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Date : 30th June 2020.

USDIndex – Is the trend still down?

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USDIndex – The Dollar has strengthened after home sales came out better than expected, at 44.3% from the 19.7% predicted and higher than -21.8% seen last month, boosting also stock markets. The US returned to the positive with S&P +1.47%, NASDAQ +1.2% and Dow Jones +2.32%.

It looks like the USDIndex’s resumption attempt in the second half of June was not as effective as expected, with safe haven demand falling after the May lockdown. As a result of the latter, the US Dollar seems to be based on more internal economic factors. Therefore, this week we must pay special attention to US economic data. Today, the Chicago PMI index numbers are due alongside consumer confidence and Fed President Powell’s testimony, and tomorrow the ADP employment numbers and the PMI-ISM index will highlight US economic calendar this week , Tthe non-farm payrolls – which have moved to Thursday because Friday is the National Day and the market is closed.

However, the USDIndex trend still has significant obstacles in the uptrend. A potential bearish flag trend could be spotted which could be the continuation of the downtrend if it is confirmed with a strong pullback. That is still below the 200-EMA and followed by Golden cross (50-EMA and 200-EMA), all of which are in line with momentum indicators such as MACD that are still in the negative.

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Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Chayut Vachirathanakit
Market Analyst – HF Educational Office – Thailand
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Date : 1st July 2020.

 

US Data – ADP, PMIs & Vaccine News.

 

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EURUSD, H1

 

US ADP reported private payrolls rose 2.369 million in June. Also, May was revised sharply higher, by 5.825 million to a 3.065 million increase (was -2.760 million). April’s -19.409 million was a record plunge. Jobs in the goods production sector increased 457,000, with construction jobs up 394,000. Service sector employment increased 1.912 million, with gains of 961,000 in leisure/hospitality, 283,000 in education/health, and 151,000 in professional/business services. A robust private payrolls. The ADP climb beats the modest improvement in the continuing and initial claims data for the period, but undershoots the bigger sales, sentiment, and output gains in other measures, and is in line with the payroll gain expected for tomorrow’s jobs report. ADP gains were fairly evenly dispersed across increases of 873,000 for large companies, 559,000 for medium companies, and 937,000 for small companies.

 

US final June Markit manufacturing rose to 49.8 (was 49.6 in the preliminary) from May’s 39.8. It is a fourth month of contraction and was at 50.6 a year ago. But the weakness is abating from the 36.1 record low from April amid re-openings of the economy. The 10-point surge in the index was a record jump, and it is now the highest reading since February. Output climbed to 47.5 from May’s 34.4, with new orders also moving higher.

 

US equity markets have opened in positive territory, rebounding from early losses on the futures market following reports of positive results on a vaccine from Pfizer and BioNTech.

 

EURUSD pushes towards 1.1250 following a dip to 1.1184 earlier, USDJPY pivots around 107.50, down from Asian session highs at 108.06 and the USA500 trades at 3115 and highs of the day. FOMC Minutes due at 18:00 GMT.

 

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

 

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

 

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

 

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

 

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission. 

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Date : 8th July 2020.

EURUSD – The remainder of the week.

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EURUSD, H4 – Even though the weekly framework is still sideways, the overall view of this pair is still considered positive. However, due to the strength of the USD yesterday, the pair pushed back to below 1.3000, after it initially propped up following the European Economic Report yesterday . Overall, the results were lower than expected. German industrial production came out at 7.8% from the forecast of 11%. France had a trade deficit more than expected at -7.1 billion, while Italian retail sales came out better than expected.

Throughout June the pair was in the range of 1.1200-1.1350. In the H4-chart it has been being supported by the 50-period EMA line since yesterday. From last week we began to see higher lows as well as new highs, suggesting that it is likely to see the pair test the same high again at 1.1350. The MACD is still in the positive territory, but if we see the pair breaking through the 50-period-EMA, it could be seen that this pair will come down to test the key support zone at the 200-period EMA , which clashes with the 1.1200 low.

However, in larger time frames like the weekly one, it can be seen that the EURUSD is already trying for the 6th consecutive week to pass the major Resistance level at the 200-week EMA or higher, but it looks to be stuck between the 50-week and the 200-week EMA. Hence any pullback away from the 200-week EMA could see the asset retesting the 50-week EMA line if the 1.1200 fails to provide Support.

The economic calendar this week is quiet. The key data from the EUR side today is the European Commission’s economic growth forecast. On Thursday, there is the European group meeting Including numbers using the US unemployment privileges, and on Friday, US PPI numbers will be announced.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Chayut Vachirathanakit
Market Analyst – HF Educational Office – Thailand

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Date : 9th July 2020.

14th consecutive decline in US claims.

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After it pared declines as a mostly risk-on session in Asia, led by a continued rally in Chinese stocks, gave way to a less certain session in European markets, Dollar was little changed after the slightly higher than consensus rise in jobless claims. EURUSD turned slightly lower to 1.1335 from 1.1340, while USDJPY was pretty much unchanged, bouncing between 107.17-107.40.

US initial jobless claims dropped -99k to 1,314k in the week ended July 4, close to forecasts. The prior report for June 27 was revised to show a -69k decline to 1,413k (was 1,427k). This is the 14th week of decline from the record 6,867k from March 27. It brings the 4-week moving average to 1,437.25k from 1,500.25k (was 1,503.75k). Continuing claims declined -698k to 18,062k in the week ended June 27 versus 18,760k (was 19,290k) in the June 20 week. And continuing claims are down from a May 9 high of 24,912k. The insured unemployment rate fell to 12.4% from 12.9% (was 13.2%).

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Today‘s improvement was encouraging, though claims declines overall continue to fall short of the rebound we’re seeing in nonfarm payrolls, as well as the increases into the summer for most available supply and demand measures for the economy, though with some restraint in gains recently from pull-backs in re-openings.

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Treasury yields are inching slightly lower, even as equity futures rally. There was no real impact from the 14th consecutive decline in initial jobless claims. The 10-year yield is 1.8 bps richer at 0.646%, while the 2-year has dipped to 0.157%. Equity futures are now in the green, albeit barely for the USA30, while the USA100 is 0.6% firmer and the USA500 is up 0.2%.

Caution over the coronavirus, with another record increase in US cases, and concerns over the reopening process are dictating a lot of the trade.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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