Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

wasp

Bulls N Bears.. Its All in My Mind

bulls n bears  

20 members have voted

  1. 1. bulls n bears

    • Glass half full? I am just as comfortable long
      1
    • Glass half empty? I'm only happy when I'm shorting
      3
    • Who cares - just concentrate on whats in the glass and ignore bull/bear factor
      16


Recommended Posts

I have this tendency to only feel overtly confident when a market is heading down. This isn't based purely on a psychological factor, a high rate of the time, (currencies) will drop a hell of a lot easier, smoother and longer in a downward movement.

 

Someone once mentioned I should flip the screens so I am always in a 'bear' market and I think it may help!

 

It is a negative, cynical outlook on the world that does it I believe. I am long eurjpy right this second and I do not believe this will break the highs and continue up for a few hundred pips.

 

If I turned the screen upside down though, I would be marking on the major levels for the next 300 pips lower ready.........

 

Anyhow, I am curious to others thoughts on whether they find their personality plays a part in this way?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I have this tendency to only feel overtly confident when a market is heading down. This isn't based purely on a psychological factor, a high rate of the time, (currencies) will drop a hell of a lot easier, smoother and longer in a downward movement.

 

Someone once mentioned I should flip the screens so I am always in a 'bear' market and I think it may help!

 

It is a negative, cynical outlook on the world that does it I believe. I am long eurjpy right this second and I do not believe this will break the highs and continue up for a few hundred pips.

 

If I turned the screen upside down though, I would be marking on the major levels for the next 300 pips lower ready.........

 

Anyhow, I am curious to others thoughts on whether they find their personality plays a part in this way?

 

I have pretty much the same mindset.

It seems to me that prices can collapse down with gaps, more easily more often, than they tend to rise.

It would be interesting to know some actual stats on this in terms of seconds/minutes/pips movement etc. as perhaps there is a possiblity that i am over imagining the significance of the difference between rise/fall speed/ease.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think part of it for me at least is knowing that when the market drops, it drops much quicker than it typically rises. When we are in a true down move, that thing can move b/c there are many that simply only go long. Some can ONLY go long (mutual funds). So when those stop levels are hit, there can be a tremendous domino effect.

 

There is a big danger however in getting overly optimistic about taking shorts. Need to take what's in front of you w/ no bias whether that trade is long or short, unless of course your methodology calls for that bias.

 

Usually we see longs grind it out and take time to get to profit areas (unless drive by news), meanwhile a shorting wave can take seconds or minutes depending on the move you are riding.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

It is a negative, cynical outlook on the world that does it I believe ...

 

Anyhow, I am curious to others thoughts on whether they find their personality plays a part in this way?

 

You may be cynical on the world, but you must be optimistic on yourself. You would have to be in order to trade well. I prefer shorting, too. I think it is because of the quick profits. I also think it is because the market turns over more quickly at tops than bottoms. I find I have more stop losses in buying than in shorting. Because it takes longer, I think bottoms are harder to read than tops, so that is another factor for me.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Don't you find though that folks have a tendancy to embrace & overemphasize bad news more than they do good news?

 

I guess that (fear) simply knocks onto trading as it does in the wider world. I guess maybe a good percentage of it is pre-conditioned.

 

Offer someone an item of good news & they'll fish & ferret around for confirmation first, allowing the good news to begin cooling off.

 

Pitch in a sorry tale of woe or panic & they go all out & stampede it to death :o

 

Human nature is a strange condition for sure.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I never pick the tops and bottoms, I just wait for it to start a new trend, so short or long doesn't matter much to me. I do agree that in the stock/index futures world down is faster than up most of the time but I find I probably do about as well in either situation.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I have this tendency to only feel overtly confident when a market is heading down. This isn't based purely on a psychological factor, a high rate of the time, (currencies) will drop a hell of a lot easier, smoother and longer in a downward movement.

 

Hi wasp,

 

With regard to currencies - that is completely and totally all in your mind. Currencies are a relationship. No matter which way it is moving, one of the currencies is appreciating while the other is depreciating. Does it make sense to you if I said a spread (relationship) of gold and silver always "will drop a hell of a lot easier, smoother and longer in a downward movement". Thinking about the basis for your assumptions can go a long way towards your personal growth.

 

My best regards,

MK

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Don't you find though that folks have a tendancy to embrace & overemphasize bad news more than they do good news?

 

I guess that (fear) simply knocks onto trading as it does in the wider world. I guess maybe a good percentage of it is pre-conditioned.

.

 

I think that's a good point... fear is imo a greater emotion than greed. Markets are just a representation of human psychology, right?

