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Date : 10th August 2021.

Market Update – August 10 – Qualm gains in the market.


daily-market-update-696x364.png

Market News Today – Treasuries have been supported and bond as well as stock markets have traded cautiously mixed across the Asia Pacific region. Another stellar jobs report and hawkish Fedspeak weighed on Treasuries yesterday. Stock markets across the region are mostly higher though and even the ASX lifted 0.35% despite the slump in Australia business confidence.

In Europe, the 10-year Bund future is up 13 ticks and continuing to outperform versus Treasuries although in cash markets the US 10-year rate has corrected -1.0 bp to 1.31%. Sentiment continues to swing between concern that US labour market developments will see the Fed discussing tapering in earnest and fear that the rapid spread of the delta variant will harm the recovery as governments implement new virus measures that slow down output and demand.

GER30 and UK100 are fractionally lower, as are US futures. In FX markets the JPY is under pressure and USDJPY lifted to 110.39. NZD and to a lesser extent AUD also eased as tightening speculation was scaled back. EUR and GBP are little changed against the Dollar at 1.1735 and 1.3844 respectively. The USOIL price reversed and is currently at $67.27 per barrel. Gold recovered after a sharp fall.

Today – The key data release for this week is today’s German ZEW investor sentiment reading for August. Elsewhere we have the US NonFarm Productivity.

2021-08-10_09-48-54-1024x831.jpg

Biggest Mover @ (06:30 GMT + 1.10%) USOIL rebounded to 67.28 from 64.98. Faster MA’s aligned higher, MACD lines steadied at zero impliying consolidation in the short term, while Stochastics are above 80 pointing further up. H1 ATR 0.31, Daily ATR 1.83.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Date : 16th August 2021.

Market Update – August 16 – Sentiment, USD, Equities & Yields slip on weaker Chinese data.


daily-market-update-696x364.png

Market News Today – USD (USDIndex 92.50) ticks higher, Yields (10yr 1.248%) lower and Asian markets are lower after ATH closes on Wall Street on Friday, even after record miss for UoM consumer sentiment. DAX Futures over 16k for first time ever. Overnight – Weaker Chinese data, record Covid-19 cases in Japan and a new lockdown extension in Melbourne on top of the news from Afghanistan weighs on sentiment. Better data from JPY (beat for GDP) & NZD (better PMI’s) ignored. USOil down to break under $67.00 and Gold holds at $1775.

Week Ahead
 – FED Minutes, RBA Minutes, RBNZ Rate Decision, EUR GDP, US Retail Sales, Global CPI data,

European Open  Bailey & Lagarde will not attend Jackson Hole in person. Weak data releases out of the US, Japan and China has sapped confidence in the global recovery and given bond another boost. Core EGB yields were already supported on Friday, after the massive miss in U.S. confidence confidence reading and the September 10-year Bund future is up 29 ticks, pointing to further gains EGBs to start the week. Stock markets may still have clocked fresh records last week, also helped by expectations of ongoing central bank support, but sentiment clearly has turned cautious over the weekend.

Today – NY Fed Manufacturing (Empire State).

2021-08-16_09-47-12.jpg

Biggest Mover @ (06:30 GMT) AUDJPY (-0.58%) Broke from support at 81.00 on Friday to close at 80.75, moved lower today on weak sentiment and risk-off mood, currently testing 80.20. Faster MA’s aligned lower, MACD signal line & histogram below 0 significantly and moving lower, RSI 22; OS but still falling. H1 ATR 0.108, Daily ATR 0.530.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Date : 17th August 2021.

Market Update – August 17 – Sentiment weak, USD holds gains.


daily-market-update-696x364.png
Market News Today – USD (USDIndex 92.70) ticks higher again, on risk aversion as Virus concerns (partic. NZ which will enter new nationwide lockdown) and news from Afghanistan weighs. Yields (10yr 1.25%) lower and Asian markets are lower after ATH closes on Wall Street again (USA500 4479) even after big reverse for Empire State Manu. Index. Overnight  RBA minutes weigh on AUD “would be prepared to act in response to further bad news on the health front should that lead to a more significant setback for the economic recovery.” Better data from JPY (a big beat for Services activity) USOil up from spike lower at 65.50 to $66.70 and Gold rallies from 1770 over $1790. UK Jobs day better than expected.

European Open – The September 10-year Bund future is slightly higher, while, but still underperforming versus Treasuries, which have remained supported by ongoing risk aversion, as virus developments and geopolitical developments weigh on sentiment and sap risk appetite. DAX and FTSE 100 futures are down -0.03% and -0.18% respectively. US futures are underperforming and in FX markets the dollar is in demand. EURUSD dropped back to 1.1770, although the EUR was steady to higher against most other currencies. The Pound is struggling more and Cable dipped to 1.3821.

Today – EZ GDP (2nd), US Retail Sales, Industrial production, Fed’s Powell, Kashkari, Earnings – Walmart.

2021-08-17_09-54-19.jpg

Biggest Mover @ (06:30 GMT) NZDUSD (-1.22%) Lock news added to worries from RBA across the Tasman Sea earlier in the day and the USD safe haven bid. Crashed from 0.7025 at open and 0.7060 highs last week to 0.6920 now. Faster MA’s aligned lower, MACD signal line & histogram below 0 significantly and moving lower, RSI 17.80; OS but still falling. H1 ATR 0.0014, Daily ATR 0.0058.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Date : 23rd August 2021.

Market Update – August 23 – Dollar Dips, Equities Hold gains.


daily-market-update-696x364.png
Market News Today – USD (USDIndex 93.32) ticks lower again today, but holds significantly over 93.00.Yields (10yr 1.26%) lower as Asian stock markets follow US higher. (USA500 closed +0.81% @ 4441 & FUTS trade at 4451 now). Weekend – Afghanistan situation continues to hold, Biden issues EO on some Russian pipeline sanctions, Delta variant remains a significant concern, Japanese PM Suga suffers major reverse in local elections. Overnight – AUD & JPY PMIs miss expectations, USOil up from 7-day fall to $61.35 on Friday to $62.85, Gold holds at $1785.

European Open – September 10-yr Bund future down -15 ticks, US futures also retreating as risk appetite stabilises. Easing tapering concerns have helped underpin demand; DAX & FTSE 100 futures are up 0.7%, US futures around 0.4%. Japan’s PMI readings pointed to acceleration in the pace of contraction & while European readings are expected to remain firmly in expansion territory, there is the risk that rising cases & questions over the efficacy of vaccines will weigh on services sentiment in particular, while the manufacturing sector continues to struggle with supply chain disruptions & capacity constraints. The announcement that Jackson Hole will be a virtual event will go some way to keep at least hope in ongoing central bank support alive. “The shift away from an in-person gathering, reflects a much more cautious Fed, which in turn suggests the Fed will not be announcing a path on QE tapering as soon as Jackson Hole, and likely not in September.”  Action Economics.

Today 
– EZ, UK, US Flash PMIs, US Existing Home Sales.

2021-08-23_09-57-45.jpg

Biggest Mover @ (06:30 GMT) USOil (+1.90%) Breaks 7-day losing streak, currently up from 61.35 low on Friday to trade over $63.00 today. Currently back to $62.85. Faster MA’s aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram below 0 but rising and testing this level. RSI 55.6 and rising, MFI 110 and significantly OB. H1 ATR 0.35, Daily ATR 2.15.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Date : 24th August 2021.

Market Update – August 24 – USD Cools, Equities, Crude Oil & Gold hold gains.


daily-market-update-696x364.png
Market News Today – USD (USDIndex 93.00) ticks lower but holds at 93.00, Yields (10yr 1.255%) lower too as Asian stock markets follow US markets higher. (USA500 closed +0.85% @ 4479 & FUTS trade at 4485 now). Nasdaq biggest mover +1.55% on formal approval by the US of Pfizer (+2.5%)/BioNtech (+9.5%) vaccine. PMI data very mixed yesterday. Overnight – VP Harris (in Singapore) calls China actions in S. China Sea “intimidation” and “coercive”. USOil rallied over 5% and trades at $65.50, Gold moved on USD weakness and holds over $1800 at $1802 up from Friday’s close at $1778.

