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tmbaru

Why Successful Traders Use Fibonacci Retracements

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Updating the thinking outside the box and moving off first base..

 

Prev week low 1626.7

 

1626.7 +3.618%= 1685.5 Actual= 1687.1

 

There were xxx no of waves from low to high.To recognize that,one would have to think outside the Elliott wave box......naturally.

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DB,

 

I would really be interested in checking that out. Would you mind telling me where those posts are?

 

thanks a lot

 

Question-

How do you know when a problem is too big to solve for yourself?

When you need someone else to help solve it for you..........?

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Question-

How do you know when a problem is too big to solve for yourself?

When you need someone else to help solve it for you..........?

 

DB has more than 3200 posts over 7 years. I don't have any way of knowing when he made those posts or in which thread.

 

You really think it's unforgivable laziness for me to ask for help finding a needle in a haystack?

 

It's quite possible you're a jerk dude.

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$14 billion dollar hedge fund with 800 employees which was started in 1992 takes an awful lot of insider info to get to that level and a long time before being discovered - if it was all an illusion and not some substance behind it.

 

Cohen Gets Subpoena in SAC Capital Trading Inquiry - NYTimes.com

 

 

Even Madoff was legitimate for a time if even for a fleeting moment. I suppose too that SAC was legitimate for a period. Likely, a longer period of time than Madoff. But, then the need for yield, the lure of easy money, and uncontrolled pride came together and formed the perfect storm. I know I am convicting him prematurely, but when SAC and RICO are in the same article, it is not good. Rico is generally used with criminal organizations.

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Cohen Gets Subpoena in SAC Capital Trading Inquiry - NYTimes.com

 

 

Even Madoff was legitimate for a time if even for a fleeting moment. I suppose too that SAC was legitimate for a period. Likely, a longer period of time than Madoff. But, then the need for yield, the lure of easy money, and uncontrolled pride came together and formed the perfect storm. I know I am convicting him prematurely, but when SAC and RICO are in the same article, it is not good. Rico is generally used with criminal organizations.

 

You convinced me.I'm gonna stick him in my "Guilty As Charged" thread.

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RICO suave hmmm. Yea he's guilty for sure. Throw away the key.

 

Wait, what about me? I went to the same high school (Far Rockaway High) as Madoff.

 

True but just not at the same time. Phew!, might be safe. :)

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RICO suave hmmm. Yea he's guilty for sure. Throw away the key.

 

Wait, what about me? I went to the same high school (Far Rockaway High) as Madoff.

 

True but just not at the same time. Phew!, might be safe. :)

 

What about you? You can't get into my thread that easily.You gotta clearly demonstrate that you're a sociapath.Nothin' you ever wrote here suggests to me that you're a scumbag.

 

Still,as you well know,being one of the most open minded members here,i'm willing to be convinced.Usually though,these types prefer to remain under the radar like slugs under a rock...

Hell,i'm usually wrong..you probably are a sociapath..oh well,looks like you're sharing a cell with Oscar:)

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Question-

How do you know when a problem is too big to solve for yourself?

When you need someone else to help solve it for you..........?

 

DB has 3200 posts over 7 years. I don't have any way of knowing when those posts were made or in which thread they were made. I spent some time searching for them but didn't have any luck. I really don't think I'm being lazy or expecting others to do my work for me.

 

If anybody can direct me to the aforementioned posts, it'd be greatly appreciated.

 

Thanks

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Given the number of levels, and how far the "bounce" can be from them and still "count", it would be next to impossible not to be successful trading them.

 

Of course, it's also possible to trade successfully by putting on a tinfoil hat and receiving trading signals from Mars.

 

Damn DB...don't give away my system. I am about to open up the Tinfoil Hat Academy of Trading.

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YertleTurtle gazillion thanks for the clarification. It has made me to dig deeper about Fibonacci Retracement and now has an in-depth understanding on the topic.

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Re Static or dynamic

 

 

If moving a data point from a larger timeframe to a smaller timeframe results in converting what might have been dynamic on the larger frame into a series of non updating values for multiple bars then transposing that value to the smaller timeframe assures it is static even if it is dynamic in the larger frame. Any number that remains constant while OHLC are dynamic is going to be static relative to the current timeframe.

 

I appreciate that you gave this idea some thought. It was intended to make everyone think. It's not the subject of numerous other threads. It's been suggested in this thread that there aren't enough ideas filling the void created by running out the scammers. It's also been said we shouldn't be critical of others unless we understand the specific nature of what they're doing.

 

This is my attempt to share an alternative view. It's ok to judge the methods of others and dismiss those methods as weak. When comparing apples to apples, all other things being equal, choose dynamic. Not all horizontal numbers are invalid. But given this is a competitive endeavor why consider anything static?

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Fibonacci analysis has become an essential tool to the modern trader. Some traders may be skeptical regarding the unique and slightly abstract way Fibonacci retracements and extensions analyze the market but ultimately all a trader needs to be aware of is whether they are reliable and accurate.

 

The principle use of Fibonacci retracements and extensions is to project strong lines of resistance and support for a security. Armed with these indications a trader can employ a basic but often successful trading technique by placing pending entries into the market.

 

When deployed properly the Fibonacci retracements and extensions predict significant lines of support and resistance of any security being analyzed. The retracements and extensions are laid over the top of a candlestick chart and if done accurately the resistance and support can be clearly seen. The price of a security is likely to either rebound when it hits one of these lines or pass it and if it breaks the support or resistance it is likely to keep on going. This is valuable knowledge for a trader and with a basic technique large profits can be made by playing the market with this information.

