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AbeSmith

Market Wizard
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Posts posted by AbeSmith

  2. Posted

    Abe,

     

    A friendly tip. Start looking for things that would signal to you that this trade will NOT work out. When you look at things from that perspective you can judge more clearly.

     

    If you start looking for reasons that it shouldn't/isnt work(ing) out and you don't find any, you have a better indication of strength than just being outright optimistic.

     

    Good luck!:)

     

    Excellent advice Paul.

  3. Posted

    Goog = hammer from Fri's chart. I could see a long here.

     

    yhoo = good support at 25.00. Could go long here as well, but I think Goog chart is better and has more potential to pop for a quick profit.

     

    Purely a technical analysis done in about 4 minutes. Take it for what it's worth. ;)

     

    Good analysis. Thanks.

  4. Posted

    Glancing at the chart Abe, there's some strong resistance at 60.00.

     

    A trade could perhaps be buying the break of 60.00. From a candle perspective I would not go long here. Based on earnings however, there could be a pop in some direction. No idea as I don't personally play earnings plays on stocks anymore.

     

    Good call on the strong resistance at 60. But here is what I was thinking:

     

    Earnings release might be a good play during uncertain economic times. Might be less choppy. So I think I will look at the premarket activity. If I see some strong buying at the premarket that might signal that it will be one of those plays where the price goes up ahead of earnings, so I will then buy early in the day, and if it price goes up according to plan ahead of earnings release then I might be able to move my stop to break even giving me a free trade ahead of earnings.

  6. Posted

    Hello. I'm interested in holding a position in GOOG or YHOO. Anybody got any advice on them?

     

    GOOG is a good company. Their chart looks ok. They had a big drop in early November but seems to me it is economy related. They are going into the cell phone business, so I expect their stock to rise on that. Other than that they are the #1 search engine provider. They are agressive and are making good moves. So I think GOOG is my number one pick right now but I was wondering what you guys thought.

     

    YHOO is not all that. But they are the #2 name in search and there is rumor that Microsoft will buy them out, which would be great for the stock. I think of them as the Pepsi and GOOG the Coke, and you know Pepsi was one time not all that either.

     

    So these are the two companies I'm interested in. But I was wondering how they will behave if the economy continues to decline. Seems to me GOOG is best positioned to weather a bad economy.

  8. Posted

    Abe,

    Make sure you read the prospectus for fees on those funds. Foreign funds typically have higher expenses than a domestic based fund. Fees can also negate any 'trading' you might do. After the mutual fund mess a year or so ago many funds now impose a fee for what they define as early redemption. An foreign based ETF may be more appropriate if fees become cumbersome.

     

    Ok. Thanks very much Brownsfan.

  9. Posted

    How about Mutual Funds, they are getting up to 100% returns at the moment. Always try to be alert by watching the market periodically for any sign of a pull back....

     

    http://moneycentral.msn.com/investor/partsub/funds/topfundresults.asp?Category=All&Symbol=$HF

     

    Thanks Phil. About how much is the fees on those? The China and Emerging market funds look attractive. Do I have to commit to them for a specific time or can I trade them?

  12. Posted

    Thanks for the info TG, I was wondering if you could provide a list or even one newsletter or service, including the fees, that you have positive experience. The difficulty for the OP would certainly be choosing the right one and factor in the fees. For example, a newsletter could charge $1000 per year, so even with 10% return in a year, with newsletter fees and commissions, you may end up with zero gain or even losses for a 10K account.

    The problem with TOS in my opinion is that they don't screen the list of services as far as I can see:

     

    There are other autotrading services that attempt to do some performance evaluation: eg., attaincapital or collective2

    I am not going to link them because I am not really advocating either or any of these services. I am just trying to point out the pitfalls of autotrading. If the OP would like to know which TOS autotrade newsletter to avoid, please PM me.

     

    Thanks for the info thrunner. Do you have any experience with Guerilla Trades? They seem to be well known.

  14. Posted

    Options can be very difficult to grasp at first. I've been at it for over 2 years and still know there's TONS of stuff i don't know. I love learning though, and will always continue on with options. So...yes, it's difficult at first to grasp. That's why I say to look into an autotrade service. On their website is a list of services you can subscribe to and have ToS autotrade those recommendations for you if you choose. If you're looking for a way to gain 10% in 10 months on 10k...I don't know that the possibilities are limitless, ya know. It'll be tough, but plenty of people out there can do it and do make that. Just a matter of finding them. Talk with ToS and see what they have to say. Cant hurt just talking to them, right?

