Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.


Knowing the Direction of the Market

Recommended Posts

It's possible to follow the main market trend, there are many ways to get information about market change, such as important politic and economic event, and new policy etc.

Share this post

Link to post
Share on other sites

Trust your thoughts...


Understand that it's more of a "feeling" than a "knowing". There is no "knowing" in this business... there is only opportunity and an understanding of the sentiment and actions of participants that leads to movement (up or down).


It's a big question dude... there are no simple answers. Trust what you see...

Share this post

Link to post
Share on other sites



It is possible to know the past directions of any given market by observation. Further, we can impute/assign symbolic descriptions to past direction with terms like “trend”, etc. These are semantic tricks we can play on ourselves for comfort… tricks that unfortunately end up ruling/ruining many traders.


It is NOT possible to know the future direction “of any given market”... The biology of human life on earth is a sufficiently ‘quantum’ biology to create in markets what is in effect a quantum superposition whose direction cannot be known beforehand.

One way of looking at it is: The universe of humans have an unconscious estimation of the where relative ‘value’ should be/go. Only a tiny sample of them express their unconscious estimation with actual participation in ”any given market”. So, the active participants can appear to be ‘powerful’ ‘influential’ ‘controlling’… and / or ‘predictable’. But they aren’t. They always remain extremely mutable and well within the unknowable ‘fields of influence’ of the universal ‘valuation’. …

In another way of looking at it: The dominant ‘narrative’ can collapse at any moment… etc. etc.

Another way of looking at it: :rofl:… http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-04-09/i%E2%80%99m-first-say-i-can%E2%80%99t-do-it-energy-junk-bond-implosion-just-claimed-its-first-victim ... the market is full of followers... few leaders with staying power...


Future prices of a market are not ‘knowable’. You can, however, assign probabilities to the direction of ‘next’ transactions via a number of methods and techniques. More importantly, you can also learn to recognize market conditions where such assignment of probabilities has better odds of being successful. Such work never really gets easier. But you can get better at it.


A typical error is mentally conflating what in reality can only be an assignment of probability with a self delusional ‘knowing’ what the future direction “of any given market” will be. ...This has a lot to do with the habitual, ‘normal’ states one brings to trading from past non trading experiences ... involves the threshold of certainty one consistently needs before repeatedly taking live positions with real risks and exposures , etc, etc. Variations in ... attachments(and lack thereof), fears (and lack thereof), etc., etc.

The ‘voice of trading’ calls breaking this conflation “probability thinking”. Mark Douglas addressed it directly in his books and presentations. Rande Howell discusses it in some depth in his threads and posts on this site... and would likely be open to further discussion. Also see Kahneman's book, …fast slow…


If your question was meant something more like

“what techniques can show know the future direction of any given market?” The only way you can go wrong with any of them - Elliott-like, Gann-like, Wyckoff-like, etc etc... cycle duration projections, astro, ...etc etc etc, - is to force yourself into methods that are incompatible with your own true nature. But I like the original, but admittedly less practical, answer much better ... ie ...

Much of technical analysis resorts to clever use of wet ware geometry (eyeball regressions at the cost of ever ‘solving’ the larger system - which is yourself.)

Much of ‘fundamental’ analysis resorts to clever use of wet ware algebra ( valuations at the cost of ever ‘solving’ the larger system - which is yourself.)

Much of ‘sentiment’/narrative analysis resorts to clever use of wet ware reflexivity (projections at the cost of ever ‘solving’ the larger system - which is yourself.)


"'tis an ill wind that blows no minds". - Syadasti

Share this post

Link to post
Share on other sites

Stock prices change everyday by market forces. ... If more people want to buy astock (demand) than sell it (supply), then the price moves up. Conversely, if more people wanted to sell a stock than buy it, there would be greater supply than demand, and the price would fall.

