Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

Recommended Posts

I was watching the Benny Hill show and there was this skit which I found both funny but made me think. There was a man (Benny) who was standing in front of a plain brick wall and looking up. He just kept on standing there. A man walks by and sees Benny standing in front of the wall and wonders whats going on so he stands next to Benny and starts looking up as well. Another person comes, then another, and another and soon there is a small crowd of people all looking up at this plain brick wall. Benny then steps back and walks away while everyone keeps on staring up at this brick wall. The catch is that the whole time he had a neck brace on which wasn't initially visible cause of his coat so he was forced to keep on looking up.

 

Point being: group mentality and mass delusions do exist.

 

My question for the doc then in terms of trading: What is the best way to spot the sheep during your trading day and what makes people instinctively act like sheep when they trade?

 

On Jame's videos he often reades the tape which I'm slowly trying to learn because it seems to give information as to where moves begin and end. Is there a way you can train yourself to learn who is actually being proactive and who is being reactive?

If you can spot the real proactive movers from the rest and move as they do or even learn to anticipate their moves this would give you a great edge against the 95% of followers who cough up their hard earned.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This is a very interesting observation and question. The problem with electronic trading as opposed to trading on floor is that we cannot see the emotions and crowd mentality taking place like a floor trader would looking at the pit with people hollering and screaming and expressions in their eyes. Tape reading is difficult in this manner due to lack of these cues. The only cue is the price being broken and by how much and by how many contracts at that price. This is why trading is so difficult, putting together a puzzle that have missing pieces.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Great question! In trading and life, there is what is called the herding instinct or herding bias. You see if when momentum traders jump all over something because it is moving ( usually up, but also down if they are nible with shorting). For fundamental people, it is this herding which contributes to what might best be described as irrational valuations ( which one way or the other get back to mean reversion once the people wake up and realize what has been going on). One way to look for herding is to watch stocks with high volume premarket and see how they behave on any pullbacks. What momentum traders look for is a gap up on volume and then a pullback on lower volume ( to get long). With futures trading, you can sometimes tell with market depth and time and sales. It is not easy, and the programs are getting more and more sophisticated and tricky so this is an ongoing issue. One thing that is happening to bond traders is not so much fun. Many of them have left the floor now ( there are very few bond traders in open outcry) and gone to electronic trading. They are getting slammed by the programs which come in and "trap" them so they are stuck in a position with no way out, sometimes for an entire day ( when previously they were able to scalp in and out very quickly). There is much frustration in bond land because of this, and many bond traders have found their incomes cut in half or by a third. Some of them are using their core competencies to move into oil or ags. The majority of them are still trying to figure out how to beat the algorithmic programs. As program trading increases, it is going to be more difficult for the little guy to scalp and there is going to be a lot more "deception." For example, there is a program operating on the CAC 40 called Predator which fires thousands of orders into the CAC every day, most of which are not executed. The same thing is happening on ES, I believe.

This is the tip of a very deep iceberg. I would love to hear from others on this board about your experience with either herding or ( ugh!) being herded!

 

Thanks

 

Janice

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I typed my response very quickly and made a number of typos! So- I am posting it again. Apologies. Janice

 

Great question! In trading and life, there is what is called the herding instinct or herding bias. You see it when momentum traders jump all over something because it is moving ( usually up, but also down if they are nimble with shorting). For fundamental people, it is this herding which contributes to what might best be described as irrational valuations ( which one way or the other get back to mean reversion once the people wake up and realize what has been going on). One way to look for herding is to watch stocks with high volume premarket and see how they behave on any pullbacks. What momentum traders look for is a gap up on volume and then a pullback on lower volume ( to get long). With futures trading, you can sometimes tell with market depth and time and sales. It is not easy, and the programs are getting more and more sophisticated and tricky so this is an ongoing issue. One thing that is happening to bond traders is not so much fun. Many of them have left the floor now ( there are very few bond traders in open outcry) and gone to electronic trading. They are getting slammed by the programs which come in and "trap" them so they are stuck in a position with no way out, sometimes for an entire day ( when previously they were able to scalp in and out very quickly). There is much frustration in bond land because of this, and many bond traders have found their incomes cut in half or by a third. Some of them are using their core competencies to move into oil or ags. The majority of them are still trying to figure out how to beat the algorithmic programs. As program trading increases, it is going to be more difficult for the little guy to scalp and there is going to be a lot more "deception." For example, there is a program operating on the CAC 40 called Predator which fires thousands of orders into the CAC every day, most of which are not executed. The same thing is happening on ES, I believe.

This is the tip of a very deep iceberg. I would love to hear from others on this board about your experience with either herding or ( ugh!) being herded!

 

Thanks

 

Janice

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

That's great insight, doc! Interesting how changing the style of trading affect other people as the markets and technologies change, the inevitable. It may be that more programs create less herd instincts? Or are there still emotional people behind these programs plug and unplug whenever they "feel" it?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

People program the programs. It becomes less and less emotional when the machines are programmed to trade on "their own." From what I understand there are still human beings who trade the programs, so there might be less emotion involved. Eventually, I think machines will be trading machines and machines will be programming themselves. We're not there yet, but look at what Kurzweil is going with FatKat.