European Open – Bonds remained under pressure overnight, as stock market sentiment continued to improve. The September 10-year Bund future is down 9 ticks, U.S. futures are also in negative territory too. DAX and FTSE 100 futures meanwhile are posting gains of 0.16% and 0.21% respectively, pointing to another move higher in indexes today as investors price out an imminent tapering announcement from the Fed. In FX markets haven flows are also reversing, leaving EURUSD little changed at 1.1743 and the Pound underpinned with cable lifting to 1.3743, from a Friday close down at 1.3610. USDJPY gave up 110.00 yesterday and sits at 109.80. AUD & NZD are the best performing of the majors following strong retail sales in NZ. German Q2 GDP a tick higher than expected at 1.6%.

Today – US New Home Sales, ECB’s Schnabel, BOE’s Tenreyro and supply from Germany and the US. G7 to meet regarding Afghanistan.

2021-08-24_09-45-52.jpg

Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) NZDJPY (+0.55%) Breaks 7-day losing streak, currently up from 74.56 low on Friday to test 76.03 today. Currently back to 75.97. Faster MA’s aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram above 0 significantly and consolidating. RSI 70.82, rising and testing OB zone. Stochs in OB zone. H1 ATR 0.112, Daily ATR 0.69.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Date : 27th August 2021.

Market Update – August 27 – All Eyes on Jackson Hole.


daily-market-update-696x364.png
Market News Today
 

  • USD (USDIndex 92.98) rallied on hawkish taper talk from Kaplan, Bullard and George to 93.13 before cooling.
  • Yields held on to gains & flattened (10yr 1.342%), while
  • Equities fell on stronger USD & ISIS-K attack at Kabul Airport (85 dead inc. 13 US soldiers, Biden promises response). (USA500 -0.58% @ 4470, FUTS at 4480 now). Dell, Peloton & HP all reported weaker earnings.
  • US GDP Q2 2nd reading 6.6% vs 6.7%, Weekly Claims 353k vs 345k
  • Overnight – Asian stock markets were mixed – US COVID hospitalizations tops 100k 8-mth high. AUD retail sales worse than expected (-2.7% vs -2.6% & -1.8% previously), German import prices rising (2.2% vs 1.2% & 1.6%)
  • USOil spikes back over $68.00, to $68.20 now, from $66.65 lows yesterday.
  • Gold rallied from $1780 yesterday to over $1800 ($1803 now.)

2021-08-27_09-42-27-1024x275.jpg

European Open – The September 10-year Bund future is down -0.8 ticks, US futures steady to higher, as US cash yields climbed down from yesterday’s highs.

Markets are positioning for Fed Chair Powell to map out a taper schedule today, although it seems at this point a taper tantrum can be avoided. Investors are likely to be cautious ahead of the speech and DAX and FTSE 100 are currently down -0.16% and up 0.07% respectively.

In FX markets EURUSD lifted to 1.1762 as the dollar erased earlier gains. Cable is little changed at 1.3700. There is nothing really on the European calendar to distract from the focus on Powell.

Today  US PCE/Core PCE, Personal Income, Uni of Michigan (Final), Fed Chair Powell, Bostic, Harker, Mester, Bullard.

2021-08-27_09-57-39.jpg

Biggest Mover @ (06:30 GMT) USOIL (+1.57%) Spikes back over $68.00, to $68.20 now, from $66.65 lows yesterday. Broke 21 EMA earlier, at $67.40 next resistance $68.25. Faster MA’s aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram still above 0 line & rising. RSI 60.70 and rising. MFI 89 & in OB zone. H1 ATR 0.35, Daily ATR 2.10.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Date : 30th August 2021.

Market Update – August 27 – All Eyes on Jackson Hole.


eu_update_pic_nov18-1-696x391.jpg
Market News Today

The markets closed a difficult and nervous week firmly in the green after Fed Chair Powell’s dovish remarks at Jackson Hole. Many had geared up for hints that QE tapering could be announced as soon as September and begun in October. But Powell said that while inflation may have met the criteria to begin reducing the pace of asset purchases, he stressed that “substantial slack” remains in the labor market which is likely to continue, hence failing the test. He also supported the transitory nature of inflation, countering the bevy of FOMC hawks who have been frequently in the press warning of price pressures and advocating tapering soon, if not September.
 
  • USD (USDIndex 92.58) at multi-week lows today in the wake of Powell laying out a slower-than-expected path to rate hikes, & as traders’ focus shifts to US jobs.
  • Treasuries managed to extend the gains (10yr down -0.7 bp at 1.3%)
  • Equities are posting fractional gains, although markets clearly are cautious ahead of key jobs data for the US this week and as investors eye the impact of hurricane Ida as well as virus and geopolitical events. Topix and Nikkei are up 0.97% and 0.45% respectively also helped by stronger than expected retail sales numbers
  • Overnight  USDJPY is at 109.75 and the Yen is stronger against most currently, while AUD and NZD struggled
  • USOil turned lower at $68.04 (falling 0.31%), after energy firms suspended 1.74 million barrels per day of oil production in the US Gulf of Mexico as Hurricane Ida slammed into the Louisiana coast as a Category 4 storm
  • Gold steadied to the $1812-$1823 area
European Open – The September 10-year Bund future is up 15 ticks, slightly outperforming US futures, although in cash markets Treasuries also managed to extend Friday’s post-Powell gains and the US 10-year rate is currently down -0.7 bp at 1.30%. Powell’s cautious stance also helped stock markets and most indices across the Asia-Pacific region had a good start to the week.

GER30 futures are also up 0.12% this morning and US futures are posting fractional gains, although markets clearly are cautious ahead of key jobs data for the US this week and as investors eye the impact of hurricane Ida as well as virus and geopolitical events. In FX markets EURUSD has lifted to 1.1801 and Cable is trading little changed at 1.3765.

Today – UK markets are on holiday today, while the Eurozone data calendar includes Eurozone ESI economic confidence data as well as preliminary German inflation numbers for August, the Swiss KoF indicator and the US Pending home sales.

2021-08-30_09-56-43.jpg

Biggest Mover @ (06:30 GMT) GBPAUD (+0.56%) Spikes back to $1.8886 from $1.8797. Broke 50 EMA earlier, while faster MA’s aligned higher. The MACD signal line & histogram still below 0 line but rising. RSI at 56 and rising. H1 ATR 0.00145, Daily ATR 0.01024.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Date : 31st August 2021.

Market Update – August 31.


Syock-and-Virus-696x386.png
Market News Today

Treasuries extended gains overnight. The advent of month-end with a large duration extension, momentum from the break of 1.30% on the 10s, the lack of supply, and Covid worries have underpinned. Concurrently, stocks firmed led by a 0.9% jump in the USA100 and a 0.43% gain in the USA500, both at fresh record highs of 15,265 and 4,528, respectively. The USA30 lost altitude and closed with a -0.16% loss. Signs that China’s economy is struggling thanks to virus measures and the regulatory clampdown weighed on the market.


 
  • China’s official PMI readings meanwhile showed the manufacturing number dipping to just 50.1, while the services reading fell back into contraction territory for the first time since early last year, at just 47.5.
  • Japan’s jobless rate unexpectedly improved, but factory output declined, as did Australia building approvals.
  • The Delta variant is also leaving its mark on economies across the region. Covid surges in US.
  • EU to reimpose travel curbs to US.
  • USD (USDIndex 92.45) weakened as there is no clear signal on the Fed’s tapering timeline.
  • Equities are mixed as Topix and JPN225 managed to rise 0.7% and 1.2% respectively, also helped by stronger than expected retail sales numbers.
  • Overnight  USDJPY fell back to 109.81. The Yen declined against most other currencies though. NZDUSD jumped to 0.7062. NZD and AUD strengthened as lockdowns in NZ were seen successfully lowering new COVID-19 infections, while the Aussie was stronger after building permits raised hopes its economy could avoid recession.
  • USOil is trading at $69.14 as traders assess the prospect for an easing of output restrictions ahead of the OPEC+ meeting.
  • Gold rose to 1,819, Platinum down over 4%, Silver down 5.4% for the month, Palladium heads for its worst monthly performance in seven months.
Today – Calendar includes Eurozone inflation, German unemployment, Canadian GDP for Q2 and US Consumer Confidence.

