Market Outlook

[Market Outlook]

TOLD YOU IT WAS GUARANTEED !

24 HOURS BEFORE IT HAPPENED ! ( Spoon feed you and no action )

 

You were right. I see that price went up to the 11/26/07 resistance and bounced off. On the DOG trade I was considering moving my stop a bit to cover that resistence point. I remember it clearly. It was right before I was going to take my dog for a walk. Then twice my dog came over and gave me this look, like he was saying "don't move that stop." Since I was trading the DOG I figured the dog would know. But I think maybe he was just in a hurry to go for a walk. And I have bad memories from losing more than I had planed to lose due to moving my stop. I think this time I wanted to stand my ground.

 

But anyways, we formed a flag pattern on the daily. If it breaks the trendline then it will look more bearish. That is the way I'm seeing it. Or you might say we broke the support at 12600 on the YM. So perhaps wait for price to reach it and short it from there. If I were to do that though I think I would use a tight stop. Me personally I'm not seeing this clearly. I was surprised to see that we had rallied so much last week. Right now I'm feeling more comfortable with day trades than swing trades.

[Market Outlook]

The only thing I would recommend is wait until you get a better risk/reward setup before going short or long. But if this setup was in your trading plan and you took the trade, then that's what matters. Each individual trade is irrellevent over the course of your career.

 

Good job! :thumbs up:

 

Yes. Good point James.

[Market Outlook]

Bears are not convinced by the recent Market action.

I am neither Bull nor Bear @ this point.

Time will tell.

 

Doug Kass, founder of Seabreeze Partners, suggests buying the weakness that would possibly result from only a 25 basis-point cut and selling the strength that would possibly result from a 50 basis-point cut. "If there were a limited or opposite response to my two scenarios, I would do nothing,” Kass says.

 

Prudent Bear Fund manager David Tice expects the Dow will fall another 5,000 points and stocks will fall by as much as 60 percent. "Everyone has patted the Federal Reserve on the back for avoiding recession,” Tice told the San Francisco Chronicle. "The problem is, we should have taken mini-recessions along the way.”

 

Even gloomier, Euro Pacific Capital’s Peter Schiff believes that the new financial capitals will be in Asia, the Middle East, and Europe.

 

"New York will certainly still have a role to play, but much like Detroit, it will be but a shadow of its former self,” Schiff says.

 

Resolution to the bottom of the market being reached

appears to be unresolved.

Today may have just been a YAHOO burst.

Next week should give a a clue.

 

Thanks EOD Traders. Sorry I didn't notice your post beofre.

[Market Outlook]

Abe,

 

SELL the ES next week and get your money back, GUARANTEED

 

If you traded your plan then who cares of the outcome.

One trade won't define your net profitability over time...though I'm sure you know this already.

 

Get ready to take some money from Cramer viewers, I guess he said it's time to go "all in" on the market. :\

 

The short side has an appeal to me, I don't believe they could have V bottomed that sharp a drop and stopped the fear regardless of how much the big boys threw in to support the market. We need a W bottom at least IMO. 13,000-13,300 range could prove formidable and need some more basing to break that also...assuming somehow we don't break down to test the lows. I'd love to see some divergence down low to back my overall mid term bullish view.

 

Good luck fellas

 

Thanks guys. I also don't see much strength in this market. I don't mean to sound like I know it all. After all, I have only been trading for some months. But for what it's worth, that is still my view. But for now I'm staying away from trading. Or rather, taking a more conservative approach. Need some time to sit on the sidelines and do what a trader from Market Wizards said: just sit around until there is money just sitting there waiting to pick up.

 

So that is my plan right now. Don't see much strenth in the market, but I'm not confident enough to make any moves right now or short at the next resistence, on a swing trade. I may do some day trades if I see a good opportunity.

[Market Outlook]

So Abe, now that you've been stopped out of this trade what have you learned?

 

Nothing new. Just try your best.

[Market Outlook]

I shorted the market this morning for a swing trade. Bought the DOG at 63.78. Stop at 61.95, which is below the 1/30 low in the case of DOG, which corresponds with the 1/30 high on the DOW.

 

The factors which made me think the market most likely moving down in the daily time frame:

 

1. Market closed lower yesterday even though fed cut rates .50%. Tells me there is lack of confidence for the bulls.

2. Majority of recent economic data have been bearish.

3. Markets have been in a down trend.

4. We are close to resistance here, which failed to break yesterday, which in my view was the most likely time for it to break.

5. The majority of analysts that I heard on Bloomberg are bearish.

6. Infalation concerns might weaken the Fed's willingness to cut rates.

 

The factors, or arguments that I'm considering that are against my position:

 

1. The fed has alot of power to move the market, and he has shown willingness to help the market.

2. We might still test the 13000 pivot before going down. So my current position would be stopped out in that scenario.

3. Right now I see the market has closed the gap and has moved higher.

3. Can't think of any more arguments, but if you have something to add please feel free.

[Market Outlook]

All those talking heads were saying the market looked bullish 3 months ago. Now they are saying it looks bearish.