 

Still, JT1 put forward an interesting question. We should back up what we "feel" or "think" by some numbers. Just out of curiosity, I'd like to know about how sharp rises and falls generally compare. It's also interesting we always talk about "selling climaxes" but a buying climax is mentioned far less...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Days with the greatest gain (net and percentage wise):

 

http://www.djindexes.com/mdsidx/index.cfm?event=showavgstats#no3

 

Days with the greatest loss (net and percentage wise):

 

http://www.djindexes.com/mdsidx/index.cfm?event=showavgstats#no4

 

 

It's remarkable, that aside from 1914 and the crash in 1987, the greatest gain days are all around +/- 10%, but the worst days are actually smaller percentage wise.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It helps to know whether you trade better to the long side or to the short side, or if there isn't much of a difference. Do you keep metrics on your trading? For example, What percentage of your shorts are winners vs what percentage of your longs. What about points or pips? Does your average short result in more profit, or is it your average long? There are lots of ways to evaluate this, but you need the basic data. Let me know if you would like a simple log and worksheet to do this and I can post what i use.

 

Eiger

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
It helps to know whether you trade better to the long side or to the short side, or if there isn't much of a difference. Do you keep metrics on your trading? For example, What percentage of your shorts are winners vs what percentage of your longs. What about points or pips? Does your average short result in more profit, or is it your average long? There are lots of ways to evaluate this, but you need the basic data. Let me know if you would like a simple log and worksheet to do this and I can post what i use.

 

Eiger

 

Keeping a log is a good idea for these things. But whether you trade better on the short or long side, is often a result of the current cycle the market is in imo. For example, last year's parabolic rise pretty much screamed for the long side...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
... But whether you trade better on the short or long side, is often a result of the current cycle the market is in imo. For example, last year's parabolic rise pretty much screamed for the long side...

 

That's definately true over the short term. Longer term, though, the market cycles should even out and you will get a truer picture of your strength (long or short), if you have one.

 

Eiger

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Plunging (shorting) is far less stressful for me, as there is far more chance that there will be gaps down, than the typical steady climb up.

Sure, sometimes there can be gaps up if price is climbing quickly and for a reason such as after a news release or a sudden break above R, but not generally i don't think.

I feel justified in favouring longs over shorts. However, if i get 2 signals on 2 instruments on the same candle, one long & one short - trading only 1 at a time on the shorter timeframes, i don't automatically pick the short - i look to see which choice makes most sense in the context of the overall chart. If they look about even stevens, i'll go with the short.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

"In judging volume behavior, allowance must be made for the fact that declining markets normally are accompanied by lower volume than advancing markets except, perhaps, at times when active liquidation is taking place. The reason for this is that bull movements attract a much greater public following than bear movements." - Wyckoff quoted from here: http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/f131/determining-the-trend-of-the-market-3873.html

 

I'd like to quote jasont as well, from something he wrote in his blog:

"Another reason I think is that the market moves down a lot quicker than it moves up. I guess due to the speed of the selling it is harder for people to get on board in comparison to buying."

 

I'm bit surprised this thread hasn't got more attention, as I think it's an interesting topic to debate.

 

If the public can't short (because not every investment tool allows the man in the street to sell short), or does not want to (because he prefers to "buy and hold"), why do we assume that selling happens faster than buying?

 

Or is it perhaps not selling, but just liquidation of actual positions?

If the public can only go long, and participation is greater in upmoves, should we not expect those moves to happen quicker and be steeper?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Thanks for bringing my attention to this thread Firewalker.

 

Jocelyn said "Don't you find though that folks have a tendancy to embrace & overemphasize bad news more than they do good news?" The people that know I trade the markets often only ask me how my trading is going when we are declining and often only ask what to do when we are declining. Of course I never have the answers for them but they still seem to gain an irrational thought process when faced with the possible idea of loss. These are all mum and dad investors who would never short a market mind you.

 

I don't necessarily think people assume the market drops quicker than it rises but more so see that it does. I haven't done a full scale investigation to what I am about to say but the following is something I have loosely picked up on. When we turn down after a move up, we usually take maybe 2 or 3, 5 minute bars on the ES to change direction. However when we turn up after a move down, we often see 3-5 5 minute bars on the ES to change direction.

 

As I said this is not a fact based analysis but just something I have broadly noticed. It is probably also why I am better at long trades than short. In fact my statistics on winning long trades are twice as good as my short trades. It is a bit of a psychological reason, due to seeing the market drop quicker than it rises, I often get in too early because I am afraid of missing out on the move. However I believe the long moves take more time so I wait for more confirmation.

 

If you were to draw the markets as waves, the tops of the waves would have shaper turns than the bottoms which would be more broad based. I agree that this thread should have more attention. It is an interesting phenomenon.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

Or is it perhaps not selling, but just liquidation of actual positions?

If the public can only go long, and participation is greater in upmoves, should we not expect those moves to happen quicker and be steeper?

 

 

 

Interesting!

 

 

Maybe the fear of a drop is greater than the fear of a rise? But, it's institutional money that makes the market, so why do they stop competing so suddenly, and probably more importantly, what's the strategy/call for the resumption of the competing? What are the institutions up to?:question:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

In an article link provided by eggbeangame (http://www.zealllc.com/2008/spxdown.htm), the author states:

 

"While bears are much tougher trading environments than bulls, they can still be traded profitably by the prudent."

 

What do you think/experience? Is a bear market more difficult to trade than a bull? Is it because the average volatility usually is greater? Does it have an affect on your strategy for intraday trading?