2021-08-31_09-45-17-1024x816.jpg

Biggest Mover @ (06:30 GMT) NZDUSD (+0.94%) Spikes to 0.7062 from 0.6995. It is retesting the 3-month Resistance area at 0.7000-0.7100. Faster MA’s aligned higher. The MACD signal line & histogram rising. RSI at 78 and rising. H1 ATR 0.0012, Daily ATR 0.0065.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Date : 1st September 2021.

Market Update – September 1.


Opec-meeting-696x696.png
Market News Today

European bond markets and Eurozone peripherals in particular sold off yesterday, as more ECB officials flagged the possibility of a tapering announcement next week and it seems pretty certain now that the ECB will start to take the foot off the accelerator as it revises its growth forecast upwards once again. Activity is now expected to reach pre-crisis levels as soon as the end of this year, and fiscal support should increase, which reduces the need for central bank support to some extent at least. Central bank officials will stress the very dovish guidance on the rate outlook though in order to avoid a taper tantrum.
 
  • Bonds in Australia and Zealand underperformed and sold off sharply as traders assess the economic outlook against the background of virus developments.
  • Australia Q2 GDP beat most estimates. GDP numbers have prompted some to ditch expectations that the RBA will postpone planned moves.
  • Japan’s Markit manufacturing PMI was revised higher and continues to signal expansion.
  • USD (USDIndex 92.75) strengthened.
  • Equities are mixed as GER30 and UK100 futures are currently up 0.5%, alongside gains in US futures, which is encouraging. China’s tech stocks shake off risks.
  • EURand Sterling are lower against the Dollar, but it is the CHF that is mostly under pressure this morning.
  • USOil is trading at $68.92 as traders assess the prospect for an easing of output restrictions ahead of the OPEC+ meeting today. (Saudi struggling to increase supply, Shrinking US stockpiles, a rebound in Indian demand China’s outbreak.
  • Gold steadied to 1,810-1,817.
European Open  German retail sales corrected -5.1% m/m in July, a much more pronounced correction than anticipated, largely related to the ebb and flow of virus developments and restrictions.

Today – Data releases today are unlikely to change the outlook, and focus on final manufacturing PMI readings for the Eurozone and the UK. Eurozone unemployment data for July are also due. In the US, we have ADP and ISM data.

2021-09-01_09-48-39.jpg

Biggest Mover @ (06:30 GMT) AUDJPY (+0.41%) Spikes to 2-week highs to 80.82 from 78.00 lows. Faster MAs aligned higher. The MACD signal line & histogram are rising strongly. RSI at 70 and rising. H1 ATR 0.096, Daily ATR 0.733.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Date : 2nd September 2021.

Market Update – September 2.


daily-market-update-696x364.png
Market News Today

Trading should remain quiet and confined in the lead up to the employment report. The markets were mixed to open September with the USA100 extending gains to another record high. Longer dated Treasuries also rallied while the front end of the curve cheapened fractionally. The data were mixed and didn’t provide any strong direction. Additionally, limiting action were concerns over the spike in the Delta variant, increased mitigation measures, slowing in growth, high valuations on Wall Street, rich Treasury yields, and angst over monetary policy amid increasing hawkish talk from various Fed officials and now from some ECB members.
 

  • China tech stocks gain for 4 days straight – “Buying the dip” sentiment from months of sell off despite China firing fresh regulatory Salvo.
  • Biggest tech stock rally in record – Tech stocks power USA100 to record highs.
  • Tesla’s China output halted for days last month on chip shortage – lack of key chips , electric control devices for vehicles.
  • Treasury futures are also fractionally higher, while in cash markets the US 10-year rate has lifted 0.2 basis points. GER30 and UK100 futures are down -0.2% and -0.1% respectively, USA100 at new record highs, Topix and JPN225 are up 0.03% and 0.19% respectively.
  • Australia’s trade data was a positive surprise with the trade surplus reaching a record high in July, but there are concerns that activity will correct in Q3 thanks to Covid measures, after better than expected Q2 data yesterday. If the RBA doesn’t postpone planned tapering it could further hit the economy.
  • USD (USDIndex 92.45) extending 12-day decline.
  • USOil declined to $68.00 after OPEC+ alliance agrees to return more barrels.
  • Gold steadied to 1,810-1,817.

Today – Data releases today includes data for Switzerland and Eurozone PPI inflation and weekly jobless claims,July trade report and factory orders from the US.

2021-09-02_09-58-24.jpg

Biggest Mover @ (06:30 GMT) JPN225 (+0.19%) Crossed 20-DMA, reversing more than 40% of 2021’s decline this week. Faster MAs flattened suggesting consolidation in the short term. The MACD signal line & histogram are falling lower since yesterday’s peak and RSI steadied at 56. H1 ATR 77.68, Daily ATR 398.75.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Date : 3rd September 2021.

Market Update – September 3 – NFP day.


daily-market-update-696x364.png
Market News Today

Today’s employment report is eagerly awaited for directional purposes. The markets traded very quietly Thursday, though with a bullish bias. Treasury yields finished marginally lower with the 10-year just under 1.30%. The mix of data had little impact, though the improvement in claims did underpin an upbeat outlook into the jobs numbers, even as the factory and trade data, along with the already seen weakness in vehicle sales, weighed heavily on Q3 GDP projections.
 
  • Action on Wall Street was equally light and range-bound, though, the USA500 and the USA100 made still more new highs.
  • Data releases in Asia highlighted the impact of virus developments on the services sector in particular – Asian stock markets have moved higher and stocks across China, Japan and Australia are poised for a weekly rise, despite gloomy data.
  • The fact that the JPN225 still rallied nearly 2% and the ASX is up 0.5% shows how reliant markets are on central bank support.
  • GER30 and UK100 futures are up 0.076% and 0.014% respectively.
  • USD (USDIndex 92.16) extending 22-day support.
  • USOil extended to $69.78.
  • Gold steadied to 1,803-1,817.
Today – The calendar includes the final PMI readings for the Eurozone and the UK, which are likely to confirm that high vaccination rates limit the impact of the rapidly spreading delta variant. Eurozone retail sales and ISM Services PMI are also due. The highlight of the day is the NFP number.

2021-09-03_09-51-56.jpg

Biggest Mover @ (06:30 GMT) GBPAUD (+0.26%) Broke 28-day Support. Faster MAs aligned lower with MACD resuming its decline, Stochastic below 20 and RSI at 31.80, all suggesting a decline in the short term. H1 ATR 0.00173, Daily ATR 0.01062.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Date : 6th September 2021.

Market Update – September 6 – USD off post NFP lows.


daily-market-update-696x364.png
Market News Today
 

  • USD (USDIndex 92.18) continues at lows following NFP headline miss (pushed to 91.91) – although rest of report was strong; taper expectations slipping to Nov-Dec.
  • Yields held on to gains & flattened (10yr 1.322%), while
  • Equities slipped ahead of long weekend (USA500 -0.03% @ 4535, FUTS at 4538 now). Nikkei + 2% looks like Covid Minister (Taro Kono) will be new PM.
  • USOil crashes following price cuts from Saudi Arabia to Asian customers. From $70.00+ on Friday down to $68.00, now.
  • Gold holds Fridays gains (rallied from $1805 to $1832 peak) trades at $1827 now.)
  • Overnight – Asian stock markets were mixed, Nikkei lead markets higher on leadership talk. Chip shortages continue to gain headlines (Mercedes “through 2022”, GM factories on “idle”, CBI in UK warn of problems for “at least 2 years”.) NZ to ease Covid lockdowns, cases in Australia to peak within two weeks (emphasis now on vaccinations; 75% of NSW/Victoria popn. has now had first vax.)

Week Ahead RBA, (Tuesday) BOC (Wednesday) and top of the shop ECB (will Ms Lagarde talk taper dates?) – key US data is PPI (Friday) and JOLTS (Wednesday). Plus EU & JPY GDP (Tuesday), Chinese inflation (Thursday) and Canadian jobs (Friday).

