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Southpaw

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Good Morning. Trading in balance. Balance rules apply. Overnight inventory is net short but not 100%. I will be paying close attention to the 1981 level. If price finds acceptance above this level, then there is definitely a change of market thinking.

 

O/N high 1975.25

O/N low 1963.5

Prior pit high 1980

Prior pit low 1955.25

Settle 1975.25

Volume 195K as of 0555am PST

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Today's attempted direction being down, with lower volume and unchanged value is evidence of a balancing and strengthening market.

Today we had a look above and fail (early morning high two ticks above the 1981.75 level). This is one of the balance trading rules. It also states that the opposite extreme becomes the target on a look above and fail. Traders didnt quite get that, but were able to take out the O/N low.

The rest of the day was chop and two sided. I was really hoping for more from the bulls today. If we open tomorrow and do not make another attempt and finding acceptance above today's high/ 30 day balance bracket upper extreme, the destination trade becomes the lower extreme at 1889.50. There are several targets along the way;

 

The gap left from yesterday is one.

The anomalies left from 10/2 are others as well.

 

Just because there is a destination trade doesn't mean the mkt will reach it. So along the way we identify intraday targets as potential entries and / or exits.

Carry fwd we are still 1T.F. higher on a daily basis for 5 days now. This is positive for upside continuation. Until we see a cessation of this, all auctions remain to the upside.

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Good morning! The main focus for me today is if we can trade above or below this 1981.75 level. Above it, could attract longer term money as we would be clear of the 30day balance we have been in. Which, may or may not turn into a trend day to the upside. Trading below, well then there is no real change. Targets to thew downside that I have written down are:

 

1) Very prominent TPO POC 1971.50

2) Prior pit low 1962.50

3) O/N low 1960.50

4) Pit low 9/10 1955.25

5) Gap fill 1943.75

 

I've posted a screen shot of the stop run overnight when traders got price above the 1981.75 level. Pretty cool stuff.

 

Prior pit high 1982.25

Prior pit low 1962.50

O/N high 1985.50

O/N low 1960.50

Settle 1968

Volume 237K as of 0545am PST

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I think it's safe to say we have a short term trend to the upside. The last 5 of 6 days have been up days. 1T.F. higher for 6days now. Closed above the balance bracket high of 1981.75. Goes without saying, staying above this level is positive and will be evidence of a reordering of the markets thinking. Today left a poor low. Carry this event forward.

 

I've been eyeballing a Globex level on my ToS charts (24hr Daily). This level is the 1989 level. With this in mind, let's talk profile:

'A' period traded a tick below this level, B opened and traded through it only to find failure. Sellers stepped in and drove the market down to the very prominent POC from yesterday. We had a 2.5 handle bounce from this level then selling resumed and price was taken to the settle from yesterday (1968). It's so hard (at least for me) to tell exactly what's happening when it happens. But hind sight reveals that this selling was an inventory adjustment from the overnight session, as inventory was 100% long coming into today's session. From this point on, I believe that buyers from multiple time frames stepped in and took the market all the back to --- yep, exactly to 1989, the Globex level. The collapsed profile shows this very well. Jim Dalton always says, a market has to break before it can rally. I think today was an example of this, and shaking out the weaker longs.

 

The market short term is still very long. The last two attempts to auction outside of the 30 day balance bracket (1 to the upside, and 1 to the downside) have failed and the opposite extreme was reached. Keep this very important piece of data in your mind.

Sketchy area to be in right now, keep a flexible bias.

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Good morning. Trading within balance overnight. Balance trading rules apply. The mkt is currently trading back into the 30+ day balance bracket. (Below 1981.75). A couple things to keep in your mind during today's trade.

 

1) There is a poor low left from yesterday. The mkt may revisit this level to repair it.

2) FOMC minutes at 11am PST. There will be volatility after this event.

 

Overnight inventory is net short but not 100%.

