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sergso

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Posts posted by sergso

  1. Posted

    Hello all you trading gurus.

     

    I'm looking for a website or company that I can join that will send out ETF or Stock buy/sell signals. I've looked at a few and taken a few of the trades they've recommended with fair at best results.

     

    There looks to be plenty of these sites out there. Some offer a free or discounted membership for a month. I checked out one that posted a real nice win average with gains from 80-120 percent a year. Once I got into the site I saw why they had such good numbers. They had positons open on a bunch of trades from over a year ago. I did some math and figured they would be over 100% in the whole if they sold those "turds".

     

    What I've seen is a lot of "hot air" and super slick sales pitches. My favorite motto is "a fool and his money soon part ways"..........I've ran a few of the recommended trades on a simulator account and wasn't impressed. I did run one on the SSO real money and made a nice profit.

     

    Has anyone used a site like this? If so, how'd it work? Do you have any recommendations on one that you think is good? (Of course I'd use it at my own risk) I don't have any problem paying for a monthy membership if it works. It seems like money well spent if I can get a couple/few decent trades every week or two.

     

    Any input would be greatly appreciated............Thanks

     

    My suggestion is to try to find free websites and do not pay anyone. If you make a list of 5-10 websites that occasionally provide good free signals you can do very well. Most serious bloggers are careful and avoid direct recommendations and you need to do the work yourself from the material they post. No work, no pain, no gain, no free lunch. Here are some websites that I follow:

     

    http://etfdb.com/features/

    StockTwits Blogs

    Price Action Lab Blog | Quantifying Market Price Action

    ETF, Exchange Traded Funds Research, ETF Investing | Morningstar

    Abnormal Returns

     

    and many others.

  2. Posted

    Hi everyone,

     

    I've recently created quite powerful indicator using Hitrader website community and want to share it.

    The idea is to use a portfolio of successful traders to determine a moment when to trade EURUSD. Every time if someone has EURUSD or any EUR cross long position we assign +1 to this trader and -1 in case of short one. Then we sum these numbers (50 traders) to get EURUSD Index. If it’s more than +20 we hold EURUSD long next day (one daily bar), less than -20 short. Please have a look at the attached figure. There was long on April 9, April 11, April 16, April 22, April 25 and April 30; short on April 23. So far the performance looks very good. No doubt it's just six weeks but I'm planning on getting more statistics and see how it works :)

     

    Cheers. Mark

     

    Today's darlings are the dogs of the future.:) This will work assuming the population statistics do not change constantly.

  3. Posted

    I used to use it on stocks trading alongside MACD and Stochastics, it wasnt that bad but i have to say my work used to be done without it using only MACD and stochastics ...

    Overall after my experience over the different market asset classes, i'd say fundamentals are always more important than technicals...

     

    I agree about the importance of fundamentals but it is hard for someone to know the true fundamentals.

  5. Posted

    Traders fail because they select the best system they backtest after applying data-snooping. This is very important to understand. Here are a few must read articles:

     

    JSTOR: An Error Occurred Setting Your User Cookie

     

    Data-Snooping, Technical Trading, Rule Performance and the Bootstrap

     

    Selection and Data Mining Bias in Trading System Development | Price Action Lab Blog

     

    backtesting - What are the popular methodologies to minimize data snooping? - Quantitative Finance Stack Exchange

  6. Posted

    Instead of wasting your time looking for a method or a system or whatever, learn how the auction market works. Then you'll be able to create a method of your own, one that you can trust.

     

    But are the rules fixed or they are always ahead of what you already know?

  8. Posted

    Thank you guys. I am close to quitting trading because I cannot seem to be able to find any methods that work satisfactorily for my purposes. I tried trading ETFs mainly and after two years I'm 23% down in my account and I find no point continuing. Maybe markets have changed significantly since the methods were developed. By the way yesterday I saw a post in one of the many blogs I follow about a system that was designed by a computer for SPY and outperformed the market after that but on top of that it worked well for about a dozen other ETFs. Is this possible? Is it a scam of some kind? Do you think it is possible for computers to design systems better than humans?

  10. Posted

    So what does everyone think? Do scalpers collect enough pennies throughout the day? Or do the swing traders make more compounding their position?

     

    MMS

     

    Very good scalper I heard make more money than very good swing traders but on the average the former group makes a lot less than the latter. Scalping was invented in the pits I think and now with HFT it is difficult to do it from home unless you collocate expensive hardware.

  13. Posted

    Hey Bobcollett when I say quantify I'm refering to trade in a sense that is as scientific as possible.

     

    What sparked this interest was when I stumbled across Price Action Lab Blog | Quantifying Market Price Action - However, I have 0 desire in paying absorbant amounts for a system. I want to understand price action better with the use of math

     

    Thanks. He does it seems a nice job in gratifying chance. I like very much his idea of using portfolio backtest statistics for this like in his latets post: Price Action Lab Alert for Monday, December 17, 2012 | Price Action Lab Blog

     

    I wonder is this can be automated in a way.

  14. Posted

    Currencies are a bit different than other markets.....you HAVE TO to be able to follow world news and understand how political developments affect your market...you HAVE TO be able interpret the significance of pending events....one way to do this is to head over to Forex Factory and use the economic calendar (its free)....check out each pending event and ask yourself "do I know what this event (usually a report) means to the market I trade"....if the answer to that question is "yes" usually you're good to go....the next step is to understand how events that effect one market bleed over into others....when you get to that point....chances are good you can move to other markets and make money consistently

     

    Sounds like an impossible task. What about pending but unknown events?

  16. Posted

    I'm new to trading and I have started reading books and forum posts. What do you think are the most popular methods intraday and swing traders use? For example, moving averages, oscillators, patterns, tape reading, custom algos, etc.|?

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