Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.


A Trade Recently ,that Still Baffles Me. Am I Missing Something Here.....

Recommended Posts



I am having some trouble understanding the way the price of certain strikes reacted to the drop in price on ticker ICPT back from March 23, 2014 to April 18,2014 . This is a Bear Call spread trade ( credit )


Here's how the scenario played out ( I have attached 2 charts, that show each of the 4 weeks strikes, and how they played out ),.....


On 3-23-2014 the 610/620 Bear call spread gave me a Net credit of .80 cents

One week later ( on 3-30-2014 ), the stock had dropped in price by $19. Looking at the 610 call on 3-30 , it would have cost $2.45 to buy it back. What I'm trying to understand, is why would it cost so much to buy it back, after such a big drop in the stock?

The 530, 540, 550 and 560 strikes didn't move at all either


On April 6 , and with 11 days to go till expiration, the stock dropped another $27 dollars in price, BUT.... the 610 call that we sold ( when we put on the trade ) didn't even budge again.... it stayed at $2.45 .

But look at the 530 and 540 strikes, Both of this strikes " Finally " dropped in half, and again, the 550 and 560 strikes still didn't budge


on April 12 , the stock had 5 days till expiration and dropped in price another $24, and Finally, the 610 strike dropped in price , and it dropped big time 9 from $2.45 to .02 cents ) , BUT...... the 530 strike went back up in price ( it basically doubled in price, from $2.65 to $4.90 ), The 540 strike didn't move ( it stayed at $2.00 ), the 550 and 560 strikes STILL didn't move ( both stayed at $4.90 ) , and the 610 strike remained unchanged at .02 cents )


on April 18 ( Expiration Day ), everything remained unchanged in price , from the previous week.


What I don't understand, is why the 610 strike would eventually go from $4.90 to .02 , but the 550 and 560 strikes never moved.

there was a $77 drop in the price in the stock, and yet the 550 and 560 didn't move, but the 610 strike did ( and the 610 was more OTM then both the 550 and 560 )


Thanks for fellow members help, I'm know I'm missing something, I just can't put my finger on what it is

Maybe there's a Greek I don't fully understand Or maybe there's something I can add to my option chains, that can help me to avoid making trades on these far OTM strikes , that have almost zero chance of moving, no matter how much in price that the stock itself moves.


There was very ( if any ) Volume and Open Interest on certain strikes , that far OTM.

Is this the main reason for their not being hardly any movement in the stock, even though it had dropped $240 ( 60% ) by expiration ?


thanks much everyone, I really appreciate it



Share this post

Link to post
Share on other sites

My opinion is that:


If you understand the mathematics behind option pricing and how it relates to movements in the underlying then you'll know that for deep out of the money options, the underlying can move significantly further out of the money but the price of the option barely moves at all. That's normal and expected.


As for why it is 2.45 which you believe to be high, well the first reason is that options have high transactional cost, and the second reason is that while there is a lot of time left there could still be an extreme event (a takeover for example). If someone is going to take on that risk then they want to be paid for it, and 2.45 is their price. As time gets closer to maturity, they may think the risk is less and reduce that price, or they may just leave that order in. As long as it's not arbitrageable (which it isn't) and there is nobody offering a better price, then they can just leave it there.


Lastly, why does the price of this strike move while that one doesn't etc. Well it's a market, people can post orders as they wish. There's not much change because there's very little interest in trading these. If there is more interest (in a particular strike) and/or if the movement of the price is likely to affect the payoff (here it isn't) you may see a narrower spread and more changes,

Share this post

Link to post
Share on other sites

looking at the system you are looking at it seems that it basically just a pretty crappy pricing system.

If it is getting actual prices then its not updating or using any sensible model to check these, and hence the data you are seeing is crap.

This would explain your confusion.


There are multiple ways of looking at options prices.....

1) your model with fixed parameters OR variable ones

2) their model with fixed parameters OR variable ones

3) live prices of bid ask - which you have to know if they are correctly updating, or simply leaving prices at levels

4) extrapolated prices from a model or ATM volatilities

5) last sale prices (useless if the last sale was 10 days ago)

6) a sh.t model.