 

O/N high 1989.25

O/N low 1971

Prior pit high 1991.25

Prior pit low 1967.50

Settle 1987.25

Volume 219K as of 0545am PST

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FOMC data was received as positive for traders as we had a spike up to 2008.75. I'm viewing the spike base as the 1989 level. Spike trading rules are as follows:

1)Opening and remaining above spike. Very positive and suggests that the latest auction had not gone high enough to cut off the buying.

2) Opening and remaining within the spike tells us that the spike was accepted; this would also be seen as positive as value would be developing higher.

3) Opening below the spike or opening within the spike and quickly trading down below the base of the spike is negative telling us that the auction had gone high enough to attract sellers.

 

I dont much use moving averages in my trading. But the 200Day I know attracts alot of attention when traded around. Ive posted a ToS Daily 24hr chart for your review.

The nearest upside target if we continue to auction higher tomorrow is the pit high from 9/17 at 2011.75. Beyond that, I struggle to find some structural target traders may shoot for. The 200Day at 2055 seems to be what traders may target.

 

However, the market short term is very stretched out. I would not be surprised if we have a rotational day as days after FOMC seem to be a day of digestion. Another piece of market generated info Im looking at is that value and the TPO POC remained in the lower portion of the range from today indicating that the market today got itself very long.

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Happy Friday! Overnight inventory is long but not 100%. Inventories are adjusted when the mkt trades back to the settle. Overnight trade has remained in the upper portion of the spike (positive). Currently trading a gap of a handle or so. If the gap holds into to the open apply gap trading rules. Recall the spike trading rules from the recap yesterday, apply those should we begin trading back into yesterday's session.

Some possible targets to the downside are:

 

1) The Globex high of 1989

2) O/N low 1998.75

2) TPO POC 1984.75

3) Prior pit low 1978.75

 

O/N high

O/N low 1998.75

Prior pit high 2008.75

Prior pit low 1978.75

Settle 2007

Volume 203K as of 0545am PST

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I believe the attempted direction was down today. That being said, lower volume and higher value indicates a strong mkt in terms of directional performance. We also remained in the upper portion of yesterday's spike, very positive. Today left a poor high with an attempt to auction above the spike high from the Sept (9/17) FOMC day at 2011.75 (poor high is 2012.25).

 

We also have an open gap from Monday. With the continuous 1T.F. higher all week, and how the sellers didn't get much at all for their efforts in today's session (we spent 5 periods in two-sided trade in a 5 handle range), I would like to categorize the gap as a 'Break-away gap'; a Break-away gap occurs when the market is in the early stages of a long-term trend.

 

However, we are very stretched out, and volume is declining on a daily basis. We'll need more volume to hold these prices up and higher. It's very possible that longer term players have been participating to carry the market from the look below and fail (1861.50 from 9/21) of the 30+ day balance bracket, all the way to and through the upper extreme which was 1891.75, to today's high. I do not believe day and short term players could carry the market this far especially when it's been locked in a range for over a month. Just my .02

Have a great weekend!

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Good morning. Holiday trade day. Volume is extremely light as a result: 92K as of 0550am PST. Trading within balance. Balance rules apply. O/N inventory is well balanced. Keep in mind we still have a poor high from Friday's trade. Don't mistake it's repair as a break out unless it's followed by supporting volume, and price acceptance - trading rules cover this.

 

There will be no recap today. I'm going to the Chargers vs. Steelers game today!

Trade well.

 

O/N high 2012.5

O/N low 2001.75

Prior pit high 2012.25

Prior pit low 1998.75

Settle 2006.75

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Sometimes I feel like even after all these years and hardship for them, AAPL remains my favorite stock on the market. A dividend paying stock that earns 2% on your money in dividends, grows 25% a year in value and increases dividends to match. Add over 25% of it's cost in cash or treasuries and you get a blue chip with no matching peers. Since 2012 it has gone from $110B in cash to over two hundred billions. I mean, what can possibly be more superior than that?

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Opened out of balance to the downside and rallied through (10/12/15) range with a look above (prior two day balance and the spike high of 2011.75 from the Sept FOMC day) and fail. Sellers stepped in and the mkt liquidated the rest of the day closing on the lows. Value ended up being OL lower. A poor low was created and left a few anomalies. This indicates the selling was more short term liquidation than new sellers stepping in. Inventory on a daily basis has been long and the mkt stretched out.