 

You have to remember how many negative things were priced in during our 5-6% decline. We most likely had a minor recession priced in, because let's admit a 600 ym decline is pretty impressive. That doesn't just happen BAC or C missed earnings.

 

That doesn't mean we won't test those lows again, I wouldn't be surprised if we do. But I also wouldn't be surprised if we blow through 13,000 and charge straight for 14,000 again.

 

Be careful when all those guys pretend like they know what they are talking about. Because usually they don't have a clue. The best thing to do is sit back and look at all of your data, and your charts, then make your own decision. You'll probably be right most of the time if you do the right homework.

 

James, thanks for your comments. I must say I would be surprised if markets charged towards 14000 anytime soon.

[Market Outlook]

I can only assume the cut was already priced in, hence the lack on enthusiasm. In any case, markets eventually have to test the recent low to find out if we're going into a recession or not. February should be a hot month for trading.

 

So you are saying markets will test the recent lows soon. If that is the case then perhaps it is best to go short now and take some off the table when it reaches the 1/22 lows.

[Market Outlook]

Hello. Today we had the rate cut, which was in line with market expectations. Price spiked up, but came down and closed in the red. Looks to me like a very bearish sign. Many of the guests on CNBC, and Bloomberg (which I've been watching more recently) had predicted in recent days that the market is looking bearish for the long term and it will go lower than the 1/22 lows, rate cut or not. Typically, from what I have seen on rate cut days (though I've only studied the markets for some months only) price goes one way or another. Seeing price action today tells me that the market is not feeling confident.

 

I would like to know what you all think. What is your outlook? Would you go short here on the longer time frame, or wait for the 1/22 low to break before going short?

 

In my opinion, after seeing price action today, combined with hearing many analysts predict that market is going lower, I might go short tomorrow on a daily time frame trade.

[Official Movie Talk Thread]

Quest for Fire. Saw it last night. Very nice caveman movie.

Another caveman movie that I liked was One Million Year B.C.

Also would recommend a documentary, I think on Discovery channel, about the first Americans. Don't remember the name of it. It was well done. It suggested that some of the Native Americans came from Europe, not just Asia. And I think there is a new caveman movie coming out in theaters, don't remember the name or when it will come out.

 

And an update on American Me, on of the gangster movies I was watching. It was ok. The DVD came with a docomentary in the special features, which I liked more than the movie.

[Fxi]

I closed this out at 145 today before the close when it looked like we were not going to have a strong close.

[The Right Coach/Mentor?]

My pleasure Eva. Glad to be of help.

[Fxi]

FXI gapped down this morning at 143. I'm thinking that it might have been better to wait for the fed announcement before making a move.

[The Right Coach/Mentor?]

Hi Abesmith again,

 

I loved Toni Turner's book, that was the first book I read. I thought it was very easy read and covered a lot of great stuff for beginners, which I am. To me it was very beneficial. Again, wasn't too technical, easy to read. I would recommend that to someone who has no clue about it and not to mention she talks about stocks, and that is what I am interested in right now.

 

Not familiar with the other book you mentioned, but will check it out. I don't mind reading books, as I love to learn and that is one way of doing it, but would love to hear some feedback, as those two books have been pretty well reviewed on Amazon, however who knows who is really reveiwing those books...hehehehe. That is why I am asking here....

 

Another book that is awesome, well, at least I think so, is the Stock Market Wizards by Jack Schwager. I think you might find that interesting as it's interviews with top traders. I love it, as it talks about how people trade different things and with different methods. It just gives my ideas on what possibilities are out there, so it's helpful.

 

Eva, I haven't read the Stock Market Wizards, but I have read the New Stock Market Wizards, also by Schwager. I liked it. Since you are interested in these type of books, I would recommend Millionaire Traders, by Kathy Lien and Boris Schlossberg. There is a review about it here at TL. I have read about half of this book, and it has lots of the charm of the Schwager book, except that it is about evey day successful traders who trade from their home rather than institutional traders.

[The Right Coach/Mentor?]

Eva,

 

I'm not sure about a book that deals strictly with technical analysis. Perhaps other members can give you some better suggestions. I also don't like reading very much.

 

However, I have 2 books that I read partly that I think you might find useful. They are both well known books.

 

1. Beginner's guide to day trading online, by Toni Tuner. This was the first books I bought about trading. I gave her a harsh criticism in the beginner's forum once, but in retrospect, and after reading more of her book, I think she provides useful info, and lots to do with stock trading. I'm about 2/3 done with it.

2. The Market Maker's Edge, by Josh Lukeman. I read about 1/4th of this. It has sections on technical analysis. Seems like a good book

[The Right Coach/Mentor?]

Angela,

 

You might be interested in signing up for the free videos at tradethemarkets.com. They also have free webinars from time to time. Also you can sign up for their trading room, last I checked they had a free 14 day trial. There is also tradingeveryday.com. They have a free trial for their trading room as well. Last I checked their trading room had few visitors, and I found that I was getting more personal attention there than at the tradethemarkets.com trading room. Tradingeveryday.com had lots of emphasis on stock trading as well. I don't remember tradethemarkts.com doing any stock trading. Mostly they seem to do futures. But they are traders still so you migh find their videos helpful. And ofcourse there is Trader's Laboratory which is my favorite hangout. The people here are friendly and the site is well managed. When I first got interested in trading I read all the posts in the beginner's forum. Found it to be very helpful.

