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  1. There appears to be a tentative and gradual uplift in the US economy but the data variance is detracting from the notion of a secure growth rate. As per advanced estimates the Real gross domestic product — the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States — increased at an annual rate of 3.2 percent in the fourth quarter of 2013 compared to real GDP increased 4.1 percent in the third quarter. And the real GDP increased YoY from 2.8% in 2012 to 1.9% in 2013. On the consumption side, the price index for gross domestic purchases, which measures prices paid by U.S. residents, increased 1.2 percent in the fourth quarter, compared to an increase of 1.8 percent in the third, which shows deceleration. Current-dollar personal income increased $69.4 billion (2.0 percent) in the fourth quarter, compared to an increase of $140.0 billion (4.0 percent) in the quarter preceding it. Personal income increased $2.3 billion, or less than 0.1 percent, and disposable personal income (DPI) decreased $3.8 billion, or less than 0.1 percent, in December according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $44.1 billion, or 0.4 percent. However this Personal Consumption expenditure increase is lower than the increase in November, when a 0.6% increase was registered that is $74.8 billion in value. Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 113,000 in January, lower than the 2013 monthly average of 194,000, but unemployment rate remained near the benchmark at 6.6%. Personal income (DPI) increased at a reduced rate in December by $2.3 and so did Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) by $44.1 billion. However, Personal Savings (DPI less PCE) were lower at $495.2 billion in December down from $541 billion in November. The Pending Home Sales Index fell 8.8% and was lowest since October 2011 reaching 92.4. While the sales was down due to abnormal weather conditions, however, structural problems of demand supply gap, due to limited inventory, and tighter regulation, is capping the sales. As can be seen from the graph, that home sales were almost flat November to December which delineates these issues. On a more positive note The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index®, which posted a rebound in December, once again improved in January. The Index now stands at 80.7 (1985=100), up from 77.5 in December. The Present Situation Index increased to 79.1 from 75.3. The Expectations Index increased to 81.8 from 79.0 last month. Given that these measurements are subjective and may vary between geographical disparate regions, still do permeate a sense of optimism. The recently issued Market Flash U.S. Services, Business Activity Index, signaled a further expansion of service sector output from 55.7 in December to 56.6 in January. The increasing levels of activity have improved the business outlook. Further the Markit U.S. Composite PMI output index, based on Services and Manufacturing PMI, was similar to 56.1 a month earlier. The Federal Open Market Committee meeting, reaffirmed that while growth did pick up in the recent quarters, still it was important not to lose sight of the consistent achievement of the employment target while maintaining an inflationary target of the targeted 2%, which has run below the Committees objectives. So the option to modulate the purchase of Treasury and Mortgage back securities would be conditional to the steadily improving labor market conditions in the context of price stability, which figuratively are two sides of the same coin. Given the general variability of the data, the medium term outlook is pointing to a flattish fundamental outlook, even though the biggest economy in the world is purported to be set for a rebound in 2014.
  2. Countries that are experiencing recessionary conditions generally show weak manufacturing and productivity growth in economic data. These negatives will usually put selling pressure on a currency, as investors look to buy currencies of more stable nations.
  3. Market Reactions can come after events like interest rate changes from a central bank, a military conflict or a piece of economic data. The majority of market participants will control forex prices once the information is made public and the general direction that is seen can be described as the consensus reaction.
  4. Fundamental Traders tend to differ from Chartists, who rely on technical pricing formations as a source for trading ideas. Fundamental Trades tend to have longer term time horizons for their trades.
  5. Economic reports are released on a monthly, quarterly, or yearly basis and these can have a drastic effect on the underlying momentum that is seen in forex markets.
  6. The Core Retail Sales figure is released once each month (generally during the middle of the next month) and this data gives forex traders an idea of how inflation will be affected and how the country's central bank is likely to react relative to the raising or lowering of interest rates.
  7. The Big Mac PPP is used my many fundamental forex traders to determine whether or not a country's is properly valued. *When using the actual exchange rate between two nations, the cost of a Big Mac is used to calculate the relative performance of the forex rate. *If the cost of a Big Mac is more expensive than the cost in the US, that currecy will be viewed as overvalued.
  8. The Australian Bureau releases macro economic data that can have a drastic effect of the price activity trends that are seen in the Australian Dollar. Data releases are scheduled for specific times on a monthly quarterly or yearly basis, and many traders base their position strategies based on the strength or weakness of the data that is made public. This information is also vital for the country’s central bank when monetary policy measures are being drafted.
  9. I have always seen this economic data on Forexfactory and others News site. Pls I need someone to put me through. Economic data release like Cor Durable goods, is it powerful enough to move the currency up or down? I will appreciate a response. Thanks
  10. In a normal week today's economic data would have made a bigger splash than it did; however, this is not a normal week. Clearly Tuesday's vote, Wednesday's printing press Ponzi scheme, and Friday's jobs data may create a tsunami of waves. First up was the income & spending report. The news came as no surprise to me: incomes were down, but good Americans that we are - we increased our spending. Personal income was far worse than expected at -0.1% and spending was 50% worse than estimated at +0.2%. This data is not not good, but who needs good economic data when the Fed is going to print like maniacs? The ISM report beat expectations by a wide margin. Consensus estimates were for a reading of 54.5 but it came in at 56.9. What is definitely odd is the fact that the regional "manufacturing" reports are a constant disappointment and even show contraction if memory serves me correctly. Somehow, however, when the national data is released it is far better than the sum of its parts. Here are a few quotes from respondents of the survey... * "The dollar is weakening again, which is resulting in higher costs for our materials we purchase overseas. It is hurting our profit margins." (Transportation Equipment) * "Business slowing down but still double digit over last year." (Chemical Products) * "Currency continues to wreak havoc with commodity pricing." (Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products) * "Customers remain cautious, placing orders at the last minute, making supply planning a challenge." (Machinery) * "Our customer base — auto manufacturers — is expanding capacity and making major capital investments." (Fabricated Metal Products) The final report of the day was construction spending. Like the ISM data, it easily beat expectations: consensus estimates were for a reading of -0.5% but it came in at +0.5%. Bloomberg said, "The boost in September was led by a 1.8 percent increase in private residential outlays, following a 4.2 percent decline in August. These numbers reflect recent improvement in housing starts." It looks like this activity took place BEFORE the Fraudclosure scam made it into the Lame Stream Media. This may not continue. Trade well and follow the trend, not the so-called “experts.” Behold the age of infinite moral hazard! On April 2nd, 2009 CONgress forced FASB to suspend rule 157 in favor of deceitful accounting for the TBTF banksters. Larry Levin larrylevin@tradingadvantage.com Trading Advantage (888) 755-3846__
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