 

There are many more experienced traders here than me, so let's hear those with the experience :)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Topics

  • Posts

    • Agreed since some of the new traders usually lose money in start and some loses more while chasing their lost money and eventually ends up blaming to their brokers part.
    • The crypto market are also in phase of maturing like the forex and other trading assets so we can do much more accurate analysis than before since early days it was purely a luck if the investments in crypto bears results because most of the coins or tokens never come to fruition. Some early birds were also able to make profits on these tokens or coins. e,g., like turtle coin starts with 1 satoshi and go up to 7 sathoshis, quite good rewards. another token lmgx now hovering at 10 started from 1, 
    • How's about other crypto exchanges? Are all they banned in your country or only Binance?
    • Be careful who you blame.   I can tell you one thing for sure.   Effective traders don’t blame others when things start to go wrong.   You can hang onto your tendency to play the victim, or the martyr… but if you want to achieve in trading, you have to be prepared to take responsibility.   People assign reasons to outcomes, whether based on internal or external factors.   When traders face losses, it's common for them to blame bad luck, poor advice, or other external factors, rather than reflecting on their own personal attributes like arrogance, fear, or greed.   This is a challenging lesson to grasp in your trading journey, but one that holds immense value.   This is called attribution theory. Taking responsibility for your actions is the key to improving your trading skills. Pause and ask yourself - What role did I play in my financial decisions?   After all, you were the one who listened to that source, and decided to act on that trade based on the rumour. Attributing results solely to external circumstances is what is known as having an ‘external locus of control’.   It's a concept coined by psychologist Julian Rotter in 1954. A trader with an external locus of control might say, "I made a profit because the markets are currently favourable."   Instead, strive to develop an "internal locus of control" and take ownership of your actions.   Assume that all trading results are within your realm of responsibility and actively seek ways to improve your own behaviour.   This is the fastest route to enhancing your trading abilities. A trader with an internal locus of control might proudly state, "My equity curve is rising because I am a disciplined trader who faithfully follows my trading plan." Author: Louise Bedford Source: https://www.tradinggame.com.au/
    • SELF IMPROVEMENT.   The whole self-help industry began when Dale Carnegie published How to Win Friends and Influence People in 1936. Then came other classics like Think And Grow Rich by Napoleon Hill, Awaken the Giant Within by Tony Robbins toward the end of the century.   Today, teaching people how to improve themselves is a business. A pure ruthless business where some people sell utter bullshit.   There are broke Instagrammers and YouTubers with literally no solid background teaching men how to be attractive to women, how to begin a start-up, how to become successful — most of these guys speaking nothing more than hollow motivational words and cliche stuff. They waste your time. Some of these people who present themselves as hugely successful also give talks and write books.   There are so many books on financial advice, self-improvement, love, etc and some people actually try to read them. They are a waste of time, mostly.   When you start reading a dozen books on finance you realize that they all say the same stuff.   You are not going to live forever in the learning phase. Don't procrastinate by reading bull-shit or the same good knowledge in 10 books. What we ought to do is choose wisely.   Yes. A good book can change your life, given you do what it asks you to do.   All the books I have named up to now are worthy of reading. Tim Ferriss, Simon Sinek, Robert Greene — these guys are worthy of reading. These guys teach what others don't. Their books are unique and actually, come from relevant and successful people.   When Richard Branson writes a book about entrepreneurship, go read it. Every line in that book is said by one of the greatest entrepreneurs of our time.   When a Chinese millionaire( he claims to be) Youtuber who releases a video titled “Why reading books keeps you broke” and a year later another one “My recommendation of books for grand success” you should be wise to tell him to jump from Victoria Falls.   These self-improvement gurus sell you delusions.   They say they have those little tricks that only they know that if you use, everything in your life will be perfect. Those little tricks. We are just “making of a to-do-list before sleeping” away from becoming the next Bill Gates.   There are no little tricks.   There is no success-mantra.   Self-improvement is a trap for 99% of the people. You can't do that unless you are very, very strong.   If you are looking for easy ways, you will only keep wasting your time forgetting that your time on this planet is limited, as alive humans that is.   Also, I feel that people who claim to read like a book a day or promote it are idiots. You retain nothing. When you do read a good book, you read slow, sometimes a whole paragraph, again and again, dwelling on it, trying to internalize its knowledge. You try to understand. You think. It takes time.   It's better to read a good book 10 times than 1000 stupid ones.   So be choosy. Read from the guys who actually know something, not some wannabe ‘influencers’.   Edit: Think And Grow Rich was written as a result of a project assigned to Napoleon Hill by Andrew Carnegie(the 2nd richest man in recent history). He was asked to study the most successful people on the planet and document which characteristics made them great. He did extensive work in studying hundreds of the most successful people of that time. The result was that little book.   Nowadays some people just study Instagram algorithms and think of themselves as a Dale Carnegie or Anthony Robbins. By Nupur Nishant, Quora Profits from free accurate cryptos signals: https://www.predictmag.com/    
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.