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Brian's investment record

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5b3d220b8e87d_BrianPortfoliorecord2018-07-0415-20-27.thumb.png.a525913840d1611262037fb5ed8ee4e4.png3 samples from record:

AXP First acquired 1 or 2 years ago, for about $ 77.74. A Warren Buffet favorite, with good financials. Sold June 29 2018 after putting a sellstop order on it, an idea from day trading, and Wyckoff, which I learned about on this forum.  Profit $ 1822.97, cost of $ 6770.5 or 26.92%

CNK- a questionable acquisition, made after selling WFM, just prior to the Amazon announcement ( doink!), which announcement jacked the price to $ 42. Profits were to be had, but, riding the escalator, as it were, I simply watched it go up and down.  " But theatre attendance is increasing!"  Good luck with that one.

https://www.the-numbers.com/market/

XHE  healthcare etf, health equipment, I don't know when I originally purchased this, but mI just sold it, again after hitting a sells top, for a $ 3,149.45 profit, or 50.32%

All non taxable since this is an IRA account.

I am now siting in 90% cash waiting out d.t. Rump hysterics and phony trade wars; using simulators to see how it might go with " active " trading", where I wake up enough to smell the roses when a stock gets to a high point.  While I feel fortunate to have a gain, it took a long time and a lot of heartache, watching values tumble and dip, especially UNP and AXP. I left a lot of profit on the table. I am reading Wyckoff now, and dB, trying to learn and follow these ideas.

 

Brian

 

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Using the Investopedia Simulator starting on July 5, with a playful $ 220, 722.40 invested, which includes $ 29.95 brokers fees, I think. I bought into 9 stocks, 8 of which were winners, only AMAT dissappointed me, likely my fault for setting the sell stop too high. I took a $ 149 loss there, no biggy, and I also made the mistake of putting a trailing stop on FOXF, which is kind of soaring last 2-3 days, not so much today, but I did get out of that with a $ 510 gain.

With all that in mind, I now have a  realized and paper gain, excluding broker fees, and taxes, of course, of about $ 4,064.92. ( 1.84%)  Now the market has been on a huge upswing the last few days, which certainly makes  this easy. With my stops in place, my theoretical worst case scenario, with exclusions as above, is  a paltry      $ 1897.21,  ( 0.86% ) if all my stops get hit tomorrow. That is 3 days trading, with a fantastic starting level ( cost basis). In real world terms right now, my worst case gain would be about  $ 963 , from a  $ 112K cost basis, much of which is not even taxable.

I set my stops with an analysis of low points from last months' most recent low ( the start of the current trend), reactions and retractions, as per Wyckoff and DB. I did the same to set my entry points as  well, although Investopedia threw me into the market, as all my initial purchases were more than I had bargained for. So I need to study that and work on making better entry points.

As for Brokers, right now I use Ally, they seem to be pretty good, I have no issues with them, except  they seem to have Short Sales allowed as only Day Only, no good till canceled short sales. I need to investigate this more,and see  what other brokers offer for short sales.  With Investopedia Simulator, my short sales are good till canceled, and neither of them has come in yet.

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2 stocks hit the sell  stop today, so I have realized gains now of $ 604.47 just today, and  a total portfolio theoretical  return of $ 4,175.07. 4 straight days of S&P 500 rising, I expect less tomorrow. In any case, I am quite happy with such a gain after only 4 days.  I put all my stops up at todays lows, just about, expecting to get at least three more realized gains. These gain estimates exclude taxes and broker fees.

Gee, I kind of wish I was really trading this, in which case I would have about $ 2,116 on  a 112K cost basis.

:cool:

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Day 5 simulated trading, I have realized gain of $ 2,569.51, with 2 more stocks still in play. At my broker, Ally, that would cost about $9 per buy/sell trade, so about $63 in brokers fees, and less 20% for taxes, that works out to about $ 1,992.61. Not so bad for 5 days of trading, but I really don't know how that compares to anyone else.

That is a gain of 0.9 %, net of costs. I have two stocks left, AXP and ATR, and I have my stops placed aggressively up at the days low point. I expect to sell them both tomorrow. Next one I do will be with a realistic amount of money to play with, not this fantastic $ 220,000.

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Spoiler Alert! Long term  Buy/ Hold

Rebalancing today at Month end, as per Ric Edelman https://www.edelmanfinancial.com/

 

I am selling winners and buying losers.  Selling CVS and VNQ, an REIT, for a gain of  $ 300.96 and  $ 420, respectively. I am only selling enough to "rebalance" the portfolio.

  I am buying KFYP and SASR. KF has the misfortune right now to be a basically chinese Intl etf,  suffering now with the " Dumpy One" flinging his ill thought out tariffs at.  My feeling is that won't last forever, and there are other places for these companies to  do business than the US.  I am also buying  SASR, which had the misfortune of missing eps expectations last quarter, although they still posted an increase in YoY earnings per share.

My advice to day traders is " Stop chomping at the bit". You  are likely losing money jumping in and out of the market all the time.

I suppose one critical caveat has to be: the loser you buy, has to be a decent security, we are not talking about stinking piles of dead fish here.  Those get shoveled out wholesale.

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