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Date : 30th March 2020.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 30th March 2020.


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All major countries across the world are effectively locked down now as virus developments remain in focus, with ever bigger aid packages. The data this week especially from the US were highly infected by the pandemic. Hence, as disruptions from COVID-19 have begun to catch up to the soft data measures, the impact will likely be greater in the late-month measures of sentiment. Recession fears could be further escalated if we see any effect in the March US jobs.

Monday – 30 March 2020

  • Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (EUR, GMT 12:00) – The German HICP preliminary inflation for March is anticipated to decline at 1.4% y/y from 1.7% y/y.
  • Pending Home Sales (USD, GMT 14:00) – Pending home sales rebounded in January to 5.2% m/m, however, for February we could see a big -0.3% pull-back.

Tuesday – 31 March 2020

  • Manufacturing PMI (CNY, GMT 01:00) – The NBS Manufacturing PMI is expected to massively decline to 4.4 in March from 35.7, as a subsequence of the shut down after the lunar new year holiday.
  • Gross Domestic Product (GBP, GMT 06:00) – GDP is the economy’s most important figure. Q4’s GDP is expected to be unchanged at 0% q/q and 1.1% y/y.
  • Unemployment data (EUR, GMT 07:55) – The German unemployment rate in March is expected to have increased to 5.1% from 5.0%, while unemployment change is expected to have peaked to 30K from February’s drop to -10K.
  • Consumer Price Index (EUR, GMT 09:00) –HCPI inflation dropped back to 1.2% y/y in February from 1.4% y/y in the previous month, while core inflation actually moved up to 1.2% y/y from 1.1% y/y in January. This month’s core is expected unchanged, while HICP is anticipated lower at 0.8% y/y/.
  • Gross Domestic Product (CAD, GMT 12:30) – Canada GDP results for January are seen to be slowing down, at a monthly rate of 0.2% compared to 0.3% last month.
  • CB Consumer Confidence (USD, GMT 14:00) – The Conference Board Index is expected to have decreased to 121.0, compared to 130.7 in the previous month.

Wednesday – 01 April 2020
 

  • Caixin Manufacturing PMI (CNY, GMT 01:45) – The Caixin manufacturing PMI is expected to spike to 46.5 from 40.3 in February.
  • ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (USD, GMT 12:15) – The ADP Employment survey is seen at 216k for March compared to the 183K in February.
  • ISM Manufacturing PMI (USD, GMT 14:00) – The ISM index is expected to fall to 43.0 in March from 50.1 in February, compared to a 14-year high of 60.8 in August of 2018.
  • EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change (USOIL, GMT 14:30)

Thursday – 02 April 2020
 

  • Trade balance (USD, GMT 12:30) – The US trade deficit narrowed -6.7% to -$45.3 bln in January following the 11.0% December jump to -$48.6 bln. February’s one is expected to widen further.

Friday – 03 April 2020
 

  • Retail Sales (AUD, GMT 00:30) – February’s Retail sales could be improved by 0.4%, following a 0.3% January loss.
  • Event of the Week – Non-Farm Payrolls (USD, GMT 12:30) – A -100k March nonfarm payroll drop is anticipated, following 273k increases in both February and January. This is based on assumptions such as the -20k factory jobs drop in March, and a 47k boost from assumed Census hiring as this temporary job count starts to climb more rapidly. The jobless rate should rise to 3.8% from 3.5%, as COVID-19 disruptions start to take their toll.
  • ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (USD, GMT 14:00) – The ISM-NMI index is expected to fall to 49.0 from 57.3 in February, versus a recent low of 53.5 in September of 2019 and a 13-year high of 61.2 in September of 2018. The “soft data” measures are finally starting to show a hit from coronavirus disruptions and the emerging OPEC price war, and these hits should be bigger for the late-March reports than the early-March reports.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Date : 31st March 2020.

Dead cat Bounce!


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Dead cat Bounce! A new term? Not really but definitely something that we haven’t seen for more than a generation.

In general, investors throughout the years invented this term as a follow up to a market free fall. By definition, the “Dead cat Bounce” is simply a market phenomenon that translates into temporary small and short-lived rebounds of an asset’s price within a prolonged period of downside. This term is based on the idiom that “even a dead cat will bounce if it falls far enough and fast enough“. Hence in the financial market it is said that even if an asset falls with a considerable speed, it would rebound as even a dead cat would bounce. However, every time there is a rebound, the overall initial trend is then anticipated to resume, bringing the bearish influence back into play.

In addition, the phenomenon can occur in any market, yet is particularly prevalent in equity markets. It is often the case that it is considered a continuation pattern.

Why are we raising this topic now? This March, was the first time after Black Monday 1987 that we have seen the worst intraday selloffs in stock markets. Since February 20th, the stock market entered an aggressive bear market with a few days of an absolute rally. An example was the 13th of March in which the stock market roared back in the biggest one-day rally since 2008 after its worst single-day crash in 33 years just a day before. This is the classic dead cat bounce.

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If you closely observe stock market behaviour in March you will notice that there is a dramatic decline, with a number of days when the market reversed some of its losses, but failed to take the bait, and eventually fell back down again. This is a situation of portfolio managers wanting to sell some of their positions and when they see some strength in the market, decided to unload. This is what we call a “dead cat bounce” after it falls from high enough. Remember however that not every correction/reversal can be interpreted as a dead cat bounce.

Theoretically this term is defined as the term in which,
 

  • A stock in a severe steep decline has a sharp bounce off the lows.
  • A small upward price movement in a bear market after which the market continues to fall.

Unfortunately, I need to highlight that there is not an easy way to determine in advance whether an upwards movement is a dead cat bounce which will eventually reverse quickly or whether it is a trend reversal. There is nothing easy in identifying the bottom of the market. However to a large extent a dead cat bounce is a retracement, in comparison to a reversal, i.e. it is temporary.

Dead cat bounce as a technical analysis tool and more precisely as a continuation pattern could be tradable from short-term or medium term traders. Having explained this phenomenon, a follow-up article will elaborate on how market participants can trade a dead cat bounce.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Date : 1st April 2020.

All eyes on Commodity Currencies.


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Asian stock markets are lower, while European and US equity index futures are showing losses of around 3%. Data out of Asia today were nothing short of dismal, showing manufacturing contracting across most of the region, highlighting the economic toll that virus-containing measures are having.

The main concern remains that the massive global stimulus measures simply won’t be fully effective while many economies remain in a state of lockdown of as-yet unknown duration.

Commodity currencies have come under pressure as the winds of risk aversion picked up again.The Canadian dollar was the main loser so far today , while it has remained under pressure with oil prices sinking back toward major-trend lows as crude storage facilities burst at the seems from excessive supplies.

USDCAD has gained up nearly 2% in making a 1.4230 high, though the pair so far has remained below yesterday’s peak at 1.4350. This is due to the fact that crude prices are down by over 65% year-to-date. This level of price decline in Canada’s principal export, while it sustains, marks a significant deterioration in the Canadian economy’s terms of trade. Given the glut of crude flooding the market, and given that supply is increasing as demand will remain weak for a historically protracted amount of time, Canadian Dollar is anticipated to remain apt to underperformance. The likes of the Norwegian krona, which like the Canadian dollar is an oil-price correlator, and many developing world currencies have also come under pressure.

From the technical perspective, USDCAD overall outlook remains positive with asset holding above all three daily SMAs since January, and momentum indicators positively configured. RSI at 59 recovery from a pullback last week, Stochastic rebound from oversold territory and MACD presents some decline of the bullish momentum but holds well above 0. That said, USDCAD revisiting its recent 17-year high at 1.4669 seems likely before long.

Intraday meanwhile, the rebound of USDCAD looks to run out of steam, however only a move below 1.4050 could suggest a reverse of the outlook.

AUDUSD tipped over 1% lower in making a 5-day low at 0.6064 amid weaker Gold prices (end-of-quarter flows). The Aussie still remains comfortably above the 17-year low that was seen on March 19th at 0.5507. The Kiwi dollar has also taken a tumble.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Date : 2nd April 2020.

FX Action – 2nd April 2020.


