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DbPhoenix

Trading the SLA/AMT Intraday

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Just checking up on you. If you keep up with this, you'll eventually learn to let AMT do its job. If you're in a range, just ignore all the back and fill and LHs and HLs and whatever and just let it go. As long as you're in no danger of losing money, there's no downside to sitting on your hands unless you're scalping. As to whether you exit at the limit or hold on for a continuation, you'll have to look at your tactics for trading either.

 

1539: Apparently traders don't know what to do with the Fed Minutes (when you see a spike like that at 1400, you can assume it's some sort of news). Which may be why price isn't behaving as you'd expect. Let's see if we can hold up here.

Edited by DbPhoenix

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Indeed. There was little to nothing for me to say since he was pretty much saying what I would have (except for the trades :)).

 

I hadn't planned on conducting a class. When so many people said that they traded this intraday, I thought they'd like to have an opportunity to talk to each other. Doing it here meant that they could do it free from trolls. But Gamera is pretty much carrying the load by himself. He and you and whoever else are welcome to continue posting here and I will guard the entrance, but no one learns this simply by reading somebody else's posts. One must grapple with it and trade it and come to some sort of accommodation between what he wants and what the market is willing to give him. Those who have been struggling with it for so long never made any progress until they put the pedal to the metal.

Edited by DbPhoenix

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Mea Culpa.

 

I should step in here to say that I am a lurker. I've been away for a few days up in London (School Holidays), but will start posting from tomorrow.

 

DB you've mentioned the trolls a few times back @ elite trader. As you moderate here on TL, is it better for me to start a journal here?

 

Your choice.

Edited by DbPhoenix

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attachment.php?attachmentid=39013&stc=1&d=1424354608

 

0947: Watch for 00

 

----- The takeaway here is not what one looks at in order to enter the trade but whether or not he entered the trade at all. In this case, the mkt provided the trader with both a breakout and a ret.

 

----- If price has been consolidating for two days and breaks out to the upside and your target is the upper limit of the trend channel, 50pts away, don't be too eager to exit the trade, much less to short.

 

1020: If using a DL, the drop at 1000 should obviously be ignored.

 

----- Stay in the trade if at all possible. This is a good example of when and how the SLA and AMT work together.

 

----- I should point out that XOM is a big drag on the ES, but eventually the NQ and ES will decouple.

 

1033: DL break

 

1037: Fan the line. The line now pretty much includes that 1000 drop.

 

1045: DL breaking again. Breaking at this level indicates that traders are "taking a break" (no pun intended). That doesn't necessarily mean it's all over.

 

1050: Now you have a line in the sand.

 

1056: That swing low to 07 is a sentiment indicator. Are you going to use it to determine whether or not you should exit the trade and if so how?

 

1120: Looking at potential BO through 10.

 

----- Remember that a retracement in an uptrend is a test of buying interest.

 

1126: Looks like just about everybody is gone. ?

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=39023&stc=1&d=1424437761

0219.png.ef359e1280f2c1081d38e3ebbc7aa669.png

0219a.png.5c7e3f58601ec7e1443c12d34fc2b060.png

Edited by DbPhoenix

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When so many people said that they traded this intraday, I thought they'd like to have an opportunity to talk to each other. Doing it here meant that they could do it free from trolls. But Gamera is pretty much carrying the load by himself.

 

So are you saying that you want everyone to be posting like Gamera is - or start a journal here to chronicle our progress?

 

Whatever helps you advance as a trader.

 

Eventually people get tired of talking to themselves and move on.

 

For me posting when watching is a little too distracting.

Edited by gears

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Pre market post. 76.5 still in play shorter term range might be more prevalent 83-92.

 

09:31 Price at PM high and testing, there is ON highs at 4401 above if this breaks higher.

 

09:33 Second test of 92.

 

09:37 price has gotten hung up at 88 on the downside, yesterday it struggled to get above this area, will have to watch if it has much influence today.

 

09:38 Breaking higher but the right tick keeps getting knocked back.

 

09:40 No drop off in price, it returns and breaks higher.

 

09:42 Pull back to resistance now support price will it retest and take off or drop down?

