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jerich

USDJPY Discussions

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Whats about today?

 

USD/JPY jumped to 110.28 on the back of unexpected BOJ monetary policy decision; it is currently trading at 110.28 from 109.39 registered right before the news hit the wires.

 

Dont think would be dropping below 110 today though...Overall trend is upward but we could see a downward correction from time to time...

 

Even BOJ is pessimist about their economical strength and had predicted this lacking of Yen's strength long ago..

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Dont think would be dropping below 110 today though...Overall trend is upward but we could see a downward correction from time to time...

 

Even BOJ is pessimist about their economical strength and had predicted this lacking of Yen's strength long ago..

 

:idea: lets see what happened

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Last week the Fed and the Bank of Japan created the perfect back drop for a continuation in the USD value versus the yen. The Fed did not say they were in a hurry to raise interest rates, but they did say the US economy had made sufficient recovery so QE could end on schedule. The BOJ went the other way. They would increase the stimulus, buying ¥80T a year up from ¥60T during the past year.

 

After close to a 900 pip rally, it is always tempting for the novice trader to sell the market since the rally has already carried "too far." Rarely does this work. Markets have an uncanny way of going too far in either direction.

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Who would have thought 115 will be hit so soon. It was there in the background somewhere and been talked about but it will hit 115 from that 106-07 level in just a month or so was so unexpected.

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USDJPY

 

Buy 3rd Target (Overbought Price) at 116.65

Buy 2nd Target (Reversal Price) at 116.17

Buy 1st Target at 115.69

Buy Area at 115.37

WSS Pivot at 115.05

Sell Area at 114.73

Sell 1st Target at 114.41

Sell 2nd Target (Reversal Price) at 113.93

Sell 3rd Target (Oversold Price) at 113.45

 

Trend Summary : BULLISH

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Taking a look at the daily chart of USD/JPY, the correction on Friday was the largest one day decline for the currency pair since mid October. 114 is a near term support level that if broken would pave the way for a decline to 112.30. 112 should hold. If USD/JPY takes out its 6 year high of 115.58, the next stop should be the October 2007 high of 117.95.

USDJPY110914.png.5405178d6307e1981a8c2fbbcc3081d5.png

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Possible to see 118.50 before the end of the week! I will be monitoring that level closely. If we break above I will keep my longs. If we don't, then I will look at maybe scalping this consolidation range!

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I expect another dip to 117.45ish area, which is good for a bullish move. If it continues up from here, I don't have confidence in how far it can go. I'd feel better if it dipped, then took off.

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After the BOJ announced their increased monetary stimulus at the end of October the USDJPY soared from 112.57 to a high of 121.84. Then the market relaxed and a bout of safe haven demand resulted in yen buying which took us all the way to a swing low of 115.57. Following this break the Fed's comments were deemed bullish for equities and the USD, and we rally to 119.31. So what is next?

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The next big meeting is in March so there’s no need to rush any changes. If we are right and the Fed provides no fresh insight at this week’s meeting, their tightening bias will make the dollar more attractive and drive USD/JPY higher.

Technically, there is short-term support at 117.15 and more significant support at 115.57. The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 1998 to 2011 decline at 120.18 will cap gains for the time being.

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Taking a look at the daily chart of USD/JPY, the break above 120 puts the currency pair on track for further gains. However there are a 2 main resistance levels to be mindful of – 120.80 and 121.85. These levels halted previous rallies in the pair. Support is at 120.

USDJPY021215.png.97a3681a3826e1e631ec9b1fb4f870e1.png

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The next big meeting is in March so there’s no need to rush any changes. If we are right and the Fed provides no fresh insight at this week’s meeting, their tightening bias will make the dollar more attractive and drive USD/JPY higher.

Technically, there is short-term support at 117.15 and more significant support at 115.57. The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 1998 to 2011 decline at 120.18 will cap gains for the time being.

 

Right, but 119 is also very strong support/resistance level. I took short when I got a H4 double top at 119,2, for since two or three days I saw no real bullish pressure on UJ. So far so good. Please pay attention that several yen crosses pairs arealso entering resistance area. If they start going south, that will be additional buying pressure on the JPY.

 

Currently (2015 02 19 5 09 AM GMT) the pair is rebounding up on both H4 SMA100 and 200 at 1118,36. If you are confident in the uptrend, nice place to enter long. If you are confident.

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=39012&stc=1&d=1424322464

UJ_H4.thumb.png.7d5acde879c2456202972f9c8c6e66b0.png

Edited by stefcio2002

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Usd/Jpy has been consolidating between 118.00 and 121.00, the pair seems unable to set a clear direction at the moment. I wont want to trade in this pair atm.

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