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A 10%-plus rebound in crude prices catalyzed gains in oil-correlating currencies, including the Canadian Dollar and Norwegian krona, and other commodity currencies, while helping give stock markets a lift after a sputtering session in Asia. The wake of ugly 6.6 mln surge in US jobless claims, which was about double the consensus forecast, weighed on global markets. US equities reversed lower as risk appetite eroded again, taking back earlier gains, while Aussie for example has more than given up intraday gains, with AUDUSD presently pushing on lows at 0.6019, down just over a big figure from the intraday high that was seen during the Sydney session.

The massive gain in initial claims, which followed a similarly hefty rise the previous week, was well anticipated but provided a timely reminder of what is to come.

USDCAD has dropped by over 0.6%, driven by a bid for the Canadian Dollar amid a 10%-plus oil price surge. The pair posted a low at 1.4079, though has so far remained above its Wednesday low at 1.4060. A Bloomberg report, citing sources with inside knowledge, said that China is moving forward with plans to buy oil for its emergency reserves. Beijing is reportedly aiming to build up a crude stockpile that would cover 90 days of net imports with the possibility of expanding this to 180 days. China is the world’s biggest oil importer and is taking advantage of the 60%-odd collapse in oil prices. USOIL prices posted a 6-day high at $22.55, but still remain down by just over 65% from the highs seen in early January. This level of price decline in Canada’s principal export, while it sustains, marks a significant deterioration in the Canadian economy’s terms of trade. Assuming that China’s buying spree won’t close this gap substantially, given the glut of crude flooding the market, and given that demand will remain weak for a historically protracted amount of time, CAD should remain apt to underperformance. In the medium term, USDCAD could retest its recent 17-year high at 1.4669.

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Both the AUDUSD and NZDUSD rallied, although both remained within their respective Wednesday ranges against the US Dollar.

USDJPY and most yen crosses, in particular those involving a commodity currency, have gained concomitantly with the improvement in risk appetite, which saw the yen’s safe haven premium unwind some.

GBP is again ranking among the currency outperformers today, gaining over 0.7% versus the Dollar and by over 0.8% against both the Euro and Yen on the day so far. Market narratives have been pointing to the impact of the Fed’s launching of a new “FIMA” facility (announced Tuesday) , which will start on April 6 and allow foreign central banks to obtain Dollars without selling Treasuries. This will run alongside the swap lines created with 14 central banks, and the two should ease strains in global dollar funding. This is seen as a particular positive for the Pound, given the UK’s recently proven vulnerability to global liquidity shortages, with its large financial sector and dependence on foreign investment inflows (equivalent to about 4% of GDP) to finance its large current account deficit.

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The Pound had underperformed even commodity currencies during the worst of the recent global liquidity crunch, which ran from about March 10th through to March 19th, before measures by the Fed and other central banks provided a mitigating impact. Sterling lost about 10% of its value in trade-weighted terms over this period, and tumbled by 12% versus the Dollar, hitting a 35-year low, and an 11-year low against the Euro. The worst now looks to be over for the Pound, especially with markets starting to bet that the UK will ask the EU for an extension of its post-Brexit transition membership of the Union’s customs union and single market. Neither the UK nor EU has the resources to conduct detailed trade negotiations under the prevailing circumstance of the coronavirus crisis. This is seen as Sterling positive as it will avoid the possibility of the UK leaving the transition period and shifting a big chunk of its trade onto less favourable WTO trade terms.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Date : 3rd April 2020.

Inured to the bad news.


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The markets are relatively inured to the bad news, as the weekly jobless claims have already given us the increasingly ugly news on the labor market. US equities are modestly weaker amid risk-off sentiment and an employment report that revealed a much larger than anticipated -701k plunge in March and a jump in the jobless rate to 8.7% from 7.0%.

Meanwhile, the Dollar showed mixed reaction to the employment report. These numbers were worse than expected, though shouldn’t really be a surprise given the more timely surge in jobless claims figures seen the past two weeks. USDJPY initially fell to 108.25 before turning back up again at 108.60, while EURUSD fell to 1.0780 from 1.0800. USDCHF extended gains up to 0.9794, reversing nearly 76% of the decline seen since March 20.

EURUSD concurrently carved out a 9-day low at 1.0774, making this the 5th consecutive day of lower lows while extending the correction from the 17-day high that was seen last Friday at 1.1148. The pair still remains above the low seen during the recent Dollar liquidity crunch, at 1.0637, before the Fed and other central banks stepped in to try and satiate the demand for cash dollars. Its overall outlook meanwhile, remains negative, with the asset extending well below all 3 daily SMAs and with its daily momentum indicators negatively configured. Hence the Dollar bid looks to hold.

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The March establishment and household employment surveys captured more of the early layoffs than the markets had assumed, with massive declines for payrolls and hours-worked, big drops for civilian employment, the labor force, and the participation rate, and the start of the upward march for the jobless rate. Wages were also firm, likely due to the concentration of job loss among lower-paid workers.

The specifics: March nonfarm payrolls dropped -701k after February’s 275k increase (was 273k), which ended a 9.5 year run of employment gains. The employment in the goods-producing sector fell -54k from the 57k (was 61k) rise. Service sector jobs slumped -659k after rising 185k (was 167k) in February. Leisure/hospitality jobs plunged -459k from the prior 45k (was 51k) increase. Education/health care jobs were down -76k versus a 65k (was 54k) increase previously. Government jobs edged up 12k, with 18k added to the Federal payroll. The unemployment rate jumped to 4.4% (4.38%) from 3.5%. Average hourly earnings rose 0.4% versus the prior 0.3% gain.

The weakness captured in the mid-month March jobs report may prompt downward revisions in the Q1 GDP estimate, on the assumption that the Quarter may capture more of the economic plunge than previously assumed.

Beyond the timing of Q1 versus Q2 growth figures, however, the surprise in today‘s report is more the degree to which the surveys captured late-March events than the magnitude of declines, since the bulk of the jobs loss will still be captured in the surveys for April.

Since the Fed is already in maximum easing mode, it is unlikely that reports like today‘s will alter the monetary policy path.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Date : 6th April 2020.

Events to Look Out For Next Week


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It’s a holiday shortened week ahead as most markets will be closed on Friday for the Easter holidays, however the novel coronavirus remains the focal point. The rapid upswing in market volatility seen in March should continue in April as governments, central banks, households and businesses further adapt to the ongoing pandemic and uncertain outlook. Hence this will be another week of increased attention to the data which will incorporate more of the impacts of the global shutdowns and will help start to quantify the severity of the economic impacts amid still very uncertain times.

Monday – 06 April 2020
 

  • OPEC Meeting (USOIL, GMT 19:00) – Azerbaijan’s energy ministry said that a meeting of the OPEC+ group of oil producers is planned for April 6 and will be held as a video conference.

Tuesday – 07 April 2020

  • Interest Rate Decision and Monetary Policy Statement (AUD, GMT 04:30) – Positioning in 30-day interbank cash rate futures this week implied a 60% chance for the RBA to cut its benchmark interest rate to zero from 0.25% at the upcoming policy meeting, which is up from odds of 31% for such a move that were being discounted just over a week ago. However in the March RBA minutes, they provided colour around the 25bp rate cut and the adoption of QE but they made clear that there is no appetite for negative interest rates.
  • JOLTS Job Openings (USD, GMT 14:00) – JOLTS define Job Openings as all positions that have not been filled on the last business day of the month. February’s JOLTS job openings is expected to fall slightly at 6.476M, following the 6.963M in January.
  • Ivey PMI (CAD, GMT 15:00) – A survey of purchasing managers, the Index provides an overview of the state of business conditions in the country.

Wednesday – 08 April 2020
 

  • EIA weekly Crude Oil Stocks Change (USOIL, GMT 14:30)
  • FOMC Minutes (USD, GMT 18:00) – The FOMC Minutes report provides the FOMC Members’ opinions regarding the US economic outlook and any views regarding future rate hikes. In the last FOMC statement, on March 15, the FOMC slashed rates 100 bps to 0% – 0.25% in an emergency move, getting ahead of the curve.