 

09:44 Ret not confirmed yet.

 

09:46 Ret confirmed.

 

09:49 Price grinding higher, guess a long on the retest at 92 with a 1 point or so stop would have been a good play. in hindsight of course.

 

09:51 As DB points out big round numbers can get a bit of attention.

 

09:56 Might expect to see more rets and overlap as we approach 00-01.

 

09:58 BO that seems to have failed, do we get follow through or failure.

 

09:59 Im triggered short.

 

10:01 LH and drop off.

 

10:02 92 first hurdle.

 

10:06 its a no go, stop out -1.75

 

10:07 Price breaks higher, SLA takes over.

 

10:10 Price seems to have broken out, again, and is putting in a ret.

 

10:18 Ret was confirmed price on a grind.

I lost sight of the bigger picture on that short, price rejected move upwards of the ONH so I saw it as an opportunity to short with price coming back into range.

 

10:21 We had a second breakout followed by a ret, a DL could be drawn in now to track the move.

 

10:27 I am hesitant to get long as we get further from the best entry, each entry onwards gets riskier, I think.

 

10:32 If my DL is right it has been broken.

 

10:34 After the last swing low price failed to get higher, this could be an upcoming short on further breakdown.

 

10:39 Price pushes higher, DL fanned.

 

10:43 DB, does your DL start at 09:35 lows?

 

10:45 DL breaking again.

 

10:47 Previous swing low (10:41) broken

 

10:55 unfortunately something has come up, no idea how long I will be.

 

12:10 Back, price has not progressed much since I left but there have been a few things of note.

 

12:21 Price seems to be in a drift lower.

 

12:31 Still drifting lower making successive LH's and LL's

 

12:36 Price makes an out of the norm drop and heads for the 00's again, will this be another retest or breakdown.

 

12:40 Ret or Rev?

 

12:45 2 bar pull back then a push higher suggests this is a Rev confirmed see if it follows through.

 

12:59 Have been thinking about the day so far and my last trade, PM we had a very clear area at 92 that price could not get beyond, also the ONH at 4401, price after a couple of tests broke 92 and retested from above. Now this is the point I should have taken the entry long, I even identified it at the time but for some reason I failed to act, (I am suspicious of the opening moves) this is a breakout of the PM range and the part that I am unsure about now is should SLA have taken over at this point or should AMT been in play until 4401.

 

How much credit does one give the ONH once the PM range is broken, my trade was taken on an AMT basis and the initial drop seemed to validate this, but I see now that if SLA was in use we got a break of the DL but there was no LH besides a 1 bar ret once price got back to highs.

 

I'm pretty sure if we were in clear air and long I would have endured a PB as a deeper retrace.

 

13:44 Still drifting.

 

14:08 Price drift to new highs.

 

14:15 Not much in the way of drop off from highs yet.

 

14:21 Now that price is dropping off could we assume that 4414 is important as price has been turned back a second time from this level.

 

15:04 Price heading back to 14 will we see a concerted effort to push higher or will this level hold.

 

15:07 BO

 

15:09 Long on the BO. DL from most recent lows.

 

15:11 Price not following through yet, pulled back to test level, still holding.

 

15:13 Ret still unconfirmed, is price behaving like a BO? not yet.

 

15:21 Trade exited -2.25 no follow through which I would have expected from a BO and price drifting back under 14 was enough for me on this one.

 

15:23 Also to add there was a DL break and LH.

 

Calling it a day, a little frustrated with my miss on the 92 trade but I'll get over it.. I hope.

 

Gamera.

nq190220151minPMPA.thumb.png.3ceb8392fb582d8d704a08635ba0200e.png

Edited by Gamera

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I would post more, but I'm just waiting on 01 or 76 to be tested. Like waitin on a woman...

 

1007- Nice breakout here

 

1014- RET triggered

 

1033- DL break, but not exiting until at least last swing low broken

 

1039- New HH, fan DL, still in long...

 

1103- Exited, done for the day

Edited by youngin

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Hi Db,

 

Sorry but a noob question:

 

1. When using Prior Day's Hi/Lo and ONH/OHL to identify a range, can we mix the levels like this in the attached chart (using Prior Day's Low and ONH)?

