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Brian's investment record

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5b3d220b8e87d_BrianPortfoliorecord2018-07-0415-20-27.thumb.png.a525913840d1611262037fb5ed8ee4e4.png3 samples from record:

AXP First acquired 1 or 2 years ago, for about $ 77.74. A Warren Buffet favorite, with good financials. Sold June 29 2018 after putting a sellstop order on it, an idea from day trading, and Wyckoff, which I learned about on this forum.  Profit $ 1822.97, cost of $ 6770.5 or 26.92%

CNK- a questionable acquisition, made after selling WFM, just prior to the Amazon announcement ( doink!), which announcement jacked the price to $ 42. Profits were to be had, but, riding the escalator, as it were, I simply watched it go up and down.  " But theatre attendance is increasing!"  Good luck with that one.

https://www.the-numbers.com/market/

XHE  healthcare etf, health equipment, I don't know when I originally purchased this, but mI just sold it, again after hitting a sells top, for a $ 3,149.45 profit, or 50.32%

All non taxable since this is an IRA account.

I am now siting in 90% cash waiting out d.t. Rump hysterics and phony trade wars; using simulators to see how it might go with " active " trading", where I wake up enough to smell the roses when a stock gets to a high point.  While I feel fortunate to have a gain, it took a long time and a lot of heartache, watching values tumble and dip, especially UNP and AXP. I left a lot of profit on the table. I am reading Wyckoff now, and dB, trying to learn and follow these ideas.

 

Brian

 

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Using the Investopedia Simulator starting on July 5, with a playful $ 220, 722.40 invested, which includes $ 29.95 brokers fees, I think. I bought into 9 stocks, 8 of which were winners, only AMAT dissappointed me, likely my fault for setting the sell stop too high. I took a $ 149 loss there, no biggy, and I also made the mistake of putting a trailing stop on FOXF, which is kind of soaring last 2-3 days, not so much today, but I did get out of that with a $ 510 gain.

With all that in mind, I now have a  realized and paper gain, excluding broker fees, and taxes, of course, of about $ 4,064.92. ( 1.84%)  Now the market has been on a huge upswing the last few days, which certainly makes  this easy. With my stops in place, my theoretical worst case scenario, with exclusions as above, is  a paltry      $ 1897.21,  ( 0.86% ) if all my stops get hit tomorrow. That is 3 days trading, with a fantastic starting level ( cost basis). In real world terms right now, my worst case gain would be about  $ 963 , from a  $ 112K cost basis, much of which is not even taxable.

I set my stops with an analysis of low points from last months' most recent low ( the start of the current trend), reactions and retractions, as per Wyckoff and DB. I did the same to set my entry points as  well, although Investopedia threw me into the market, as all my initial purchases were more than I had bargained for. So I need to study that and work on making better entry points.

As for Brokers, right now I use Ally, they seem to be pretty good, I have no issues with them, except  they seem to have Short Sales allowed as only Day Only, no good till canceled short sales. I need to investigate this more,and see  what other brokers offer for short sales.  With Investopedia Simulator, my short sales are good till canceled, and neither of them has come in yet.

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2 stocks hit the sell  stop today, so I have realized gains now of $ 604.47 just today, and  a total portfolio theoretical  return of $ 4,175.07. 4 straight days of S&P 500 rising, I expect less tomorrow. In any case, I am quite happy with such a gain after only 4 days.  I put all my stops up at todays lows, just about, expecting to get at least three more realized gains. These gain estimates exclude taxes and broker fees.

Gee, I kind of wish I was really trading this, in which case I would have about $ 2,116 on  a 112K cost basis.

:cool:

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Day 5 simulated trading, I have realized gain of $ 2,569.51, with 2 more stocks still in play. At my broker, Ally, that would cost about $9 per buy/sell trade, so about $63 in brokers fees, and less 20% for taxes, that works out to about $ 1,992.61. Not so bad for 5 days of trading, but I really don't know how that compares to anyone else.

That is a gain of 0.9 %, net of costs. I have two stocks left, AXP and ATR, and I have my stops placed aggressively up at the days low point. I expect to sell them both tomorrow. Next one I do will be with a realistic amount of money to play with, not this fantastic $ 220,000.

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Spoiler Alert! Long term  Buy/ Hold

Rebalancing today at Month end, as per Ric Edelman https://www.edelmanfinancial.com/

 

I am selling winners and buying losers.  Selling CVS and VNQ, an REIT, for a gain of  $ 300.96 and  $ 420, respectively. I am only selling enough to "rebalance" the portfolio.

  I am buying KFYP and SASR. KF has the misfortune right now to be a basically chinese Intl etf,  suffering now with the " Dumpy One" flinging his ill thought out tariffs at.  My feeling is that won't last forever, and there are other places for these companies to  do business than the US.  I am also buying  SASR, which had the misfortune of missing eps expectations last quarter, although they still posted an increase in YoY earnings per share.

My advice to day traders is " Stop chomping at the bit". You  are likely losing money jumping in and out of the market all the time.

I suppose one critical caveat has to be: the loser you buy, has to be a decent security, we are not talking about stinking piles of dead fish here.  Those get shoveled out wholesale.

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  • Topics

  • Posts

    • Date : 24th January 2019.

      MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 24th January 2019.