Thursday – 09 April 2020
 

  • ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts (EUR, GMT 11:30) – The ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts provide information with regards to the policymakers’ rationale behind their decisions. At the same time, in the last meeting, ECB announced a EUR 750 bln pandemic emergency program (PEPP) and introduced new QE measures worth EUR 120 bln and additional loan programs, while they left rates unchanged at the March policy meeting.
  • Producer Price Index (USD, GMT 12:30) – The Headline PPI is expected to decline to a -0.2% March PPI headline with a 0.2% increase in the core index. The continued energy price pull-back through the month likely weighed on the headline.
  • Employment Change (CAD, GMT 12:30) – Employment change is seen spiking to 10.0k in the number of employed people in March, compared to the spike at 30.3k in February. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 5.6%.
  • Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (USD, GMT 14:00) – The preliminary April Michigan sentiment reading is forecast at 95, up from the 89.1 in March.

Friday – 10 April 2020
 

  • Consumer Price Index (CNY, GMT 01:30) – The March’s Chinese CPI is expected to remain unchanged on a monthly and yearly basis.
  • Consumer Price Index and Core (USD, GMT 12:30) – The headline CPI has been estimated to a -0.2% March headline CPI drop with a 0.2% core price increase, following respective February readings of 0.1% and 0.2%. As with PPI, the headline inflation figures will be depressed well into 2020 from the OPEC price war, though the core figures will face divergent pressures that are partly downward due to diminished demand with COVID-19, but upward due to supply shortages that may prompt some erratic swings.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Date : 7th April 2020.

FX Update – April 7 – A wee bit more Risk.


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Trading Leveraged Products is risky

AUDUSD & GBPUSD, H1
The commodity currencies outperformed some more, as did many developing-world currencies amid a backdrop of rising stock and commodity markets. Equity markets are amid day two of a rally pinned on tentative signs that the global coronavirus infection and mortality rates might be near to peaking. The Fed’s decision to finance new “payroll protection” loans has also bolstered the US economic response plans. AUDUSD has rallied 1.7% in printing a one-week high at 0.6192, while AUDJPY has rallied by 1.4% in making a high at 67.38. The Aussie dollar is now up 3% from last Friday’s closing levels. The Kiwi and Canadian dollars are also up. USDCAD has dropped to an eight-day low at 1.4011. The Dollar, Yen and, to a lesser degree, the Swiss Franc, have continued to underperform most other currencies. The narrow trade-weighted USDIndex has declined by 0.6% in pegging a five-day low at 100.79, while EURUSD concurrently lifted by 0.7% in making a five-day high, at 1.0876. The pair is up by just over 1% from its Monday lows. The combination of risk-on positioning in markets and the Fed’s aggressive dollar liquidity provisions, which forms part of a crisis-era level of monetary accommodation, have been bearish tonic for the Dollar. Dollar underperformance saw USDJPY dip back under 109.00, though the Yen itself trader softer against most other currencies as its safe-haven premium is whittled down.

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Sterling dipped on the news that PM Johnson was moved to ICU and had received oxygen, although Downing Street stated that he was still conscience and that Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab will lead the UK government as long as Johnson is incapacitated. From lows of 1.2162 earlier, a weaker USD, has Cable rally over 170 pips to 1.2335. Next resistance is R2 and the upper Bollinger band around 1.2375, 1.2400 and then R3 at 1.2420. Support sits at 1.2300 and the Daily Pivot Point, a 50.0 Fibonacci level and 200hr moving average at 1.2250.

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Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Date : 8th April 2020.

April 8 – Europe and EUR update.


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Sentiment collapsed further in European session on the news that EU finance ministers failed to reach deal and also on the announcement from German institutes, which they estimated nearly 10% contraction in Q2, the sharpest decline since records began in 1970. This topped the concerns of pandemic and related shutdown of the economy.

EU leaders will meet again tomorrow. Discussions on how to finance a European wide response package to the pandemic have not yet found a compromise. Demands for Eurobonds clashing with the red lines against mutualising debt in countries such as Germany, which would make the introduction of new financing measures a lengthy affair even if officials were to agree to such a step. The southern European states (especially Italy) are keen to have debt mutualisation (“coronabonds”) as part of the package. The most likely outcome is a use of ESM funds to finance immediate aid measures, coupled with funds from the EU budget and the EIB investment bank to finance economic measures not just through the immediate crisis, but to kick start the recovery once lock downs have been lifted.

Last but not least for European economy, is the fact that ECB lowers collateral standards, to keep credit flowing. The central bank announced that it will temporarily lower standards for the collateral that banks can use to access ECB funds. The move is aimed at keeping credit flowing through the crisis and will also allow Greek debt to be used. Furthermore the haircut applied to collateral, which will allow banks to borrow more money against the same amount of collateral. As a result the ECB will take on more risk onto its own balance sheet, but the hope is that by strengthening banks’ access to funds the central bank can boost lending to households and businesses. For Greece it will also give the government more room to finance its measures to get the economy through the pandemic. The central bank stressed that the “measures are temporary for the duration of the pandemic crisis” and will be reassessed later in the year.

Hence as risk-on has turned today into a risk-off, the EUR weakens so far today on USD strength. It will be very important for the long term stability of the bloc that there will be a clear signal of solidarity at tomorrow’s juncture.

[IMG]

EURUSD concurrently declined by almost 0.5% in making a low at 1.0829, resuming the bearish outlook in the daily picture for the asset. Yesterday’s rally spread concerns whether the EURUSD possible trend revernsal however today’s swing lower again along with the decline for 7th consecutive day below 20- and 50-day SMA suggest that yesterday’s rally was just a correction.

In the 1-hour chart, EURUSD is moving within a tight downchannel since 1.0925 peak, with lower ups and downs seen since then. Hence in the near term any recovery within the channel could be interpret as a correction prior a pullback. Intraday momentum indicators are mixed with RSI at neutral zone posting lower lows since yesterday, while MACD lines have been zeroed suggesting that bulls have lost the control today. Additionally, the mark of a hummingbird by Bollinger bands pattern, which indicates a bearish signal in the daily chart, could signal further weakness in the near term.

[IMG]

In order the near term picture to turn to positive again, the hourly RSI needs to sustain a move above 50, while we need to see a swing outside the channel and above the confluence of the latest up fractal and the 20-hour EMA, at 1.0892. Meanwhile, in the medium term outlook, the asset is facing a strong Resistance area at 1.0950-1.0965 (50% Fib. retracement from 1.1146 downleg and 50-day SMA). A decisive breakout above this area could imply to the continuation of a recovery for the asset.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Date : 9th April 2020.

FX Update – April 9 – 4 Key Events Today.


[IMG]
Narrow ranges have been prevailing in currency markets ahead of some big event risk items on today’s calendar.

Asian and European stock markets, and US index futures, have retained buoyancy amid hopes that the peak global coronavirus infection rate may be approaching, which could mark the end of “phase 1” of the pandemic, with “phase 2” being how to exit from lockdowns while there is, as yet, no vaccine or cure.

[IMG]

EURUSD has posted a 40-pip range so far, with a two-day low at 1.0840 marking the downside limit. USDJPY has been idling in a 26-pip range, with 109.06 marking the upside cap. Cable has settled in the mid-to-upper 1.2300s, below yesterday’s one-week high at 1.2421. UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson remains in intensive care for what is now a fourth day. Official updates, as of yesterday, reported that he was responding well to treatment, but after downplaying his condition ahead of him being admitted to hospital and then an ICU, there is a degree of uncertainty about the accuracy of this. AUDUSD has edged out a 24-day high at 0.6246, buoyed by the current optimism in stock and commodity markets. USDCAD has posted a range of 1.4000-14054, holding within yesterday’s range.

