Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

analyst75

Trading in uncertain times

Recommended Posts

The problem of trading in uncertain times crept up on the Mentor Program Alumni forum and I have been thinking about my answer. The original answer I gave is shown below –

 

I think one of the things you need to be able to do is to define what uncertainty is. If you opt for volatility as a proxy for uncertainty then you see something quite interesting. The VIX which is known as the fear index and should reflect uncertainty is actually at sitting somewhere near its long term average, indicating that the players who make up this index don’t actually see any uncertainty and are not asking for an increase in the risk premium they demand. The same is true if you look at the historic volatility in the Dow which is also sitting at a 9 year low. From my perspective is the issue is not uncertainty in markets but uncertainty in decision making that is brought about by listening to external sources. If you switched off the news and all the associated commentary and simply looked at markets what would they tell you?

 

What has caused me to think further about this overnight is the notion of what actually is the uncertainty that is being referred to. Is it a true physical uncertainty or a psychological perception brought on by exposure to the narratives of others? I had a look at Wikipedia for a more formal definition of uncertainty and it gave the following –

 

Uncertainty is a situation which involves imperfect and/or unknown information. However, “uncertainty is an unintelligible expression without a straightforward description”.[1] It arises in subtly different ways in a number of fields, including insurance, philosophy, physics, statistics, economics, finance, psychology, sociology, engineering, metrology, and information science. It applies to predictions of future events, to physical measurements that are already made, or to the unknown. Uncertainty arises in partially observable and/or stochastic environments, as well as due to ignorance and/or indolence.

 

You will notice that the definition holds at its core the uncertainty inherent in predicting future events. In fact the science of probability is based around trying to deal with the fact that the universe is an uncertain place. However, uncertainty is the default setting in trading – the outcome of all trades is unknown until they are closed. It is this uncertainty that gives us the potential to be profitable, investments that have known or certain outcomes have no risk premium attached as such they offer little in the way of return (think bank deposit). This definition is therefore of little use in unpacking the notion of a change in traders uncertainty quotient. Granted we can respond to changes in volatility and we have tools to measure this but this is a reasonably common occurrence in trading and there are strategies that can be put in place to deal with this. In fact very basic position sizing and volatility based stops self-correct to deal with this sort of problem.

 

So I am drawn back to the idea that what actually changes is the tone and intensity of the narratives that people surround themselves with. This ever increasing crescendo of noise is bound to take an effect on peoples psyche particularity at present when the world appears to be spinning out of control. However, notice I used the expression appears, I used this term because appearances and reality are not the same thing. What brings some equilibrium back to the noise of others is as always context, the markets tell a completely different story. Whilst the breathless gibbering that is the media may consider the present to be the most troubled time in history and need to shout about it at every opportunity neither that markets nor history itself would agree.

 

This is the most salient point for traders with regards to what is considered uncertainty. Uncertainty is the environment within which we operate as a broad observation but beyond that it is actually the markets themselves that define what actually uncertainty is and they can do this by readily accessible metrics. When volatility and in turn risk premiums increase then we can say that uncertainty has increased. However, even here people try inject their own primitive narrative into events as the VIX which is a widely known measure of volatility is referred to as the fear index when it is nothing of the sort. However, this is the natural human desire for drama, we all have a friend or relative who is addicted to drama and those in the news media, particularly the financial arena and prime diva’s. So if you find yourself believing that uncertainty has increased but markets don’t agree then you will need to do something about what leaks into your brain.

 

Author: Chris Tate

 

Article reproduced with kind permission of: Tradinggame.com.au

 

 

Traders’ Mindset: Advfnbooks.com/books/insights/index.html

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Topics

  • Posts

    • Good afternoon, I'm new on here.  I came looking to find some info on the Forex market.  I've seen lots of brokers ads about the Forex and seen some people talking about the Forex market, but I've never payed to much attention to it. I always had other markets to look at or other things to do.  So, what I need is a point to start learning ... like what a PIP is,  how do you buy/sell this currency pair, how much money is a PIP ( if I make 100 PIPs how much is that ) , etc. Secondly,  I wanted to know if anyone had ever taken the EAP course by Steven Hart ?  How that came out and so forth ?
    • Date : 22nd March 2019. MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 22nd March 2019.FX News Today Bund yields slightly higher in opening trade after cautious session on Asian stock markets. EU hands UK another 2 weeks to avoid no-deal Brexit, eyes May 22 exit if deal passes, otherwise PM May must come up with a Plan B. If the deal gets through, an extension until May 22 has already been backed by the EU-27. Japan’s nationwide core CPI undershot expectations at 0.7% y/y in February. The European calendar focuses on Eurozone prel. March Manufacturing PMI readings. Gold whipsawed back toward $1,300 by resurgent USD index near 96.5 EURUSD corrected back under 1.1400. USDJPY up from 5-week low of 110.28. WTI crude has settled slightly below $60.0 after posting a fresh 4-month high at $60.39 Charts of the DayTechnician’s Corner EURUSD is slightly below Pivot Point of the day and the 38.2% Fib from the week’s peak, at 1.1385. A decisive break could lead towards 1.1410 Resistance. However indicators are not supportive, as they remain negatively configured. GBPUSD topped at 1.3160, however the last 4 small body candles along with the latest doji candle suggest that upside movement might reach an end. Support at 1.3113 and 1.3000. USDJPY dropped further into London open, down to 110.70. Indicators retreated from neutral zone, with RSI looking lower. The next Support level is at 110.64, and 110.36. Main Macro Events Today Eurozone Manufacturing PMI – Eurozone Manufacturing PMI is expected to improve marginally to 49.5 from 49.3 and the services reading to ease slightly to a still strong 52.7 from 52.8, which should leave the composite slightly higher at 52.0, versus 51.9 in the previous month. Canadian CPI – The CPI is expected to climb 0.5% in February (m/m, nsa) after the 0.1% rise in January, boosted by stronger gasoline prices and seasonal strength in February’s CPI. Canadian Retail Sales – The Retail sales are anticipated at 0.3% in January after the 0.1% dip in December. US Home Sales – Sales are estimated to grow 0.6% following a 1.0% December decline. The I/S(Inventory to Sales) ratio should edge down to 1.32, from 1.33. Support and Resistance Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • USDJPY Halts Weakness With Eyes On More Recovery USDJPY eyes more recovery following its price halt on Thursday. As long as it stays above the 110.35 support zone, more price strength is expected. On the upside, resistance comes in at 111.50 level. Above this level will turn attention to the 112.00 level. Further out, we expect a possible move towards the 112.50 level. A cut through here will open the door for more gain towards the 113.00. On the downside, support comes in at the 110.50 level where a break will target the 110.00 level. Below that level will turn focus to the 109.50 level and then lower towards the 109.00 level. On the whole, USDJPY faces further upside pressure on further recovery.  
    • Latest SC screen found a few tech related breakout watch stocks $COUP $VECO $AMBA $EBAY $MXL and $INTC , analysis https://stockconsultant.com/?COUP
    • USDCAD Eyes More Upside Pressure On Corrective Recovery USDCAD eyes more upside pressure on corrective recovery as it saw a rally on Thursday. Support comes in at the 1.3300 level where a break will aim at the 1.3250 level. Further down, support comes in at the 1.3200 level where a turn lower may occur. But if further weakness is triggered support comes in at the 1.3150 level. Conversely, resistance lies at the 1.3400 level where a violation will target the 1.3450 level. Further up, resistance resides at the 1.3500 level and then the 1.3550 level. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing higher suggesting further upside pressure. All in all, USDCAD looks to strengthen further higher on more correction.  
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.