Trade Discussion and Analysis

[wasp 10]

Yep. But the 4-hour gave a good signal, which you appear to have rode higher.

 

EDIT: Or was it the trend lines that prompted you to go long?

 

Yes well.... the reversal took place after a fake drop and whilst the 4hr now says short, the trendline additions have been vital to enrich and increase previous periods thricefold on average and thus, a singular rejection of the 4 hour S/R is not enough. I took an equal position on USDNOK based on exactly this previous expectation and that has failed for the exact same reasons.

 

To trade purely off the one signal and assuming support will equal resistance at every turn is not enough and despite this being in a current downtrend, what good is it if when the market trades sideways or any other condition. A discipline based on only market condition is not enough as as soon as the conditions change, you are ruined.

 

The dual combination is vital and only the rejection of S/R and the trendline coupled with the crossover of said lines put me in this long position and only will both of those happening again, change my mind on direction.

[myrtleturtle 10]

cowpip: I notice your stop-losses on GJ seem to be around the 60-pip mark.

how do you decide the size of stop-loss? is it derived from ATR? or swing-high/lows?

thanks

 

PS: good stuff posting your trades, esp as you seem to be trading around the clock, judging by tour late-night and very early morning posts.

[cowpip 10]

cowpip: I notice your stop-losses on GJ seem to be around the 60-pip mark.

how do you decide the size of stop-loss? is it derived from ATR? or swing-high/lows?

thanks

 

You should really be asking Wasp, as I'm just mimicking his strat the best I can.

 

Wasp found (and I agree) that 60ish stop-losses generally keep your stop safe, unless you have the direction all wrong. It has nothing to do with atr, although I personally like to get my stop above swing highs/lows, if I can. And if I can get it above the swing highs/lows and above the next SR, even better.

 

Yeah, I trade 24/5 now... just wake up for 5 or so mins every 4 hours. It pays dividends, if you have the luxury of sleeping a little more when you need it (and don't have to go to a j.o.b.).

[wasp 10]

Merely a statistical edge/amount reached through tried, measured and tested analysis of my entry criteria, and P:L thereafter once tested at variables for size, leverage, movement, 24hr trading and economic releases.

[myrtleturtle 10]

Closed at 192.85 for +50 (woohoo!) :hmpf:

 

Short at 195.82

 

either thats a misprint or you got one hell of a deal there, wasp. whos your broker?

[wasp 10]

either thats a misprint or you got one hell of a deal there, wasp. whos your broker?

 

 

Yeah, yeah, slight misprint! :rofl:

 

My broker btw is http://www.capitalforexpro.com/about.php

[wasp 10]

But seriously....... I don't want much... Just S to return to R then maybe break and the next to become S and break up through both to a previous S turned R etc, so on and so forth.... All neatly packaged with trendlines to stop me taking reversals I shouldn't but not turning to quick so I miss out...

 

Just that, each for +100 a time and it can trend up, down or backwards for all I care as long as the above works!

 

There...... like that.... S to R to S to R with trendline confirmation.......

 

IT can do it occasionally!

[cowpip 10]

There...... like that.... S to R to S to R with trendline confirmation.......

 

IT can do it occasionally!

 

Beautiful Wasp... wish I would have been thinking straight. Grrr...

[cowpip 10]

Well Firewalker... I tip my hat to you. Looks like you may be right about this 190 area after all.

[firewalker 10]

Well Firewalker... I tip my hat to you. Looks like you may be right about this 190 area after all.

 

Not bad for someone who's not really trading that instrument eh :groove:

 

Is that 190 exactly?? :shocked:

 

[wasp 10]

Don't encourage him cowpip!

[firewalker 10]

Don't encourage him cowpip!

 

What can I say? Perhaps I should be trading this instrument and see if I can get more pips than you :haha:

[wasp 10]

What can I say? Perhaps I should be trading this instrument and see if I can get more pips than you :haha:

 

So err, how was your ROI for the months of July and August?

[firewalker 10]

So err, how was your ROI for the months of July and August?

 

shut up alright :security:

[wasp 10]

messing up my thread here too! Might have to go scribble on your visitor messages wall again!

[firewalker 10]

keep you going...........

 

Reverse or stay.........?

 

Here's my view:

[wasp 10]

All three are imminent, ie, 1 candle away from reversing or continuing......

 

You are already in them all. What are you doing?

 

Exit and wait, stay in and see, reverse now?

[cowpip 10]

So the big question now is, is THIS the reversal we've all been waiting for on GJ?

 

Yeah, I know it's unanswerable. But if it doesn't reverse here, it may be some time before we see the likes of 197 again.

[wasp 10]

So the big question now is, is THIS the reversal we've all been waiting for on GJ?

 

Yeah, I know it's unanswerable. But if it doesn't reverse here, it may be some time before we see the likes of 197 again.

 

Concentrate on the day to day and be ready for anything and that possible reversal. I will continue as is (bounce to S to R to S etc...) and not worry about the big reversal, its not relevant to day/swing traders imo.

[cowpip 10]

Hmm... ok. I like that reasoning.

[cowpip 10]

Closed it for +260 to add to my +240 already and I am done, pre NFP (Not a big fan of NFP) and its been a stressful, annoying week so I am outta here.......

 

Have a good one all.......

 

Congrats Wasp. That last one pulled you through nicely. I'm ticked I missed it, but oh well... there's more fish in the sea.

[firewalker 10]

This thread is to remove the risk/temptation to over trade through boredom...

 

It will be various charts from various markets for analysis (per Barjons WOT threads) so when you have itchy fingers, analyse and predict these instead!

 

Starting it off, we have 3 FX charts...

 

Firewalker believes reversals only happen at S/R whereas I know FX is a bitch and it can happen when you least expect it so, a simple 1=, 2=, 3= and answer stay in or reversal....

 

All can play and we'll jump around from FX to Indices to stocks etc, with volume and without..

 

Don't get me wrong... I think reversals that happen 'out of the blue' have less chance of being a 'true' reversal.

 

Knowing when a news release comes out is important when analysing these charts. I mean, if for some reason we see a huge bar on very wide spread that, for no apparent reason and not around an S/R level, suddenly makes a U-turn, then I would suspect this happens because of an economic release.

[firewalker 10]

All three are imminent, ie, 1 candle away from reversing or continuing......

 

You are already in them all. What are you doing?

 

Exit and wait, stay in and see, reverse now?

 

I see you started a new thread, so I think it's best I reply over there...

don't want to disrupt the flow of your losing trades in this thread

[wasp 10]

So....... Each chart is 1 candle from either reversing or continuing and you said to me, major reversals only happen at S/R........

 

Come on... which way for each?!

[firewalker 10]

Not bad for someone who's not really trading that instrument eh :groove:

 

Is that 190 exactly?? :shocked:

 

 

well we are still dropping further!

but it was worth a 100 pips...