[IMG] [IMG]

Ahead today, attention will be on:
 

  1. The recommencement of the EU finance ministers’ meeting, at 15:00 GMT after yesterday’s meeting failed to find an accord on a region-wide fiscal plan to offset the impact of virus-containment measures.
  2. The OPEC+ group of oil producing nations will also begin its teleconference meeting, from 14:00 GMT.Markets are looking for an agreement to slash crude output by 10 mln barrels a day. There is significant scepticism among oil analysts that even a cut of this magnitude would be sufficient to offset the level of recent demand destruction.
  3. In the US, the weekly jobless claims report will once again take top billing (it’s expected to once again paint a dismal picture), along with ongoing deliberations in the US Congress on fiscal relief measures.
  4. Finally, FED Chair Powell is scheduled on a conference call from the Brookings Institution in Washington DC.

Note that trading will thin into the long weekend and tomorrow’s Good Friday holiday.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Date : 10th April 2020.

EURUSD Turns Higher | April 10.


[IMG]

EURUSD,H1
The EURUSD closed at a six-day high (1.0928) and above the 20-day moving average for the first time in 9 days, yesterday ahead of the extended Easter holiday weekend. Action from the Fed, helped weaken the Dollar and action, from the EU supported the EUR. Today the pair continues to track higher in extremely thin markets and very low volume to 1.0945. Next resistance is the upper Bollinger band at 1.0955 and R1 at 1.0973 with the Daily pivot point sitting at 1.0906 above the psychological 1.0900. The Daily chart has resistance (50-day moving average and 38.2 Fibonacci level at 1.10970 and then the 200-day moving average and 50.0 Fib level at 1.1070, before the 61.8 Fib at 1.1180. Immediate support sits at 1.0900, the April low at 1.0775 with the March low sitting at 1.0635.

[IMG]

The Fed announced new unprecedented facilities to deal with the coronavirus and the containment policies that have largely shut the US economy. Under these new measures, which include programmes to support state and local governments, as well as small and mid-sized companies, the Fed will provide up to $2.3 tln in additional aid. The Dollar got hit across the board as a result, leaving this a case of USD weakness as opposed to EUR strength. Brave new world.

The EUR also received a lift as European Finance Ministers agree financing of joint virus response. The immediate support measures focus on three pillars.
 

  • First a EUR 100 bln (or around 0.7% of EU GDP) employment re-insurance – SURE – designed to support wage subsidies, for furloughed workers and self-employed. This measure will not just help those temporarily laid off, but also help companies to keep on trained staff through the lockdowns and thus lay the ground for a quick restart of production and work once lockdowns are being lifted.
  • The European Investment Bank (EIB) will also provide EUR 200 bln liquidity to support small and medium sized companies, in countries where support is limited. These are loans and costs will only be realised if they are defaulted on.
  • The last part of the package – focused on the Eurozone – are EUR 240 bln of credit lines to sovereigns that will be provided by the European Stability Mechanism (ESM). Unlike the original bailout funds, for which the ESM was set up, these will come with very few conditions attached. The only condition is that the funds must be used to cover direct and indirect health , cure and prevention related costs. The ESM is jointly backed by Eurozone governments and offer a sort of “Eurobond-light”. The ESM always offered the best way to jointly fund a direct response, as a new “Coronabond” or “Coronafund”, would have taken a long time to set up and faced additional legal hurdles at national level. The use of the ESM also paves the way for the ECB to use the OMT program – if necessary – to support the funding.

All these measures cover the initial response to the challenges of locked down economies and the European Commission will be setting up investment programs financed through the multi annual budget to support the recovery once lockdowns have ended, in addition to measures already agreed.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Date : 13th April 2020.

Events To Look Out For This Week


[IMG]
The shortened week starts with major markets closed on Easter Monday, but overcompensates on Wednesday and Thursday with the BoC rate decision and Press Conference, Australian employment data and Inflation from the EU.

Tuesday – 14 April 2020
 

  • Trade Balance (CNY, GMT N/A) – The Chinese trade balance is expected to turn out positive in March, standing at $18 bln, compared to the deficit of $7 billion in February.

Wednesday – 15 April 2020

  • Retail Sales (USD, GMT 12:30) – Retail Sales are expected to have declined to -3.4% for headline retail sales and -0.9% for the ex-auto figure, following February dips of -0.5% for the headline and -0.4% ex-autos.
  • Event of the week – BoC Interest Rate Decision & Press Conference (CAD, GMT 14:00 – 15:15) – On March 27, the Bank of Canada cut 50 bps to 0.25%. A rate reduction to the 0.25% setting was widely expected either at or before the April 15 announcement date. Hence in this week’s meeting no change of rate is expected. As they stated at the time: “This unscheduled rate decision brings the policy rate to its effective lower bound and is intended to provide support to the Canadian financial system and the economy during the COVID-19 pandemic.” The Bank launched two new programs: 1. Commercial Paper Purchase Program (CPPP) to help alleviate strains in short-term funding markets and thereby preserve a key source of funding for businesses and 2. Acquisition of GoC securities in the secondary market, with purchases beginning with a minimum of C$5 bln per week across the yield curve. The Bank is coordinating with the G7 and fiscal authorities and “stands ready to take further action as required to support the Canadian economy and financial system and to keep inflation on target.”

Thursday – 16 April 2020

  • Labour Market Data (AUD, GMT 01:30) – As the world changed in March as the pandemic prompted widespread shutdowns of economies across the globe, employment change for March is expected to have significantly decreased to -40K from 26.7K in February, while the unemployment rate is expected to have increased to 5.5% in March, compared to 5.1% in the previous month.
  • Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (EUR, GMT 06:00) – The German HICP preliminary inflation for March is anticipated to remain unchanged at 1.3% y/y.
  • Housing Data (USD, GMT 12:30) – Housing starts should dip to a 1.300 mln pace in March, after falling to a 1.599 mln pace in February from a 14-year high of 1.624 mln in January. Permits are expected to fall to 1.360 mln in March, after dipping to 1.452 mln in February. Permits have followed a solid growth path since Q2 of 2019, alongside strength in starts.
  • Jobless Claims (USD, GMT 12:30) – The disruptions from COVID-19 and the government’s policies including containment and relief measures are expected to continue boosting claims to unprecedented levels.
  • Philly Fed Index (USD, GMT 12:30) – The Philly Fed index is seen falling to -35.0 versus a 37-month high of 36.7 in February. The March reading for the Philly Fed marked a low back to July ’12. April’s reading is now expected to decline further, to -26. The markets will focus on the ongoing hit from the COVID-19 outbreak and associated mandatory business closures in the April “soft data” reports. The indexes should bounce when various closure orders are lifted, but we have yet to see when this will be.

Friday – 17 April 2020

  • Gross Domestic Product (CNY, GMT 02:00) – The first Quarter of 2020 growth is expected to slow down significantly, confirming the damage the pandemic has inflicted on economies in that part of the world. The reading is expected at -10.0% q/q from the 1.5% q/q seen for the Q3 and Q4 of 2019 .
  • EU CPI inflation (EUR, GMT 09:00) – Both the core and the overall CPI inflation rates are expected to accelerate in a monthly basis to 1.1% and 0.5% respectively.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Date : 14th April 2020.

Risk on, Risk off…


[IMG]

EURJPY, in contrast to EURUSD, has nudged modestly lower on the back of a moderate safe-haven bid whıch boosted Yen. This has drıfted the pair to the mid 117.50, nearing last week’s bottom and extending its action far away from the 20-day SMA but also significantly below the midline of the 2020 downchannel for a second consecutive day.

Yesterday’s high at 118.68 has so far remained unchallenged, while yesterday’s bottom has not broken yet to confirm the continuation of decline. Risk-off conditions prevailed, weighing on the pair, though the move lower may have been exacerbated by European holiday thinned markets. Now, however, the global markets are returning to full participation following the long weekends in many financial centres in Europe and Asia-Pacific.

Economic data has been a secondary consideration even as the reports begin to show the depth of the devastation wrought by the shuttering of the economy last month — the huge declines expected in activity have been realized, and then some. Last week, to some relief, European and Eurozone finance ministers finally managed to agree on a joint support package to address the immediate costs of measures designed to address the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. There are now a number of states in the US and a number of countries in the Eurozone, including Spain and Italy, that looking at a phased reopening in economies.