European Open – December 10-yr Bund future down 8 ticks, US futures also fractionally lower. US payroll number headline may have been weaker than expected, but was strong in the details& against that background markets still seem to waiting for ECB to announce a slight tapering in monthly asset purchase levels this week. Lagarde will play down the importance though & is likely to once again stress the forcefully dovish guidance on the rate outlook & highlight the fact that asset purchases at levels seen in the first quarter would still mean sizeable support.

DAX and FTSE 100 futures are up 0.1% and U.S. futures are also fractionally higher. In FX markets EUR and Sterling declined against a largely stronger dollar, leaving EURUSD and Cable at 1.1872 and 1.3851 respectively. AUD & NZD gave given up some of the least two weeks gains ahead of RBA tomorrow. USDJPY has lifted to 109.80 from Fridays close at 109.67.

Today  US & Canada closed for Labor Day German Industrial Orders, EZ & UK Construction PMIs, EZ Sentix Index.

2021-09-06_09-53-28.jpg

Biggest Mover @ (06:30 GMT) AUDUSD (-0.30%) Slioped from 0.69% gain on Friday into 0.7445 close, to 0.7480 now. Faster MA’s now flat, MACD signal line & histogram still above 0 line but falling RSI 53.30 and flat. Stochs rising from OS zone. H1 ATR 0.0009, Daily ATR 0.0062.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Date : 7th September 2021.

Market Update – September 7 – Dovish RBA to buy Bonds for longer.


eu_update_pic_nov18-1-696x391.jpg
Market News Today
 
  • RBA leaves rates unchanged – but surprises by extending AUD 4 bln/week Bond purchases until February (from November)- “Delta outbreak is expected to delay, but not derail, the recovery”. No rate hikes expected until 2024 (no change). AUD spiked on no change to 0.7468, down to 0.7410 on Bond news, back to 0.7425 now.
  • USD (USDIndex 92.18) continues to hold over 92.00
  • Yields ticked up; as Treasuries slipped, (10yr 1.34%)
  • Equities pushed higher in Asia Nikkei +1.3% again to today on expectation of more stimulus & JPY data, (Earnings & Leading strong, big slip for Household spending). – USA500 FUTS at new highs 4548 earlier)
  • USOil recovers from $68.00, back to $69.00 now, on positive news from Asia session.
  • Gold slips to $1816 now, from 1828 yesterday & 1833 on Friday.
  • Overnight – Major beat for Chinese trade, exports in particular pushing trade surplus over $8bn better than expected. ($58bn vs 50bn). German Industrial production & CHF Unemployment inline with expectations.
Military coup in Guinea (one of the world’s biggest suppliers of bauxite, a necessary component of aluminium) – saw aluminium at its highest in more than a decade due to supply concerns.

European Open – December 10yr Bund future down -7 ticks at 172.29, with Treasury futures underperforming slightly. DAX & FTSE 100 futures down -0.1% & -0.2% respectively, indicating a lower open for European markets. RBA decision to stick to taper plans, albeit extending the time frame, should not dent the likely ECB move to scale back monthly purchase volumes closer to those seen in Q1. That would still mean sizeable support & Lagarde is likely to sweeten the pill with an affirmation of the very dovish guidance on interest rates. EURUSD & Cable at 1.1864 & 1.3825 respectively. USDJPY at 109.92 from Monday’s low at 109.68.

Today  German ZEW Survey, EZ Revised GDP and Final Employment, ECB weekly purchases. Government treasuries from the UK, Germany and the US.

2021-09-07_09-45-35.jpg

Biggest Mover @ (06:30 GMT) GBPAUD (+0.32%) All AUD pairs volatile on surprise from RBA, 1.8550 to 1.8650. Faster MA’s aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram breaking above 0 line and rising. RSI 63.88 and rising. H1 ATR 0.0023, Daily ATR 0.0112.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Date : 8th September 2021.

Market Update – September 8 – USD Bounces as Yields Rise.

daily-market-update.png
Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Market News

USD (USDIndex 92.60) rallies on back of rising yields & equity wobbles.

Yields rallied as Treasuries slipped, (10yr 1.37%).

Equities stalled – USA500 -15 at 4520 (Dow lost -0.76%), Nasdaq flat. USAFUTS at  4521, post Labor Day profit taking, cyclicals slipped, tech held on. (MS talks of 10-15% pull back).

USOil recovered from $67.50, back to $68.50 now, but well below $70.00 pre-NFP high.

Gold tanked to $1792 from 1828 yesterday and 1833 on Friday. Trades at $1795 now.

Overnight – JPY GDP beat (0.5% vs 0.2%) but Econ Sentiment slipped.

European Open –  Yesterday EZ GDP revised higher, but sentiment was weaker. Today December 10yr Bund future is down -8 ticks, slightly underperforming versus Treasury futures. The paper is off the highs seen during the Asian session however, & investors will look for Fedspeak today for further guidance on US interest rate outlook. Markets seem resigned to an ECB announcement this week of a slight tapering of PEPP purchases that will likely see Bunds underperforming versus Gilts & Treasuries. DAX & FTSE 100 futures down -0.025% and -0.336% respectively after a largely weaker Asia session. FX markets: EURUSD down to 1.1835, from 1.1890 yesterday, GBP struggled and Cable dipped to 1.3755, after the government announced tax hikes that will hit workers and businesses. USDJPY rallied from 109.68 yesterday to breach & hold 110.00, at 110.40. 

Today – US Crude Private Inventories, BoC Policy Decision, JOLTS report, BoE’s Bailey, Ramsden, Broadbent, Tenreyro, Fed’s Williams.

2021-09-08_09-49-53.jpg

Biggest Mover @ (06:30 GMT) AUDUSD (-0.13%)  All AUD pairs remain pressured following RBA yeasterday. Breached, 0.7400 to 0.7370 now. Faster MA’s aligned lower, MACD signal line & histogram below 0 line but flat. RSI 28.80, OS but still falling. Stochs OS n still falling.  H1 ATR 0.00082, Daily ATR 0.00615.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Date : 9th September 2021.

Market Update – September 9 – USD Hold Bid as equities slip again.


eu_update_1200x628-e1567669197104-696x339.png Trading Leveraged Products is risky
Market News
 
  • USD (USDIndex 92.72) keeps the bid even as yields cool (92.82 high yesterday)
  • Yields down from highs earlier in the week, (10yr 1.33%, now from 1.37%).
  • Equities stalled again  USA500 -5 at 4514 (Dow -0.2% & Nasdaq -0.57%). USA500.F under 4500 at 4493. (FB & APPL lost over 1%, COIN over 3% & PYPL 2.74%, Visa +1.25%, & Mastercard +1.84%). Asian markets lower too. ASX 200 (-0.4%), Nikkei 225 (-0.5%),
  • USOil recovered further to $69.40 after inventories yesterday, now back to $69.20. EIA inventories expected to show a drawdown of 5.9million barrels later.
  • Gold slipped again (lows yesterday were $1782). Back to 1788 now, having breached 21EMA on Tuesday. Next support 1769
  • Yesterday – BOC – no surprises – JOLTS – a record 10.93mln jobs opening in July vs 8.7mln unemployed Americans.
  • Overnight  China news dominates, – PPI at 13 yr high (+9.5%) although CPI softer (0.85 vs 1.0%), Regulator calls in Gaming Stock owners, and Evergrande (huge real estate corporation) defaults of $300bn of debt). German trade surplus widened (17.9b vs 13.3bn) – imports slumped.
ECB Preview: If it was just the usual hawkish crowd arguing for a scaling back of asset purchase volumes, it may be easy to dismiss, but in the minutes to the last meeting there was already a hint of things to come when council members argued that strengthening the dovish guidance on rates would take the pressure off other policy instruments – i.e. QE. In a Reuters interview in August, chief economist Lane, hardly known for his particularly hawkish credentials, admitted that the ECB will have to “assess at the September meeting the appropriate calibration for the final quarter of the year, taking into account the movement in market interest rates and the inflation outlook”. Given that VP Guindos has repeatedly flagged the possibility of further upward revisions to the growth outlook, a taper announcement today seems pretty likely. However, as Lane stressed, “in the grand scheme of things, this is a local adjustment” and “purchases in the second and third quarters were significantly higher than in the first, but even in the first quarter, compared to historical norms, purchases were pretty high.” So a drop back in PEPP purchases closer to levels seen in Q1 and at the same time, a very dovish guidance on the rate outlook from Lagarde is on the cards, which would wrap the taper in a dovish package.