O/N trade has been balanced and I don't think it's a coincidence that it couldnt get below (matter of fact, 1 tick above) the Globex level of 1989. O/N activity following an outside day is generally higher and we have not seen that. What doesn't happen is very often more important than what actually happens.

I'm interpreting this as follows; if the O/N low cannot be taken out, it may get the attention of buyers and the current short term uptrend may be continued.

We have a cessation of 1T.F higher with yesterday's session.

 

O/N high 1998.5

O/N low 1989.25

Prior pit high 2014.75

Prior pit low 1993.25

Settle 1993.75

Volume 197K as of 0545am PST

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10/14/15 Recap and prep (for 10/15). Today was difficult for me to ascertain what the competitors were doing. Examples: periods D, E, & F highs could not breach each other. Once G period opened, we had a rally almost to the open. At this point I was confident the attempt to auction below the 1989 level I have been watching had failed (I guess it did for a short time). Moving on, 'I' period opened and I interpreted the two ticks it created below H period lows, was a look below and fail I went long. That was short lived. The high in J was a total head fake as it happened very quick (up and down). From that time period on, the sellers prevailed.

 

We are left with a poor low and sitting right on top of the previous 30+day balance bracket upper extreme.

 

Price, value and the TPO POC migrated lower, and the mkt is between two important levels as Im seeing it. That is 1982 and 1989.

We have had the cessation of 1T.F. higher confirmed with todays session.

 

Some conflicting info to carry fwd:

 

******* Positive ******

1) Above the 30+day balance bracket

2) Short term trend is still to the upside

3) The last two days appear to have been liquidation vs. new sellers taking positions (w no new shorts, once the liquidation/ inventory adjustment is over, the longer term direction is resumed, usually quickly). Longer term in context of the past 2 weeks of trading (being up).

 

******* Negative ******

1) Two poor lows now (1982.50 and 1962.5

2) Open gap remains from 10/5 (w such low confidence in the mkt I wouldnt be surprised if the mkt makes an attempt to close it at some point

3) Over all confidence in the mkt is low

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Good morning. Overnight trade is within yesterdays range, balance. Balance trading rules apply today. O/N Inventory is 100% long. Reaction to 0530 economic news this am has the ES (and all other majors) coming off a bit.

 

O/N High 2000

O/N Low 1985

Prior pit high 2001.75

Prior pit low 1982.50

Settle 1984.25

Volume 220K as of 0550am PST

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Over the last two days trade, the profiles had several anomalies - formed by emotional selling (or buying for up days). Yesterday, the profile shape was looking like the 'b' pattern and had a poor low. All of these clues were telling me that the selling was indeed that of emotional trading, not new money selling. Traders liquidating longs as the market was very stretched out. The 'b' pattern is an indication of traders liquidating longs and this selling being accumulated by longer time frame traders expecting to take these new longs home overnight. Nothing is in stone. But this is a common pattern and it all has to be taken into context. The overnight trade being 100% long and the failed test of the 1989 level (mentioned in other posts) in the early session provides evidence of everything mentioned above. This test was in 'E' period and left 5 ticks of excess and a nice buying tail. I'll admit, the trend today caught me way off guard. I was short going into the low, I missed the tell on the buying tail and how yesterday was the 'b' pattern. It was looking like today was going to continue to the downside.

 

Today had 3 distributions in the profile (distributions are separated by single prints). This is rare. Structure is weak as a result. Value and the TPO POC did not migrate with price.

However, 1T.F. overrides the migration of the TPO POC as well as value. From G period into the close we never stopped 1T.F. Evidence of at least day timeframe confidence.

 

Tomorrow may be a rotational day as the mkt tries to absorb today's bid action. I will be watching the Sept FOMC 2011.75 high closely. Any acceptance below this may confirm the excess high we have today. Excess indicates the end of the auction. However, should price be accepted above and beyond the the 2011.75, the next auction could also be a continuation of the recent bid activity.