[Fxi]

Look at the daily volume of FXI on 1/22 and 1/23. It is 22 million. That is totally unmatched for FXI for as far back I can see on my chart. The next biggest volume is around 14 million. The 22 million is the same time frame the Dow and S&P showed support when emergency rate cut was announced. But looking at the INDU chart, the daily volume at 1/22 and 1/23, although high at 3 million, was matched several times in 2007. The 22million FXI volume however, is unmatched.

 

What does this mean? Why so much more relative volume on the FXI than INDU and S&P (S&P also similar to INDU in this regard)?

[Eurusd 1.50000]

Price movement have been almost non-existent. I've been getting whipped in and out myself. I assume everyone is waiting for tomorrow's news from the Fed. So I'm shutting myself out until things pick up.

 

I've been getting whipped too. Lost half of my gains on a stupid intraday trade last night. 1/4 of the loss was due to slippage. Because I think my stop was just below a whole number, and it was not during peak hours, there were other stops above me that caused a quick move. Will probably wait for the fed news to hit tomorrow and see what can be done.

[Hello fellow "Traitors"]

I'm changin my avatar, again. This one might be bad luck since he picked the losing side. So my new avatar was going to be God. But I think some of you might be upset at God if you had misfortunes. So I will go back to my old avatar for now until I find something better.

[Fxi]

Looks like I got in too early on FXI. Last night Asian markets tanked. Shanghai lost over 7%. And explanation I heard on CNBC World was that it was due to the US markets closing lower on Friday. I heard no China specific reason, like poor economic number from China causing the sell off. So today my plan was that if markets close lower then I might close this trade. But today markets closed significantly higher. Will that mean that China will follow US markets and have big gains tonight?

[Eurusd 1.50000]

I got stopped out EURUSD at 1.47770. My entry was 1.46732. Might not have been a good place to exit, since there is more support for price to have tested. But on the daily it didn't look very attractive. On the 60 minute though it looks good. Didn't want to risk any more of my gains. On the last swing trade I had decent gains, but I didn't trail my stop enough and got stopped out overnight, gaining only a fraction of what I could have made. So that was fresh on my mind as well. Anyways, on the 60 minute it looks very attractive to be long. Flag pattern forming, and price still above support.

[Official Movie Talk Thread]

Are you suggesting that you are a criminal ? Just kidding man .

 

My favorite gangster movie must be Heat, that one was really great, also liked Gangs of New York and The Goodfellas a lot.

 

 

 

Yep, 3:10 Yuma got better reviews at Rottentomatoes though. The western genre isn't very active so there aren't many recent movies to compare it to.

Unforgiven was pretty good too btw.

 

From the movies I have recently seen my favorite is

, it's a documentary but really terrific.

 

Ah yes. Gangster movies. I watched alot of those. All the standard ones, and yes, Heat as well. For you gangster movie fans, here are some gangster movies that are either new or not well know:

 

1. Eastern Promises. New movie. About Russian gang. I liked it.

2. American Gangster. New movie. I enjoyed it. The History channel documentary on it was very good as well.

3. Cocaine Cowboys. New documentary about the gangsters of Miami. Excellen documentary. I give this one a high recommendation.

4. Blood In, Blood Out. I watched this a couple of days ago. It was on the employee recomendation rack in Blockbuster. About the Mexican gangs of East La and Prison. It had a bit of 80's corkiness to it, but I enjoyed it. Some famous modern actors in there with minor parts.

5. Amercian Me. Also about the East La ande Prison gangs. I'm still watching this one. Seems ok.

 

All these movies had the high ratings on them, like multiple quotes from critics on the DVD. I almost never rent a movie if it has no quotes from critics on the DVD.

[Eurusd 1.50000]

From time to time make sure you check the weekly and monthly charts to find S/R areas. This may help where you're at in relation to the bigger picture. This may help you find profit target and possible support areas to get in.

 

Sounds good. Thanks.

[Fxi]

Thanks James. I might do it that way. Except for the last 3rd I might put the stop a bit below break even, perhaps at 146. Depends when it hits the 160 target and market sentiment. Does it hit the target after a rate cut, as a reaction to it? That might be a stronger, more sustaineable move that might go further, perhaps 165 or more. Or does it hit the target prior to the fed meeting in anticipation of a rate cut, or due to independent China market moves? Then it might be good to take some off the table IMO ahead of the rate cut. B/C US market reaction to rate cut I think will have a significant impact on the Chinese market. Just some thoughts. Not sure how I will play it.

[Eurusd 1.50000]

It's a good entry and with higher lows showing forming an ascending triangle. This pattern show up very often, especially on intraday timeframes. Good luck. Keep the stop tight.

 

Great. Thanks.