structure based exit than a market structure based set up with fixed target exit. (I think). Obviously things tend to improve with both.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Quite a few years ago I used to trade the ES using a simple breakout strategy that did rather well. Once a week I would get a 'home run' or 10 points, this is when I would close the position. Had a look at fading the run but I recall not really seeing much into it and it seemed like trying to catch a top or bottom which is a mugs game in my opinion.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
My view is that any 'system' requires an experienced trader to use a certain amount of discretion.This is why teaching a system to a new trader is merely a step in the right direction (hopefully) on a journey that has many steps.Another problem is that so many of the trading 'truths' - trend is your friend etc, are right but also often wrong.Personally, i think the most vital thing to know at any given point is,are the smart money buying or selling? and to trade in the same direction as them.Not an easy question to answer a lot of the time,so another question you could ask at any given point is,who stands to get hurt the most,bulls or bears? The market is designed to take out your stop and then reverse- wider stops and a lot more patience before entering a trade would serve most struggling traders well (imo)

As to the rule of 10 i am new to this but was reading about it on a journal on another forum and decided to apply it mostly on ohlc rather than attempting to decipher every wiggle.A check on recent ohlc historical data (sp500 cash) looked promising for an add on to my usual strategies.Ohlc are mostly fib ratios so the 2 systems can fit well together (except when they dont!)

 

Good point, It all sounds quite easy really... whats the smart money doing are they buying or selling? accumulating or distributing, who's fueling the rally? know this and you;ve cracked it.. We all know it is'nt easy tho..

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

...yesterday i had only one signal....

 

... the long at 921.75 from 930.75 during AH

 

...couple of other signals... but they were all short of 9 points....

=====================================================

 

...one note about the last signal.... from .. 925.75

... the short signal was 935.75

 

...just like the day before.... it blew thru it ... only to turn around and go below it....

... i took the short... and reversed long on the first retest of this level...

... however ... i did not take half off at plus 5 level... and ended up getting stopped out...

 

.... the lesson is... take half off... and make sure you have a tight stop at break even on the remainder....

Edited by elovemer

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

today... from 940.75 ... the long was at 931.75

 

...currently... put in a pivot at 934.5

========================================

... this signal may not seem important now....

 

... but yesterday... the signal which came around this same time....

... was the only valid signal....

.... and was the only way to have been able to catch that huge up move... without any risk.... by trading the system....

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

....was waiting for you to start the journal ... but you never did....

 

... so i started posting here....

 

---------------------------------

you know what? It's funny you should say that,i have been mullin' over the idea for a while now.Might get it started this week-some foundation work,but am going away for 10 days from sat,so would probably begin trading it after that.

 

Using OHLC with R-10,todays low-940.9 close 951.1 so i am short 951.0 looking to close in early trading tues.The position went into a small loss at the high today (951.6) but futures are dropping overnight,so let's see..

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

you talking about ES on monday ?

must not be talking about ES ..... are you ?

 

those prices sound non-existent

 

Using OHLC with R-10,todays low-940.9 close 951.1 so i am short 951.0 looking to close in early trading tues.

The position went into a small loss at the high today (951.6) but futures are dropping overnight,so let's see..

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

....i was thinking more along the lines of a trade journal to record entries and exits using the rule of ten

 

....that way we could learn from each other and see how others are using it as well....

 

....at least for me .....i am prepared to offer up my entries and exits and the reasoning behind them....

 

00000000000000000000000000000000000000

With this technique you have 2 great enemies.A range breakout.The expiry of one contract.Sorry if this is a bit long winded,but a journal would probably be hard to follow in my case!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Do you still have no interest in a journal of entries and exits... based on rule of ten ?

 

thanks

elo

 

---------------------------------------

mitsubishi mitsubishi is offline

mitsubishi is in search of hidden gems

oin Date: Oct 2006

Location: ipswich

Posts: 141

Thanks: 3

Thanked 3 Times in 3 Posts

iTrader: (0)

Re: Rule of 10

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

---------------------------------------

mitsubishi mitsubishi is offline

mitsubishi is in search of hidden gems

oin Date: Oct 2006

Location: ipswich

Posts: 141

Thanks: 3

Thanked 3 Times in 3 Posts

iTrader: (0)

Re: Rule of 10

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

....i mean ACTUAL entries/exits.... not possible ones...

 

.... with stops as well....

 

any interest ?

 

thanks

elo

 

Sorry,didn't see your post.With futures up tonight we may get a repeat of fri..or we could get a high made first and a pullback.So a possible trade might be short 1036/7 (cash) since fri close and high was 1026.1 and 1027.5 respectively.Though shorting is against the current trend but might be worth a rection/gap play. Near term resistance is 1044. I am expecting a turn around the 31st,,if we are higher then,it could be a decent pullback or if we are lower,then a push from there to 1060 and towards 1100.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

...ES high was 1027

... for RTH signals only .... i don't take it unless there is no gap from the previous session....

 

.... if there is no gap on monday .... then the long would be at 1017 long ...stop 1015 .... or 1018 long .. stop 1015

---------------------------

 

...if there is a gap ... then would take a long ten points below the high after the gapped down opening....

.... in the same manner as above....

 

... i consider AH signals as separate from RTH signals....

 

short 1036/7 (cash) since fri high was 1027.5 ..

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

.... how about this idea ?

 

...everyone contributes their own entries, exits, and stops...