 

2. Or should we separate Prior Day's Hi/Lo and ONH/ONL?

 

p/s: I copied the hinge from your earlier chart..

 

Whatever enables you to enter the trade properly.

 

Ok thanks! Both ranges are useful.

 

11.29: Thanks for today's commentary, Db and all. I'll have to leave now..

DB-NQ-M15-2015-02-19.2.thumb.png.429caf2278b995654d1da1494f80cf27.png

Edited by fourtiwinks

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OK - so let this be a warning to everyone. When you do this by yourself and create a whole vocabulary of shorthand to describe what you're seeing, as soon as you have to show someone else your work you'll feel like a real dunce; as that shorthand you use in your journals etc just looks like gibberish :)

 

That being said, once I start posting my notes from tomorrow I'll use the common vocabulary, so I apologise for the foreign language on the chart. But I just wanted to show that I was following along today....

 

For better or worse, here's what I've got from the first 90M.

19Feb2015_upload.thumb.png.dacbb759d2d64d23a80f0dd1cf6b3714.png

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Well DB, this last chart and commentary has me a bit perplexed. I guess I am as you say, I am not being flexible enough, but I have drilled it into my head to play pullbacks. Now I am feeling incompetent for not buying breakouts from ranges. The pullback on the break up did not allow much room for profit, but the pullback on the break back down was ok. Not quite comfortable with trading breakouts. FWIW. Thanks for the thread, and I am following.

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0909: My pre-market outlook:

 

39024d1424441605-trading-sla-amt-intraday-nqh5-cb-15-min-2015-02

 

0938: Looks like NQ is going down to test 00.

 

0944: NQ is above the mean for now..

 

1006: I guess if NQ breaks below 95, it's going to test 80. If it breaks above 05-ish, it will test PDH.

 

1042: Wow, that was one test indeed..

 

1102: Gamera, I think NQ is forming a range instead..

 

1105: If NQ stays above PDH, it should test ONH. If it breaks below 14, it could test 10..

 

1109: On 1-min chart, it seems to be forming a hinge too, as Gamera has mentioned earlier..

 

1127: NQ seems to forming a small descending triangle..

 

1528: Gamera, I salute you! It's tough trying to track NQ closely, yet you have done it! Take care and have a good weekend ahead! :cool:

5aa7123b56480_NQH5CB15Min2015-02-20.thumb.png.532cb66c935b5306a5b6e0660dac5f29.png

Edited by fourtiwinks

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No chart for now, for me areas not as clear as they have been. on the downside a possible test of 00's and the recent PM low at 4406 on the upside 4413 and the ONH at 4425.

 

09:34 Seem to have been disconnected a few times, hope that it is dealt with now.

 

09:37 Price did push above 13 but with one test prior to open not sure how much credit to give it.

 

09:38 Price breached PM lows but seems to be rejecting this.

 

09:39 Price rallied to the mean of this PM range and dropped out 00-01 on the cards next.

 

09:41 Price back under 00, possible move to mid 80's or 76 if it fails to reject.

 

09:44 MP of this drop is at 04.

 

09:45 Price pulled back above 00 and put in a ret testing it.

 

09:46 This is still a ret in the drop though.

 

09:47 This is where my thinking might go off, we have a rapid drop into an area of possible support, we break and retrace back above, now price is making a second go at it. Short if it breaks lower long if it breaks higher.

 

09:51 Short triggered.

 

09:53 DB price breaks higher.

 

09:54 premature entry cost me on that one.

 

09:59 price seems to be ranging on 00 4 up 4 down.

 

10:05 Low, HH, HL prices seems to stick at 96 on the downside, and we have just made a new high.

 

10:08 06 was the PM low, price seems to be shying away from it again, my thoughts right now are that price is pushing higher but not making much progress and the rets are deep.

 

10:13 Price pushes PM low but pulls back slightly.

 

10:14 Testing that PM range again, if it can stick in 13 would be up next.

 

10:19 Sit tight and let it play out.

 

10:22 If a DL was in use here it would be broken. price seems to be choking on the mean of this range.

 

10:23 Ret confirmed.