 

Janice

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Topics

  • Posts

    • Be careful who you blame.   I can tell you one thing for sure.   Effective traders don’t blame others when things start to go wrong.   You can hang onto your tendency to play the victim, or the martyr… but if you want to achieve in trading, you have to be prepared to take responsibility.   People assign reasons to outcomes, whether based on internal or external factors.   When traders face losses, it's common for them to blame bad luck, poor advice, or other external factors, rather than reflecting on their own personal attributes like arrogance, fear, or greed.   This is a challenging lesson to grasp in your trading journey, but one that holds immense value.   This is called attribution theory. Taking responsibility for your actions is the key to improving your trading skills. Pause and ask yourself - What role did I play in my financial decisions?   After all, you were the one who listened to that source, and decided to act on that trade based on the rumour. Attributing results solely to external circumstances is what is known as having an ‘external locus of control’.   It's a concept coined by psychologist Julian Rotter in 1954. A trader with an external locus of control might say, "I made a profit because the markets are currently favourable."   Instead, strive to develop an "internal locus of control" and take ownership of your actions.   Assume that all trading results are within your realm of responsibility and actively seek ways to improve your own behaviour.   This is the fastest route to enhancing your trading abilities. A trader with an internal locus of control might proudly state, "My equity curve is rising because I am a disciplined trader who faithfully follows my trading plan." Author: Louise Bedford Source: https://www.tradinggame.com.au/
    • SELF IMPROVEMENT.   The whole self-help industry began when Dale Carnegie published How to Win Friends and Influence People in 1936. Then came other classics like Think And Grow Rich by Napoleon Hill, Awaken the Giant Within by Tony Robbins toward the end of the century.   Today, teaching people how to improve themselves is a business. A pure ruthless business where some people sell utter bullshit.   There are broke Instagrammers and YouTubers with literally no solid background teaching men how to be attractive to women, how to begin a start-up, how to become successful — most of these guys speaking nothing more than hollow motivational words and cliche stuff. They waste your time. Some of these people who present themselves as hugely successful also give talks and write books.   There are so many books on financial advice, self-improvement, love, etc and some people actually try to read them. They are a waste of time, mostly.   When you start reading a dozen books on finance you realize that they all say the same stuff.   You are not going to live forever in the learning phase. Don't procrastinate by reading bull-shit or the same good knowledge in 10 books. What we ought to do is choose wisely.   Yes. A good book can change your life, given you do what it asks you to do.   All the books I have named up to now are worthy of reading. Tim Ferriss, Simon Sinek, Robert Greene — these guys are worthy of reading. These guys teach what others don't. Their books are unique and actually, come from relevant and successful people.   When Richard Branson writes a book about entrepreneurship, go read it. Every line in that book is said by one of the greatest entrepreneurs of our time.   When a Chinese millionaire( he claims to be) Youtuber who releases a video titled “Why reading books keeps you broke” and a year later another one “My recommendation of books for grand success” you should be wise to tell him to jump from Victoria Falls.   These self-improvement gurus sell you delusions.   They say they have those little tricks that only they know that if you use, everything in your life will be perfect. Those little tricks. We are just “making of a to-do-list before sleeping” away from becoming the next Bill Gates.   There are no little tricks.   There is no success-mantra.   Self-improvement is a trap for 99% of the people. You can't do that unless you are very, very strong.   If you are looking for easy ways, you will only keep wasting your time forgetting that your time on this planet is limited, as alive humans that is.   Also, I feel that people who claim to read like a book a day or promote it are idiots. You retain nothing. When you do read a good book, you read slow, sometimes a whole paragraph, again and again, dwelling on it, trying to internalize its knowledge. You try to understand. You think. It takes time.   It's better to read a good book 10 times than 1000 stupid ones.   So be choosy. Read from the guys who actually know something, not some wannabe ‘influencers’.   Edit: Think And Grow Rich was written as a result of a project assigned to Napoleon Hill by Andrew Carnegie(the 2nd richest man in recent history). He was asked to study the most successful people on the planet and document which characteristics made them great. He did extensive work in studying hundreds of the most successful people of that time. The result was that little book.   Nowadays some people just study Instagram algorithms and think of themselves as a Dale Carnegie or Anthony Robbins. By Nupur Nishant, Quora Profits from free accurate cryptos signals: https://www.predictmag.com/    
    • there is no avoiding loses to be honest, its just how the market is. you win some and hopefully more, but u do lose some. 
    • $CSCO Cisco Systems stock, nice top of range breakout, from Stocks to Watch at https://stockconsultant.com/?CSCOSEPN Septerna stock watch for a bottom breakout, good upside price gap
    • $CSCO Cisco Systems stock, nice top of range breakout, from Stocks to Watch at https://stockconsultant.com/?CSCOSEPN Septerna stock watch for a bottom breakout, good upside price gap
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.