      FX News Today 10-year Bund yields are down -0.6 bp at 0.216% in opening trade. Treasury yields also fell back from overnight highs and are now down -0.2 bp at 2.739%, while JGB yields remain up 0.8 bp at 0.001%. Stock markets mostly managed to move higher in Asia overnight (excluding the Nikkei which closed with a loss of 0.09%) and DAX futures are also up, while US futures are narrowly mixed and the FTSE 100 future is swinging between gains and losses. Brexit developments remain in focus, but while in the UK officials continue to struggle to find a consensus on the way forward, the focus in the Eurozone turns to the ECB meeting today. Rates are widely expected to remain on hold and the guidance little changed, but Draghi is likely to sound much more cautious on the growth and inflation outlook, which should underpin stock markets. Norges Bank is also expected to hold rates steady and the data calendar focuses on Eurozone PMI readings, which are expected to show further weakness in the preliminary release for January. US earnings reports have helped to underpin risk appetite in recent days, while the ongoing government shutdown is preventing timely data releases and leaving investors focused on trade talk developments, company news and in Europe, Brexit jitters. Charts of the Day

      Main Macro Events Today EU Services, Manufacturing, and Composite PMI – The Services PMI is expected to come out at 51.5 in January, compared to 51.2 in December. This is expected to have a positive impact on the Composite PMI, which is expected to rise to 51.4 compared to 51.1 in December. The Manufacturing PMI is expected to have remained at the same levels as in December. World Economic Forum at Davos – The third day of the WEF annual meetings held in Davos and attended by officials from over 90 countries. Comments from central bankers and other influential officials can create significant market volatility. ECB Interest Rate Decision – ECB is not expected to proceed with any changes in the interest rate yet as it is has just started evaluating the effects from the end of QE in December. However, communication could provide important information regarding the future path of policy. US Jobless Claims – Initial Jobless Claims are expected to rise to 220k compared to 213k last week, while Continuing Jobless Claims are expected to decline slightly to 1.735M, compared to 1.737M last week. US Services, Manufacturing, and Composite PMI – Reductions in PMIs are expected in all sectors, in conjunction with the overall perception of a slowdown in the US, and the ongoing government shutdown. Support and Resistance Levels
       

      Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

      Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

      Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

      Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

      Click HERE to READ more Market news.

      Dr Nektarios Michail
      Market Analyst
      HotForex

      Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • Actions for the 23rd.  Hugely frustrating day, picked my spots but my timing was off.  I don't seem able to find a trade that will survive long enough for me to manage and test my patience, that in itself is testing me right now.
    • Actions for the 22nd.  I seem to be on a bad run, I'm really struggling with the opening minutes of the trades I'm taking and then get sucked into a little over trading.
    •   Date : 23rd January 2019.

      MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 23rd January 2019.



      FX News Today 10-year Treasury yields are down from overnight highs, but still up 0.7 bp at 2.746%, and 10-year JGB yields climbed 0.8 bp to -0.004%. Stock markets remained cautious during the Asian session. The Bank of Japan held policy steady, as expected, while further reducing its outlook for inflation. The resulting weakness in the Yen didn’t help stock markets and Topix and Nikkei dropped -0.60% and -0.14% respectively. The Hang Seng is also down -0.04%, despite mainland China markets initially moving higher as China’s central bank pumped liquidity into the banking system once again. Still, the measures are also a sign that officials are nervous about the slowdown in the economy and CSI 300 and Shanghai Comp are down -0.24% and -0.13%. The bank offered around 258 bln Yuan (USD 38 bln) to banks through its medium term lending tool. Markets continue to question the progress in the US-Sino trade talks, even though White House adviser Lawrence Kudlow said that the trade talks are still on and the story about cancelled preparatory meetings was “not true, there was never any meeting. We are moving toward negotiations.” The negotiations next week will be “very, very important” and “determinative”. Meanwhile, there are the first signs of a possible way out of the US government shutdown. Markets remain easily spooked, but appear to have already priced in a lot of risk last year and US stock futures are moving higher after yesterday’s sell off. Oil prices are trading at USD 53.27 per barrel. Charts of the Day

      Main Macro Events Today Canadian Retail Sales – After Wholesale Sales plummeted yesterday, Canadian Retail Sales are expected to have also declined by 0.4% m/m, with core Retail Sales (ex autos) expected to have declined by 0.6%. World Economic Forum at Davos –The second day of the WEF annual meetings held in Davos and attended by officials from over 90 countries. Comments from central bankers and other influential officials can create significant market volatility. Richmond Manufacturing Index – Expectations – The index is expected to have remained at a sub-zero level, standing at -2 after the -8 in the December release. Support and Resistance Levels
       

      Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

      Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

      Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

      Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

      Click HERE to READ more Market news.

      Dr Nektarios Michail
      Market Analyst
      HotForex

      Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • USDJPY Eyes The 109.88 Resistance Zone And Beyond USDJPY eyes the 109.88 resistance zone beyond as it looks to resume its upside pressure. On the upside, resistance comes in at 110.00 level. A turn above here will turn attention to the 110.50 level. Further out, we expect a possible move towards the 111.00 level if the earlier resistance is invalidated out. The next resistance resides at the 111.50. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing higher suggesting further strength. On the downside, support comes in at the 109.50 level where a break will target the 109.00 level. Below that level will turn focus to the 108.50 level and then lower the 108.00 level. On the whole, USDJPY faces further upside pressure on corrective recovery.  
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