 

10:24 Another ret.

 

10:29 Struggling to the upside now.

 

10:30 Price breaks lower.

 

10:33 Retrace back into range.

 

10:34 Just noticed 4405 is the open high-low mean.

 

10:35 Watching price once it gets 13-14 and 96 on the downside.

 

10:40 so much for that idea.

 

10:41 ONH up next.

 

10:41 This is a BO pull back.

 

10:46 We got a BO and a pullback now confirmed.

 

10:49 Another ret, stride is getting knocked. Greece?

 

10:52 Looking more like a rev, I would have to say I am struggling to make out what is going on right now.

 

10:59 Possible hinge.

 

11:01 DT in the making.

 

11:02 Could be right Fourtiwinks.

 

11:06 If this is a range it is a little tight for me to play 20.5 high - 15 low.

 

11:22 Price is trickling lower, no urgency in this move at all.

 

11:30 price still meandering, testing these most recent lows after an LH.

 

11:47 Tested 4413 seems to be holding up.

 

12:00 13 tested again and holds.

 

12:21 13 on the downside is acting as support and it looks like 20.5 is at the upper edge.

 

12:35 Eh, news somewhere I take it.

 

12:37 Price reacted to something and broke higher, this was quickly rejected.

 

12:41 Price came back to pre spike levels and has taken off again to the upside.

 

12:43 Price makes an HH and rejects retrace lower and trying to form an HL.

 

12:47 Deep rets and weak moves to the upside seems to lack strength, but with my read today we might blow out the top of daily trend range.

 

13:02 Price might be going higher.

 

13:40 Price grinds to ATH.

 

13:59 Still grinding, but, I have two lines on my daily that mark the trending range, price has hit one of them, the other is sitting at around 4500, the one that is hit now is an older channel that was widened by the dropout on October 15th and the blowout on November 21st, both channels track the same mean.

 

14:29 A chart might explain what I am thinking clearer.

 

15:09 We got an initial rejection of the tighter range extreme which failed and now price is hunting out the wider extreme which is now sitting just over 4500.

 

15:51 Thanks fourtiwinks. I'm done for the day, not a great week by any stretch but you cant win them all, have a good weekend guys see you on Monday.

 

Gamera.

nq20022015daily.thumb.png.da8929568cba2d9f2f00699c0ae6cab7.png

Edited by Gamera

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I've removed my notes from the day as I am unhappy with the verbosity and certain other aspects.

 

Maybe as I was aware that I was going to post these up online I went overboard attempting to record everything that was going on in my head at the time. I usually am far more succinct.

 

Additionally they were fairly light hearted and therefore I would hate for them to reflect poorly on me and detract from the great work that posters like Gamera are doing.

 

So I'll archive them in my journal, but leave the chart of the day here....

20Feb2015.thumb.png.b16128c9ab94c602f2ef2c72907e580f.png

Edited by damnpenguins

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attachment.php?attachmentid=39028&stc=1&d=1424470556

 

Hi Db, can you explain why did you select these two ranges? I failed to see them (as reflected in my PM chart).

 

Thanks in advance and have a great weekend!

 

Price will trend regularly and predictably or thrash around with seemingly no pattern at all. But, eventually, often after the NY close, it will settle down and seek equilibrium. The first range represents this first effort, the limits being those beyond which traders won't go. These limits constrict in the second, as price gets ready to break away in one direction or the other. If the trader pays attention to what it does and how it does it, he can gain information on what traders have in mind. Here, price does what it typically does, trading 3pts away from the range on the upside and 3pts away on the downside. When trading to the downside, however, it forms a double bottom, which in a sense is a double rejection of that price level.

 

Then price takes off to 25, and since we have our median, we can measure the most likely reaction to the downside, which is what the arrows point to. That price doesn't reach the projected downside before the open doesn't alter the equidistance of the projected level. That price keeps tracking back and forth across it for a half hour confirms its importance. That price whips back and forth across 00, 4pts one way then 4pt the other, confirms the importance of 00 as well.

 

Then traders finally make up their minds and hold above 03. If one doesn't buy the breakout of this little range at 05, he can buy the test of it 20m later. Then, if he trusts AMT, he can just LITHA (Leave It The Hell Alone) and follow it to the upper limit of the weekly channel at 4450.

