[andypap]

this thread has a particular purpose for anyone in the forum intrested.
to open a general technical discusion about 100 % autommated strategies...
no judgment calls at all....
actually it is about what to keep , what to throw whitch might interest a lot of
the participants that try to design their own fully autommated strategies..

let me introduce myself.
i am a trader and analyst for 15 years and
i have average or even below avarege easy langauge programming skills.
i persist though so i have managed to
design a lot of my own concept indicators and strategies as well as standard concepts
like comressed timeframes indicators,dynamic adaptive to market conditions averages
divergence studies, forward channel like price projections, autotrendlines ,statistical studies etc.
i have posted many times questions in this forum trying to find programming solutions to
given problem that i was facing...
i am working on my own so this process was and will be consumming a lot of time and effort
so i have dedicated all my free time to it .

i will try to be as brief as possible to present my bias and
in order to set a frame in whitch the discussion will be conducted lets
start with the data first..

price axis, timeaxis ,O,C,H,L,V and timeframes.

to start the controversy i suggest that

timeaxis , O , C , and timeframes are holding no information of value at all...

the market is a series of transactions each at a given price and the only info of
any value primarily is what price , how much .

the open/close of one timeframe is one transaction whithin a bar of another timeframe..
the time stamp of a ceratin transaction is totally arbitrary and depends on many factors..
to decide that a bar will form every n time doesnt represent at all the the flow of the market
whitch is the flow of transactions...

so what we are left with is high , low , and volume.
more specificlly derivatives of high and low like support/resictance ,range etc.

apart than just suggesting it i also testify that i have backtested a lot of startegies based on
various indicators that derive from calculation relative to the close,multitimefame,diver gence and so on
and they were all having random characteristicts.

on the other hand strategies(es,forex) based on support resictance , range
and other derivatives of high and low
are performing very consistantly..and some almost fractal
and i am talking about a sample 0f 50000 thousand trades withing 10 years
over 20 trades per day
the equity curve of those strategies doesnt even flicker whether it is an upmarket,downmarket,sidew ays market
they kind of match the nature of the market
exept one "little" problem....execution(spre ad between backtested hypothetical executions
and real live execution)
buy that is a topic i would like to discuss later on in this thread

if anybody has a different bias or has something to implement in this first topic of this thread is welcomed.

the reason why i would prefer this discussion to progress from topic to topic is because it can become quite
chaotic if the conversation drifts out of context.

regards

[Tams]

that's a good preamble.

there are as many ways to trade the market as there are market instruments...

and the market has as many moods as your wife/gf.

if you can figure out your wife/gf, you can surely figure out the market... LOL


this will be a good discussion.

(I mean the market, not your wife/gf)

[andypap]

strategy devellopment hass many many pitfalls and definetely it is not an easy task..
further more from the perspective of the average trader it is a long term commitment regardless of the reasons that intiated that decision...
one person on his own time and resources will face a very long and hard to travell road with the different aspects of creating and refining a strategy...

if someone has advanced programming skills and math education and enough trading experience and works with a group of others of various experties required then he has
the luxury to show up and dazzle us with his super technologie and brilliant algorithms...

but the question in hand is totally different from this approach..

although required most essential criteria apart from enry,target,stop is adapting in "current market conditions" thus achiving normalized equity graph through time and having an accurately estimated execution in the backtester that will limit slippage in reality ,can that be done with relatively advance programming , standard technical knowledge and simulation of a real trading risk managment

i think that this description fits most of the members of this forum that want to create their own strategies...

but maybe i am wrong
maybe everybody has a strategy trading his account with no judgment calls and i am the only one in the dark or maybe people are throwning the white towel after a few frustrations and have made up their mind allready that this is too complicated to achive ...

summation of the above is that people that have a strategie, not heard about one ,can ensure
the rest of us that this is not a pipe dream and lay general guidelines without revealing their intellectual propertie , while others like me who think that they are close can exchange info revealing as much as they feel like...

here is something that i have strong evidence regarding the snp 500 and can be a topic of discussion.
an up market is very different than a down market so one should design these two separetely...

regards

[bootstrap]

Originally Posted by andypap »

here is something that i have strong evidence regarding the snp 500 and can be a topic of discussion. an up market is very different than a down market so one should design these two separetely...

regards

and there you have the secret

[andypap]

there is no need to match an effort to increase productivy and save your self from a lot of headaches with unequal and useless irony and hostility unless everything is quite obvious to everybody at first glance...

i was not aware of what i have proposed till recently and i realized it by accident...
i was making a " volatility indicator " to face something that i was involved with at the time
and then i plotted it in spx daily just to see and voila
the market NEVER show a mesurment above a particular threshold unless it was diving down
("" buy the creepers sell the leapers "")
NOT ONLY THAT BYT WHEN THE MARKET WAS EXCEEDING THAT THRESHOLD
AT VERY EARLY STAGE OF THE DOWNTREND.
each and every downrend from 1960 till today.
so i realized that i have a solid threshold for risk measurment

i have adjusted my strategies (size,stops targets) and most of all the boldness of the decision making part of the strategy and enhanced the results by multiples ...

of course this subject is in the realm of intersest of swing strategie devellopment and the structure of it should simulate a fund behaviour for optimal results and definately has no impact at all to scalping strategies or intraday strategies..

but just this fact can lead to another deduction about markets(another topic for discussion).

/////////////////////////////////////
two eyes,one brain
what is the level of awareness at all times particulary when you are buried in details and specifications and small tasks...how easily can you drift out of context..


my experience is that you can wonder in a maze for endless time overlooking the most essential

so no secret at all only a reminder whitch i wish that someone would have proposed to me to keep in perspective....

there is no harm done here
if anyone is buiding a swing or intraday strategie can exchange info and guidelines with others..

i am only trying to initiate the conversation...
if people start posting intersting views and structures i dont mind listening more and speaking less

regards

[macdfx]

LOL...................

Originally Posted by bootstrap »

and there you have the secret

[Tams]

Originally Posted by andypap »

....i am only trying to initiate the conversation...
if people start posting intersting views and structures i dont mind listening more and speaking less

regards

here's some of my demi-philosophical veiw...

it is difficult to make short money if the ma is trending up...
it is difficult to make long money if the ma is trending down...

if you can pick a top/bottom out of the blue, you should have the power to pick 6 numbers in a lottery.