     

    Ok. Thanks. Yeah. Them options seem very complicated.

  15. Posted

    I would select pci based video card from the SAME manufacturer, that would minimize any conflict during installation.. . You can also have more then one PCI video card ( in addition to AGP), in case you find that 3 monitors is not enough :).

     

    There are also agp cards that can drive 2 or 4 monitirs - yet another solution

     

    About how much do those 4monitor AGP cards cost?

  16. Posted

    OK Abe, might be a question of giving it a try then using the 2 PCI card solution as a fallback, thanks for that.

     

     

    MciChoki, where you say:

    "Since my mental trading state isn't where I want it I'm still on the grind learning." Yes, I'm there too. I like your sig, and yes WE WILL get there.

     

    Hey Ed. I'm dealing with a similar issue right now and I admit I underestimated how sensitive these video card setups can be. I just found out that my 2 ATI Radeon, one PCI and one AGP are not supported together. Not even 2 PCI bus types are supported together. But 2 PCI Express cards of the same type should work with ATI. They call it crossfire. I suggest you talk with the manufacturer of the video card about the setup you are considering before you commit.

  17. Posted

    No disrespect to TG, but from personal experience I would be careful with TOS (Thinkorswim). They are a brokerage that can autotrade based on signals from about 50 newsletters, not all of them reputable. There is no good, easy and independent way to find out which newsletter is profitable. Their autotrade system is also buggy and hard to use when I tried it last year. Some trades which I decided to exit manually was not exited completely in autotrading, so that I ended up net short or net long on what I thought was a flat position.

     

    I suspect they also have a conflict of interest with most newsletters in that they may provide lower cost or free trades and other benefits to the principals of such newsletter. In return, perhaps some newsletters tend to have a lot of autotrade signals and generate autotrading commissions for TOS.

     

    They also use a simulated stop in their platform, as many brokerages do, so that on rare occasions you get stopped out when the exchange data do not support that stop out. To top it off, they also got my W9 TIN number wrong, so now I have to file another.

     

    I am no longer with TOS. Good luck with your endeavor.

     

    Thanks for the input thrunner

  18. Posted

    Indices are lower risk than commodities I think. Again, if you talk with thinkorswim about their autotrade service, they put your money into trades where direction DOES NOT MATTER. Your trades can make money if price goes up, if price goes down, or if price stays put. Really, check them out.

     

    Thanks Tin. Can you tell more about your experience with ThinkorSwim? Is options the way to go with them, b/c I don't know the first thing about options.

  19. Posted

    Abe,

    10% return in 10 months is doable, but not easy, especially if you just park it into some funds/stocks. A managed program could work, but fees could be an issue as well.

     

    My suggestion is to either do it yourself and keep your expenses very low or settle for less. I'm guessing your experience in Oil and/or China is limited, if any at all. That's a recipe for disaster. Just b/c you want to pop that $10k does not mean you should just throw it somewhere you know little about.

     

    You have learned quite a bit trading the YM, so start there. Maybe not just your trading, but something else... I don't know what that something else is, but stick with what you know. You know how the YM moves. You know the margins, risks, etc. You've seen there's plenty of movements lately, so that $1k return could be had in days/weeks. As much as I do not want to say it, a signal calling service could do it. I have ZERO to recommend, but if you find a hot trader right now, you could get that $1k in no time. Just don't get greedy if you do. I am not condoning using a trading service, so please no one mis interrupt that.

     

    For illustration sake:

    • $10k could get $500 margins = 20 contracts to trade.

    • Since I don't care for the YM, we will assume the ES is being traded.

    • Goal is $1000 return = 20 ES pts.

    • Need 20 ES pts on ONE contract OR ONE point on 20 contracts.

    • So, there you go - ONE ES pt trading 20 contracts will get you the $1000 return.

    • Doesn't get any easier than that.
      :roll eyes:

     

     

     

    Keep in mind that this is a :cool: idea or a :ciao: idea.

     

    My point is that the return needed/wanted is very attainable but risk is needed in order to do this.

     

    THE ILLUSTRATION ABOVE IS JUST THAT - AN ILLUSTRATION.