 

If one is thinking about the money, of course, it is unlikely that he will do any of this. He will instead be focusing on his trade rather than AMT. This is something he'll just have to deal with in some way. But at the very least, he should consider any shorts to be off the table.

 

 

Wow, I didn't expect such a detailed reply! Many thanks again Db, and really appreciate you sharing your insights.. :)

Edited by fourtiwinks

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For those who don't follow my ET journal, I no longer provide any analysis unless asked because it gets repetitive very quickly and it gets the trolls excited. Therefore, I provide only a weekly chart to show where we are, though by now anybody who's interested ought to be able to do it for themselves.

 

Even so, it's appropriate to post it here as well since intraday trading begins in the same place as any other sort: the weekly chart:

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=39032&stc=1&d=1424527528

 

And speaking of doing it for oneself, I may as well post these here as well:

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=39033&stc=1&d=1424527778

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=39034&stc=1&d=1424527779

0221Wkly.png.06818d814984951c4f87f37a66c0426a.png

TL1.png.f466be6e4bf1e6ccb626f93c3b796e7f.png

TL2.png.689fdbdf518dc303ec473271db1027f2.png

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I suggest that those who want to participate in this post their charts of the ranges by 0915 so that you can discuss them with each other. If necessary, I'll post mine before the open, though not if mine is the same as someone/everybody else's.

 

Those who just want to watch others are doing themselves a disservice.

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0859: Sure Db, here is my PM chart

39037d1424699939t-trading-sla-amt-intraday-2015-02-23-nq-pm-0857h.png

 

0911: There seems to be a hinge forming..

39041d1424700799t-trading-sla-amt-intraday-2015-02-23-nq-pm-0911h.png

 

0927: NQ has fallen back to the mean of ON range.

 

0933: NQ has bounced off QNL. Interesting.

 

0934: NQ seems to be unable to return to ON mean.

 

0941: Looks like NQ is heading towards PDH.

 

0945: After the first few minutes of the Open, the buying pressure has exceeded selling pressure. There is a current PB to 50% of the opening rally.

 

0950: NQ seems to be going to retest ONL again. Will it form a HL wrt ONL?

 

0955: It has formed HL but NQ seems to be forming a mini range between 35 and 39..

 

1013: NQ seems to be testing ONL again..

 

1015: If it breaks below ONL, would be intrested to see how it reacts to 30.25 level..

 

1034: will be interesting to know how NQ will react at that level, if it reaches there..

39044d1424705745t-trading-sla-amt-intraday-2015-02-23-nq-1034h.png

 

1101: Interesting to see how NQ stalls at the green box..

39045d1424707282t-trading-sla-amt-intraday-2015-02-23-nq-1100h.png

 

1102: NQ has gone back to ON range. Will it test ONH?

 

1110: NQ seems to be forming a hinge..

39046d1424707801t-trading-sla-amt-intraday-2015-02-23-nq-1109h.png

 

1120: Agreed with Gamera. Since PDH has not been tested, looks like NQ may approach that level..

 

1127: Gamera, I've marked your extreme on my chart (48 - 49 zone), let's see how it will pan out. Time to for me to leave. Thanks Db, Gamera, Tim and all.

 

1823: Wow Gamera, you were right! NQ did hit your extreme before it closed.. :)

2015-02-23-NQ-PM-0857h.thumb.png.7035c43a10b8818f2504c7fcd4ab0d97.png

2015-02-23-NQ-PM-0911h.thumb.png.c9a3214801184b152add4b3208d6ec76.png

2015-02-23-NQ-1034h.thumb.png.381c512d1ce0a050ced753d8496abbce.png

2015-02-23-NQ-1100h.thumb.png.95320be7353995d7b182ab3124341cc7.png

2015-02-23-NQ-1109h.thumb.png.5af6406e54e4fa155edbfdff4920f1f2.png

Edited by fourtiwinks

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This is what I have come up with. I've also attached the daily as I think it might be relevant.

 

The daily is very much relevant, though I'd leave off the green lines unless their intent is to show overbought and oversold levels.