Hence this is expected to keep the EUR in a choppy trading pattern in the near term between 117.30-117.93, unless sellers manage to direct a decisive move below 117.30. This could trigger March lows and a Lower Bollinger Band pattern at 116.11-116.40.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Date : 15th April 2020.

FX Update – April 15 – Commodity Currencies Reverse.


[IMG]

The commodity currencies have come under pressure with stock markets taking a step back in Asia today, and with USA500 futures showing declines of over 0.5%.

The Canadian Dollar has also declined, setting USDCAD up for its first up day in a week, with the pair posting a 2-day high at 1.3960, as oil prices remain on the back foot and as US Dollar. USOil prices have also remained heavy after it printed a 2-week low at $19.95 late yesterday, with the OPEC++ group’s near 10 mln barrel per day output cut, and hints of bigger cuts to dome, doing little to convince crude markets that producers have the will to cut production sufficiently to plug the massive supply/demand gap amid the prevailing lockdowns across many global economies.

The IMF forecast the world economy will see its sharpest contraction since the 1930s depression, which by now will not surprise many, while a study from the Harvard School of Public Health highlighted that the return to normal may be a long road, saying (of the US) that “intermittent distancing may be required into 2020 unless critical care capacity is increased substantially or a treatment of vaccine becomes available.”

Lets flip back to Canadian dollar, which its outlook so far for USDCAD was negative however a close today above 1.3990 could form a morning star pattern which is a bullish sign suggesting a potential reversal of the asset.

[IMG] [IMG]

Elsewhere, the Dollar and Yen have posted moderate gains versus the Euro and most other currencies. EURUSD drifted to a low at 1.0923.. The pair remains rejected the 50-day SMA and the 61.8% retracement level set from the upleg at the end of MArch. The overall picture remains positive as long as it sustains a move above the confluence of 50% Fib. level and 20-day SMA, at 1.0891. Intraday however the asset is oversold, hene a consolidation or a correction might follow since the asset closed the hour outside Bollinger bands. Further decline could be triggered is the asset breaks the 1.0925 level (S1).

Additionally, the biggest movers have been AUDUSD, NZDUSD, AUDJPY and NZDJPY, which have all racked up losses of well over 1%. AUDUSD, after a run of 7 consecutive days highs, has printed a 2-day low at 0.6325, reaching the S3 of the day. The pair still remains up by over 15% from the 17-year low that was printed on March 19th. However, intraday it turned below all moving averages and crossed below Ichimoku cloud, with three black crows and momentum indicators negatively configured suggesting further bearish bias, we might see the asset extending its move further southwards.

[IMG]

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Date : 16th April 2020.

FX Update April 16 – 20 million US Citizens Unemployed?


[IMG]
Trading Leveraged Products is risky

USDJPY, H1
Relatively narrow ranges have been prevailing so far today in currency markets, into early trading in Europe. The Dollar has retained a bid, edging out fresh highs against the Australian and Canadian dollars, though remaining shy of the highs seen yesterday against the Euro and Pound. Stock markets in Asia started off in decline before either paring or more than recovering losses, while S&P 500 futures are showing a gain of nearly 1%, reversing some of the 2.2% decline the cash version of the index saw yesterday. Oil prices have remained heavy, with WTI benchmark futures sinking back under $20.00, keeping yesterday’s 21-year low at $19.20 in the frame.

[IMG] [IMG]

In news, Japan is reportedly set to declare a national emergency in the face of a spike in confirmed coronavirus cases, while other countries, including Germany, Denmark, Norway and Austria, are taking first steps to loosen lockdown measures. Australia released better than expected March jobs data, though this was quickly discarded as being a false signal as the data period didn’t fully cover the impact of economic lockdowns. Similarly, a 4.3% drop in the UK’s BRC retail sales figure in March significantly understated the true current picture as it captured a surge in sales in the couple of weeks leading up to the nation going into lockdown.

[IMG] [IMG]

The US will today release weekly jobless claims for the week to April 11th, a data series that has been best capturing the real-time impact of virus-containing measures in the world’s biggest economy. The median forecast is for another big surge, of 5,000k, though even this would mark a deceleration as states catch up with the processing of claims from the late-March to early-April period. Expectations vary significantly this week from lows of 1,000k to 7,000k. The outlook remains uncertain, with close to 20 million US citizens likely to be claiming unemployment benefit for the first time in the last month, representing over 13% of the workforce. However, a phased, partial reopening of economies is starting to happen, with President Trump expected to announce his plans later today, but it’s looking clear that the road to back to normalcy will be a long one, with a cure or vaccine not likely to be available until next year. Such a backdrop would keep the Dollar, Yen and other safe havens broadly underpinned while curtailing upside potential of commodity and emerging market currencies.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Date : 17th April 2020.

European Update | April 17.


[IMG]

As we move towards European session and on US open, the narrow trade-weighted USDIndex has lifted from moderate losses to a 0.3% gain on the day, while the safe-have Yen is also now outperforming. COil prices have plunged to fresh decade lows, and the likes of the Australian and Canadian dollars have more than reversed intraday gains that were being seen in the Asian session. The Dollar, looks to have broken its inverse correlation with global stock market direction.

European stock markets have rallied, with a 4% jump in the French CAC 40 leading the way. GER30 and UK100 are up 3.7% and 3.2% respectively and markets are in full risk on mode, with US futures posting gains of 2-3%. Asian stock markets shrugged off the first contraction in China’s economy for decades and investors are focusing on some encouraging headlines on drug trials in the battle to get Covid-19 under control. Weak data releases out of China for Q1 were overlooked and largely expected.

EURUSD has dropped back amid a general bout of Dollar gains, which has pushed the pair to a 10-day low at 1.0811. The risk-on sentiment isn’t covering the full spectrum of asset classes and currencies. EURUSD at prevailing levels is a little to the south of the halfway mark of the volatile range that was seen during the height of the market panic in March. The rapid deployment of monetary stimulus measures by the Fed, and expectations for more, have impacted the Dollar in recent weeks, having satiated what had been a surge in demand for the world’s reserve currency.

The EURUSD decline is mainly driven by the “safety” on dollar however the european data earlier also kept the common currency under pressure. Eurozone HICP inflation confirmed at 0.7% y/y, in line with the preliminary number and down from 1.2% y/y in the previous month. No surprise there then and the full breakdown confirmed that lower energy prices were a key factor behind the deceleration in the headline rate. Services price inflation also decelerated,while looking further ahead once lockdowns are eased goods prices are likely to accelerate amid the likely surge in demand, but large parts of the services sector will continue to struggle.

European car registrations dropped 51.8% y/y in March, with Eurozone numbers down nearly 60%. Hardly a surprise considering lockdown rules across countries and the April number is likely to be worse. The main question is how strong the rebound will be once restrictions are eased and whether the sharp rise in jobless numbers will lead to a general decline in demand this year.

Hence EURUSD after whipping between a 1.0637 low and a 1.1494 high in March, remain in a choppy trading pattern, lacking clear directional bias for now in the medium term. Also it worths mentioning that it moves within a descending triangle since March top. The daily indicators meanwhile continue to be negatively configured however as RSI is slopping at neutral zone since April 1st, along with the flat signal line of MACD, the medium term points consolidation.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Date : 20th April 2020.

Events To Look Out For This Week


[IMG]

In the US, weekly jobless claims will remain every week’s highlight. In Europe and the rest of the world, meanwhile, trade and manufacturing data, along with Inflation data, will be the most data-heavy releases. Lastly, European finance ministers will meet again to discuss a way forward.
Monday – 20 April 2020

  • PBoC Interest Rate Decision (CNY, GMT 01:30) –The People’s Bank of China injected $100 billion into the economy through a reduction in reserve ratios for banks, while it also offered discounts to banks’ reserve ratios of between half and 1 percentage point from their original level.