    BY NO MEANS AM I RECOMMENDING ANYONE DO THIS, INCL ABE.

    THIS IS MORE OF A GAMBLE THAN ANYTHING ELSE.

     

    Thanks Brownsfan. You guess is right. I don't know much about China or Crude. But China would be easier to understand than Crude, since I've been following it for a few months, so China is in my radars but Crude is mostly something I'm interested in.

     

    You have a very fascinating insight on trading the YM to make the money. I have learned alot since watching the YM every day for over 3months but I'm not profitable. But it is an interesting idea because the target can be reached in a few seconds. Though 10% is not a stopping number so if I continue to play the YM then statistically I'm destined to lose.

  20. Posted

    I would point your activities towards China. The China bull market is in the early stages, it's going to be a long game. Be prepared for big swings though if you are diving in the oil sector, and use good risk management or the gaps in the daily movements will scare you at first.

     

    I personally wouldn't go long on the oil sector stocks right now, it's feeling a bit exhausted (this is what I trade every day for position trades). Feel free to PM me if you have any basic questions.

     

    The stock markets tough right now in my opinon. I've just been waiting for the very bearish days and have been short selling alot, and not doing any oil futures trading this month. Once we clear $100.00 per barrel, if we can close above it, then next target $110.00 and im back in the game. But until then, there is some psychological barrier to $100.00...even though it's silly and it's just a number, i'll wait to see what happens. Everyone's fixated on it.

     

    Thanks Bear. I agree with you. China has a long way to go and it would be a good idea for a long term investment. Oil is interesting to watch but I don't have any experience in it so I will probably stay away from it. And like you said, stocks are tough right now because the market is weak so I'm staying way from them for the moment.

  21. Posted

    Oh...looking to make a grand on 10k in a lower risk environment wouldn't be too tough to do over a 10 month period, really. ThinkOrSwim should be able to lend a hand with their autotrading service.

     

    Tin, read my post to Nick above about FXI and commodities. Would be interested to hear your take on those, or other swing to long term trades that you might do.

  22. Posted

    Find a financial adviser who can direct you to a number of lower risk managed funds such as domestic or international fixed income products (not the best option imho cause they barely manage to beat the cash rate), property funds, or small company funds.

     

    In this 10% pa return is that in pure capital growth or income or both?

     

    You'll find that most managed funds pay out income distributions quarterly so that will be factored into the return. Mind you just like a stock dividend the unit price of the fund you are buying will fall with an income distrubution therefore it's highly important you include any income as part of your overall return. It shouldn't be too hard to get a 10% return or more even after fees on most retail fund platforms that offer a wide range of investment options.

     

    Talk to a financial adviser and they'll sort you out.

     

    Thanks Nick. I don't think I can afford a financial adviser. But thanks for the info. By managed funds do you mean mutual funds? Because I hear they are not very good and don't beat the S&P.

     

    I'm also interested in an index or commodity. Index might be a bit risky given the economic turmoils. I witnessed the China move and now I see the FXI has come down dramatically. Not sure how correlated it is with China. It seems to me the Chinese are seeing the impact of worsening US economy. But if things turn around the Chinese economy will have the better return. So I was intrigued by the FXI and though it might be a good thing to buy and hold on to in the long turn, not necessarily right now but perhaps after a day's rallie and with stops a bit below the point where it rallied from. Though I don't know anything about the Chinese market and why it is doing what it is doing. In other words, is it something else that caused the FXI to drop so much other than drop in US?

     

    And then I also hear about gold and oil which might be a good buy on a dip. These are the markets that intrigue me the most right now. But I'm a beginner so I was wondering what others might think about it. I was also interested to see if it might be better to put the money in a CD or something low risk, but the returns are not much.

  23. Posted

    Hey Abe. I was kidding...I'm not licensed to handle other people's money. If you're looking for a place to make 10% on 10k in 10 months...I assume you mean 10% a month...you'll be paying a nice chunk in management fees I'm sure. Are you talking about 10% growth per month? Or annual? Oh...an please, don't buy crude or china. Those things are parabolic and this is exactly when smart money is selling the stuff off to people who want to get in on the action.

     

    Thanks Tin. I know you were kidding. I'm talking about 10% anual. So 1k on the 10k investment minimum. Thanks for the heads up about crude and FXI.

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