 

09:12 You are right about the green lines, my focus for the time being is on the highlighted extremes in red.

 

09:34 Price has reached the bottom of the PM range and is so far reacting off of it.

 

09:38 41.5 is an area where price made a DT in the hour prior to open, might get a reaction at this level.

 

09:41 Price is pushing higher to the upper extreme.

 

09:42 ONH at 45, price appears to be rejecting this upper extreme.

 

09:46 Ret on the drop at the mean.

 

09:49 Confirmed.

 

09:51 Heading for the lower extreme.

 

10:02 So we had a drop from the range highs that was stopped at 35 (range lows) price pulled back to the mean before making another stab lower, this move was rejected faster than the last and resulted in a higher high after a DB.

 

10:04 After this HH price failed to push lower making a HL and is now pushing higher.

 

10:12 Price seems to be grinding in range.

 

10:17 Price breaks down.

 

10:18 Ret.

 

10:20 Ret confirmed, supply seems hesitant to follow through.

 

10:24 Little in the way of follow through so far, is this acting as a BO should?

 

10:25 Another Ret to retest the lower extreme of the range.

 

10:28 Since we are out of the range SLA takes over.

 

10:31 We appear to be stuck just below the range low, the BO did not follow through as one would expect it to do so.

 

10:32 We are back in the range, back to AMT. we had a test lower and demand was sufficient to arrest the drop.

 

10:37 Price pulled back to the range low for a test, we will see if demand can step in and push higher.

 

10:42 For the time being AMT is doing its thing.

 

10:46 Hit the contracted pm range high and is putting in a ret back to the mean.

 

10:52 This ret has turned into a rev, H,L,LH,=L,LH,LL. of course if one had the correct entry they can let it play out without risking much of a loss.

 

11:02 A little late to point out this most recent drop was stopped at the 50% level of the rally from lows.

 

11:08 Price is back at mean and chewing on it.

 

11:11 Fourtiwinks, hinge? opening high low or the shorter hinge starting on 10:36 low and through the highs? apex on the mean.

 

11:13 Got it, see your chart now.

 

11:14 If it does not blow out soon it might just dribble out the apex.

 

11:17 BO to the upside of hinge.

 

11:18 Given that we are right around the mean any move out will have to overcome the range extremes.

 

11:19 Just as a thought, the BO moved about 10 points down from the mean, if we break out an equidistant move to the upside it would put a possible range top at 48-49.

 

11:22 A trade would still be taken as it is not a proven level.

 

11:38 Pffffft surprise surprise, price tags the opposing extreme at 43, if one had entered and had endured the PB and hinge around the mean you'd have hit your other extreme now, at least according to my charts.

 

11:43 Price is now dropping off from the range top.

 

11:46 Interested to see if price follows through to the downside or if it will push previous highs 43.75 or ATH at 45.

 

11:48 A few things could happen here, DT, LH or a BO.

 

11:55 Price did not really drop off and is again lurking around the top of the range.

 

12:02 Possibly forming a hinge.

 

12:07 Price breaks out to the upside and into range highs.

 

12:08 Price has tagged opening high and drops off again.

 

12:13 This lack of activity is pretty dire, is the market waiting on something?

 

12:16 Price seems to be balancing on 43 which is the upper extreme and ONH, does this signify anything? perhaps.

 

12:19 Could this be the start of a breakdown from the upper extreme.

 

12:20 Lower extreme at 34.

 

12:21 Price seems to be choking in the area of the mean.

 

12:29 Ret is deep and is yet to be confirmed.

 

12:40 Price pushes lower.

 

12:44 With price failing on the push of the upper extreme, AMT would suggest a return to the lower extreme.

 

12:47 If price does breakdown I am aware that the last failure could result in a DB, time will tell.

 

12:49 Price is tangling with the mean of the range.

 

13:07 Price is grinding in range and looks like it is forming a hinge, apex around the mean.

 

13:14 Break to the upside of hinge.

 

13:32 Tagging the upper extreme again.

 

13:39 Back to the mean.

 

14:09 Price has been unable to push beyond the mean and is now approaching the upper extreme again.