Tuesday – 21 April 2020
 

  • RBA Minutes and Gov. Lowe Speech (AUD, GMT 01:30 & 05:00) – The RBA minutes should provide guidance as to whether the RBA members are actually prepared for further easing. The bank in its last meeting refrained from cutting interest rates, while pledging to maintain its new (as of March) yield target on 3-year bonds at 0.25%. This, coupled with the Australian government’s fiscal response, was considered a big enough policy response to the prevailing headlines caused by domestic and global coronavirus containment measures.
  • Average Earnings (GBP, GMT 06:00) – Average Earnings excluding bonus are expected to have grown by 3.2% in February. The ILO unemployment rate is expected to have declined slightly at 3.8% (3M).
  • Economic Sentiment (EUR, GMT 09:00) – German ZEW economic sentiment for April is expected to have improved slightly at -43.0, after plunging to -49.5 from 8.7 in March.
  • Retail Sales (USD, GMT 12:30) – February is expected to have flattened (0.0%) for headline retail sales while the ex-auto figure is expected to be unchanged.

Wednesday – 22 April 2020
 

  • Consumer Price Index (GBP, GMT 06:00) – Prices are expected to have eased in March, with overall inflation expected to stand at 1.7% y/y, and core at 1.5% from 1.7% y/y last month.
  • Consumer Price Index and Core (CAD, GMT 12:30) – The average of the three core CPI measures for March is expected to come out lower than last month, at 2.1% y/y from 2.2% y/y. Economic data is on the back burner as the market grapples with the fallout from COVID-19. Canada has closed its border to all but Americans. PM Trudeau revealed a stimulus plan which is worth about 1% of Canada’s economy.

Thursday – 23 April 2020
 

  • European Council Meeting
  • Retail Sales (GBP, GMT 06:00) – UK retail sales expected to finally give the first real insight into the UK’s post-lockdown economic hit.
  • Markit PMI (EUR, GMT 07:30-08:00) – The prel. April manufacturing PMI is forecasted to register a downwards reading to 40.0 following the 44.5 last month. Services, on the flip side, are seen higher at 39.0 from 26.4.
  • Jobless Claims (USD, GMT 12:30) – US initial jobless claims fell -1,370k to 5,245k in the week ended April 11 after easing -252k to 6,615k in the week ended April 4. The disruptions from COVID-19 and the government’s policies including containment and relief measures are expected to continue boosting claims to unprecedented levels.

Friday – 24 April 2020
 

  • German IFO (EUR, GMT 08:00) – German IFO business confidence is seen drifting to 77.2after it fell back to 86.1 – the lowest reading since 2009. Germany is in lockdown, even if restrictions are still not quite as strict as in other countries, with death rates still relatively low. Still, it is clear that there will be a sharp recession.
  • Durable Goods (USD, GMT 12:30) – Durable goods orders are expected to fall -13.0% in March with a -23% plunge in transportation orders, after a 1.2% headline orders increase in February that benefited from a 4.6% transportation orders rebound.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Date : 21st April 2020.

FX Update – April 21 – USD Remains Bid.


[IMG]

EURUSD, H1
Currencies have once again adopted a risk-off positioning formation as global stock and commodity markets tumble. The Yen, closely followed by the Dollar, have taken the lead in the outperforming pack while the commodity currencies have taken a lead in the underperforming group. Asian stock markets saw their biggest single-day sell-off in a month while the pan-Europe STOXX 600 equity index fell by nearly 2.5% as S&P 500 futures declined by over 1.5% after the cash version of the index closed out yesterday 1.8% for the worse. Yesterday’s oil rout spooked investors, and while some economies are starting to reopen from lockdowns, the road back to normalcy is clearly going to be a long one. Amid this backdrop, the narrow trade-weighted USD index printed a thirteen-day high at 100.37 while EURUSD concurrently ebbed to a four-day low at 1.0819. The Yen outperformed, moderately against the Dollar, but more so against the Euro and even more versus the underperforming commodity currencies. USD-JPY printed a five-day low at 107.29, while EUR-JPY forayed into 19-day low territory. AUD-JPY, a forex market barometer of risk appetite in global markets, and a currency proxy of China, declined by some 0.7% in making a two-week low at 67.40. AUD-USD printed a four-day low at 0.6270. USD-CAD rallied to a 15-day high at 1.4266. While yesterday’s rout in the expiring May WTI contract, and the aberration of negative pricing has come and gone, June futures today have been highly volatile, opening above $21.0, diving to a low at $11.79 before rebounding back above $15.00. One potential support for oil prices is the fast reducing space at crude storage facilities, which is likely to force oil producers into big output cuts. President Trump, also, said that the US is considering halting Saudi oil imports.

[IMG]

EURUSD ebbed to a four-day low at 1.0820, with the pair driven once again by a broader move in the Dollar. EURUSD continues to trade a little to the south of the halfway mark of the volatile range that was seen during the height of the market panic in March. The rapid deployment of monetary stimulus measures by the Fed, and expectations for more, have impacted the Dollar in recent weeks, having satiated what had been a surge in demand for the world’s reserve currency.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Date : 22nd April 2020.

Gold Analysis – 22 April 2020.


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XAUUSD, H1
Bank of America (BofA) has a bullish view on gold and expects the prices of the precious metal to hit the $3,000 mark per ounce within the next 18 months, according to the bank’s latest report titled “The Fed can’t print gold.” (Barrons.com)¹

At the moment, everything is about the current crisis and what we can do to avoid a deeper economic recession. With the central banks providing more stimulus packages, however, the question is how banks and governments going to cover the cash pumped into the market. As we can see in the BofA report, it is true: the FED can print money, but not Gold. The FED can print money, but it cannot guarantee that it will be good enough for economic engines to restart again, as we do not know how societies will react after this storm. What if, after the international lockdown, people’s habits change and they do not go out right away to spend money on more international travel, have parties or sit in cafes, like they were doing before? In this case, retail sales and services, and, as a result, GDP, will not be able to recover to its previous numbers in a short space of time.

Collective habits always lead the way in showing how an economy is going to grow, this means that the above-mentioned possibilities, does not mean that we will have a worse life or situation in the future, but simply that we will have different ways of socializing, and that, for as long as we are in the “Transition period”, safe havens will be in demand as investors decide where to invest more in the future, which will help the yellow metal and some other safe havens like the USD to grow in the middle term and even longer, perhaps for the next 1-2 years.

Gold technical overview – H1 chart
RSI is flat at 50. The price moved above the OBV trend line, but is also flat, while Parabolic SAR dots are forming under the candles, supporting the bulls. $1694 and $1670, the the upper and lower Bollinger bands, are the resistance and support levels at this time, while gold is trading at the very important level of 1685.
 

  • Pivot point: 1682.26
  • Resistance levels: 1704.26 / 1719.68
  • Support levels: 1667.12 / 1644.84

Today, the expected trading range is between 1644.84 support and 1704.26 resistance.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Date : 23rd April 2020.


A dismal day!

 

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Eurozone April PMI numbers looked dismal, with lockdowns across Europe really hitting home this month. The manufacturing sector outperformed, but the reading still dropped to 33.6 from 44.5 in March. Similarly to Japanese numbers this morning, the services sector collapsed and the reading dropped to 11.7 from 26.4.

 

The hospitality and tourism sectors in particular have been hit and for tourism in particular there is no chance of a quick recovery. The declines were the steepest ever recorded and new business inflows collapsed. Markit reported that “expectations of output in the coming 12 months dropped marginally below the previous nadir in March, thanks to a new record degree of pessimism in manufacturing”. Job cuts accelerated and average prices fell at the sharpest rate since June 2009. Clearly the extent of the slump is pretty scary and will add to pressure on EU heads of states, who today will discuss stimulus measures designed to kick start the recovery once restrictions have eased sufficiently.

 

A large scale investment program financed through the European Investment Bank is expected, while the EU’s multi-annual budget although any real stimulus can also have a lasting effect once things get back to normal and when that will be depends to a large extend on virus developments, rather than a political will.

 

Additionally, the German GfK consumer confidence dropped to -23.4 in the May reading from 2.3 in April. A dismal number again and indeed a series low that clearly reflects the impact of crisis measures and highlights that government efforts such as subsidised wages are not sufficient. The full breakdown is only available until April, but already signalled a collapse in business expectations and the willingness to buy as income expectations turn negative.

