Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

mohsinqureshii

Fundamental Economic Data and Forecasts for the US$

Recommended Posts

There appears to be a tentative and gradual uplift in the US economy but the data variance is detracting from the notion of a secure growth rate. As per advanced estimates the Real gross domestic product — the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States — increased at an annual rate of 3.2 percent in the fourth quarter of 2013 compared to real GDP increased 4.1 percent in the third quarter. And the real GDP increased YoY from 2.8% in 2012 to 1.9% in 2013.

 

On the consumption side, the price index for gross domestic purchases, which measures prices paid by U.S. residents, increased 1.2 percent in the fourth quarter, compared to an increase of 1.8 percent in the third, which shows deceleration. Current-dollar personal income increased $69.4 billion (2.0 percent) in the fourth quarter, compared to an increase of $140.0 billion (4.0 percent) in the quarter preceding it. Personal income increased $2.3 billion, or less than 0.1 percent, and disposable personal income (DPI) decreased $3.8 billion, or less than 0.1 percent, in December according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $44.1 billion, or 0.4 percent. However this Personal Consumption expenditure increase is lower than the increase in November, when a 0.6% increase was registered that is $74.8 billion in value.

 

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 113,000 in January, lower than the 2013 monthly average of 194,000, but unemployment rate remained near the benchmark at 6.6%. Personal income (DPI) increased at a reduced rate in December by $2.3 and so did Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) by $44.1 billion. However, Personal Savings (DPI less PCE) were lower at $495.2 billion in December down from $541 billion in November. The Pending Home Sales Index fell 8.8% and was lowest since October 2011 reaching 92.4. While the sales was down due to abnormal weather conditions, however, structural problems of demand supply gap, due to limited inventory, and tighter regulation, is capping the sales. As can be seen from the graph, that home sales were almost flat November to December which delineates these issues.

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=37736&stc=1&d=1392233293

 

On a more positive note The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index®, which posted a rebound in December, once again improved in January. The Index now stands at 80.7 (1985=100), up from 77.5 in December. The Present Situation Index increased to 79.1 from 75.3. The Expectations Index increased to 81.8 from 79.0 last month. Given that these measurements are subjective and may vary between geographical disparate regions, still do permeate a sense of optimism.

 

The recently issued Market Flash U.S. Services, Business Activity Index, signaled a further expansion of service sector output from 55.7 in December to 56.6 in January. The increasing levels of activity have improved the business outlook. Further the Markit U.S. Composite PMI output index, based on Services and Manufacturing PMI, was similar to 56.1 a month earlier.

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=37737&stc=1&d=1392233293

 

The Federal Open Market Committee meeting, reaffirmed that while growth did pick up in the recent quarters, still it was important not to lose sight of the consistent achievement of the employment target while maintaining an inflationary target of the targeted 2%, which has run below the Committees objectives. So the option to modulate the purchase of Treasury and Mortgage back securities would be conditional to the steadily improving labor market conditions in the context of price stability, which figuratively are two sides of the same coin.

 

Given the general variability of the data, the medium term outlook is pointing to a flattish fundamental outlook, even though the biggest economy in the world is purported to be set for a rebound in 2014.

Construction-data.jpg.7bd7ad2c995db579564a7ff501f51271.jpg

Purchasers-Manufacturing-Index-Business-Activity.jpg.43fb48c972ebe95a992902488c55ab4f.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Topics

  • Posts

    • $BAC Bank of America stock finally got the breakout , see https://stockconsultant.com/?BAC
    • $AYI Acuity Brands stock good day with a breakout above 104.85 , see https://stockconsultant.com/?AYI
    • $AXP American Express stock with a solid breakout above 97.46 , see https://stockconsultant.com/?AXP
    • $ACGL Arch Capital Group stock with a nice narrow range breakout above 31.43, from Stocks To Watch , see https://stockconsultant.com/?ACGL
    • Date : 7th August 2020.FX Update – Ahead of NFP, USD finds a bid.The narrow trade-weighted USDIndex (DXY) posted a two-day high at 93.16, extending the rebound from the 27-month low seen yesterday at 92.53. EURUSD concurrently retreated to a 1.1819 low, which is a pip shy of yesterday’s low and 2 pips shy of making it a big figure correction from yesterday’s 27-month peak. Cable posted a two-day low at 1.3098, drawing back from the 1.3187 five-month peak seen Thursday following the warily upbeat BoE outlook. USDJPY continued to ply a narrow range (less than 15 pips) around the 105.50 mark. Both the Aussie and Kiwi Dollars corrected moderately as the US currency firmed. AUDUSD, after first edging out a high at 0.7243, which matches Wednesday’s 18-month peak, ebbed to a low at 0.7196. USDCAD lifted to a three-day high at 1.3372.Front-month USOil futures were soft for a second day, maintaining sub-$42.00 levels after posting a five-month high earlier in the week at $42.52. Gold prices corrected below $2,050.00 after printing a fresh nominal record high at $2,077.85. The ascent of gold has been a reflection of investor concerns over the risk of there being an eventual pop in inflation as a consequence of massive global fiscal stimulus efforts and massive global monetary uber-accommodation, although there has been scant sign of this happening thus far, with disinflation remaining in force and with much of the US yield curve and other sovereign benchmark yields either at or near record lows. In the mix is speculation that the Fed, and possibly other major central banks, may be amid a strategic shift to allow higher inflation.The US Department of Labor’s weekly initial jobless claims will be THE key data release from the US later today, while labor market reports from Canada and the United States will be closely watched by market participants. The median forecast of economists polled by Reuters is for the Non-Farm Payroll to rise by 1,600,000, following the big miss in ADP number of 167,000 on Wednesday and the better than expected Weekly Claims yesterday of 1,186,000 compared to expectations of 1,400,000. The range in the Reuters poll estimates varies from -280,000 to 3,500,000. On the other hand, Canada is expected to add 400,000 jobs with the Unemployment Rate slumping lower to 11% from 12.3%.Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.