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Good morning. Overnight trade has been centered around the high of yesterday and inventory is balanced. There's a ledge at the 2015 level (noted in the screenshot) that is being defended by bulls. I do not think this is by accident.

 

My go no/go level is the Sept FOMC spike at 2011.75. This level is also around the highs of 10/9-12-13. Should we trade and find acceptance below this level, the weak structure from yesterday's profile will not offer much support. Should this happen I will be watching yesterday's half back at 2004.50

 

To the upside I don't have anything that is reasonably close to where we're at currently as far as intraday is concerned.

 

O/N high 2023

O/N low 2013.75

Prior pit high 2019.50

Prior pit low 1989.50

Settle 2019

Volume 168K as 0600am PST

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A great day for those who were patient and saw what was unfolding throughout the am session. I'll explain the set up after recapping the day.

Today's attempted direction was down for the most part, with lower volume and higher value implies a strong mkt. We remained in the upper portion of yesterday's third distribution, further supporting the assertion of a strong mkt. At least, for now.

Today's profile left a poor high and a very prominent TPO POC. The 1989 level was defended very well today, as traders didn't even wait for price to hit it before buyers stepped in, in force.

Let's discuss what was unfolding:

Refer to the graphic for the following if needed.

1) Sellers were getting less and less for their efforts thru 'H' period. This is evident from the poor low in B/C period, and an even poorer low when G period added to it.

2) These efforts were causing two things to shape up in the profile, 1. A 'b' pattern and 2. A 45 degree angle. The 45 degree angle is drawn from the poor low to the TPO POC. These have to be taken into context how they are formed. The sellers getting less and less for their efforts over time formed it and combined with a 'b' pattern, a short covering rally at some point (didnt have to be today) has very high odds of materializing.

Once 'I' period repaired the poor low and 'J' opened it appeared we were going to sell off. However what happened was 'J' turned into a perfect buying tail and an asymmetric opportunity.

I overlay the Market Profile onto my methodology that incorporates a set of 3 non correlated indicators from emini-watch.com - without getting too techy about it, the low in 'J' registered an exhaustion sell and bullish divergence signal on my tick bar charts. These combined with the 45 degree angle and 'b' pattern gave me the confidence to go long on the way down at 2014.75, a loss of 1.5pts as my stop was two ticks below the O/N low. I got long again on the way back up at 2014.25 for 5 pts exit right below prior pit high.

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Good Morning. Overnight trade currently trading within balance. If we open inside of Friday's range balance rules apply. Overnight inventory is pretty short. There is still a poor high from Friday too. Overnight traded above it but only RTH counts as repair. Over the weekend I noticed that the Sept FOMC high 2011.75 is also Sept monthly high. This makes the level more important and should be your downside reference for today.

 

O/N high 2028

O/N low 2017.50

Prior pit high 2026

Prior pit low 2012.25

Settle 2025.75

Volume 148K as of 0545am PST

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Attempted direction was up w lower volume and overlapping to higher value is evidence of a balancing and slowing mkt. Excess and balance are two most important things to consider when looking at the market through the lens of the Market Profile. Friday and today has had some meaningful excess on the lows. Excess marks the end of auction. It's obvious the lows are being bought up by more than just day timeframe players. The highs are not as clean. Friday we had a poor high (among other things it indicated that the upward auction was not complete). Today's action repaired the poor high and also ended the day with a mere 3 ticks of excess. Not as clean as the lows. All items are supporting factors for a continuation to the upside.

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Good morning. Overnight trade is in balance, balance rules apply for today. Looking at the RTH and O/N trade over the past few days value has been migrating up. This is positive to continuation to the upside. On the contrary, this mkt is very stretched out. It would be wise to keep expectations in check.

 

O/N high 2027.25

O/N low 2019.25

Prior pit high 2027.75

Prior pit low 2014.25

Settle 2027.75

Volume 118K as 0545am PST (light)

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From Intel's perspective sucking away billions from TSMC makes strategic sense, but for the same reason it doesn't make much sense for Apple. Apple doesn't want to see TSMC die at the bleeding edge, which is why they're fronting TSMC billions... Intel and Samsung have their own ambitions in the smartphone space, and having only those two to turn to would place Apple in a very weak position, it seems.