 

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Stock market sentiment was hit by the numbers and GER30 and UK100 are currently down -0.6% and -0.3% respectively. EURUSD has remained heavy, edging out a low at 1.0783. This is a move outside the 5-day range (1.0810-1.0890). Hence with momentum indicators in the medium and long term remaining strongly negative and with the asset price in a descending triangle since February, a sustenance of a decline below 1.0800 could turn the attention March lows again. However we need to see a decisive daily or weekly candle below 1.0770.


Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 
This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Date : 28th April 2020.

FX Update | 28 April


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Commodity currencies have seen moderate losses against the Dollar and other main currencies against a backdrop of sputtering low-volume stock market trading and a turn lower in Oil prices.

The NZD led the way lower for the commodity group after a research note from Westpac hit a bearish chord by forecasting that the RBNZ will take the cash rate to -0.5% in November this year. RBNZ Governor Orr last week said he would not rule out negative rates, and that he was “open minded” on direct monetisation of government debt. NZDUSD dropped over 0.6% in printing a 4-day low at 0.5992.

[IMG]

With the RBA having recently been ruling out going negative with interest rates,AUDNZDrallied to a fresh 6-month high, at 1.0754. The antipodean cross has now risen by nearly 7% since mid March. Note that weekly consumer confidence out of Australia, not normally a market shaker, posted a fourth straight week of improvement from the record low that was seen in March, although the headline is still overall pessimistic at a sub-100 reading of 85.0.

Among the Dollar majors there has been little movement. EURUSD has seen little more than a 20 pip range in the lower 108.00s, holding above yesterday´s 108.08 low. USDJPY has seen a sub-20 pip range in the lower 107.00s, holding above yesterday’s 13-day low at 106.99. The BoJ boosted its JGB purchases as scheduled operation, but to little impact on the Yen.

[IMG]

As for Oil, the hefty declines in oil prices have weighed on the Canadian Dollar, along with other oil-correlating currencies, lifting USDCAD out of a 5-day low at 1.4017 to levels above 1.4070. June WTI futures were showing a drop of 16%, at $10.66, as of early in the London session. This follows news that the United States Oil Fund LP, the largest US oil ETF, said it would sell all its front-month crude contracts to avoid further losses amid collapsing prices.

Goldman Sachs research concluded last week that global oil storage capacity would be reached within three or four weeks, which, once realized, would force a 20% cut in production. Such a cut would be tantamount to 18-20 mln barrels per day, which would be on top of the 9.7 mln barrels per day cut by OPEC++ nations, which will take effect on May 1st. GS estimated it would take between four and eight weeks for crude to base, noting that the production cuts won’t be easy to reverse, which in turn would risk there being a supply deficit.

USDCAD eased from overnight highs of 1.4075, basing at 1.4014 in London morning trade. Risk-on conditions have weighed on the USD generally, though another 16% drop in WTI crude could limit USDCAD’s downside potential. On a positive note, the Western Canadian Select grade of crude is reportedly trading over $6/bbl, a vast improvement from the negative numbers seen for a couple of days last week. In the big picture, oil prices will continue to drive USDCAD direction.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Date : 30th April 2020.

Gold Analysis – 30 April 2020

[IMG]

XAUUSD, H1
• World Gold Council reports 80% year-on-year rise in first-quarter investment demand (MarketWatch)

• Yamana Gold (NYSE: AUY) declares $0.015625/share quarterly dividend, a 25% increase from the prior dividend of $0.0125. (Seeking alpha)

• The Federal Reserve is committed to using its full range of tools to support the US economy in this challenging time, thereby promoting its maximum employment and price stability goals. (FED Statement)

• To support the flow of credit to households and businesses, the Federal Reserve will continue to purchase Treasury securities and agency residential and commercial mortgage-backed securities in the amounts needed to support smooth market functioning, thereby fostering effective transmission of monetary policy to broader financial conditions. (FED Statement)

Step by step governments and central banks need to think about their plan for after the pandemic is over, or is at least under control enough for economies to begin restarting. Reviewing the policies and monetary policies relating to gold, there is one simple and important signal to focus on; the replacing of cash flow into the market. One of the best ways the FED has been accomplishing this is by purchasing physical Gold to support the Bonds and other kinds of assets which have been sold in the past months. As we saw in the FED statement, the doors are open to purchasing more. Alternatively, we need either strong economic growth, which is not likely in the short term, as the main chains are broken and it will take time to replace and repair them, , or, more simply, to replace them with assets such as Gold, even if the “Gold Standard” lost its reputation years ago. On the other hand, trust needs time and it is going to be hard to bring the investors back into the market quickly, so safe havens are still needed. Therefore, for the long term, Gold could still stay bid, as demand is growing.

Gold Technical Analysis
Technical indicators mostly support the side movement, with bullish interest. RSI is flat at 56, OBV trend line is flat too, while Parabolic SAR dots are under the Candles and supporting the bulls. The yellow metal is in a bullish trend, and has $1719 and $1736 to break to confirm its way towards $1800. On the flip side, $1693 and $1684 are the next support levels.
 

  • Pivot point: 1709.07
  • Resistance levels: 1724.41 / 1732.95
  • Support levels: 1700.55 / 1685.20

Today, the expected trading range is between 1685.20 support and 1732.95 resistance.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Ahura Chalki
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Date : 1st May 2020.

FX Update – May 1 – Mixed USD

[IMG]

AUDUSD, H1
The commodity currencies have come under pressure after US President Trump soured the mood in equity markets, raising his accusations against China about the coronavirus outbreak, threatening new tariffs while, according to an unnamed source connected to the White House cited by Bloomberg, considering blocking a government fund — the Thrift Savings Plan (which is the federal government’s retirement savings fund — from investing in Chinese equities. Sources cited by Reuters said that a range of options against China were being discussed, but considerations were at an early stage.

The S&P 500 closed on Wall Street yesterday with a 0.9% decline, which capped out the best month the index has seen since 1987 as shares rebounded from the deep declines that were seen in March. Trading in S&P 500 futures has seen losses accelerate, racking up declines of over 2% so far in the overnight session. Trading conditions have been thinned by the absence of Singapore, China and Hong Kong, which are closed today for Labour Day holidays, and with many European countries also taking the day off. Final PMI survey data out of Japan and Australia reaffirmed the dismal economic picture due to the lockdowns.

The biggest mover out of the main currencies has been the Australian dollar, which dropped nearly 1% in posting a three-day low at 0.6446 against the US dollar. The Kiwi dollar also came under pressure, while USDCAD lifted by over 0.6% in printing a three-day high at 1.4027, despite oil prices rising to a two-week high.

Elsewhere, EURUSD has been rooting in the mid 1.09s, holding below yesterday’s 16-day at 1.0937. USDJPY has been holding a narrow range in the lower 107.0s. Sterling has come under pressure, giving back gains seen yesterday. The UK currency has been correlating with global equity market direction, similar to a commodity currency, over the last couple of months. The Swiss franc also remains in demand with USDCHF moving down to 0.9630 from 0.9750 yesterday.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Date : 4th May 2020.

Events to Look Out for This Week.


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Welcome to our weekly agenda, our briefing of all the key financial events globally. The week ahead will include the RBA & BOE rate announcements, Service PMI’s and topped by Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday and what has been the case for many weeks now, underpinned on how deep the mark will be on the global economy from the COVID-19 crisis.
Monday – 04 May 2020

  • Final Manufacturing PMI (EUR, GMT 07:00) – The initial reading was a dismal record breaking 33.6. Will the final revision offer any hope of a floor for EU manufacturing?

Tuesday – 05 May 2020
 

  • Interest Rate Decision & Statement (RBA, GMT 04:30) – The RBA meet and are unlikely to move rates below historic lows at 0.25%. A poll by Reuters of 23 economists expects the RBA to leave policy unchanged on all fronts i.e. cash rate and bond purchases with 22 also expecting no more rate changes until the end of 2021.
  • German Constitutional Court Ruling & EU Economic Forecasts (Both Tentative) The German Federal Constitutional Court is due to announce a ruling regarding the constitutionality of the ECB’s Asset Purchase Programme. The EU will also announce economic forecasts for all 27 EU member states.
  • ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (USD GMT 14:00) – Last month’s reading of this key indicator was another weak, but much better than expected 52.5 (vs 43.5). Today’s reading is likely to plumb new recent lows at 41 versus an all-time low of 37.6 in November of 2008.
  • Employment Change & Unemployment Rate (NZD GMT 22:45) – Quarterly jobs data from NZ will be the first big data release and impact of the virus. New Zealand has had a relatively low-level virus impact compared to many countries with an extensive test, trace & track regime, a rapid lock-down and a low death rates.