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The price of a security is likely to either rebound when it hits one of these lines or pass it and if it breaks the support or resistance it is likely to keep on going. This is valuable knowledge for a trader and with a basic technique large profits can be made by playing the market with this information.

 

You might want to rephrase this since your statement can be changed only slightly and provide as much information about price action as the the original version.

 

The price of a security is likely to either rebound when it hits a bunny rabbit or pass the bunny rabbit and if it breaks the support or resistance it is likely to keep on going. This is valuable knowledge for a trader and with a basic technique large profits can be made by playing the market with this information

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Support and resistance levels can offer strong Forex entry signals when the price breaks through an established level, as when this happens the price has a tendency to continue moving in that direction.

Though, S&R levels and Fib retracements are both powerful trading tools individually, when you combine them together the trading signals become much stronger and more reliable

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Article can be rated as informative But the topic is misleading. I wonder why some senior forum members are debating and writing long essays on it. All debate so far is ....... :spam:.

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I think a lot of people *including myself at first) get caught up in entering the trade. Finding the perfect indicator or retracement when really all of those indicators are just signals. Getting in the trade is the easy part. Adhering to an exit method that is consistent regardless of what the market does I've found to be much more important.

 

Knowing your expectancy is the most valuable calculation you can make.

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Fibonacci levels are idiotic as depends from where you want to measure the retracements.

 

You always find a fib level which fits your trade.

 

You have a choice.Either you study this far more deeply,or steer well clear.Further study will answer the problem you posed here,namely where (in time and price) to make your calculations from.

It's actually sequential,therefore starting in the correct place is what works,whereas starting in the wrong place produces haphazard results and that is why many conclude Fibonacci doesn't work.

Naturally,this statement could also apply to other TA methods

 

Your statement is idiotic.I guess you're a beginner so it is understandable.But the word idiotic has also been used by a more experienced trader in this thread.That doesn't reflect well on that poster and it's not much appreciated by those who are expert at this (fibs).

 

Because to say fibs are idiotic to those who know better is actually saying those people are idiots.Some of those people include giants in the TA world such as Elliott btw.

I've spent years taming my ego...I highly recommend it.

It is this level of "debate" that has driven many long term posters here away.If Fibonacci is not your thing then why feel the need to insult others?

 

Normally,i would post a chart or 2 and show some of what I know.I've decided after much thought that I am never going to post a chart on here or anywhere else again.

Several reasons,in order of importance-

 

1) There is nothing in it for me.Strangely,as I get older,helping my fellow man slips ever lower down my agenda and has ever less appeal for me.:)

 

2) It only annoys the pigs.

 

3) Most of you on here are going to ultimately move on to more productive things (that's what the statistics say) so why should I bother?

 

4) Showing some examples will only be cherry picked examples for most people who will demand more "proof" - well,i'm a poor performer when it comes to others making demands on my time.What do you want me to do,post the entire history of the market here.?:doh:

 

5) This used to be a good forum.Apparently i'm not alone in thinking it's increasingly not worth bothering with.Personally i'm no longer interested in attempting to redress the balance.Those who know and like me here over the years are welcome to stay in touch privately...otherwise..

 

6) Goodbye

 

For the neutrals,when finding/calculating the fibs bear this in mind-

 

HAL 9000:--"Well, I don't think there is any question about it. It can only be attributable to human error. This sort of thing has cropped up before and it has always been due to human error."

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The market is not a seashell.

 

Most things that occur in nature that are commonly used as examples by these charlatans don't actually conform to Fibonacci ratios either !

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Most things that occur in nature that are commonly used as examples by these charlatans don't actually conform to Fibonacci ratios either !

Can you provide specific examples -

 

such as which are not found in nature and which charlatans are making the claim?

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Fibonacci Flim-Flam. should get you started

I'm not looking to get started.

 

The link only points out some of the false claims. I could pick apart some of the points made there if I wanted to kill some time.

 

BTW both fundamental and technical studies are full of false claims as well.

 

Science itself has had many things once thought to be true that are no longer or were outright exaggerations.

 

Fibs are just numbers after all but as I think I have posted previously numerous times on TL a Dow chart from the 1920's showing their effectiveness long before the crowd "discovered" them.

 

And others criticize them.

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The mind is trapped in form.

If those ratios weren’t there, it’s not likely ‘we’ (Leonardo Pisano (who wasn’t really the first to discover fibs, etc), et al) would have ever ‘seen’ them…

 

Probably never realizing it - even to this day - Donald E. Simanek did not write a paper about the ratios. He wrote a paper about misguided ‘mystics’ still looking for the ‘formless’ in form… desperately looking for a language in the 'numbers' …

and they find it… but they find in it an incomplete symbology – like all languages …

He wrote a paper to desperately make sure he didn’t make the same mistake…

 

...and you might just be using that link to 'throw the baby out with the bath water'… ;)

 

 

In the markets, pure fibs sequences are the exception... exclusively focusing on 'fibs' , instead of the current dominant ratio 'cluster' (which is transitory and lasts... until it ends)

yields tradable 'precision' about 5% of the 'time'...

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I'm not looking to get started.

 

The link only points out some of the false claims. I could pick apart some of the points made there if I wanted to kill some time.

 

BTW both fundamental and technical studies are full of false claims as well.

 

Science itself has had many things once thought to be true that are no longer or were outright exaggerations.

 

Fibs are just numbers after all but as I think I have posted previously numerous times on TL a Dow chart from the 1920's showing their effectiveness long before the crowd "discovered" them.

 

And others criticize them.

 

You could go back to a 1920's chart of the DOW and say buy and hold is pretty effective too.

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You could go back to a 1920's chart of the DOW and say buy and hold is pretty effective too.

If you hold ............ long enough anything works.

 

But fibs are about price and .............. time.

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