European Open
 – The December 10-year Bund future is up 7 ticks, slightly outperforming Treasury futures. Eurozone bonds managed to find some buyers yesterday, but yields have been trending higher going into today’s ECB meeting, which is expected to see the ECB dropping the reference to “significantly higher” purchases than in Q1 to signal a slight taper from next month. Lagarde will wrap that in very dovish guidance on rates, however, and a commitment to step up purchases again if necessary, which should help to limit the impact of the announcement and bonds could benefit in the end. DAX and FTSE 100 futures are still down -0.6% and -0.8% respectively ahead of the ECB and U.S. futures are also in the red, as investors in Asia in particular fret about the impact of virus developments on the global recovery. FX markets are also showing signs of risk aversion, with Dollar, Yen and CHF the main winners. EURUSD down to 1.1820 from 1.1850 yesterday, GBP struggled and Cable dipped to 1.3725, after the government tax hikes, but back to 1.3775 now. USDJPY rallied to 110.40 but has since dipped to test 110.05.

Today 
 ECB & Ms. Lagarde Press conference, US Weekly Claims, EIA Oil Inventories, BOC’s Macklem, Fed’s Daly, Evans, Bowman & Williams.

2021-09-09_09-54-49.jpg

Biggest Mover @ (06:30 GMT) CADCHF (-0.42%) From a breach 0f 0.73 on Tuesday and 0.7275 support yesterday, to test 0.7230, the pair is back down again today. Faster MA’s aligned lower, MACD signal line & histogram below 0 line and moving lower. RSI 33 moving lower. H1 ATR 0.00071, Daily ATR 0.00605.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Date : 10th September 2021.

Market Update – September 10 – USD Slips, Asian equities rally.


daily-market-update-696x364.png
Market News
 
  • USD (USDIndex 92.45) slips from highs as risk sentiment picks up as CB keep their foot on the pump. Biden & Xi had a “productive” 90min call, their first since February.
  • Yields down again from highs earlier in the week, (10yr 1.299%, from 1.37%). Oxford Economics expects 10yr rate to be at 1.7% by year end.
  • Equities stalled again  USA500 -20 (-0.46%) at 4493 (Dow -0.43% & Nasdaq -0.25%). USA500.F 4504. (AMZN & MSFT lost over 1% yesterday). Asian stocks jump, Nikkei at 6-month high (+0.5%) & JPY weaker re: Biden/Xi & Kono to stand (likely to be next Japanese PM).
  • USOil fell $2 to $67.50 after inventories yesterday, now back to $68.30. EIA inventories reported a -1.5m barrel vs -5.9m/b and -7 m/b last week.
  • Gold found support at $1788 and has recovered $1800 now, as the USD dipped.
  • Yesterday – ECB – no surprises on rates talked of a “moderately lower pace for PEPP” still at 20bln euro. Ms. Lagarde “We are re-calibrating PEPP, not tapering” Another non-event. – CLAIMS – a pandemic record low 310k, 4 week average 350k, BUT continuing long term claims increased to 2.8 mln.
  • Overnight – More taper talk from Fed members, Biden said all federal employees will need to be vaccinated. German CPI flat at 3.9%, UK GDP misses (0.1% vs 0.5%) Trade balance slips another 2bln into the red, worsens, Manu. prodn misses but Ind. Production beats.
European Open – The December 10-year Bund future is up 6 ticks, outperforming versus Treasuries and signalling further gains in Eurozone bonds, which already staged a relief rally on Lagarde’s dovish leaning delivery of the slight taper in PEPP purchases. Rates are back in focus as the main signalling tool for the ECB’s policy stance and with the ECB’s newly tweaked guidance on the rate outlook that affirms a very dovish stance for the foreseeable future, markets clearly can live with a slight reduction in monthly purchase volumes. Interestingly, Holzmann suggested that the outlook for Fed tapering put pressure on the ECB. DAX and FTSE 100 futures are up 0.2% and 0.4% respectively, futures are also higher after a strong session in Asia overnight, suggesting that stocks also weren’t phased by the well flagged ECB announcement. Growth optimism is stabilising again and central bank policies will remain supportive for a long time to come. EURUSD flat at 1.1825, from a 40 pip, ECB range yesterday, GBP in demand, Cable has rallied to 1.3850 from a low at 1.3750 yesterday. USDJPY collapsed from 110.25 to 109.62 yesterday, recovering to 109.90 now.

Today  US PPI, Canadian Labour Market Report, ECB’s Lagarde, Fed’s Daly, Mester

2021-09-10_09-53-39.jpg

Biggest Mover @ (06:30 GMT) NZDJPY (+0.35%) rallied from week low at 77.80 earlier to 78.30 now as sentiment improved, equities rallied and JPY demand cooled. Faster MA’s aligned higher, MACD signal line below 0 but rising, histogram just broke over 0. RSI 62 and rising, Stochs OB zone. H1 ATR 0.112, Daily ATR 0.576.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Date : 13th September 2021.

Market Update – September 13 – Tech stocks fall, USD up.


NASDAQ_USA100_STOCK-2-696x340.png
Market News
• USD (USDIndex 92.75) up as the rise in inflation and recovery in risk appetite weighed on bonds and as the policy outlook lifts US Treasury Yields, hence supporting USD. There have been a string of voices calling for Fed tapering to begin sooner rather than later, even if Covid-19 cases are surging. But as the ECB showed, one can wrap a taper in dovish guidance on rates and thus prevent a taper tantrum.
 Equities struggled again, with China’s tech sector once again hit hard by the country’s regulatory clampdown amid a report that officials want to break up Ant Group Co’s Alipay. Online platforms have also been told to protect the rights of workers.
 JPN225 down (-0.30%). But US equities up for the day, with USA500.F bottomed at the 4470-4477 area. USA100 declined -0.87%, along with the USA30.
 Toyota downgraded projections for this year’s vehicle production numbers and China issued warnings that the chip shortage could last a while which will all add to the arguments of those saying ultra-accommodative monetary policies are only adding to existing imbalances between demand and supply that are pushing up prices at the moment.
 Apple down – follows “unfavourable” court ruling related to its app store, just days before it unveils the new iPhone line up. Alphabet down, with Google Play revenue also in doubt.Tesla down to 735.11 low.
 Yields down again, with 10-year -1.4 bp at 1.33%.
• The CHF is lower to start the week, EUR and GBP have also dropped back against a largely stronger US Dollar.
 USOil up to $70.17, supported by growing signs of supply tightness in the US as a result of Hurricane Ida. About 3/4 of the US Gulf’s offshore oil production has remained halted since late August.
 Yesterday  SNB vice-president Zurbruegg said over the weekend that negative interest rates remain necessary to keep a lid on the currency, which suggests a steady hand announcement for Switzerland. In the US, Democrats are set to float 26.5% Corporate Tax.
Today – A cautious start to a week that will bring key inflation data for the US and the UK ahead of next week’s central bank announcement. The SNB decision is also coming into view.

2021-09-13_09-59-13.jpg
Biggest Mover @ (06:30 GMT) EURCAD (-0.38%) dip from1.4990 to 1.4924. Faster MAs aligned lower, MACD signal lines steady at 0, implying indecision, but RSI at 41. H1 ATR 0.0015, Daily ATR 0.00839.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Date : 14th September 2021.

Market update – September 14 – Aussie dives!