Wednesday – 06 May 2020
 

  • Markit Services PMI (EUR, GMT 07:00) – As with manufacturing the services and composite numbers are expected to make woeful reading expectations range between 13 and 11.
  • ADP Employment Change (USD, GMT 12:15) – Lasts month’s record -27,000 will be dwarfed by a contraction of over 20 million as the weekly new unemployment claims have been capturing over the last few weeks.

Thursday – 07 May 2020
 

  • Trade Balance (AUD, GMT 01:30) – The Australian Trade balance is seen as taking a hit with a rise to 6.8 million AUD, the export /import mix could be severely disrupted.
  • Interest Rate Decision & Press Conference (GBP, GMT 11:00 & 11:30) – The BOE officials have already taken substantial steps in the quest to safeguard markets and liquidity provisions as economies face deep recessions this year. No changes expected in rates or outlook or voting expected. New Governor Bailey has had a tough baptism and with the UK still in the grips of virus lockdown his options remain limited.
  • Jobless Claims (USD, GMT 12:30)– US initial jobless claims dropped last week but still exceed the 3.5 million expected at 3.789 million. Today the numbers could be under 2 million and if the drop in initial weekly claims continues, this could suggest that the worst might be over, and that the fiscal policy measures are having some mitigating effects on job losses.

Friday – 08 May 2020
 

  • Non-Farm Payrolls (USD, GMT 12:30) – The April NFP plunge is likely to be in the order of of over -20 million following the record fall in March of -700,00 as the full data is collated. The weekly unemployment reports have documented a huge hits to factories and service industries from mandatory closures, on top of the demand hit initially associated with the pandemic. A record day is expected.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Date : 5th May 2020.

Sterling VS data, BoE and lockdown decision!

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With RBA out of the way, BoE is the next to announce monetary policy this week. The BoE’s May monetary policy will be accompanied by its quarterly Inflation Report. The central bank has already slashed its policy repo interest rate to near zero while expanding its QE programme and putting in liquidity measures in response to the financial market consequences of the pandemic-forced economic lockdown. As with the Fed and ECB last week, this policy meeting isn’t likely to be too eventful, with the policy framework expected to be left unchanged for now. Large reductions in the central bank’s growth and inflation forecasts can taken as a given in the Inflation Report.

Meanwhile, a more eventful announcement, will be the looming decision on the UK’s lockdown, with the government announcing its review on it this Thursday. Although the five criteria the government has listed as necessary to be met before a phased reopening can commence:

  • flattening in the infection rate
  • ability of the health system to cope, with increased diagnostic testing capacity
  • a sustained and consistent fall in daily death rates with confidence the UK is beyond the peak
  • enough testing and personal protective equipment (PPE) to meet future demand
  • that any changes in restrictions will not lead to a second peak

look to be nearing accomplishment, Prime Minister Johnson will reportedly extend the lockdown for a third time, although for how long is uncertain. He will also, reportedly, detail a roadmap to economic reopening in the UK.

And adding to the uncertainties over the extent of the economic recession in the UK are also the weak data reports, with the latest being the UK final April composite PMI. The UK’s final composite PMI was unexpectedly revised higher, to a reading of 13.8 from the preliminary estimate of 12.9. However this won’t be greeted with joy as the revised outcome still marks a record low (by far) since the series started in 1998, having plunged from 36.0 in March, and from a reading above 50.0 in February.

The details of the survey reveal record declines in new work and employment, while input costs in the service sector dropped for the first time in the data series. As has been seen in other countries, the service sector drop was eye watering, diving to 13.4 (revised from 12.3) from 34.5 in March, with April being the first month of data to fully capture the true impact of the coronavirus/lockdown.

The data reflects the wide extent of business mothballing due to the pandemic and consequent lockdown, which commenced in the UK on March 23rd. In the manufacturing realm, the small minority of businesses reporting output growth were involved in medical supply chains or producers of food or drink. Many sub-components fell by record amounts, but while staffing levels dropped there were numerous reports that the fall reflected the use of the government scheme to furlough workers. One ray of light came from business optimism for the year ahead, which lifted off its record low that was seen in March, although only modestly, reflecting expectations for a phased reopening of the economy.

In the FX market:
Sterling is trading mixed so far today, dropping against a generally firmer Dollar while gaining versus an underperforming Euro, and holding steady against the Yen. Cable posted an intraday low at 1.2421 after tumbling back from the intraday high at 1.2461. In contrast, euro weakness drove EURGBP over 0.5% lower, to a four-day low at 0.8708. The release of final UK PMI survey data was of no consequence.

[IMG]

In the overall picture however, Sterling remains under pressure against USD which has been extending gains against EUR since last Friday. While the Pound is up by over 8% from the 35-year low that was seen in mid March, the currency remains down by over 6% on the year-to-date.

The UK currency has today once again proved sensitive to the backdrop of falling global stock markets. The combo of the UK’s open economy, current account deficit and outsized financial sector, has made Sterling sensitive to swings in risk appetite in global markets.

If we turn our attention to Cable, the pair is stuck in between the 61.8% and 50.0% Fibonacci retracement of the down leg from 1.3199 to 1.1409, while it is trading for a second day at the mid-Bollinger Band line. The rejection of the 200-day SMA at 1.2643 for a 2nd time reflects the significance of this strong resistance level, while it kept the asset into more than a month range below 1.2600.

To the downside, the 50% Fibo at 1.2300 could be a key level for a potential reversal of a trend lower. Currently, however, the nearterm picture is negative while overall picture is neutral with momentum indicators (RSI at 51, MACD flattened at zero) and BB lines and daily moving averages flattened, suggesting that consolidations could continue in the upcoming days.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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Date : 7th May 2020.

Commodities Update.

[IMG]
Energy

Oil Action: USOIL has steadied on either side of the $23.00 level, though remains down nearly 6% on the day, after printing 3-week highs over $26 overnight. The weekly EIA inventory report yesterday revealed a much smaller than expected rise in crude stocks, but also a larger than expected build in distillate supplies, which offset the mildly bullish crude number. The EIA reported that US production slipped to 11.9 mln bpd in the latest reporting week from 12.1 mln bpd the previous week. March production levels were near 13.1 mln bpd.

Meanwhile, earlier today, the unexpectedly good trade report out of China, which reported an 8.2% y/y rise in exports, contrary to the median forecast for a 14.1% contraction, catalysed a risk appetite, which also lifted the commodities and commodity currencies. Currently the crude prices remain up by over 230% from the low seen near $10 on April 28th, though prices still remain down by over 74% from the highs seen in January, as the oil market is not out of the woods yet, as production cuts have so far been insufficient to offset the huge virus related crash in demand.

Hence, on the products side, EIA data shows that refinery utilisation continues to improve, while from trade side, China’s data shows that economies reopening globally could support the Oil price in the near term .

That said, going forward, focus is on economies that are reopening from virus-containing lockdowns, and how successful, extensive and durable this proves to be. This should rekindle demand for oil and other commodities, which should in turn put in an underpinning for Canada’s currency.

[IMG]

Metals

Metals meanwhile are trading mixed with gold, copper, silver and platinum trading back from their highs, but at the same time holding well above the year’s plunge, suggesting that there are some signs of a stabilisation in sentiment. Palladium is the exception to this, since it has been trading in a negative territory since the end of March. Chinese data helped in the short term timeframe to partially dispel worries of a negative impact on metals demand via exports, although the detailed data are still unavailable. Nevertheless, the mining disruptions remain and should remain in the near future largely responsible for the tight market in metals since for the time being there is demand only from smelters.

[IMG]

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer:
 This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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