Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

Mysticforex

Let's Try an Experiment

Recommended Posts

As I understand it,this thread is based on random entry based on a coin flip.Whereas the above quotes talk about random entry based on trend following,with the implication being that even trading randomly (with the trend) there is an edge in identifying a trend and trading with it.

 

Until the bit about "long term trend filters" towards the end, then it's not a random entry with the trend, it's a random entry that could be profitable if it is with the trend, or will be unprofitable if it is against the trend. No judgement regarding the direction of the trend is being made as part of the entry decision, as far as I can tell.

 

Of course, it's hard to know exactly what was tested.

 

And I personally believe that efficient entries (better than random) are possible and, if you accept that the data is largely random, then non-random entries make perfect sense.

 

And yes - this thread was just a bit of fun, I think.

 

BlueHorseshoe

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Conclusion

 

Of the above trades,how many were in the direction of the main trend?

It might be interesting to compare these results to a long only entry each time (if the trend is up) Otherwise,exactly what benchmark are we comparing random to?

Without a credible and tangible benchmark this exercise seems pretty pointless to me beyond light entertainment.

 

As has been pointed out a few times, It is entertainment. If you would like to join the fun, perhaps you could count the number of trades you thought were with the trend.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The benchmark is luck. The definitive is fate. In other words, lo que será será. What is to be is to be and your lucky if you get ...what is to be. Whether you hit it via coin flips...pendulum..mathematical equations..fibs..or other technical contraptions....db's predictive boxes..patuca dipstick opinions...mightymouses mouse trap jailbreaks...bob's planetary rotations and revolutions...

 

Don't you believe in luck and fate mits?

Edited by Patuca

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Does anyone believe in trying to predict fate? Predict opens a can of worms...fate is fixed...

 

you can predict fate - you supposedly cant change it.

 

Mitts - as for a benchmark, its a theoretical benchmark based on what we would 'expect' (as in all probability) to occur.

 

and Zdo,,,,drum roll please...:)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

So we have Mitsu Tails/Sell for Tues, 8/6/13 And Siuya Tails/Sell For Weds, 8/7/13.

 

I could not get to my platform at 17:00 EST to manually close an open trade. So it was closed at 18:49 EST -5.7 pips.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Ok.Maybe it was mentioned and I missed it.What then,is the "theoretical benchmark"?

 

Not being overly concerned with the ideas of fate, belief and gods etc....so I will skip all that,

 

but in terms of a benchmark....

I called it a theoretical benchmark because in this unique case of flipping a coin there is no official benchmark. Whereas if comparing our results to some other index - the usual measure then there is an official benchmark (with its rules and composition) to index against.

When it comes to coin tossing, all we have is the mathematical expectation over the long run.

Otherwise, the benchmark would either be us....or anyone who flips a coin which would be rather pointless.

Even if we combined lots of different coin flippers to create a benchmark, then it should approximate to the theoretical benchmark over the long term.

 

This must surely be the idea that over the long term flipping a coin will provide no predictive edge, and hence why this is purely an experiment in tricking ourselves that it might, and hence why we can market this at a later date as a system with rules in the hope we can trick (ahem....convince) others that it works.

(Now if we introduced some money management and other forms of controls or filters we might actually have something. :)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Thank you Mysticforex for starting this experiment, this is very interesting!

 

The adjacent thread for the "Predict" part of the experiment is to be found here http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/forex-trading-laboratory/16994-predict-experiment.html

 

I have a few questions:

1. Are the trades opened at 09:30 EST disregarding ideal entry location?

2. I created a $100,000 account for this experiment - is this the size account you wish to use? I can change it before Sunday so the 2% of the accounts will be similar in size so one is not stopped out prematurely.

3. What size contract are we entering?

 

Additional Question:

4. I was thinking risk:reward=2%:2% - doesn't that mean over the long run our expectancy is breakeven? What about having a 2% risk, but let the trade run until end of the day and not take the 2% target?

 

Thank you!

 

 

 

Since my Real Day starts at London open, and the flip occurs at NY open, I am not always available to manually close the trade at end of day.

 

Then there is always the chance of letting a winner turn into a loser.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Mitsu has just pointed out to me that I have made an error.

His flip, ( Tues. 8/6 of Buy was executed as a sell. With the resultant loss of 20 pips, and 2 %

 

The error was mine. We can decide how to deal with it at the end of the contest

 

We didn;t have a flip slated for today, so I just flipped my 5 CHF coin and got Heads/Buy.

 

Thank you Mits for catching that and bring it to our attention.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Topics

  • Posts

    • Question: To those that had/have cancer, what were the signs that made you think “something is not right here” to make you go see a doctor? Answer: So, 5/25/2018, I woke up, got ready for work, and as I walked to my car, I started gagging. Like something was stuck in my throat and I needed to clear it. And then it went away.   But 10 minutes after that, I was T-boned at 40mph on the driver side door. But what made me see a doctor was while my muscles felt better and bruises were going away, the gagging still continued, I started having fevers, my neck felt swollen, I was having such a hard time breathing, and I'd have random sharp pains in my chest, but not from where the seat belt saved me.   2 weeks after the accident, I finally see an urgent care doctor, who looks me over, tells me I'm fine, but luckily requests a neck X-ray. And I ask for a chest X-ray, which he rolls his eyes but let me have (most of my pain was in the neck, so I understand).   The very next day, he calls and says “So, that chest X-ray shows there's a 4 inch mass on your heart and lungs, and your lungs have been filling up with fluid, as well as in your pericardial (heart) wall. We need you to come in tomorrow.”   Turns out the big mass, due to the accident, caused my heart and lungs to tear and fill with fluid, the swollen neck and gagging was caused by 2 metastasized tumors, and the fevers and weight loss were symptoms. Stage 4b Hodgkin's Lymphoma.   But thankfully, we went very aggressive with chemo (and had a lot of bad side effects that don't normally happen to patients), and now I'm about 16 months cancer-free. Yay lucky X-rays! Rachel Jurina, Quora Source: https://www.quora.com/To-those-that-had-have-cancer-what-were-the-signs-that-made-you-think-something-is-not-right-here-to-make-you-go-see-a-doctor   Profits from free accurate cryptos signals: https://www.predictmag.com/  
    • As a man, the reality of life is the harshest part. I don’t mind looking older or becoming weaker over time; it’s nature.   Have you ever heard that the only people who will be loved unconditionally are women and children? Men will only be loved as long as they can provide until they are no longer needed. It doesn’t matter if you already did your best to get your kids to the best school or get the best things for them, if you stop before they’re done with it, there will be no thank you. The only thing they will remember is that they have to quit school at 15, ignoring all the previous 15 years of life you provided for them. The only people who will accept you, no matter what, are your parents. But in this situation, you might be that ungrateful child.   EDIT: Wow, I didn’t think this would get so much attention.   For those who disagree, I can only say that everyone has their problem. If you don’t get the chance to face such a thing, be grateful. Remember, sometimes what you throw in the garbage is something that someone wishes ever to have.” – ElZee, Quora   Profits from free accurate cryptos signals: https://www.predictmag.com/    
    • The good thing i had noticed so far is that the traderpot value is also on the rise..
    • yup its a gradual rollout the right way in my opinion, its really good and its exciting for the sto in 2027
    • there is no avoiding loses to be honest, its just how the market is. you win some and hopefully more, but u do lose some. 
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.