Australia-696x392.jpg
Market News
 
  • The Treasury market holds a modest bid except in Australia and New Zealand.
  • RBA’s Lowe pushed back against rate hike expectations in a bid to separate QE tapering plans from the outlook on interest rates.
  • Australia house price data & Business confidence data came in higher than expected, and coupled with Lowe’s assuring words on rates the numbers still helped the ASX to gain 0.2%.
  • Bonds were supported by the strength seen in last week’s 3-, 10-, and 30-year auctions, as well as by expectations the FOMC will not announce a QE tapering next week.
  • Equities are mixed with solid 0.76% gains on the USA30 amid strength in energy as oil stocks surged. The USA500 posted a 0.23% increase, while the USA100 was weaker, slipping -0.07% amid declines in Chinese ADRs amid further crackdowns, this time on ANT Group. Japanese indexes are near 31-year highs and JPN225 is also currently up at 0.5% and 0.7% respectively. GER30 and UK100 futures are up.
  • The AUD and NZD declined along with yields after Lowe’s remarks. USDJPY lifted to 110.08, amid a largely weaker Yen.
  • USOil up to $70.88, as a storm hitting the Gulf of Mexico was upgraded to a Hurricane.
  • Today’s UK labour market report presented an unemployment rate down to 4.6% in the three months to July – as expected. Earnings growth eased somewhat, but remained very strong. –Strong numbers that will add to the arguments of the hawkish camp at the BoE as officials ponder strategies to exit from QE.
Today –US inflation numbers today will be in focus for markets and investors are likely to hold back ahead of the release.

2021-09-14_09-47-48.jpg

Biggest Mover @ (06:30 GMT) GBPAUD (+0.61%) spiked to 1.8890 from 1.8760. Faster MAs aligned higher, MACD signal lines are positively configured as RSI broke above 70 barrier, suggesting that bullish bias strengthens. H1 ATR 0.0022, Daily ATR 0.01063.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Date : 15th September 2021.

Market update – September 15 – Stocks plunging again.


eu_update_pic_nov18-1-696x391.jpg
Market News
 
  • Treasury yields plunged & Stock markets struggled against the background of weaker data. Buy stops were triggered on the way south for yields and added to the richening in bonds.
  • Topix and JPN225 have lost -1.15% and -0.46% respectively. USA500 is posted a 0.6% decrease, USA100 down -0.45% while the USA30 was the weakest, slipping -0.84% as hefty declines were registered in energy, materials, industrials, and financials.
  • China data round disappoints. – Retail sales down, Growth slowdown, Industrial Production weaker and investment growth also missed expectations. – The data round for China highlighted the impact of virus developments and added to the US inflation miss that left investors scaling back tapering concerns as soon as next week’s policy meeting.
  • British inflation surged last month to its highest level since March 2012, i.e. 3.2% y/y.
  • Fitch said that numerous sectors could be exposed to heightened credit risk if China’s No.2 property developer were to default, although the overall impact on the banking sector would be manageable. – Evergrande – fell for the 3rd consecutive day, losing as much as 5.1% to their lowest since January 2014.
  • Amazon to hire 125,000 people in advance of the holiday shopping season.
  • Apple unveiled an array of new hardware offerings.
  • Chevron to triple its modest spending on green energy by 2028.
  • The JPY strengthened as risk aversion picked up and USDJPY dropped back to 109.59.
  • The EUR and GBP are little changed against the Dollar – EURUSD just over the 1.18 mark and Cable at 1.3823.
  • USOil supported above $70.40, on a larger than expected drawdown in crude oil stocks in the United States.
  • Gold jumped initially to 1,808 but is currently back to the 1800 floor, which it hit on prospects for lower interest rates.
Today: There is a lot on today’s calendar, including Canadian Inflation, US August Industrial Production, Import and Export prices and September Empire State index.

2021-09-15_09-56-34-1024x848.jpg

Biggest Mover @ (06:30 GMT) USA30 dipped to 34,501 from 35,000. Currently the asset sustains above 34560 however BB extends lower on the daily basis with RSI at 39 and slipping and MACD turning negative implying an increase of the negative bias in themedium term. Daily ATR 269.9.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Date : 16th September 2021.

Market update – September 16 – Oil spikes to $72.50.


Oil-barrels-1-696x499.jpg
Market News
 
  • European bond markets already underperformed yesterday, after a jump in UK inflation and as markets continue to evaluate last week’s ECB move. The US Treasury rate is down, but yields in Australia and New Zealand jumped.
  • Solid data on industrial production and a big bounce in the Empire State manufacturing index, along with weaker than expected trade prices, contributed to the improved outlook. The USA500 bounced 0.85%, with the USA100 0.82% firmer, while the USA30 was up 0.68%. The JPN225 lost -0.75%, while GER30 and UK100 futures are up 0.08% and down -0.02% respectively, which suggests a cautious start to the session.
  • Data: New Zealand Q2 GDP data much stronger than expected, Australia’s employment report highlights lockdown impact & Japan’s trade data, which showed a huge deficit, as export growth slowed, also added to the negative risk backdrop. Canada’s CPI rose to a 4.1% pace in August from the 3.7% growth rate (y/y, nsa) in July.
  • Tech shares got a solid push from Microsoft which announced a boost to quarterly dividends and an increase in share buybacks.
  • The JPY strengthened and USDJPY declined to 109.20.
  • The EUR and GBP declined against a largely stronger USD, which was only beaten by the JPY.
  • USOil spiked to $72.84, albeit from a further reduction in stockpiles, which helped lift the indexes. In the European open it gapped down slightly at $72.38.
  • Gold down for a 2nd consecutive day. Currently at $1,784.
Today: Today’s data calendar will be closely tracked, with weekly jobless claims and the Philly index on tap, though none of the reports should impact the outlook on near term Fed policy. The August retail sales report is the highlight.

2021-09-16_09-37-42-1024x831.jpg

Biggest Mover @ (06:30 GMT) USOIL rallied to $72.84. Fast MAs flattened implying to short term correction, howveer the outlook holds positive as RSI is at 71 and MACD lines way above neutral zone and extending hgher. ATR (Daily) at 1.69 and ATR (H1) at 0.34.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Date : 20th September 2021.

Market Update – September 20 – USD & Yields Bid, Stocks Sink – It’s FOMC Week.


daily-market-update-696x364.png
Market News
 
  • USD (USDIndex 93.25) third day higher (20 day high) after strong close on Friday. CAD & CHF biggest fallers Friday – AUD Shorts at 18-month high.
  • Yields rallied too on Friday – higher again this morning (10yr closed at 1.37%), pushing 1.375% currently.
  • Equities tanked Friday, and FUTS are lower following a weak Asian session with Japan, China, Korea & Taiwan all closed (Evergrande down 19% to 11 year low as default becomes real). Chinese regulators now looking a the wider real estate market. (USA500 -40 (-0.91%) at 4433. USA500.F 4385. (Tech giants down around 2% – FB hardest hit -2.24%) on large volumes too. Robinhood +1.00% (ARK invested $14.7 million).
  • VIX +over 5% to 23.12
  • USOil down $1.20 and third day lower) to $71.25 after rejecting $73.00 last week.
  • Gold finding support at $1750 remains pressured on rising Yields and strong dollar, next support at $1730 and resistance at $1788.
Overnight UK house price data from Rightmove showed prices up 5.8% y/y, up from 5.6% y/y in the previous month. German PPI inflation much stronger than expected +1.5% vs 0.8% as price increases and supply chain problems continue.

European Open – The December 10-year Bund future is up 24 ticks, outperforming versus Treasury futures, which are also higher though. Bunds, which were under pressure on Friday amid reports suggesting internal inflation projections, saw yields moving higher, but risk aversion picked up again over the weekend as markets eye virus developments and China’s growth outlook. DAX and FTSE 100 are down -0.6% and -0.4% respectively, while U.S. futures are also in the red, with a nearly 1% decline in the Dow Jones leading the way. In FX markets both EUR and Sterling declined against a stronger dollar, leaving EURUSD at 1.1713 and Cable at 1.3700. USDJPY cremains capped by 110.00 and trades at 109.88

Central banks will be in focus this week, first and foremost of course the Fed, but in Europe, the BoE, the SNB and Norges Bank also set policy this week. That will likely see investors holding back at least until the Fed decision is out of the way. Today’s data calendar is also pretty quiet. UK house price data from Rightmove showed prices up 5.8% y/y, up from 5.6% y/y in the previous month. German PPI inflation much stronger than expected +1.5% vs 0.8% as price & supply chain problems continue.