Share this post

Link to post
Share on other sites
On 15/12/2018 at 9:11 AM, divyanshisharma said:

Stock prices change everyday by market forces. ... If more people want to buy astock (demand) than sell it (supply), then the price moves up. Conversely, if more people wanted to sell a stock than buy it, there would be greater supply than demand, and the price would fall.

NO ..............................................................

Share this post

Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

  • Topics

  • Posts

    • Actions for the 22nd.  I seem to be on a bad run, I'm really struggling with the opening minutes of the trades I'm taking and then get sucked into a little over trading.
    •   Date : 23rd January 2019.

      MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 23rd January 2019.

      FX News Today 10-year Treasury yields are down from overnight highs, but still up 0.7 bp at 2.746%, and 10-year JGB yields climbed 0.8 bp to -0.004%. Stock markets remained cautious during the Asian session. The Bank of Japan held policy steady, as expected, while further reducing its outlook for inflation. The resulting weakness in the Yen didn’t help stock markets and Topix and Nikkei dropped -0.60% and -0.14% respectively. The Hang Seng is also down -0.04%, despite mainland China markets initially moving higher as China’s central bank pumped liquidity into the banking system once again. Still, the measures are also a sign that officials are nervous about the slowdown in the economy and CSI 300 and Shanghai Comp are down -0.24% and -0.13%. The bank offered around 258 bln Yuan (USD 38 bln) to banks through its medium term lending tool. Markets continue to question the progress in the US-Sino trade talks, even though White House adviser Lawrence Kudlow said that the trade talks are still on and the story about cancelled preparatory meetings was “not true, there was never any meeting. We are moving toward negotiations.” The negotiations next week will be “very, very important” and “determinative”. Meanwhile, there are the first signs of a possible way out of the US government shutdown. Markets remain easily spooked, but appear to have already priced in a lot of risk last year and US stock futures are moving higher after yesterday’s sell off. Oil prices are trading at USD 53.27 per barrel. Charts of the Day

      Main Macro Events Today Canadian Retail Sales – After Wholesale Sales plummeted yesterday, Canadian Retail Sales are expected to have also declined by 0.4% m/m, with core Retail Sales (ex autos) expected to have declined by 0.6%. World Economic Forum at Davos –The second day of the WEF annual meetings held in Davos and attended by officials from over 90 countries. Comments from central bankers and other influential officials can create significant market volatility. Richmond Manufacturing Index – Expectations – The index is expected to have remained at a sub-zero level, standing at -2 after the -8 in the December release. Support and Resistance Levels

      Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

      Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

      Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

      Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

      Click HERE to READ more Market news.

      Dr Nektarios Michail
      Market Analyst

      Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • USDJPY Eyes The 109.88 Resistance Zone And Beyond USDJPY eyes the 109.88 resistance zone beyond as it looks to resume its upside pressure. On the upside, resistance comes in at 110.00 level. A turn above here will turn attention to the 110.50 level. Further out, we expect a possible move towards the 111.00 level if the earlier resistance is invalidated out. The next resistance resides at the 111.50. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing higher suggesting further strength. On the downside, support comes in at the 109.50 level where a break will target the 109.00 level. Below that level will turn focus to the 108.50 level and then lower the 108.00 level. On the whole, USDJPY faces further upside pressure on corrective recovery.  
    • $AVGR (AVGR) Avinger stock strong day w/ bottom breakout watch above 0.38,

      analysis https://stockconsultant.com/?AVGR
    • AUDUSD Weakens On Further Pullback Threats.  AUDUSD weakens on further pullback threats as it saw price extension during early trading on Tuesday. On the upside, resistance stands at the 1.7200 level. A cut through here will turn attention to the 0.7250 level and then the 0.7300 level. A violation will set the stage for a retarget of the 0.7350 level. Support resides at the 0.7100 level where a breach will aim at the 0.7050 level. Below here will set the stage for a run at the 0.7000 level with a cut through here targeting further downside pressure towards the 0.6950 level. On the whole, AUDUSD faces further downside threats.

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.