Edited by SIUYA

Share this post

Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

  • Topics

  • Posts

    • Nice way to start! Don't get used to it haha. Netted 2.28R. However, I made a mistake with my position size calculation and accidentally only entered at 91.4% of the size I intended, so based on the actual risk rather than the intended risk, this trade was about a 2.5R winner.
    • Potential EUR/JPY short
    • 27 IS NOT 10 27 More Hilarious Spelling Mistakes That People On Twitter Can’t Stop Making By Michael Koh, February 8th 2014   31.4k             I just can’t believe that these men and women do not use spell check on their phones. I mean, doesn’t it come pre-enabled? They must be pretty confident in their spelling abilities! Here’s more spelling mistakes on Twitter for your enjoyment. Read the original 27 post here. 1. “apidimi” This word is seriously the epitome of all that is wrong with not spell checking. 2. “…winey” Wait, when they’re saying “winey” voices, do they mean drunk voices? 3. “…go to collage” You can’t go to collage, you make ’em. 4. “…barley…” Barley is a great source of fiber, I think. Right? 5. “Aifel Tower” 6. “corn roads” I’m just shaking my head right now. 7. “I’m a genious” 8. “sillowet “ 9. “human bean” *bangs head on desk* 10. “fake an organism” 11. “mysery “ 12. “lewbuttons” 13. “klamidia” 14. “flaming young” 15. “seizure salad” 16. “quarterroys” 17. “alluminati” 18. “…dairy air” 19. “…aliterate” 20. “sellulite” 21. “masterbait” Goddamn, people, TMI. T.M.I. 22. “subliminol” 23. “dognuts” 24. “…raping presents…” 25. “ginger rale” 26. “kukies” 27. “alphet” They mean outfit. There, I saved you the trouble of trying to figure it out. image – Twitter   Funny Humor Informative List LMAO Spelling Mistakes The Digital Age The Internet Twitter    
    • This took the article right out of my idea. There's always someone quicker than you though. Dont forget to like and subscribe I know you cant get your replies in quick enough these days but keep trying. Scraping the hull: Ridding your organization of barnacles Award-winning author Gary Conner is president of Lean Enterprise Training. 5-6 minutes   Editor's Note: A version of this article previously appeared in the March 2004Lean Into It newsletter. What do barnacles and lean manufacturing have in common? Let me explain. Barnacles are a form of sea life that everyone's heard of but probably knows little about. Many different types exist, but let's talk about the type of barnacles that attach themselves to ships. These crustaceans are roughly the size of a quarter, and they attach themselves to a host (ship) for life. The adhesive properties of the cement that they excrete are amazing. This small animal glues itself to a host with a compound so strong that it could hold the weight of a compact car (2,500 pounds). Estimated costs associated with speed loss (caused by increased drag) and increased fuel consumption resulting from these marine mollusks' growth on ship hulls are an astronomical $1.4 billion per year. "Fouling," as it is referred to, can contribute to an increase in fuel consumption of up to 7 percent after only one month and 44 percent after six months (Swedish International Development Authority, 1986). For ships, the traditional remedy has been a regular visit to the dry dock. There, barnacles and other organisms are scraped or sandblasted off the hull, which is then covered with a coat of antifouling paint designed to discourage their return. As long as 2,000 years ago, hulls were sheathed with lead and smeared with concoctions of oil laced with sulfur and arsenic. In 1625 a lethal recipe combining arsenic, copper, and gunpowder was considered worthy of an English patent as an antifouling compound. The danger for shipping companies is that the barnacles are hidden below the water line. Out of sight, out of mind. The only indication that fouling has occurred is the vessel's reduced performance. Barnacles-Non-value-added Activities Parallel Could our companies be fouled—slowed down or consuming resources unnecessarily— by barnaclelike behaviors? How do we "scrape the hulls" of our organization to ensure smooth, unrestricted, and cost-efficient advancement? Barnacles can be likened to the non-value-added activities we perform every day. During a kaizen event at a client company in Nevada, we performed a value-added, non-value added (VA-NVA) observation of a sawing process. The operator was a large man (325-plus pounds). He was working in 95-degree-F heat and wearing a shop coat over his coveralls. This poor man was sweating profusely, to the degree that I was worried about his health. The initial observation showed that he was able to spend only 19 percent of his day in a value-adding mode. Eighty-one percent of his day was spent on either necessary non-value-added tasks (things like paperwork and stacking parts), or, worse yet, unnecessary non-value-added tasks (activities like looking for a supervisor or a pallet). After the kaizen team rearranged his work area, developed a new work standard, and set his operation up to run at takt time, this worker produced three times as many parts. He now spent well over 60 percent of his time in pure value-added activities (still room for improvement). At the time of our kaizen presentation, he was unaware that he was producing 200 percent more material through his two saws. Before we told him about the documented improvement, we asked him if the new layout and new work steps were easier or harder. He expressed a great deal of satisfaction with the new process, describing it as "so much easier than before." He was producing three times as much, with less effort. Kind of like pushing a ship through water with less effort because the barnacles had been scraped off. Nondiscriminating Suckers Organizational barnacles can grow anywhere. Engineering, order entry, purchasing, finance, and, of course, the production departments may need to be put into "dry-dock" and examined for non-value-added activities. A fabrication team VA-NVA examination found that 25 percent of its time was spent in non-value added activities. For this $14M company, this meant $3.5 million worth of potential sales opportunity was being left on the table each year. Interestingly, after a ship has had barnacles removed, the entire hull must be treated to inhibit barnacle regrowth. So it is with organizations; sustainment is by far the hardest part of improvement. Changing the behaviors of the individuals who comprise the organization is necessary to avoid reverting back to non-value-added activities. Continuous Improvement Kaizen must become a way of life, and one trip to the dry dock will not create a barnacle free ocean or organization. Continuous improvementis not just a program title, it is a verb, and verbs demand action. I'm sure that scraping barnacles off a ship isn't easy work, but the rewards of improved performance and reduced costs must be worth it, because every viable shipping company in the world does it. So, where will you start scraping?
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.