Today  Canadian Elections, ECB’s Schnabel

2021-09-20_09-42-05.jpg

Biggest Mover @ (06:30 GMT) AUDUSD (-0.59%) continued last weeks decline and the rejection of 0.7400, earlier in the month. Trades at 0.7230, next major support 0.7225 and 0.7200. Faster MA’s aligned lower, MACD signal line and histogram below 0 line and declining. RSI 27 and OS zone, Stochs OS zone from Friday. H1 ATR 0.0010, Daily ATR 0.0060.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Date : 21st September 2021.

Market Update – September 21 – Evergrande worries weigh.

 
daily-market-update-696x364.png

Market News
 
  • USD (USDIndex 93.17) holds gains but down from 20 day high at 93.43. CAD recovers after Trudeau gets minority majority and 3rd term.
  • Yields collapsed yesterday (10yr down to 1.309% from 1.37% on Friday.)
  • Equities tanked globally, Evergrande worries persist. (USA500 -75 (-1.7%) at 4357. USA500.F ticks higher 4375. Some recovery into close was evident & Tuesday calm is following Monday’s carnage. (Tech giants down around 3% – TSLA hardest hit -3.86%). DAX worst of majors -2.3%. Nikkei down 2%. China, Taiwan & S. Korea still closed. VIX spiked to 26.80, highest since May.
  • USOil breached under $70.00 yesterday to $69.69, since recovering to $70.50.
  • Gold tested down to $1742, recovered $1750, trades at $1763 now.
Overnight – RBA minutes  nothing new – Delta variant has “delayed, but not derailed, the recovery”, the economy will “bounce back”, “conditions for rate rise will not be met until 2024”. AUD back to 0.7275, AUDJPY up to 79.75 from test of 79.00 yesterday.

European Open – December 10-yr Bund future unchanged on the day, US futures slightly lower. In Europe, Riksbank kicks off this week’s round of central bank meetings, which include Norges Bank, BoE & SNB on Thursday. There is also news from central banks in Japan, Brazil, Hungary, Indonesia, Norway, the Philippines, South Africa, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan & Turkey this week.

However, FOMC will take centre stage & while stock markets seem to be stabilising after yesterday’s rout, volatility is likely to remain high ahead of tomorrow’s announcement DAX and FTSE 100 futures are up 0.4% and 0.6% respectively, while a 0.5% rise in the Dow Jones is leading a pick up in U.S. futures. In FX markets both EUR and pound gained ground as the dollar struggled with the strengthening of risk appetite. EURUSD is at 1.1735 and Cable at 1.3675. USDJPY dropped to 109.30 yesterday recovering to 109.56 now.

Today – Riksbank rate decision, US housing starts & building permits, ECB’s de Guindos
 
2021-09-21_09-53-45.jpg


Biggest Mover @ (06:30 GMT) CADJPY (+0.85%) Trudeau result lifts CAD. From 87.00 on Friday to under 85.00 Monday and back to 86.00 now. Faster MA’s aligned higher, MACD signal line and histogram below 0 line but rallying. RSI 60 and rising. H1 ATR 0.170, Daily ATR 0.70.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Date : 22nd September 2021.

Market Update – September 22 – No Turnaround Tuesday.


eu_update_1200x628-e1567669197104-696x339.png Trading Leveraged Products is risky
Market News
 
  • USD (USDIndex 93.25) holds gains, Evergrande will pay some local debt on Thursday, but major doubts remain. Strong Housing data helped USD. AUD recovers lifting NZD, JPY slips post BOJ. CAD holds gains. $3.5bln infra. bill goes to Senate, Biden doubles climate crisis investment.
  • Yields moved two ticks higher (10yr closed at 1.32%) trade at 1.33% now.
  • Equities remain weak, Evergrande worries persist. (USA500 -3 (-0.08%) at 4354. USA500.F flat at 4358. No Tuesday turnaround. ; Dow -0.15%, Nasdaq +0.22%. Nikkei & China down VIX cools to 23.42.
  • USOil continues to recover broke $71.00 earlier – inventories to come later today.
  • Gold also recovers to $1780 but remains shy of key resistance at $1788.
Overnight – BOJ – no change – if anything a more Dovish outlook ” economy picking up as a trend, although it remained in a severe state due to the impact of the pandemic.” No sign of tapering any time soon. AUD back to 0.7250, AUDJPY up to 79.50. Evergrande will only pay local bond holders tomorrow but that was enough to ease concerns, at least for now. PBOC injected more funds into the local credit market. FT report there are enough empty apartments (new & unsold) in China to house 90 million people (30 million Chinese families) …-FT

European Open
 – December 10-yr Bund future down -22 ticks, underperforming versus Treasury futures. In FX markets both EUR & GBP corrected against USD, leaving EURUSD at 1.1718 & Cable at 1.3647. USDJPY recovered to 109.56 from 109.10 pre-BOJ. Risks from China & realization global supply chains will take longer to recover from Covid disruptions (BBG report chip shortage getting worse, lead time now 21 weeks, Honda in Japan working at 40% of capacity for 2 mths) have seen investors scaling back tapering concerns & we expect Fed to stick with a cautious wait and see stance for now, which should help keep stock markets underpinned.

Today – US Existing Home Sales, FOMC rate decision & Chair Powell press conference, more new supply from UK & Germany.

2021-09-22_09-51-54.jpg

Biggest Mover @ (06:30 GMT) CADJPY (+0.65%) The oscillations continue capped at 86.00 and back to 85.00 yesterday trades at 85.75 now. Faster MA’s aligned higher, MACD signal line and histogram below 0 line but rallying. RSI 61 and rising. H1 ATR 0.150, Daily ATR 0.695.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Date : 23rd September 2021.

Market Update – September 23 – FOMC talk November Taper.


daily-market-update-696x364.png
Market News
 

  • USD (USDIndex 93.52) rallies following FOMC – Taper possible from November, first rate rises now brought forward into 2022, Evergrande due to pay local bondholders today, shares rise in HK.
  • Yields flattened as 5yr up 30 yr down – (10yr closed higher at 1.336%) trade at 1.329% now.
  • Equities rallied over 1%, sentiment rises but Evergrande worries persist (HSBC, UBS & Blackrock – exposed to a total of $875m). USA500 +41 (+0.95%) at 4395. USA500.F flat at 4396. Dow +1.00%, Nasdaq +1.02%. Nikkei (closed) & China higher. VIX tumbles to 21.62.
  • USOil continues to recover broke $72.00 – inventories in line (-3.5m barrels). GS talk of $85+ if there is a cold winter
  • Gold dropped to $1760 but has recovered to $1764.

Overnight – FED Highlights – We now have 9 forecasts of a 2022 rate hike instead of 7, with 9 instead of 11 now expecting no change. From the dots, it’s clear that the large majority of policymakers want to start raising rates in late-2022 & get back to near-normal by 2024. GDP, saw trimmings for the Fed’s 2021 central tendency to 5.8%-6.0% from 6.8%-7.3%, 2021 headline and core PCE chain price central tendency boosts to 4.0%-4.3% and 3.6%-3.8% respectively. 2021 jobless rate central tendency boosts to 4.6%-4.8%. POWELL  “substantial further progress” has been met for inflation, but there is more uncertainty surrounding the maximum employment goal. Powell noted a split among the FOMC whether employment has improved satisfactorily. He thinks it has “all but been met”. Tapering “could end around the middle of next year.”

AUD PMI’s stronger than expected but remain very weak (Services only 44.9).

European Open – The December 10-year Bund future is down 21 ticks, the 30-year future meanwhile has moved higher with Treasury futures. DAX & FTSE 100 futures are up 0.5% with risk appetite strengthen post-Fed and amid easing concern on Evergrande, at least for now. In FX markets both EUR and pound strengthened against a steady to lower dollar. Investors are likely to remain cautious ahead of the local central bank announcements from BoE, SNB and Norges Bank today. EURUSD at 1.1715 & Cable at 1.3653. USDJPY recovered to 109.86.

