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Testing Times.

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Actions for the 4th.  Feel like the market is out to get me sometimes.  On another note, having gone over my trades, I noticed how bad I am at this.  My record is particularly bad in the 30 minutes after 10am so for the time being no more initiating trades in that half hour period.  I also need to continue working on my resilience in the face of adverse PA, that's if I can get a trade off the ground in the opening minutes.nq040720181min.thumb.png.f3d5fe1c5391963ddaa47b28f7ae4d39.pngnq04092018notes.thumb.png.78a62b9aebf2d1267550a6e04b92b9e7.png

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Actions for the 18th.  Feeling pretty frustrated with myself, T1 was not as clear cut as I would have liked and the following highs ended with deep rets.  I thought price would grind higher, by T2 I thought the volume was spasmodic (volume spikes on up and down bars) and not really offering much information, I took the shorts but thought they were likely to fail.  Despite thinking price would go higher I could not see an entry that I thought would not be whipped by the PA.  I was out of position in what I saw as a grind higher that had a high risk of trashing any longs in PA that was a little indecisive in a volume environment that offered very little in the way of clues, trending chop.  I wanted to shut down before T2 but forced out trades trying to make something out of nothing.

I missed a long right off the open as I was ill prepared for it, if I had been long I would likely have bailed out, but, being better positioned would allow one to relax and let it run instead of trying to chase and getting stung.nq180920181min.thumb.png.3840a57a3f32b972c151d14fb993f9f4.png

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I'm going to start posting again but will take some time to try and fill in the blanks since my last post.


If it wasnt obvious from my last few posts I was in the process of blowing up, it was not something that spontaneously happened but was rather the culmination of a number of factors over a lengthy period of time that led me to think it wasn't possible for me to be profitable, at least not by how I was doing things.  I felt as if every trade I touched was going to fail and had developed a losers expectation, in tweaking the strat to avoid losses I had more losers which exacerbated the problem. 

I was increasingly unable to figure out what was going on, the charts looked like mince and I doubted what I was coming up with would stand any scrutiny in real time.  I was in a perpetual state of tilt and I was left feeling like I was being screwed around with over the last couple of months leading up to the pause in September, none of this was my fault of course, it was just the market playing its games.

The frustration of watching trades failing within seconds had led me to the conclusion that I needed a change of strategy, I started to play around with a few ideas but a nagging doubt remained.  What use is there having a strategy if I cant follow it consistently?  

I came across my copy off trading in the zone, which I haven't read in a while and by chapter 3 I was ready to hit myself over the head with it.  How the f*** did my attitude get so bent out of shape?  It was a slow erosion that took place over a prolonged time frame, probably started back in 2017 when my results were sucking a lot after having spent the latter half of '16 absent from the markets.  I was aware that I had issues gnawing away at the back of my mind but actively avoided dealing with them which led to me becoming increasingly frustrated as time wore on, I was to blame for all my failings and I needed to accept that "Taking responsibility is the cornerstone of a winning attitude". 

I started simming again in the last week of November and results have been better, I'm finding it easier to take trades without foaming at the mouth, its easier to hold them which is resulting in bigger gains and I am a little more patient with where I take the trades (I looked over my charts and I was taking trades all over the place and in particular places where PA was likely to chop), BUT, when I hit a patch where a handful of trades don't work out so well my attitude starts to waiver.  I seem to over trade and I also tighten up on my trades choking them out, this is a lack of resilience, I think I have to persevere with it to see if it can hold up because my results have been better than they have been in a long time.

I am thinking about switching to a 2 or 3 lot strategy as I find a 1 lot a little restrictive, I cant realise the full potential of a move as I have been targeting the first hurdle for an exit, it might be more productive to take one off early and leave the other to run.  With a range play in mind take one off at the MP and leave the other for the opposing extreme, just a thought for the time being.

Edited by Gamera

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Actions for the 14th.  Not the greatest result but its something, I move my stops positive when the trade moves far enough but have a tendency to get stung on it.  In my last post I was entertaining the idea of trading 2 lots as a lot of my trades meet that requirement now that I could target that initial move with one and let the other breath a little, one of the many things I'm trying to figure out.


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    • USDCHF Faces Further Weakness On Close Lower USDCHF faces further weakness on close lower following its past week losses. Resistance comes in at the 1.0050 level. A break of here will clear the way for more gain towards the 1.0100 level. Above here, resistance lies at the 1.0150 level and then the 1.0250 level. On the downside, support is seen at the 0.9950 level. A turn below there will set the stage for more decline towards the 0.9900 level. And then the 0.9850 level. Its daily risk is bearish and pointing lower suggesting further weakness. All in all, USDCHF faces further downside pressure on price pullback threats.
    • While at the gym today, I remembered that I passed on 2 trades this morning that both turned out to be high runners. I literally had the thought "this one is no good" as if I would know the future.  It's easy to overlook it but this is where the awareness and probabilistic mindset comes into play. I realize I have been trying to filter out losers instead of taking the setups. Next week, I will focus on taking all trades instead of filtering. 
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    • Date : 22nd February 2019.

      MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 22nd February 2019.

      FX News Today Both Topix and Nikkei, declined during the Asian session, with -0.25% and -0.18% respectively. Overall, stock markets in Asia struggled through most of the session as subdued inflation data rekindled concerns about a lack of demand and flagging growth and after Wall Street closed in the red. News that US President Trump will meet with China’s top trade negotiator today in Washington seems to have helped Chinese markets to stage a late rally and CSI 300 and Shanghai Comp are up 1.76% and 1.51% respectively and the Hang Seng also managed to claw back losses and is up 0.11%. US stock futures are posting marginal gains and the April WTI future is trading at just over USD 57 per barrel. USDCAD rallied over 1.32 to 1.3225, as Oil inventories rose, with the US at record production levels. Oil price is now back around the $57 mark. Japanese CPI data same as forecasts, pushing the Yen higher. Charts of the Day

      Main Macro Events Today EU CPI Inflation – Core inflation is expected to be confirmed at 1.1% y/y while the overall inflation rate is expected to have stood at 1.4% in January. Canadian Retail Sales – Retail Sales are expected to have declined by 0.3% m/m in December, an improvement from the 0.6% declined observed in November. Mario Draghi Speech – The ECB President is due to speak to the University of Bologna where he will accept an honourary degree. Support and Resistance
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      Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
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