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From Intel's perspective sucking away billions from TSMC makes strategic sense, but for the same reason it doesn't make much sense for Apple. Apple doesn't want to see TSMC die at the bleeding edge, which is why they're fronting TSMC billions... Intel and Samsung have their own ambitions in the smartphone space, and having only those two to turn to would place Apple in a very weak position, it seems.

 

Nice copy paste post my friend.:crap:

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Still 1 T.F. higher and value is migrating along w price. Today's attempted direction was down. The morning rally high was met with some strong selling as seen in the graphic (today I left the actual volume text displayed for review on the profile), which left some nice excess. It's also technically a selling tail however with the amount of volume at the highs at the time it was real hard (at least for me) to interpret. An easily identifiable selling (or buying) tail will have declining volume creating it. Today's profile is fat indicating alot of two sided trade, leaving a very prominent TPO POC. What I find interesting is today's profile is almost identical to yesterday's if you were to turn it upside down. I'm leaning on a pull back at some point this week if not tomorrow, considering all of the above.

 

I'm also still using the monthly / sept FOMC spike high of 2011.75 as a go no/go level. Remaining above this level will indicate that bulls are still in charge. Breaking this level with acceptance may attract attention of longer term players. Which could take the mkt down further. If this happens, we have very poor structure to hold the mkt up (from the 10/15 profile).

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Good morning. Overnight range is outside yesterday's range. Inventory is net long but not 100%. Currently trading above yesterday's value area. If we open under these conditions, the mkt may be in search of a new value area which at this time would be to the upside since that is where we are w price currently. Everyday since 10/15 value has been overlapping to higher. The opens have all been within the prior day's value area. So today being outside of yesterday's is something to carry forward. The top of yesterdays value area under these situations could offer some support (2026). Also, yesterday's TPO POC is very prominent, and these can draw price back to them as they are considered a form of an anomaly (2024.50) Should we begin trading back into yesterdays range and below the above mentioned levels, be reminded that it may be just an inventory adjustment. Inventory is considered adjusted when price trades back to the prior days settle - fyi. Good luck w your trading.

 

O/N high 2034.25

O/N low 2015.75

Prior pit high 2031.50

Prior pit low 2018.50

Settle 2021.25

Volume 174K as of 0550am PST

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Today will be a quick recap as I have some other obligations to attend to right now. It's quite obvious the bears were the victor today. Once the sellers were able to drive price down to yesterday's pit session low, buyers stepped in. This left a weak low (defined as price coming a tick or exactly to another reference). There were high odds this level would be revisited. This weak low was repaired and after a decent inventory adjustment from the liquidation in H period, sellers were able to get price below the monthly / sept FOMC spike high of 2011.75.

 

Remaining below this level tomorrow put focus on the downside, and we can assume the look above (2011.75) was a delayed failure.

Finding acceptance back above this level and we can consider that all auctions could still be pressing to the upside and today was a possible 'break before the rally' as Jim Dalton says.

Lastly, today's high is poor and weak in relation to yesterday's high.

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In the last post I mentioned how Jim Dalton says sometimes a mkt has to break before it can rally. What we say yesterday confirmed this statement. Volume and price activity over the past couple of days is evidence of longer term players in this mkt as of current. The weekly volume also contributes to this evidence (see graphic).

Today the sellers made a failed attempt at closing the double digit gap. However, for large gaps, filling them only partially on the same day is not uncommon as they may not be filled for a couple of days. Also note that we are now above the 200Day MA on a Daily level (see graphic). I also have a level that personally I am using as a possible level to pay attention to on the upside. This level touches many data points for this whole year. It could mean nothing going forward. But being that markets are very visual and since on a profile level I see nothing to note as a target to the upside as of recent, this level may come into play. I have it as 2074.75. Ironic how the ONH is 1 tick below this level as well. Which reinforces my thoughts.

Today ends the 3rd week of 1T.F. higher. As long as this continues, nothing will change, obviously.

Have a great weekend.

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