BoE Preview:
 Expected to keep policy settings on hold, but minutes will be watched carefully especially with 2 new MPC members – Catherine Mann (Centrist) & Huw Pill (Hawkish). The central bank already signaled a more hawkish outlook on rates at the previous meeting, which to a certain extent pre-empted the jump in inflation and tightness in labour markets that were the key message of last week’s economic reports. However, retail sales numbers were pretty dismal & consumers are facing higher taxes as well as a phased out wage support, with the phasing out of the furlough scheme a key factor for the BoE’s policy decision going forward. On top of this the country is facing an energy crisis that is having unexpected knock on effects also for the food sector. The central scenario at the moment is for the labour market to remain tight & wage growth strong, as companies are increasingly forced to up wage offers to attract staff. Against that background, the first rate hike could come in H1 2022, depending on virus developments & how the energy market gets through the winter.

Today  SNB, Norges Bank (rate hike likley), BoE, CBRT & SARB rate decisions, Eurozone, UK & US flash PMIs, US Weekly Claims, Canadian Retail Sales, ECB’s Elderson.

2021-09-23_09-54-58.jpg

Biggest Mover @ (06:30 GMT) CADJPY (+0.38%) 3 days in row! Breaks two day high t 86.00 and rallied to 86.32 now. Faster MA’s aligned higher, MACD signal line and histogram broke 0 line yesterday, RSI 72.96 OB but still rising. H1 ATR 0.150, Daily ATR 0.695.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Date : 24th September 2021.

Market Update – September 24 – Yields Leap higher.


ANALYSIS-LONDON-696x365.png
Market News
 
  • USD (USDIndex 93.10) weakened to Wednesday lows (92.94) post BOE, SNB, Norges Bank, CBRT, weak PMI’s & Claims and Evergrande missing interest payment deadline – AND no comments from the company. US Federal budget – stand-off continues.
  • Yields stormed higher overnight (10yr closed higher at 1.336%) jumped 10bps to 1.434% in Asian trades (highest since March 2020)
  • Equities rallied again over 1%, sentiment rises but Evergrande worries persist (HSBC, UBS & Blackrock – exposed to a total of $875m). Total offshore exposure – $20bln of the $300bln. USA500 +53 (+1.21%) at 4448. USA500.F lower at 4433. Dow +1.48%. NIKE & Costco beat Earnings. Asian mixed – Nikkei +2%, China lower. VIX tumbles again to 20.50
  • USOil continues to recover breaches $73.00 – GS talk of $85+ if there is a cold winter.
  • Gold dropped to $1737 (31 day low) has recovered to $1755 now.
Overnight – NZD trade balance tanked, JPY CPI & Manu & Services PMI all missed, UK Consumer Confidence halved (-13 vs -7).

European Open – December 10-yr Bund future down -24 ticks, alongside broad losses in US futures. Norway kicked off rate hikes in Europe, BoE is also inching towards reduced stimulus which together with Fed tapering hints this week seems to have triggered a market shift. Stocks weren’t too spooked by the yields rise, but uncertainty over Evergrande’s USD coupon payments and lingering concern that China’s property boom could implode and the growth engine running out of steam has seen equity markets turning more cautious once again. DAX future currently down -0.1%, FTSE 100 future little changed. FX markets flat – Sterling holds up, JPY weaker – EURUSD at 1.1732 & Cable at 1.3725 USDJPY recovered to 110.50.

Today 
– German IFO, US New Home Sales, FedSpeak Williams, Mester, Clarida, Powell, George, ECB’s Elderson, BoE’s Tenreyro.

2021-09-24_09-49-02.jpg

Biggest Mover @ (06:30 GMT) GBPJPY (+0.22%) 3 day rally from summer low at 149.40 continues after Hawkish BOE. spiked to 151.70 earlier. Faster MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram broke 0 line yesterday, RSI 74.50 OB but still rising. H1 ATR 0.150, Daily ATR 0.695.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.


Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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The central bank already signaled a more hawkish outlook on rates at the previous meeting, which to a certain extent pre-empted the jump in inflation and tightness in labour markets that were the key message of last week’s economic reports. However, retail sales numbers were pretty dismal & consumers are facing higher taxes as well as a phased out wage support, with the phasing out of the furlough scheme a key factor for the BoE’s policy decision going forward. On top of this the country is facing an energy crisis that is having unexpected knock on effects also for the food sector. The central scenario at the moment is for the labour market to remain tight & wage growth strong, as companies are increasingly forced to up wage offers to attract staff. Against that background, the first rate hike could come in H1 2022, depending on virus developments & how the energy market gets through the winter.Today – SNB, Norges Bank (rate hike likley), BoE, CBRT & SARB rate decisions, Eurozone, UK & US flash PMIs, US Weekly Claims, Canadian Retail Sales, ECB’s Elderson.Biggest Mover @ (06:30 GMT) CADJPY (+0.38%) 3 days in row! Breaks two day high t 86.00 and rallied to 86.32 now. Faster MA’s aligned higher, MACD signal line and histogram broke 0 line yesterday, RSI 72.96 OB but still rising. H1 ATR 0.150, Daily ATR 0.695.Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • I'm gonna pull a crazyCzarina and reply to a long dead post ... One sure thing about trading forums - The great questions never get an answer.  Ask  even the greatest posters a great question... silence, no nothin’, not even crickets.          First a few comments about Elliott Wave Wave Theory is a ‘science’ of socionomics.  Socionomics is about how societal ideas ‘ideally’ or typically unfold -  wave 1 is the early adapters, wave 3 is broad collective acceptance, wave 5 is continuing valuation narratives but with narrowing collective assessment of actual value... with all kinds of ‘ideal’ sub patterns... Socionomics starts with a simple observation: For lots of issues, how people FEEL influences how they will BEHAVE.  (Equally true = How people BEHAVE influences how they will FEEL... but that’s for another topic) Anyways... Elliott Wave theory is an attempt to apply socionomics  to trading   - and  yes analyst75 “theory” is the key word.  Imo, it’s a jump too far.   First, price is not a good metric for socionomics.... especially across decades when currencies are being viciously  'corrupted'.   And practically, socionomics does not transfer over to trading nearly to the degree Ellioticians would like.   It simply does not deliver enough of those ‘ideal’ sub patterns because  crowds of traders’ behaviors and ‘feelings’ about pricing are not sufficient equivalents of broader collective behaviors / socionomic waves... ESPECIALLY as time frames shorten... (ie waves may appear to ‘fractal’ down ... but they really don’t.)   If you’re going to use EW to trade, probably the most important point you can acknowledge is that 5 wave patterns are EXCEPTIONS to normal trading crowd behavior ie  the best thing a 5 wave pattern indicates is that corrective patterns will soon resume.  I’ve described it differently in other posts*  ... but basically, at any given point in time it is possible to reasonably project that ANY freakin wave ‘count’ / pattern will enfold.   It is just as reasonable to project that a nice 5 wave completion will go on to a nice 7 or 11 or 17 or whatever wave count as it is to project that the market will now have a ‘trend’ change.  At the end of any nice 3 wave corrective pattern, either projecting a huge 5 wave pattern unfolding in the other direction or projecting a long flat congestive pattern or another 3 wave correction pattern... or... all are equally reasonable.  Or, a pretty wave 1, 2, and 3 doesn’t not mean a pretty wave 5 will unfold.  Ie it’s just as reasonable to count it over and project that the next sequence will be corrective or a 5 wave impulsive move in the opposite direction. etc etc       ... to get back to the unanswered question - So what do you propose as an alternate? Long ago I read Hurst.  In a short section of his book he mentioned it.  It didn’t sink in.  Then one day it really hit me.  There is no Elliott wave sequence or any other ‘technical’ price pattern that cannot be better explained via ‘summation of cycles’ ...   * fun example can be seen by searching for 'trading chaos by bill williams' thread on t2w ... TL is so special we don't even allow links to other trading forums? ... other snarky EW comments at http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/topic/7555-do-you-use-the-elliott-wave-to-trade/page/2/?tab=comments#comment-146022      
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