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By HFblogNews · Posted
Date: 15th May 2024. Market News – Treasuries rallied, NASDAQ at new high, DXY lower after PPI pop. Trading Leveraged Products is risky Economic Indicators & Central Banks: *JGB yields slipped, as markets paused amid a recent bond sell-off, awaiting a crucial US inflation report expected to influence the Fed’s short-term interest rate decisions. Remember, that typically yields move inversely to bond prices. *US: Stronger than expected prints on PPI did not have the textbook effects on the markets. Interestingly, Treasuries and Wall Street rallied, while the US Dollar slipped. The guts of the report were not as worrisome as the headlines suggested, and the CPI is viewed as more important. *Global equities are set for a fresh record after a big tech-led rally in US gauges. Financial Markets Performance: *The USDIndex slumped to 104.7, EURUSD rose to 1.0830 and USDJPY drifted at the EU open below 156. *Gold rose almost 1% to $2358.12 per ounce, while USOIL advanced to $78.18 after shrank US stockpiles, and as traders looked ahead to a report from the International Energy Agency that’ll shed light on market balances into the second half. *Copper spiked to a fresh record high at $5.12 a pound after a squeeze partly due to traders playing the arbitrage between futures on Comex and the Shanghai Futures Exchange. Market Trends: *Big tech climbed, however, boosting the NASDAQ 0.75% to a new all-time high of 16,511. The S&P500 rose 0.48% to 5246. The Dow advanced 0.3%. *Sony shares jumped by 12% after strong earnings, a stock split and a share buyback of ¥250bn ($1.6bn). *Tesla gained 3.3%. Tencent Holdings surged after the company’s revenue beat estimates , while Alibaba Group Holding Ltd.’s slid on a profit plunge, highlighting the growing divergence between China’s twin Internet powerhouses. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. -
Recessions are weird. The more you think about them, the weirder they become. Yes, the economy is cyclical. Downturns aren’t just inevitable, they’re healthy. BUT Economic cycles, including recessions, are not just determined by clean and predictable financial indicators but also by psychological and sociological factors. Collective mood, media reporting, and public sentiment play a substantial role in shaping economic realities. And they can be manipulated. A.] The Fear Factory Every time the media starts shouting "recession," what happens? Panic. Fear. It's like Halloween but for adults. And this fear isn't just innocent fun – it moves markets, influences decisions, and causes real harm. Give me an example of when the media saw a chance to scare the crap out of you and didn’t take it? I’ll wait. B.] Recessions are Relative Consider this – what's called a recession in one country is a day in paradise in another. Economic conditions are relative. If the standards are so skewed, can we really trust this whole concept? C.] The Recession Whisperers Imagine a secretive group, not in some government bunker, but in a quiet office in Cambridge, Massachusetts. That's the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), the recession referee. But here's the twist: By the time the NBER declares a recession, it's like announcing rain when you're already soaked. Their method involves a retroactive look, meaning they wait for six months of data, plus a one-month lag. So, when they finally declare a recession, it's old news, a story you've been living in, not just reading about. In the world of economic predictions, the official-unofficial referees are not the early birds; they're the historians. Also… D.]The GDP Puppet Show GDP. It’s supposed to be a “health check” for the economy. BUT It's like going to a doctor who only measures your height and ignores your blood pressure, cholesterol, and heart rate. It counts every dollar spent, regardless of what it's spent on. That means disasters, wars, and environmental destruction all pump up the GDP. If a hurricane hits and we spend billions on reconstruction, guess what? GDP goes up. Celebrating a GDP increase is like throwing a party because your house burned down and you had to rebuild it. It’s also the main indicator the NBER uses to measure a recession. The real problem with this is… GDP is a broad measure and can be influenced by short-term fluctuations that don't necessarily reflect long-term economic trends. It’s a useful indicator, but far from comprehensive. E.] The Self-Fulfilling Prophecy Here's the kicker – by declaring a recession, we make them more likely. It's a classic self-fulfilling prophecy. Businesses pull back on investment, consumers close their wallets, and just like that, the economy slows down. But what if we didn't buy into the narrative? I have no idea. F.] Rage Against Determinism Economies aren’t deterministic. They’re dynamic. Economies don’t follow a predetermined path. Human agency and perception play a significant role in shaping economic realities. Predictions are usually wrong for this reason. Also, there’s this… G.] The Hidden Agenda Tin foil hat time. Think about who benefits from recession talk. The media gets a juicy story. Politicians get a scapegoat. Certain investors get to buy low. It’s a game, and the average person isn't the one winning. You’re always being sold a narrative that serves others, not you. And Yet, a Recession is HERE Of course, recessions exist. Because prolonged downturns exist. But all of this calls into question what we think we know about the word “recession” and how we talk about it. It’s not as clear a concept as we think. Nevertheless, it’s probably here already.” – Chris Campbell (AltucherConfidential) -
By Stocks4life · Posted
QCOM Qualcomm stock great breakout follow through, https://stockconsultant.com/?QCOM -
By Stocks4life · Posted
JPM JPMorgan Chase stock breakout, https://stockconsultant.com/?JPM -
By Stocks4life · Posted
ALLY Financial stock breakout, good volume. from Stocks To Watch, https://stockconsultant.com/?ALLY
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