 

....i mean ACTUAL entries/exits.... not possible ones...

.... with stops as well....

 

any interest ?

thanks

elo

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

.... every time i talk about posting actual trades.... i get no response....

 

... why is this a bad idea ?

 

...the rule of ten is simple enough..... what's wrong with this ?

 

.... how about this idea ?

...everyone contributes their own entries, exits, and stops...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

.... if it is paper trading.... it doesn't matter.... just treat it as real trading....

.... that's the only way to learn anything is by doing.....

 

... AH trade.... i prefer RTH trades.... so only half size

... from 20.5 ... order to short 29.5 ... stop at 32.5

 

approximate time of order entry .... 4 am

 

.... i will be using 3 point stops... 9-10 pnt signals....

.... prefer doing half at 9 and half at 10 pnts.....

 

... ... i am using ES only.....

.... although NQ, TF, YM will also work....

 

Ok what the hell..:)

Short 1028 (cash) today 2 contracts

1st target 1018 2nd target 990

stop 1046.

The rally ended yesterday at 1037.7:cool: So 1038 1028 1018... 990 support.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Topics

  • Posts

    • $ARRY Array Technologies stock great day off the 10.96 double support area, from Stocks To Watch, https://stockconsultant.com/?ARRY
    • $MSFT Microsoft stock back up top of the range, breakout watch , https://stockconsultant.com/?MSFT
    • GBTC Grayscale Bitcoin stock top of range breakout watch , https://stockconsultant.com/?GBTC
    • $FSLR First Solar stock nice bull flag breakout, from Stocks To Watch, https://stockconsultant.com/?FSLR
    • Date: 22nd May 2024. UK Inflation Drop Boosts GBP, But Analysts See Correction Signals. The NASDAQ forms its 5th bullish wave resulting in the index trading 8% higher this month alone. Investors are waiting for NVIDIA’s earnings report. The market awaits the release of the latest FOMC Meeting Minutes for further indications on the potential rate adjustments. The US Dollar Index declines to a 7-week low, but can tonight’s Meeting Minutes change the trend? Read below what economists are predicting. UK inflation declines from 3.2% to 2.3% in its largest drop since December 2023. The Pound increases as the inflation rate did not decline to 2.1% as previously GBPUSD – UK Inflation Drops But Does Not Meet Previous Expectations! The GBPUSD is trading 0.30% higher after the release of April’s UK inflation figures. The US Dollar and the Japanese Yen are the worst performing currencies of the day. Traders looking to speculate a rising Pound may benefit from these weakening currencies. The GBPJPY is trading 0.47% higher so far. However, investors should be cautious of any change in price action as the next session (European Market) opens. The UK’s inflation figure fell from 3.2% to 2.3% which is the largest drop in 2024 so far and brings the Bank of England closer to its target. This would normally pressure the currency, but there are some factors which have triggered a bullish Pound. This includes the Core Consumer Price Index which fell from 4.2% to 3.9% instead of falling to 3.6% which were the previous expectations. Also, certain sectors did not see a decline in inflation in April, which is a continued concern. For these reasons, investors have increased their exposure to the Pound, supporting the currency. Also, economists are advising that the weakening inflation rate can increase investment demand which also further supports the country’s economy and subsequently the currency. Furthermore, investors will also need to take into consideration the price condition of the US Dollar individually. Dollar traders will be focusing on tonight’s Federal Open Market Committee’s Meeting Minutes. The market will particularly be looking for clarity on how many adjustments are likely in 2024, if any at all. In addition to this, if an adjustment is likely in July, September or later in the year. If the report indicates less cuts and a delay, the US Dollar potentially can witness further demand and a change in trend. This is something which was particularly seen in April 2024. The price action of the GBPUSD is forming a bullish trend and most trend-based indicators are signalling a higher price. However, there are signs that the price may correct back to the previous range. For example, on the 4-Hour chart the price is witnessing a divergence signal. in addition to this, the price is also trading at a significant resistance level from November, December and January. Though, for the resistance level to become active, the Dollar will likely require support from the upcoming Meeting Minutes. In the short term, sell signals are likely to materialize after crossing 1.27400 and 1.27268.   USA100 – Bullish Trend, But Investor Focus On Meeting Minutes & NVIDIA Earnings The NASDAQ saw a decline in the price as the US Open was approaching, however, the price momentum quickly changed when US investors started trading. The index rose 0.30% by the end of day and was the best performing US index. During the US Session 62.5% of stocks holding a weight of more than 1.00% rose while 37.5% fell. The main price drivers which supported the upward price movement were Microsoft, Alphabet, Apple, NVIDIA and Netflix. Investors will closely be monitoring the upcoming earnings report for NVIDIA, but also the FOMC’s Meeting Minutes. A more restrictive monetary policy can pressure the stock market, but the level of pressure and downward price movement will also depend on the results of NVIDIA’s earnings. Additionally, shareholders will also focus on Intuit’s Quarterly Earnings Report tomorrow evening, but this will have a lesser effect compared to NVIDIA. A concern for intraday traders is the decline in indices around the world in markets which are currently open. For example, the DAX, FTSE100, CAC and Nikkei225 are all trading lower. In addition to this, the US 10-Year Bond Yields are trading 0.0027% higher which is additional pressure on equities. Nonetheless, technical analysis in the medium to longer term continue to point to a continued upward trend. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Michalis Efthymiou Market Analyst HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.