 

14:13 Just to cap off the day so far, we had a breakdown that failed to follow through, we eventually made our way to the top of the channel and dropped again, this drop stopped a point +/- or so from the lower extreme, we tag the upper extreme again and drop off to the mean making a higher low. Each push down is weaker than the last, what could it mean?

 

14:18 We have a BO from the range which rets off the ONH, will it follow through to the upside.

 

14:23 ONH at 45, no follow through yet.

 

14:29 We tag ONH at 45.

 

14:36 Hovering above the PM range top.

 

14:38 Back in range.

 

14:41 Price drops off and into the mean where it is retracing.

 

14:45 Ret may have become a rev.

 

14:48 This most recent low was a HL than the last drop off from the extreme.

 

14:58 Looks like a DB in the short term.

 

15:00 Price appears to be giving up on the mean and moving lower, breaking the series of HL's in the progress, if they ever meant anything.

 

15:03 Testing the DB and the mean from below.

 

15:03 Here we are at the bottom extreme, is activity actually picking up now?

 

15:06 Looking like a breakdown.

 

15:09 Little in the way of follow through same as the last breakdown.

 

15:10 Ret confirmed but still little to get excited over.

 

15:16 BO failed, now back in the range.

 

15:24 Price is testing the lower extreme.

 

15:30 Wonder if AMT will see price to the upper extreme by close.

 

15:45 And here we are.

 

15:47 We could yet break higher, but, with such a strong move into the upper extreme I would not be surprised to see a quick failure and drop.

 

15:50 BO to ATH.

 

15:54 Ret confirmed.

 

16:00 I'm done for the day.

 

Take it easy and have a good night.

 

Gamera.

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nq230220151minpm.thumb.png.2c22f923ac3cca05a1d1909da70edcb0.png

Edited by Gamera

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Not a particularly difficult range to locate: 10pts from 34 to 44, with a mean at 39.

 

Now one has to decide exactly what he's going to do when price exits one side or the other: where he's going to buy or short, what criteria he's going to use to determine whether or not the trade is doing what's expected, how long he's going to give the trade to show its hand, how fast and according to what criteria he's going to bail, how soon he's going to put a stop at BE if the trade works out and if he's going to place a stop at all, and so on.

 

0932: I should also point out that the 50% level of this upmove is at 20.

 

0936: A fundamental decision which must be made which I believe we've already addressed is whether one wants to trade the range, or try to, or wait until price exits the range.

 

0946: 4pts down, 4pts up, and back to center.

 

1005: This will resolve itself eventually.

 

1009: The ES is absolutely stuck.

 

1037: Sorry I can't provide you with a more exciting day. I had a feeling it would be like this. Caca pasa.

 

1048; The temptation is strong to have some other instrument waiting in the wings to trade when these situations arise. And there's nothing wrong with that. HOWEVER, it is ABSOLUTELY ESSENTIAL that you have your process NAILED DOWN in every corner before putting more on your plate. Otherwise you'll just lose twice the money twice as fast.

 

1113: Forming a hinge. I doubt it means much considering where it's forming, but you never know.

 

1120: Pace is extremely slow. Unless one just loves doing this, it's perfectly okay to say fuck it and come back some other time. There's a danger in hanging around long enough to see trades that aren't really there.

 

1141: Approaching the upper limit of the range. But pace remains slow and activity is zip.

 

1540: I should probably make clear if I haven't already that I don't trade these little ranges They bore me to tears. There was a good entry off that test of the high at 1425, but by then I'd already quit. OTOH, 40D seems to get off on them and he has a nice explanation of what he did and why in his journal at ET. I suggest you give it a look.

Edited by DbPhoenix

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Means short term traders attract "investors" by driving price to "their" levels?

 

And only they are able to make a difference at that points - also because short term traders are in & out?

 

So only at these points change is supposed to happen?

 

It's much what I was saying last week. That as the 1m trader moves into territory that is traded by the 5m or 15m trader, a different dynamic can take place. And when they all get to a level that matters to the daily trader, the dynamic can change significantly. It's not so much a matter of "investors" but of different groups of traders with different objectives.

Edited by DbPhoenix

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